The document discusses the need for photovoltaics due to rising global energy consumption, global warming from fossil fuel usage, and the inability to significantly reduce electricity consumption in the near future. It outlines that total world energy consumption is increasing by around 4% annually, with coal, oil and gas being major contributors to global warming. The future of energy lies in developing renewable sources like hydro, wind, and solar photovoltaics, with these three needing to be implemented together to address intermittent power generation and storage issues. Thin-film silicon photovoltaics are presented as a promising technology for renewable energy.

2.
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
2
v Part
1
Energy
and
the
need
for
Photovoltaics
v Part
2
HIT
solar
cells/
modules

3. v Part
1
Energy
and
the
need
for
Photovoltaics
-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐
1. Total
World
Energy
ConsumpAon
2. Global
Warming
4. Is
it
Possible
To
Reduce
Electricity
ConsumpAon?
5. Electricity
used
for
more
and
more
tasks
!
7. PV
Market
SituaAon
8. Choice
of
PV
Technology
for
2025
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
3

4. Total
World
Energy
ConsumpAon
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
4
Source:
EPFL
Press/PPUR
«
Guide
de
la
technique
»,
Vol.
2
«
L’énergie
»
Average
Yearly
Increase
of
Energy
ConsumpAon
4%
4.1%
2%
Coal
Petrol
Gas
Hydro
+
Nuclear
only
a
small
fracAon
Start
of
Petrol
Age
The
use
of
coal,
petrol
and
gas
for
energy
supply
is
one
of
the
main
causes
for
global
warming

5. Sources
of
Global
Warming
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
5
Burning
of
coal,
natural
gas,
and
oil
for
electricity
and
heat
§ fossil
fuels
burned
on-­‐site
at
faciliKes
for
energy
• emissions
from
chemical,
metallurgical,
&
mineral
transf.
processes
not
associated
with
energy
consumpKon.
DeforestaKon,
land
clearing
for
agriculture,
and
fires
or
decay
of
peat
soils
Management
of
agricultural
soils
livestock,
rice
producKon,
and
biomass
burning.
fossil
fuels
burned
for
road,
rail,
air,
and
marine
transportaKon
burning
fuels
for
heat
in
buildings
or
cooking
in
homes
Source:
IPCC
(2007)

6. Sources
of
Global
Warming
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
6
CO2
from
Energy
Supply
Source:
IEA,
Key
World
Energy
StaAsAcs
(2012)

7. ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
7
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Petroleum
Coal
à
Two
lines
of
acAon
1. Reduce
Electricity
ConsumpAon,
2. Promote:
Hydro,
Wind
and
Solar

8. Avoid
Global
Warming
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
8

9. ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
9
Avoid
Nuclear
Catastrophes

10. ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
10
à
Two
lines
of
acAon
1. Reduce
Electricity
ConsumpAon,
2. Promote:
Hydro,
Wind
and
Solar
Photovoltaic

11. Reduce
Electricity
ConsumpAon?
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
11
TWh/year
20’000
16’000
12’000
8’000
World
Electricity
ConsumpAon
conAnues
to
increase
by
4
to
5
%
per
year.
Because:
1) Emerging
Countries
(China,
India,..)
show
very
strong
increase
2) Electricity
is
being
used
for
more
and
more
tasks
Approx.
5%
/year

12. Reduce
Electricity
ConsumpAon?
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
12
It
will
not
be
possible
in
the
next
50
years
to
globally
reduce
electricity
consumpAon
Electricity
ConsumpAon
is
NOW
Growing
at
a
fast
rate
1) Electricity
use
is
spreading
in
developing
and
emerging
countries
2) Even
in
Industrialized
countries
Electricity
used
for
more
and
more
tasks
Example:
Switzerland
Hydropower
From
Rivers
Nuclear
power
GeneraKon
Hydropower
from
Storage
Lakes

