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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                            10th January 2013
         Indices *             Close          % Chg.                               Markets listless
 BSE SENSEX                    19666.59             -0.38
 S&P CNX NIFTY                  5971.50             -0.50
                                                              Mirroring the weak global market cues the domestic markets
                                                              witnessed a flat opening. The markets managed to move
 NIFTY JAN 13 FUT.              5998.75             -0.74
                                                              higher on back of selective buying support. However, lack of
 India VIX                        13.32             0.37
                                                              follow up buying support at higher levels saw the markets
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                        come off the highs for the day. The over all trend remained
                 Level 1       Level 2         Level 3        lackluster and listless. Sustained selling pressure was
Support           5966          5885            5816
                                                              witnessed in the afternoon trade as markets slipped in the
                                                              red. The markets ended the day with modest losses to close
Resistance        6158          6313            6358
                                                              near the lows for the day. Nifty once again closes below
 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                         psychologically important 6000 level. The top losers for the
50 Day SMA                     5804.52        ◄Positive       day were BHEL, Tata Steel, Ambuja Cements, ITC,
100 Day SMA                    5668.01
                                                              Unltratech Cemco, Hero Motocorp, Bajaj Auto, TCS, DLF and
                                                              Bank of Baroda.
200 Day SMA                    5408.01

   Market Breadth *             BSE             NSE           Technically, the market breadth remained weak amidst
Advances                            1395               447
                                                              higher volumes, which is a negative sign for the markets.
Declines                            1575               721
                                                              The prevailing technical negatives are weighing on the
                                                              market sentiment. The RSI has slipped below its average.
Same                                 131                 53
                                                              Moreover, the KST and Stochastic are already placed
Total                               3101             1221
                                                              below their respective averages. The negative
A/D Ratio                        0.89 : 1          0.62 : 1   divergence pattern formed on the Nifty still holds good
             Volume (Lacs Shares)         *                   and remains a major concern. These negative technical
                                                              conditions would lead to selling pressure especially at
               09/01/13        08/01/13        % Chg.
                                                              higher levels. However, the prevailing technical positive
BSE                    3541         3160            12.06
                                                              conditions still hold good. The MACD is still placed
NSE                    9581         7709            24.28     above its average. Moreover, the MACD and KST are also
Total                 13122       10869             20.73     placed in the positive territory. The Nifty remains placed
                                                              above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
             Turnover ( ` Crores)         *                   The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s
               09/01/13        08/01/13        % Chg.         100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the later being called the
BSE                  2535.07     2705.16             -6.29    ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These positive conditions are
NSE              13571.82       11899.99            14.05     likely to help the markets witness buying support at
NSE F&O         107703.15 101905.87                   5.69    lower levels. Though the +DI line is placed above the –DI
Total           123810.04 116511.02                   6.26    line but has slipped below the 30 level; indicating buyers
                                                              are booking profits at regular intervals. The market
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)            *              sentiment remains cautious as Nifty struggles around
               09/01/13        08/01/13        % Chg.         the 6000 level. Now it is important that the Nifty moves
Index Fut.           238430      239065              -0.27    and sustains above the 6000 level for it to test the 6135
Stock Fut.           532814      473882             12.44     resistance level. In the meanwhile the markets would
Index Opt.        2363379       2302006               2.67
                                                              take cues from the forthcoming quarterly results, global
                                                              markets, Rupee and the crude prices. The support levels
Stock Opt.           304557      255816             19.05
                                                              for Nifty are placed at 5966, 5885, 5816 and 5747. The Nifty
Total             3439180       3270769               3.37
                                                              faces resistance at 6158, 6313 and 6358 levels.
NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE


Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                   Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in


                                                                   Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                   www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                                   Stop
                                                   Initiation       Stop           Loss
       Stock            Close          Action        Price         Loss *           (%)           Target          Target (%)   Remarks
BPCL                     385.70    Buy Above              387       381.00           1.55             400               3.36
Dr. Reddys             1910.90     Buy Above              1915     1888.00           1.41            1975               3.13
Havells               680.55   Buy Above             682    671.50                   1.54             705               3.37
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.

                                                              Intra-day Resistance                           Intra-day Support
       Indices             Close         Pivot Point         R1       R2         R3                   S1            S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                    19667               19706      19785      19903             20100        19588           19509     19312
S&P CNX NIFTY                   5972               5983          6008       6045           6107            5947         5922      5860
NIFTY JAN 13 FUT.               5999               5987          5993       5987           5987            5993         5987      5987




                                                Stocks To Watch Out Today
Bharti Airtel, BPCL, Dr. Reddys, Glaxo, GVK, Havells, HCL tech; HDIL, IDBI, Idea, Jain Irrigation, M&M, Max India, Mphasis,
MRF, NHPC, NMDC, Oil India, ONGC, Piramal Halthcare, PTC, SBI, Shriram Transport, Sun Pharma, Suzlon, Tata Motors,
Yes Bank
DCB, Hero Motocorp, Hexaware, Hindalco, IDFC, Indian Hotels, India Infoline, IndusindBank, Infosys Tech; Jindal Saw, Jindal
Steel, Jubilant Foods, LIC Hsg; L&T, NTPC, Opto Circuit, OBC, Ranbaxy, Raymond, Rel. Capital, Renuka Sugar, SAIL, Sesa
Goa, Sintex, SIB, SREI Infra, Sterlite, Sterlite Tech; Sun TV, Tata Steel, TCS, Titan, Ultratech Cemco , Union Bank, Voltas,
Welcorp, Wipro



