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L02 Evolution of Technology
The document discusses the evolution of technology, comparing it to the biological evolutionary process as described by Charles Darwin. It highlights significant technological advancements from the mainframe computer in 1947 to smartphones in 2007, emphasizing that all technology was once new. The concept of the technology life cycle is introduced, illustrating how products evolve from initial ideas to mature products through various phases of growth and market demand.
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L02 Evolution of Technology
- 1. LECTURE L02 EVOLUTION OFTECHNOLOGY
- 2. Agenda Evolution of Technology The7th Kingdom What is Technology Product Development The Long View
- 3. Reading Evolution of Technology The7th Kingdom What is Technology Product Development The Long View
- 4. The Next Wavewill be built previous waves Mainframe 1947 Minicomputer 1965 PC 1981 1995 Internet Smartphone 2007
- 5. Evolution of technologyis closely linked with the evolution of mankind Evolution
- 6. Use of technologyhave been with mankind for millions of years Evolution
- 7. Charles Darwin published OnThe Origin of Species in 1852 Evolution
- 8. Evolutionary Process Each generation breedsthe next generation, becomes and input for the next Natural selection Survival of the fittest
- 9. Samuel Butler published 1859 a letter to the editor of the Press in New Zealand, called “Darwin among the Machines” Kingdom of the machines
- 10.
- 11. Kevin Kelly: TheSeventh Kingdom
- 13. Kevin Kelly’s The 7thKingdom There are many similarities with evolution of biology and technology Both follow evolutionary process
- 14.
- 15. Is this technology? Commonobject that existed when we were born
- 16. All technology wasonce new Is this technology?
- 17. You can onlysee the evolution by looking back All technology was once new
- 18. ? And you shouldknow it will change in the future — so never dismiss a new primitive and clunky new gadget All technology was once new
- 19. All technology wasonce new What about this device?
- 20. Technology invented by Johannes Gutenbergin the 15th century Lived in Germany Was blacksmith, goldsmith and merchant The Printing Press
- 21. Gutenberg’s printing press Movabletype made of wood, pressed with ink using a screw Printed 42 lines The Printing Press
- 22. Technology in the15th century
- 24.
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- 27. Nocturne Op. 9No 2 Fr 18
- 28. Johann Sebastian Bachwould only in 1747 approve the piano
- 29. We think itis something new New technology is emotional Technology Old technology is taken for granted
- 30. Techne is greekfor art or skill Logos is greek for word, speech Technology First used by Aristotle
- 31. Technology The word “technology”was used in 1801 by Johann Beckmann (1739-1811), a German scientific author and teacher
- 32. The Effects ofGood Government, a fresco in the City Hall of Siena by Ambrogio Lorenzetti, 1338.
- 33. Kevin Kelly: WhatTechnology Wants
- 35.
- 36. Process by whichan organisation transforms labor, capital, material, and information into products and services of greater values Technology
- 41. The value youget out of a product for which you have paid some cost Product Performance
- 42. 1977 Apple II $1,298 4.000bytes memory Motorola 6502 1MHz 2007 iMac 17-inch $1,199 1.000.000.000 bytes memory Intel 2.0GHz
- 43. 2000 2010 iMac iPhone iMacG3 Mac OS 9.0.4 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory Screen - 786K pixels Storage - 30GB Hard Drive iPhone 4 iOS 4.0 1 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB Memory Screen - 614K pixels Storage - 32GB Flash Drive THE SECOND HALF OF THE CHESSBOARD
- 45. Innovation The change inthe technology
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- 48. Product Development Products thatare built based on older technologies follow a specific path from initial idea to a mature stable product
- 49. The S-curve Improvements in performance variesthroughout the life of the technology
- 50. Problem is that peoplein the R&D phase may not be right in the growth phase The S-curve
- 51. Exponential trends can becomposed of a sequence of S- curves where each curve is faster The S-curve
- 52. Exponential trends can becomposed of a sequence of S- curves where each curve is faster The S-curve
- 53. Technology Life Cycle Describesthe commercial gain of a product through the expense of research and development phase, and the financial return during its "vital life"
- 54. In the earlydays The innovators and technology enthusiasts drive the market They demand technology Small percentage of the market In the later days The pragmatists and conservatives dominate; they want solutions and convenience The big market Technology Life Cycle
- 55. The Long Viewof Technology
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- 59. 200018001600140012001000800 ComplexityofTechnology Time With all thetechnology in the last 200 years, how was life before that?
- 60. What about inthe year 79?
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- 62. The oldest bodyin history
- 64. Life was Localand Liniar
- 65. Until it becameGlobal and Exponetial
- 66. L03 Exponential World Next Pleasenote: Video Lecture — No class due to travelling