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The Future of Technology Melanie Swan Research Associate MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] http://www.melanieswan.com Technology And Society Committee November 11, 2008 Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/slideshows
Summary General framework for understanding and assessing science and technology change is needed Growth paradigms are not just linear and exponential, most importantly they are discontinuous The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is immersing other areas in exponential and discontinuous change Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet Image: Fausto de Martini
Paradigms of growth and change Linear  Economic, demographic, life span phenomena Tivo wedge: sustainable new category Exponential  Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, iPhone applications Discontinuous  Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, globalization  Impossible to predict Rapid transition time and doubling capability Adjacent technology advances Exponential Discontinuous Linear
Extensibility of Moore’s Law Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/ Penryn 45 nm, 410-800m transistors Core 2  65 nm, 291m transistors Transistors per microprocessor
Evolution of computing Sources: ITRS Semiconductor Roadmap, http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf,  http://www.intel.com/technology/architecture-silicon/32nm/index.htm,  http://www.siliconvalleysleuth.com/2007/01/a_look_inside_i.html 32 nm 2009, 22 nm 2011, molecular manufacturing needed for 10 nm  2009 Intel Penryn 45nm high-k and metal gate chip Metal Gate High-k Insulator Silicon substrate Drain Source
Future of computing Current model extensibility Linear, von Neumann Parallel Cloud, grid, distributed Biological models Novel models Traditional model Quantum Optical computing Cell broadband engine Liquid computer New materials 3D chip stacking Molecular electronics Solar transistors DNA computing Biosensors Cellular colonies Bacterial intelligence New paradigm discovery
Tool complexity growing Contemporary lab tools increasingly dependent on software Analytic layer for modeling, simulation, statistics, informatics Flow cytometer Gas chromatograph Mass spectrometer Allen array telescope Scanning tunneling electron microscope Protein crystallographer Hardware Software: operating Software: analytics
What might be the next Internet? Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Virtual environments New computing models Robotics Brain-computer interfaces Personalized medicine Affordable space launch 3D printing, fabbing Synthetic biology Alternative energy Mobile applications
Biology evolves from art to information science to engineering problem Genomics DNA Sequencing DNA Synthesizing  Variation: SNPs Proteomics, other “-omics” Sources: http://www.economist.com/background/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7854314,  http://www.molsci.org/%7Ercarlson/Carlson_Pace_and_Prolif.pdf  DNA Synthesizer Variation: SNP
Life sciences advances Personalized medicine  Direct-to-consumer patient empowerment Genomic testing Health social networks  Niche physicians Synthetic biology Model, simulate and build  Personalized medicine Health social networks PartsRegistry.org iGEM competition BioSpice.org SimTK.org
Extending lifespan and healthspan Aging is a multidisciplinary pathology Aubrey de Grey: Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS)  Nucleic and mitochondrial mutations  Intracellular and extracellular junk Cell loss and senescence  Extracellular crosslinks Solutions and escape velocity Mutation anti-suppressors Bioremediation Cell strengthening Real age estimation tests U.S. Life Expectancy, 1850 – 2050e 83 77 69 50 39 http://www.realage.com   http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/CalcForm.html Research to repair and reverse the damage of aging The Methuselah Foundation Source: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html  Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/population-health/variable-379.html
Molecular nanotechnology  3D atomically precise placement  Scale Human hair: 80,000 nm Limit of human vision: 10,000 nm Virus: 50 nm, DNA: 2 nm Atom 0.1 nm  Energy applications Images: http://www.imm.org, http://www.rfreitas.com, http://www.foresight.org, http://www.e-drexler.org Tools, mechanosynthesis validation needed Mills, motors Microscopy Scanning tunneling electron microscope  Molecular synthesizer MEMS ratchet Molecular mill Molecular motor Molecular scaffold Microgripper
