Climate Variability and Change, Importance for IWRM planning process International Roundtable on Protection and Sustainable Use of Trans-boundary Waters in South East Europe, 15-16 December 2011, Zagreb, Croatia

1. Climate Variability and Change
importance for IWRM planning process
Lučka Kajfež Bogataj
University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
former IPCC WG2 vicechair

2. Fossil Fuel & Cement CO2 Emissions
Growth rate
2010
5.9% yr
Growth rate
2000-2010
3.1% per year
Growth rate
2009
-1.3% per year
Growth rate
1990-1999
1% per year
Uncertainty (6-10%)
- +
Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Marland et al. 2009

3. Key Questions
Increased demand 1. Can 9 billion people be
50% by 2030 (IEA)
fed equitably, healthily
Energy and sustainably?
2. Can we cope with the
Climate future demands on
water?
Change
Food Water 3. Can we provide enough
Increased demand Increased demand energy to supply the
50% by 2030 30% by 2030 growing population
(FAO) (IFPRI) coming out of poverty?
4. Can we mitigate and
adapt to climate change?
Biodiversity 5. Can we do all this in the
context of redressing the
decline in biodiversity and
The Perfect Storm? preserving ecosystems?
(Beddington, 2009)

4. Jun-Jul-Aug and Dec-Jan-Feb
temperature anomalies (°C)
Jun-Jul-Aug Dec-Jan-Feb
Hansen, 2011

5. Summer temperature in Europe
Barriopedro et al., 2011

6. EEA www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/

7. 3 classes of water problems in SEE
• too little water
• too much water
• water pollution
Can (and will) be exacerbated
by climate change

8. Main drought events in Europe, 2000–2009

9. Recurrence of flood events in Europe
(EEA, 2011)

10. Europe: Geographic Changes
+10
-1
+50%
-50%
2080-
2080-2099 Minus 1980-1999 (A1B)
1980-

11. Special Report on Managing the Risks
of Extreme Events and Disasters to
Advance Climate Change Adaptation
(IPCC , 2011)

12. Decrease in return
period implies
more frequent
extreme
temperature events
The time between “20-year” (unusually) warm days will decrease

13. IPCC SREX, 2011 : on drougts
Summary for Policymakers
• There is medium confidence that droughts will
intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and
areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or
increased evapotranspiration.
• This applies to regions including southern
Europe and the Mediterranean region, central
Europe, central North America, Central America
and Mexico, NE Brazil, and S Africa.

15. River flow –projected trend
Relative change in seasonal
and annual runoff between
1961-1990 compared to
2071-2100 (SRES A2).
Dankers and Feyen, 2008.

16. Projected river flow droughts
river
Relative change in mean annual and summer minimum 7-day river flow
between scenario (2071-2100, SRES A2) and control period (1961-1990)
Feyen and Dankers, 2008.

17. River floods –projected trend
Relative change in 100-year return level (Gumbel fit) of river discharge
between scenario (2071-2100, SRES A2) and control period (1961-1990)
Dankers and Feyen, 2008.

18. Proportion of severe
water stress EU river
basins likely to
increase from
19% today to 35%
by 2070.
Areas affected by
droughts will
increase.

19. Risks in key sectors
Water: decresing water
availability, changes in Agriculture:
precipitation, melting of glaciers, Decreasing agricultural
extreme weather events, production, economic
increasing competition of decline, more
demand unempoyment, food
Climate change
shortages, increasing
Urban space
competition of demand
Energy
Infrastru
Food Water cture Governance
transport
Land use
Infrastructure,
energy supply and transport:
environmental change due to
climate change increases Urbanisation: Increasing disaster
running costs (damages, risks, health risks, growing
flooding etc) or reduces population dynamics, growing
energy production (hydro) slums

20. The water conflict scenario
• The scarcity of water is
replacing oil as a flashpoint for
conflict between nations
• The danger of international
competition for adequate water
resources will grow inevitably.
•
• Need to prevent intense
competition for this essential
substance
http://www.availableimages.com/movies/2008/bluegold-
worldwaterwars/pictures-bluegold-worldwaterwars_pph_4.htmlhttp://

21. How to adapt?
• Regarding increasing water stress, the most common
and planned strategies remain supply-side measures
such as impounding rivers to form in-stream reservoirs
(also wastewater reuse and desalination).
• Demand-side strategies are also needed, such as
household, industrial and agricultural water conservation,
reducing leaky municipal and irrigation water systems,
and water pricing.
• The main structural measures to protect against floods
are likely to remain reservoirs and dikes in highland and
lowland areas respectively. Other planned adaptation
options include expanded floodplain areas, emergency
flood reservoirs, preserved areas for flood water, and
flood warning systems.

22. Adaptation and WATER Risk Management
Approaches for a Changing Climate

23. Conclusions
• Water resources management in the CEE region
faces formidable challenges.
• The hydrological regimes of the major rivers in the
region are complex and vulnerable to climate
change.
• The impact of a warming climate on key
hydrological processes is not sufficiently
understood
• At this point in time, the impacts are not sufficiently
quantified in SEE region and adaptation and
mitigation strategies not in place.