13. Three
main
forms
of
renewable
electricity
for
the
next
decade
1) Hydroelectricity
Provides
basic
generaAon
capacity
Hydroelectric
storage
lakes
ideal
for
storing
current
2) Wind
Energy
Provides
current
during
windy
season
(Switzerland:
Autumn,
Winter)
(Korea:………)
3) Solar
Photovoltaic
Provides
current
during
sunny
season
(Switzerland:
Summer)
(Korea:………)
These
three
forms
of
energy
have
to
be
developed
together,
in
order
to
master
the
storage
problems
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
13

14. ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
14
Energy
Form
Storage
Regularity
LocaAon
Small
InstallaAons
CiAzen
ParAcipaAon
Hydro
Storage
Lake
yes
yes
Specific
Possible,
but
costly
indirect
Hydro
River
no
yes
Specific
Difficult
indirect
Wind
no
no
Widespread
Not
feasible
indirect
Solar
no
no
Everywhere
Yes,
easy
Yes,
direct
Three
main
forms
of
renewable
electricity
for
the
next
decade
Solar
Photovoltaic
is
the
only
one
of
these
three
energy
forms,
where
small,
individually-­‐
owned
installaAons
are
possible
and
can
be
set
up
almost
everywhere
–
it
will
therefore
have
to
contribute
the
majority
of
capacity
increase
during
the
next
decade.

15. World
Annual
ProducAon
of
Hydroelectric
Current
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
15
OCDE
China
Africa
EX-URSS
Asia
(w/o China)
Europe (non-OCDE)
South America
à In
most
countries
hydroelectric
power
has
reached
a
stable
plateau
There
is
likle
scope
for
further
increase:
à We
need
Wind
and
Solar
Electricity
à In
Korea
there
is
sAll
scope
for
increase

16. ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
16
Source:
TN
ConsulAng
Zürich
à
During
60
years,
development
was
very
slow,
only
in
1950
did
hydroelectric
power
«take
off»
A
similar
long
«incubaAon
period»
should
be
expected
for
Photovoltaics
Stable
plateau
Hydroelectric
Power
in
Switzerland

17. 0
100
200
300
400
500
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
SérTotal
Electricity
ProducAon
in
Korea
(hydroelectric
power
is
negligible)
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
17
.
Source:
Korea
Electric
Power
CorporaAon
-­‐50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Séries1
Séries2
Séries3
Thermal
Hydro
Nuclear
High
potenAal
for
increasing
hydroelectric
current
generaAon
in
Korea
?

18. Wind
Energy
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
18

19. Wind
Energy
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
19

20. ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
20
Solar
Photovoltaic

21. ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
21
x
2014:
50
GWp
Source:
Bloomberg
Report
Sept
2014
Source:
European
Photovoltaic
Industries
AssociaAon
(EPIA),
“Global
Market
Outlook
for
Photovoltaics
2013-­‐2017”
(take
the
“policy-­‐driven
scenario”)
Solar
Photovoltaic

22. To
solve
the
storage
problem
all
3
forms
are
needed:
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
22
Three
main
forms
of
renewable
electricity
for
the
next
decade
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(1+:HK*'LHM*@'
① HYDROELECTRIC
POWER,
where
storage
lakes
will
provide
basic
storage
② WIND
POWER
to
provide
current
during
the
night
+
windy
Winter
months
③ SOLAR
PHOTOVOLTAICS
for
summer
and
sunny
days
CombinaAon
of
Solar
and
Wind
avoids
the
need
for
seasonal
storage

23. IMT
INSTITUT DE
MICROTECHNIQUE
NEUCHÂTEL
The Photovoltaic Market Situation
ARVIND SHAH Seoul, 18th Sept 2014 "The future of
thin-film silicon PV"
Module Production Volume Trends
23
Nuclear Reactors, supply now 10% of the World's Electricity , i.e. 2500 TWh/year.
By 2025, PV Modules will be able to supply the same amount of Electricity.
Annual PV module production will then be 600 GWp
Arvind Shah, A.N. Tiwari, SOLMAT 119 (2013) iii-iv – Editor's Preface to the Special Issue on Thin-film solar cells
2025

