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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                             9th January 2013
         Indices *             Close          % Chg.                Markets find support at lower levels
 BSE SENSEX                    19742.52             0.26
 S&P CNX NIFTY                  6001.70             0.22
                                                              Mirroring the inconclusive global market cues the domestic
                                                              markets witnessed a flat opening. Sustained selling pressure
 NIFTY JAN 13 FUT.              6043.30             -0.08
                                                              and profit taking was witnessed in the morning trade as
 India VIX                        13.27             -4.66
                                                              markets traded with losses. However, the markets managed
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                        to bounce back from lower levels in the afternoon trade on
                 Level 1       Level 2         Level 3        back of buying support. The markets showed no signs of
Support           5966          5885            5816
                                                              weakness as follow p buying support emerged on the
                                                              bourses. The markets ended the day with modest gains to
Resistance        6158          6313            6358
                                                              close near the highs for the day. Nifty managed to close
 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                         above psychologically important 6000 level. The top gainers
50 Day SMA                     5798.38        ◄Positive       for the day were Rel. Infra, HDFC, ITC, BHEL, Powergrid,
100 Day SMA                    5661.77
                                                              Cipla, SBI, ONGC, Bharti Airtel and Sun Pharma.
200 Day SMA                    5404.30
                                                              Technically, the market breadth remained negative
   Market Breadth *             BSE             NSE           amidst lower volumes. The prevailing technical positive
Advances                            1451               502
                                                              conditions helped the markets find support at lower
Declines                            1478               657
                                                              levels. The RSI has moved above its average. The MACD
                                                              is already placed above its average. Moreover, the MACD
Same                                 142                 53
                                                              and KST are also placed in the positive territory. The
Total                               3071             1212
                                                              Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA
A/D Ratio                        0.98 : 1          0.76 : 1   and 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains
             Volume (Lacs Shares)         *                   placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the
                                                              later being called the ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These
               08/01/13        07/01/13        % Chg.
                                                              positive conditions are likely to help the markets witness
BSE                    3160         4617            -31.56
                                                              buying support at lower levels. However, the prevailing
NSE                    7709         8922            -13.59    technical negatives still hold good and are likely to
Total                 10869       13539             -19.72    weigh on the market sentiment at higher levels. The KST
                                                              and Stochastic are placed below their respective
             Turnover ( ` Crores)         *                   averages. Moreover, the negative divergence pattern
               08/01/13        07/01/13        % Chg.         formed on the Nifty still holds good and remains a
BSE                  2705.16     2648.82              2.13    concern. These negative technical conditions would lead
NSE              11899.99       12364.38             -3.76    to selling pressure and profit taking especially at higher
NSE F&O         101905.87       76061.97            33.98     levels. Though thee +DI line is placed above the –DI line
Total           116511.02       91075.17            27.93     but has slipped below the 30 level; indicating buyers are
                                                              booking profits at regular intervals. The market
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)            *              sentiment remains cautious as Nifty struggles around
               08/01/13        07/01/13        % Chg.         the 6000 level. Now it is important that the Nifty sustains
Index Fut.           239065      154359             54.88     above the 6000 level for it to test the 6135 resistance
Stock Fut.           473882      484381              -2.17    level. In the meanwhile the markets would take cues from
Index Opt.        2302006       1489108             54.59
                                                              the forthcoming quarterly results, global markets, Rupee
                                                              and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed
Stock Opt.           255816      252693               1.24
                                                              at 5966, 5885, 5816 and 5747. The Nifty faces resistance at
Total             3270769       2380541             34.28
                                                              6158, 6313 and 6358 levels.
NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE


Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                   Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in


                                                                   Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                   www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                                   Stop
                                                    Initiation      Stop           Loss
       Stock             Close          Action        Price        Loss *           (%)           Target          Target (%)   Remarks
Bharti Airtel             330.30    Buy Above           331.00      326.50           1.36             341               3.02
BHEL                      243.90    Buy Above           245.00      240.50           1.84             255               4.08
Cipla                 429.50   Buy Above          430.00    424.00                   1.40             443               3.02
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.



                                                              Intra-day Resistance                           Intra-day Support
       Indices              Close         Pivot Point        R1       R2         R3                   S1            S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                     19743               19712     19792      19841             19971        19663           19583     19454
S&P CNX NIFTY                    6002               5991         6018       6034           6076            5975         5948      5906
NIFTY JAN 13 FUT.                6043               6010         6027       6010           6010            6027         6010      6010




                                                 Stocks To Watch Out Today
Aban, AB Nuvo, Bharti Airtel, BHEL, Cipla, Dr. Reddys, Exide, GMR Infra, Godrej Inds; HDFC, IBRealestate, Idea, IRB Infra,
ITC, Jain Irrigation, JP Power, M&M, Mphasis, OFSS, ONGC, Pantaloon Retail, Petronet, Powergrid, RCom; Rel. Infra,
Renuka, SCI, Sun Pharma, Syndicate Bank, UCO Bank, Vijaya Bank, Voltas, Yes Bank
Ambuja Cement, Axis Bank, Bajaj Auto, Bata, Bharat Forge, Canara Bank, CBI, Dabur, Federal Bank, GAIL, GSPL, Hero
Motocorp, Jubilant Foods, LIC Hsg; L&T, OBC, PFC, PNB, PTC, Punj Lloyd, Ranbaxy, Raymond, REC, Rel. Capital, Reliance
Sesa Goa, Siemens, Sintex, Sterlite, Suzlon, Tata Comm; Titan, United Spirits, Ultratech Cemco



