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Daily Commodity Outlook

                                                                                                                        10th October 2011

                                                              MCX GOLD (DEC 11) - Gold opened higher at 26275. It remained
                     Gold         Silver         Crude
                   (5 Dec-11)    (5 Dec-11)     (19 Oct-11)   range bound during the day. It touched intra-day high of 26378 and
                                                              intra-day low of 26255.
Open                   26,275        52,001           4,046

High                   26,378        52,450           4,076   The RSI remains placed above its average. Moreover, the Stochastic
Low                    26,255        51,913           4,035   has moved above its average. Both these conditions would lead to ,
                                                              which would lead to buying support. The ADX, +DI line and –DI line
Close                  26,350        52,297           4,071
                                                              are moving sideways. The –DI line remains placed above the 30
Prev. Close            26,219        51,901           4,035   level has come below the 30 level, indicating sellers are losing upper
% Change                0.50%         0.76%          0.89%    hand. MCX GOLD faces resistance at 27964, 28235, 28525, 28744
                                                              levels, while the supports are placed at 25360, 24992 and 23176
Source – MCX
                                                              levels.

                   Volume (In 000's)                          MCX SILVER (DEC 11) - Silver opened higher at 52001. It touched
                   8/10/2011     7/10/2011       % Chg.       intra-day low level of 51913 and intra-day high of 52450 before
                                                              closing the day with moderate gains of 52297.
Gold (grms)            2,071.0      44,968.0       -95.39%

Silver (kgs)             67.2        2,496.6       -97.31%    The RSI is placed above its average along with the Stochastic. Both
                                                              these conditions would lead to regular bouts of buying support.
Crude (bbl)             418.7       19,688.8       -97.87%
                                                              However, the Stochastic is placed in the over bought zone and would
Source – MCX                                                  lead to profit taking. The –DI line remains placed at 35.50 indicating
                                                              sellers have an upper hand. MCX Silver faces resistance at 52365,
                   Turnover (In Lacs)                         54377, 56981 and 61708 levels, while the supports are placed at
                                                              49828, 45824 and 42708 levels.
                   8/10/2011     7/10/2011       % Chg.

Gold                  54,507.1 1,189,989.7         -95.42%    MCX CRUDE (OCT 11) - Crude opened higher at 4069 level.
Silver                35,121.9 1,326,085.4         -97.35%    Incidentally this was also low for the day. It moved higher to touch an
                                                              intra-day high of 4074. It ended the day at 4038 to close with
Crude                 17,025.7    800,164.0        -97.87%    handsome gains.
Source – MCX
                                                              The RSI is placed above its average. Moreso, the Stochastic is also
              Global Market (Nymex - $)                       placed above its average. Both these conditions would lead to buying
                                                              support. However, the Stochastic is placed in the over bought zone
                   10/10/2011    8/10/2011       % Chg.
                                                              and would lead to profit taking. At higher levels. The ADX, +DI line
Gold (oz)             1,645.60      1,634.50         0.68%    and –DI line are moving sideways. It faces resistance at 4129, 4262
                                                              and 4301 levels, while the supports are placed at 4038, 3916 and
Silver (oz)             31.15         30.95          0.65%
                                                              3794 levels.
Crude (bbl)             83.62         82.98          0.77%

Dollar Index            78.40         78.75         -0.44%
Source – www.cmegroup.com

                                                                     Intra-day Resistance                            Intra-day Support
 Commodities                Close             Pivot Point       R1            R2             R3            S1              S2               S3

 CRUDE OCT 11                     4071                4061        4086          4102           4143           4045          4020             3979

  GOLD DEC 11                    26350              26328        26400         26451          26574         26277          26205            26082

 SILVER DEC 11                   52297              52220        52527         52757          53294         51990          51683            51146


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US Economic Calendar:

       Friday                     Tuesday                    Wednesday                      Thursday                       Friday
       Oct. 07                     Oct. 11                    Oct. 12                        Oct. 13                       Oct. 14
                                                       MBA Purchase
Employment Situation      FOMC Minutes                                               International Trade          Retail Sales Data
                                                       Applications
                          NFIB Small Business
Consumer Credit                                        10-Yr Note Auction            Jobless Claims               Consumer Sentiment
                          Optimism Index
                          4-Week Bill                                                EIA Petroleum Status
Wholesale Trade                                                                                                   Business Inventories
                          Announcement                                               Report
Monster Employment                                                                                                Import and Export
                          3-Yr Note Auction                                          Treasury Budget
Index                                                                                                             Prices