24. The
Photovoltaic
Market
SituaAon
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
24
0.1
1
10
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Module
Price
in
USA
$/Wp
Year
Séries1
Expon.
(Séries1)
Price
crash
due
to
overcapacity
Module
Price
in
(USA)
$/Wp
(not
corrected
for
infla4on)
Source:
1985-­‐2010
Data
from
Navigant
(Paula
Mints)
Expected
Price
For
2020

25. IMT
INSTITUT DE
MICROTECHNIQUE
NEUCHÂTEL ARVIND SHAH Seoul, 18th Sept 2014 "The future of
thin-film silicon PV"
Source:
EPIA:
“Global
Market
Outlook
for
Photovoltaics”
(published
June
2013)
End of
overcapacity:
Hopefully in 2017
Global PV Production Capacity versus annual PV market
YEAR 2012
Factor ~2
overcapacity
16
The Photovoltaic Market Situation

26. ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
IN 2012 ALL TYPES of Thin-film solar cells “went crashing down”
Thin
Film
2012–2016:
Technologies,
Markets
and
Strategies
for
Survival
–
MJ
Shiao,
Senior
Analyst,
Solar
Markets
|
GTM
Research
26
The Photovoltaic Market Crash

27. Harry
Truman
Energy Payback Times (EPBT)
(this is an aspect which will play an increasing role in the future)
2010
AssumpAons:
• 1700
kWh/
m2
solar
radiaAon
(Southern
Europe)
• OpAmal
module
inclinaAon
Source:
Mariska
deWild
Scholten,
European
PV
Conference
2011
:
u Modules
produced with
Chinese
polysilicon
à slightly
higher EPBT
values,
à much higher
carbon
footprints
u Future thin-film
silicon modules
with improved
laminates
should have
strongly
reduced values
of EPBT

28. IMT
INSTITUT DE
MICROTECHNIQUE
NEUCHÂTEL ARVIND SHAH Seoul, 18th Sept 2014 "The future of
thin-film silicon PV"
In 2025, we should be producing 600 GWp PV Modules
At that moment we may expect:
a) Chineses module produecers wiil pay a higher Electricity
price than they pay today ((3 to 4 Eurocents/kWh)
b) Cost of polysilicon ingots would have increased again
c) Raw material prices and availability will increasingls
influence Photovoltaic Module Prices
d) The following raw materials will be in short supply:
Ag, In, Ga, Te…….
àThe following cells will be of particular interest:
ü Crystalline silicon wafer-based cells with low
wafer thickness and high eficiencies
ü Thin-film solar cells
28
Choice of PV Technology for 2025

29. IMT
INSTITUT DE
MICROTECHNIQUE
NEUCHÂTEL ARVIND SHAH Seoul, 18th Sept 2014 "The future of
thin-film silicon PV"
In 2025, we should be producing 600 GWp PV Modules
And it will have to be from one of the 4 known materials:
29
Choice of PV Technology for 2025
No
.
Material Module
Efficiency
(stabilized)
Advantage Drawback
present Prediction
2025
1a c-Si
high eff.
18% 22% High efficiency η
Abundant materials
High
Production energy (PE)
1b c-Si
«usual»
15% 18% Quite High η
Abundant materials
Very High
Production energy (PE)
2 tf-Si 9% 14% Abundant materials
Ideal for BIPV, low PE
Low efficiency η
3 CIGS 10% 15% Moderate η
Ideal for BIPV, low PE
Ga rare
4 CdTe 10% 15% Moderate η
Ideal for BIPV, low PE
Cd toxic, Te rare

30. ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
30
v Part
2
HIT
cells
and
modules
1. c-­‐Si/a-­‐Si
HeterojuncAon
cells
(HIT
cells):
Sanyo
Results
2. c-­‐Si/a-­‐Si
HeterojuncAon
cells
(HIT
cells):
Neuchâtel
Results

31. HIT
solar
cells/modules
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
31
HIT
cell
efficiency
record
is
24.7%
(M.
Taguchi
et
al.,
IEEE
J.
OF
PV,
Vol.
4,
JAN
2014,
pp.
96-­‐99)