Arms race for the future of intelligence 1 Source: Top 500, June 2008, http://www.top500.org/lists/2008/06, http://www.top500.org/system/8968, http://www.crn.com/hardware/208403186 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html Machine Human IBM Roadrunner 1 petaflop/s (>1,000 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1 Unlimited operational/build knowledge Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months Linear, von Neumann architecture Understands rigid language Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection) Metal chassis, easy to backup An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2   Limited operational/build knowledge Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations Massively parallel architecture Understands flexible, fuzzy language  General purpose problem solving, works well in new situations Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible
Status of intelligence research Whole brain emulation (IBM, Oxford) Neuroimaging tissue volumes Brain-computer interfaces Robotics Artificial intelligence (Narrow) DARPA, corporate  (Strong) startups Leonardo IBM Rat Cortical Column Brain Emulation Roadmap Mouse brain block and cortex slice Emotiv brain computer interface gaming helmet
Virtual environments Data visualization, simulation and 3D data display  Reality capture  Virtual worlds “ Serious” platform Teleconferencing Green data centers AI training Wild Divine NTT’s Aromatic Display IBM’s Virtual NOC LAX Air Traffic Data 3D Stock Charts Heads-up Display Data Overlay Blended Reality Conference Google Earth GPS Life-logging rig
Physics and space Physics Space commercialization SpaceX Armadillo Aerospace Google Lunar X Prize Virgin Galactic Space elevator Chang’e-1 Space Elevator and Climber Competition SpaceX Spaceport America, NM Google Lunar X Prize Space-based Power Virgin Galactic Armadillo Aerospace
What might be the next Internet? Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Virtual environments New computing models Robotics Brain-computer interfaces Personalized medicine Affordable space launch 3D printing, fabbing Synthetic biology Alternative energy Mobile applications
Summary General framework for understanding and assessing science and technology change is needed Growth paradigms are not just linear and exponential, most importantly they are discontinuous The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is immersing other areas in exponential and discontinuous change Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet
Thank you Melanie Swan Research Associate MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] http://www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/slideshows

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Future of Technology - Nov 2008 update

  • 1. The Future of Technology Melanie Swan Research Associate MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] http://www.melanieswan.com Technology And Society Committee November 11, 2008 Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/slideshows
  • 2. Summary General framework for understanding and assessing science and technology change is needed Growth paradigms are not just linear and exponential, most importantly they are discontinuous The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is immersing other areas in exponential and discontinuous change Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet Image: Fausto de Martini
  • 3. Paradigms of growth and change Linear Economic, demographic, life span phenomena Tivo wedge: sustainable new category Exponential Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, iPhone applications Discontinuous Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, globalization Impossible to predict Rapid transition time and doubling capability Adjacent technology advances Exponential Discontinuous Linear
  • 4. Extensibility of Moore’s Law Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/ Penryn 45 nm, 410-800m transistors Core 2 65 nm, 291m transistors Transistors per microprocessor
  • 5. Evolution of computing Sources: ITRS Semiconductor Roadmap, http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf, http://www.intel.com/technology/architecture-silicon/32nm/index.htm, http://www.siliconvalleysleuth.com/2007/01/a_look_inside_i.html 32 nm 2009, 22 nm 2011, molecular manufacturing needed for 10 nm 2009 Intel Penryn 45nm high-k and metal gate chip Metal Gate High-k Insulator Silicon substrate Drain Source
  • 6. Future of computing Current model extensibility Linear, von Neumann Parallel Cloud, grid, distributed Biological models Novel models Traditional model Quantum Optical computing Cell broadband engine Liquid computer New materials 3D chip stacking Molecular electronics Solar transistors DNA computing Biosensors Cellular colonies Bacterial intelligence New paradigm discovery
  • 7. Tool complexity growing Contemporary lab tools increasingly dependent on software Analytic layer for modeling, simulation, statistics, informatics Flow cytometer Gas chromatograph Mass spectrometer Allen array telescope Scanning tunneling electron microscope Protein crystallographer Hardware Software: operating Software: analytics