                                                            Keynote Capitals Ltd.
                The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                           www.keynotecapitals.com
NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average




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                                                       Keynote Capitals Ltd.
          The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                      www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report for 090113

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 9th January 2013 Indices * Close % Chg. Markets find support at lower levels BSE SENSEX 19742.52 0.26 S&P CNX NIFTY 6001.70 0.22 Mirroring the inconclusive global market cues the domestic markets witnessed a flat opening. Sustained selling pressure NIFTY JAN 13 FUT. 6043.30 -0.08 and profit taking was witnessed in the morning trade as India VIX 13.27 -4.66 markets traded with losses. However, the markets managed S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels to bounce back from lower levels in the afternoon trade on Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 back of buying support. The markets showed no signs of Support 5966 5885 5816 weakness as follow p buying support emerged on the bourses. The markets ended the day with modest gains to Resistance 6158 6313 6358 close near the highs for the day. Nifty managed to close Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY above psychologically important 6000 level. The top gainers 50 Day SMA 5798.38 ◄Positive for the day were Rel. Infra, HDFC, ITC, BHEL, Powergrid, 100 Day SMA 5661.77 Cipla, SBI, ONGC, Bharti Airtel and Sun Pharma. 200 Day SMA 5404.30 Technically, the market breadth remained negative Market Breadth * BSE NSE amidst lower volumes. The prevailing technical positive Advances 1451 502 conditions helped the markets find support at lower Declines 1478 657 levels. The RSI has moved above its average. The MACD is already placed above its average. Moreover, the MACD Same 142 53 and KST are also placed in the positive territory. The Total 3071 1212 Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA A/D Ratio 0.98 : 1 0.76 : 1 and 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains Volume (Lacs Shares) * placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the later being called the ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These 08/01/13 07/01/13 % Chg. positive conditions are likely to help the markets witness BSE 3160 4617 -31.56 buying support at lower levels. However, the prevailing NSE 7709 8922 -13.59 technical negatives still hold good and are likely to Total 10869 13539 -19.72 weigh on the market sentiment at higher levels. The KST and Stochastic are placed below their respective Turnover ( ` Crores) * averages. Moreover, the negative divergence pattern 08/01/13 07/01/13 % Chg. formed on the Nifty still holds good and remains a BSE 2705.16 2648.82 2.13 concern. These negative technical conditions would lead NSE 11899.99 12364.38 -3.76 to selling pressure and profit taking especially at higher NSE F&O 101905.87 76061.97 33.98 levels. Though thee +DI line is placed above the –DI line Total 116511.02 91075.17 27.93 but has slipped below the 30 level; indicating buyers are booking profits at regular intervals. The market F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * sentiment remains cautious as Nifty struggles around 08/01/13 07/01/13 % Chg. the 6000 level. Now it is important that the Nifty sustains Index Fut. 239065 154359 54.88 above the 6000 level for it to test the 6135 resistance Stock Fut. 473882 484381 -2.17 level. In the meanwhile the markets would take cues from Index Opt. 2302006 1489108 54.59 the forthcoming quarterly results, global markets, Rupee and the crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed Stock Opt. 255816 252693 1.24 at 5966, 5885, 5816 and 5747. The Nifty faces resistance at Total 3270769 2380541 34.28 6158, 6313 and 6358 levels. NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target Target (%) Remarks Bharti Airtel 330.30 Buy Above 331.00 326.50 1.36 341 3.02 BHEL 243.90 Buy Above 245.00 240.50 1.84 255 4.08 Cipla 429.50 Buy Above 430.00 424.00 1.40 443 3.02 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 19743 19712 19792 19841 19971 19663 19583 19454 S&P CNX NIFTY 6002 5991 6018 6034 6076 5975 5948 5906 NIFTY JAN 13 FUT. 6043 6010 6027 6010 6010 6027 6010 6010 Stocks To Watch Out Today Aban, AB Nuvo, Bharti Airtel, BHEL, Cipla, Dr. Reddys, Exide, GMR Infra, Godrej Inds; HDFC, IBRealestate, Idea, IRB Infra, ITC, Jain Irrigation, JP Power, M&M, Mphasis, OFSS, ONGC, Pantaloon Retail, Petronet, Powergrid, RCom; Rel. Infra, Renuka, SCI, Sun Pharma, Syndicate Bank, UCO Bank, Vijaya Bank, Voltas, Yes Bank Ambuja Cement, Axis Bank, Bajaj Auto, Bata, Bharat Forge, Canara Bank, CBI, Dabur, Federal Bank, GAIL, GSPL, Hero Motocorp, Jubilant Foods, LIC Hsg; L&T, OBC, PFC, PNB, PTC, Punj Lloyd, Ranbaxy, Raymond, REC, Rel. Capital, Reliance Sesa Goa, Siemens, Sintex, Sterlite, Suzlon, Tata Comm; Titan, United Spirits, Ultratech Cemco Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com