32. 98 I
Fig. 3. Approaches for achieving higher conversion efficiency in HIT solar
cells.
conductivity and the optical transmittance of TCO layers at the
same time by designing the deposition process and optimizing
Fig. 4. I–V
µm thicknes
Technology)
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
32
HIT
solar
cells/modules
Sanyo/Panasonic
Results
M.
Taguchi
et
al.,
IEEE
J.
OF
PV,
Vol.
4,
JAN
2014,
p.
98)

33. IEEE JOURNAL OF PHOTOVOLTAICS, VOL. 4, NO. 1, JANUARY 2014
nversion efficiency in HIT solar
ance of TCO layers at the
n process and optimizing
lity in our TCO films step
ng the carrier density and
near infrared region [11].
sults and obtained a spec-
Fig. 4. I–V characteristics of the 24.7% efficiency an HIT solar cell with 98-
µm thickness at the R&D stage (certified by Advanced Industrial Science and
Technology). The cell is with a silver back reflector to avoid any fluctuation of
the reflection with the measurement stage.
TABLE II
I–V CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HIT SOLAR CELLS FABRICATED
WITH 98-µM-THICK AND 151-µM-THICK WAFERS (R&D STAGE)
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
33
HIT
solar
cells/modules
Sanyo/Panasonic
Results
24.7%
efficiency
obtained
for
a100cm2
lab
cell
with
a
98μm
thick
wafer

34. Roth
&
Rau
Research
SA:
Equipment
to
produce
HIT
Modules
at<
0.6
€/Wp.
Ag
uAlizaAon
lower:
• For
monofacial
cells:
<40mg
vs
>200
mg/6’’
wafer
• For
bifacial:
<100
mg
vs
>400
mg/6’’
wafer
• Done
by
regular
screen
prinKng
No
Busbars
“Smart
Wire”
Method
used
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
34
HIT
solar
cells/modules
Neuchâtel
Results
From: Strahm Benjamin <Benjamin.Strahm@roth-rau.ch>
Subject: HJT status
Date: August 26, 2014 12:18:53 PM GMT+02:00
To: SHAH Arvind <Arvind.Shah@unine.ch>
Cc: DESPEISSE Matthieu <Matthieu.DESPEISSE@csem.ch>
2 Attachments, 1.9 MB
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35. HIT
solar
cells/modules
Neuchâtel
Results
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
35
“Smart
Wire”
Technology
An
invenAon
of
Meyer-­‐Burger
Used
in
Neuchâtel
modules
Foil-­‐wire
electrode
The
foils
and
the
wires
are
connected
alternately
(the
wires
pass
over
the
top
on
the
first
piece
and
underneath
the
foil
on
the
next)
to
form
the
coil
with
the
foil-­‐wire
electrode.
Cell
connecAon
The
solar
cells
are
linked
by
means
of
the
wire-­‐
foil
electrode
to
form
a
string.
The
electrical
interconnecKon
of
the
string
only
takes
place
during
the
laminaKng
process.
EncapsulaAon
In
order
to
protect
the
cells
from
environmental
influences,
the
individual
layers
are
bonded
together
under
vacuum,
using
pressure
and
heat,
to
form
the
final
solar
module.
The
electrical
connecKon
takes
place
during
the
laminaKng
process
without
the
addiKon
of
flux
Electrical
connecKon
at
low
temperature
reducess
brilleness
of
the
cells.

36. • Roth
&
Rau
Research
SA
demonstrated
23.1%GT(*)
efficiency
on
156mm
CZ
wafers
with
a
BussBar
less
design.
•
23.5%GT
efficiency
has
been
demonstrated
on
Float
Zone
(FZ)
156mm
wafers.
• process
has
been
transferred
successfully
to
HELiAPECVD
and
HELiAPVD
mass
producKon
plaporms
with
a
measured
efficiency
of
22.7%GT
for
156mm
cells.
ARVIND
SHAH
Seoul,
18th
Sept
2014
"The
future
of
thin-­‐film
silicon
PV"
36
HIT
solar
cells/modules
Neuchâtel
Results

37. IMT
INSTITUT DE
MICROTECHNIQUE
NEUCHÂTEL
ARVIND SHAH Seoul, 18th Sept 2014 "The future of
thin-film silicon PV"
37