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                                                           www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote commodity Daily Report 101011

  • 1. Daily Commodity Outlook 10th October 2011 MCX GOLD (DEC 11) - Gold opened higher at 26275. It remained Gold Silver Crude (5 Dec-11) (5 Dec-11) (19 Oct-11) range bound during the day. It touched intra-day high of 26378 and intra-day low of 26255. Open 26,275 52,001 4,046 High 26,378 52,450 4,076 The RSI remains placed above its average. Moreover, the Stochastic Low 26,255 51,913 4,035 has moved above its average. Both these conditions would lead to , which would lead to buying support. The ADX, +DI line and –DI line Close 26,350 52,297 4,071 are moving sideways. The –DI line remains placed above the 30 Prev. Close 26,219 51,901 4,035 level has come below the 30 level, indicating sellers are losing upper % Change 0.50% 0.76% 0.89% hand. MCX GOLD faces resistance at 27964, 28235, 28525, 28744 levels, while the supports are placed at 25360, 24992 and 23176 Source – MCX levels. Volume (In 000's) MCX SILVER (DEC 11) - Silver opened higher at 52001. It touched 8/10/2011 7/10/2011 % Chg. intra-day low level of 51913 and intra-day high of 52450 before closing the day with moderate gains of 52297. Gold (grms) 2,071.0 44,968.0 -95.39% Silver (kgs) 67.2 2,496.6 -97.31% The RSI is placed above its average along with the Stochastic. Both these conditions would lead to regular bouts of buying support. Crude (bbl) 418.7 19,688.8 -97.87% However, the Stochastic is placed in the over bought zone and would Source – MCX lead to profit taking. The –DI line remains placed at 35.50 indicating sellers have an upper hand. MCX Silver faces resistance at 52365, Turnover (In Lacs) 54377, 56981 and 61708 levels, while the supports are placed at 49828, 45824 and 42708 levels. 8/10/2011 7/10/2011 % Chg. Gold 54,507.1 1,189,989.7 -95.42% MCX CRUDE (OCT 11) - Crude opened higher at 4069 level. Silver 35,121.9 1,326,085.4 -97.35% Incidentally this was also low for the day. It moved higher to touch an intra-day high of 4074. It ended the day at 4038 to close with Crude 17,025.7 800,164.0 -97.87% handsome gains. Source – MCX The RSI is placed above its average. Moreso, the Stochastic is also Global Market (Nymex - $) placed above its average. Both these conditions would lead to buying support. However, the Stochastic is placed in the over bought zone 10/10/2011 8/10/2011 % Chg. and would lead to profit taking. At higher levels. The ADX, +DI line Gold (oz) 1,645.60 1,634.50 0.68% and –DI line are moving sideways. It faces resistance at 4129, 4262 and 4301 levels, while the supports are placed at 4038, 3916 and Silver (oz) 31.15 30.95 0.65% 3794 levels. Crude (bbl) 83.62 82.98 0.77% Dollar Index 78.40 78.75 -0.44% Source – www.cmegroup.com Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Commodities Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 CRUDE OCT 11 4071 4061 4086 4102 4143 4045 4020 3979 GOLD DEC 11 26350 26328 26400 26451 26574 26277 26205 26082 SILVER DEC 11 52297 52220 52527 52757 53294 51990 51683 51146 Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. US Economic Calendar: Friday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Oct. 07 Oct. 11 Oct. 12 Oct. 13 Oct. 14 MBA Purchase Employment Situation FOMC Minutes International Trade Retail Sales Data Applications NFIB Small Business Consumer Credit 10-Yr Note Auction Jobless Claims Consumer Sentiment Optimism Index 4-Week Bill EIA Petroleum Status Wholesale Trade Business Inventories Announcement Report Monster Employment Import and Export 3-Yr Note Auction Treasury Budget Index Prices Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com