                                                            Keynote Capitals Ltd.
               The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                           www.keynotecapitals.com
NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average




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                                                       Keynote Capitals Ltd.
          The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                      www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report for 100113

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 10th January 2013 Indices * Close % Chg. Markets listless BSE SENSEX 19666.59 -0.38 S&P CNX NIFTY 5971.50 -0.50 Mirroring the weak global market cues the domestic markets witnessed a flat opening. The markets managed to move NIFTY JAN 13 FUT. 5998.75 -0.74 higher on back of selective buying support. However, lack of India VIX 13.32 0.37 follow up buying support at higher levels saw the markets S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels come off the highs for the day. The over all trend remained Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 lackluster and listless. Sustained selling pressure was Support 5966 5885 5816 witnessed in the afternoon trade as markets slipped in the red. The markets ended the day with modest losses to close Resistance 6158 6313 6358 near the lows for the day. Nifty once again closes below Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY psychologically important 6000 level. The top losers for the 50 Day SMA 5804.52 ◄Positive day were BHEL, Tata Steel, Ambuja Cements, ITC, 100 Day SMA 5668.01 Unltratech Cemco, Hero Motocorp, Bajaj Auto, TCS, DLF and Bank of Baroda. 200 Day SMA 5408.01 Market Breadth * BSE NSE Technically, the market breadth remained weak amidst Advances 1395 447 higher volumes, which is a negative sign for the markets. Declines 1575 721 The prevailing technical negatives are weighing on the market sentiment. The RSI has slipped below its average. Same 131 53 Moreover, the KST and Stochastic are already placed Total 3101 1221 below their respective averages. The negative A/D Ratio 0.89 : 1 0.62 : 1 divergence pattern formed on the Nifty still holds good Volume (Lacs Shares) * and remains a major concern. These negative technical conditions would lead to selling pressure especially at 09/01/13 08/01/13 % Chg. higher levels. However, the prevailing technical positive BSE 3541 3160 12.06 conditions still hold good. The MACD is still placed NSE 9581 7709 24.28 above its average. Moreover, the MACD and KST are also Total 13122 10869 20.73 placed in the positive territory. The Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Turnover ( ` Crores) * The Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 09/01/13 08/01/13 % Chg. 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the later being called the BSE 2535.07 2705.16 -6.29 ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These positive conditions are NSE 13571.82 11899.99 14.05 likely to help the markets witness buying support at NSE F&O 107703.15 101905.87 5.69 lower levels. Though the +DI line is placed above the –DI Total 123810.04 116511.02 6.26 line but has slipped below the 30 level; indicating buyers are booking profits at regular intervals. The market F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * sentiment remains cautious as Nifty struggles around 09/01/13 08/01/13 % Chg. the 6000 level. Now it is important that the Nifty moves Index Fut. 238430 239065 -0.27 and sustains above the 6000 level for it to test the 6135 Stock Fut. 532814 473882 12.44 resistance level. In the meanwhile the markets would Index Opt. 2363379 2302006 2.67 take cues from the forthcoming quarterly results, global markets, Rupee and the crude prices. The support levels Stock Opt. 304557 255816 19.05 for Nifty are placed at 5966, 5885, 5816 and 5747. The Nifty Total 3439180 3270769 3.37 faces resistance at 6158, 6313 and 6358 levels. NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target Target (%) Remarks BPCL 385.70 Buy Above 387 381.00 1.55 400 3.36 Dr. Reddys 1910.90 Buy Above 1915 1888.00 1.41 1975 3.13 Havells 680.55 Buy Above 682 671.50 1.54 705 3.37 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 19667 19706 19785 19903 20100 19588 19509 19312 S&P CNX NIFTY 5972 5983 6008 6045 6107 5947 5922 5860 NIFTY JAN 13 FUT. 5999 5987 5993 5987 5987 5993 5987 5987 Stocks To Watch Out Today Bharti Airtel, BPCL, Dr. Reddys, Glaxo, GVK, Havells, HCL tech; HDIL, IDBI, Idea, Jain Irrigation, M&M, Max India, Mphasis, MRF, NHPC, NMDC, Oil India, ONGC, Piramal Halthcare, PTC, SBI, Shriram Transport, Sun Pharma, Suzlon, Tata Motors, Yes Bank DCB, Hero Motocorp, Hexaware, Hindalco, IDFC, Indian Hotels, India Infoline, IndusindBank, Infosys Tech; Jindal Saw, Jindal Steel, Jubilant Foods, LIC Hsg; L&T, NTPC, Opto Circuit, OBC, Ranbaxy, Raymond, Rel. Capital, Renuka Sugar, SAIL, Sesa Goa, Sintex, SIB, SREI Infra, Sterlite, Sterlite Tech; Sun TV, Tata Steel, TCS, Titan, Ultratech Cemco , Union Bank, Voltas, Welcorp, Wipro Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com