  • 8. What might be the next Internet? Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Virtual environments New computing models Robotics Brain-computer interfaces Personalized medicine Affordable space launch 3D printing, fabbing Synthetic biology Alternative energy Mobile applications
  • 9. Biology evolves from art to information science to engineering problem Genomics DNA Sequencing DNA Synthesizing Variation: SNPs Proteomics, other “-omics” Sources: http://www.economist.com/background/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7854314, http://www.molsci.org/%7Ercarlson/Carlson_Pace_and_Prolif.pdf DNA Synthesizer Variation: SNP
  • 10. Life sciences advances Personalized medicine Direct-to-consumer patient empowerment Genomic testing Health social networks Niche physicians Synthetic biology Model, simulate and build Personalized medicine Health social networks PartsRegistry.org iGEM competition BioSpice.org SimTK.org
  • 11. Extending lifespan and healthspan Aging is a multidisciplinary pathology Aubrey de Grey: Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS) Nucleic and mitochondrial mutations Intracellular and extracellular junk Cell loss and senescence Extracellular crosslinks Solutions and escape velocity Mutation anti-suppressors Bioremediation Cell strengthening Real age estimation tests U.S. Life Expectancy, 1850 – 2050e 83 77 69 50 39 http://www.realage.com http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/CalcForm.html Research to repair and reverse the damage of aging The Methuselah Foundation Source: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/population-health/variable-379.html
  • 12. Molecular nanotechnology 3D atomically precise placement Scale Human hair: 80,000 nm Limit of human vision: 10,000 nm Virus: 50 nm, DNA: 2 nm Atom 0.1 nm Energy applications Images: http://www.imm.org, http://www.rfreitas.com, http://www.foresight.org, http://www.e-drexler.org Tools, mechanosynthesis validation needed Mills, motors Microscopy Scanning tunneling electron microscope Molecular synthesizer MEMS ratchet Molecular mill Molecular motor Molecular scaffold Microgripper
  • 13. Arms race for the future of intelligence 1 Source: Top 500, June 2008, http://www.top500.org/lists/2008/06, http://www.top500.org/system/8968, http://www.crn.com/hardware/208403186 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html Machine Human IBM Roadrunner 1 petaflop/s (>1,000 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1 Unlimited operational/build knowledge Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months Linear, von Neumann architecture Understands rigid language Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection) Metal chassis, easy to backup An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 Limited operational/build knowledge Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations Massively parallel architecture Understands flexible, fuzzy language General purpose problem solving, works well in new situations Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible
  • 14. Status of intelligence research Whole brain emulation (IBM, Oxford) Neuroimaging tissue volumes Brain-computer interfaces Robotics Artificial intelligence (Narrow) DARPA, corporate (Strong) startups Leonardo IBM Rat Cortical Column Brain Emulation Roadmap Mouse brain block and cortex slice Emotiv brain computer interface gaming helmet
  • 15. Virtual environments Data visualization, simulation and 3D data display Reality capture Virtual worlds “ Serious” platform Teleconferencing Green data centers AI training Wild Divine NTT’s Aromatic Display IBM’s Virtual NOC LAX Air Traffic Data 3D Stock Charts Heads-up Display Data Overlay Blended Reality Conference Google Earth GPS Life-logging rig
  • 16. Physics and space Physics Space commercialization SpaceX Armadillo Aerospace Google Lunar X Prize Virgin Galactic Space elevator Chang’e-1 Space Elevator and Climber Competition SpaceX Spaceport America, NM Google Lunar X Prize Space-based Power Virgin Galactic Armadillo Aerospace
  • 17. What might be the next Internet? Artificial intelligence Molecular nanotechnology Anti-aging therapies Virtual environments New computing models Robotics Brain-computer interfaces Personalized medicine Affordable space launch 3D printing, fabbing Synthetic biology Alternative energy Mobile applications
  • 18. Summary General framework for understanding and assessing science and technology change is needed Growth paradigms are not just linear and exponential, most importantly they are discontinuous The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is immersing other areas in exponential and discontinuous change Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet
  • 19. Thank you Melanie Swan Research Associate MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] http://www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/slideshows