This document summarizes climate change impacts and mitigation efforts in South Africa. It finds that key sectors like water, agriculture, and biodiversity face risks from climate change. South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions increased 29% from 2000 to 2010. The country has developed options to reduce emissions in sectors like energy, transport, and waste. These include policies like a carbon tax, with revenue used to support energy efficiency and a just transition. Overall the mitigation options could significantly reduce South Africa's emissions from projected levels by 2025 if fully implemented.

2. Local Climate Change Impacts and South
Africa's contribution to Climate Change
Mitigation
Climate Change and Air Quality

3. Overview
• Background of the Biennial Update Report (BUR)
• Climate Change Impacts in South Africa
• Water
• Agriculture and Forestry
• Human Health
• Marine and Fisheries
• Biodiversity
• South Africa’s Response:
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Status
• Options for reducing emissions
• Impact of reducing emissions
• Other measures (e.g. Market Instruments)
• Carbon Tax
• Conclusions

4. Climate Change Impacts in South
Africa

9. Selected findings
Highly developed planning process, tools
and system in place
Anticipates demand growth, 98%-95%
assurance of supply depending on
strategic needs
Focus on infrastructure development,
little focus on demand management
Early climate change planning in a few
key water management areas
Overall climate change strategy has been
developed, adaptive capacity is high in
both built and ecological infrastructure
and catchment management
LTAS PHASE 1

10. LTAS PHASE 1
Selected findings
Overall risks due to increasing temperature
relate to increasing water demand, pests and
diseases, crop suitability
Maize production at risk in western reaches
of summer rainfall area, wheat production at
risk in winter rainfall region, key export fruit
crops at risk but commercial producers show
high adaptability
High risk for small scale and subsistence
farmers, including adverse field conditions
for labour
Commercial forestry shows high adaptability
due to breeding (clones) and management
techniques

11. LTAS PHASE 1
Selected findings
Very recent overall strategy produced
Key risks due to existing disease burden
and poverty, especially in rural and
urban poor, especially relating to
extreme events
Risks for high levels of discomfort due to
poor living conditions in informal
settlements and low cost housing,
exacerbated by food security and lack of
access to food
Some risks relating to vector borne
diseases, e.g. malaria, schistosomiasis
Adaptive strategies include efficient
early warning systems and improved
living conditions and reduced poverty

12. LTAS PHASE 1
Selected findings
Highly uncertain projections for key
stocks (already heavily depleted),
due to inadequate projections of
marine processes, including currents
Risks to coastal livelihoods interact
with governance systems for
resources
Recent shifts in resources, possibly
cyclical, have caused assets to be
stranded (West Coast factories)
Adaptation strategies relate to
sustainable management of stocks
and improved predictive
understanding

13. LTAS PHASE 1
Selected findings
Range of vulnerabilities of different biomes,
with grassland and winter rainfall biomes
most at risk
Potential risk due to expansion of desert
biome conditions in central interior
Observed impacts on some species,
especially migratory bird species
Bush encroachment risk to grazing systems
and ecotourism
Adaptive capacity high with many
management options, early warning and
observation systems are critical, spatial
planning to ensure maintenance of resilient
landscapes
Ecosystem based adaptation offers value to
South African society

14. South Africa’s Greenhouse Gas
Emissions – Status Quo

15. CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita)
in 2010 (WB, 2014)
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20

16. GHG Emissions, Megatonnes (Source: EIA)
GHG Emissions M-Tons - 2009
Rank Country M - ton %
1 China 7 711 25.4%
2 United States 5 425 17.8%
3 India 1 602 5.3%
4 Russia 1 572 5.2%
5 Japan 1 098 3.6%
6 Germany 766 2.5%
7 Canada 541 1.8%
8 Korea, South 528 1.7%
9 Iran 527 1.7%
10 United Kingdom 520 1.7%
11 Saudi Arabia 470 1.5%
12 South Africa 450 1.5%
13 Mexico 444 1.5%
14 Brazil 420 1.4%
15 Australia 418 1.4%
16 Indonesia 413 1.4%
17 Italy 408 1.3%
18 France 397 1.3%
19 Spain 330 1.1%
20 Taiwan 291 1.0%
21 Poland 286 0.9%

17. Energy ↑ by 28.9%.
IPPU ↓ by 1.1%.
AFOLU ↑ by 68.9%.
Waste ↑ by 59.8%.
GHG Emissions Inventory -
• South Africa’s 2010 national inventory (excluding the LULUCF
sector) was 579 million tonnes CO2e.
• Emissions increased by 29.6% compared with 2000 levels.
Between 2000 and 2010:

19. Industrial Processes – Emissions breakdown by sub-sector 2010

21. 0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
RealGDP(Rmillions)
Sectoral GDP trends
Min
Manu
Elec
Cons
Serv
Trans+Com
Fin
Pers
Gov

22. 420,000,000
440,000,000
460,000,000
480,000,000
500,000,000
520,000,000
540,000,000
560,000,000
580,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
tCO2e
blank
Sasolburg natural gas conversion
Secunda coal to gas feedstock change
Nitrous oxide abatement projects
Sasol energy optimisation projects
Eskom Demand Side Management projects
Clean Development Mechanism projects
blank
National GHG inventory without mitigation measures
National GHG inventory
Effect of South Africa’s mitigation actions on the national GHG inventory
Effect of South
Africa’s
mitigation
initiatives on
the national
GHG inventory

23. Mitigation Options to Reduce
Emissions

24. Mitigation Options: Energy Sector (2020)

25. Mitigation Options: Road Transport (2020)

26. Mitigation Options:
Agriculture & Land Use (2020)

27. Mitigation Options: Waste (2020)

28. Overall Impact of Mitigation Options
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
PPD Upper-range 1
PPD trajectory lower limits
GHG Inventory (2000-10) + MPA-WOM
(2011-25)
WEM
MPA: WAM-100%
MPA: WAM-75%
MPA: WAM-50%
MPA: WAM-25%

29. Market Instruments to Reduce
Emissions – Carbon Tax

30. Carbon Tax
Revenue
Carbon tax at R120 per ton
of CO2e from Jan 2016.
90% maximum tax free
allowance
60% basic tax free threshold
10% tax free allowance for
trade exposure
10% tax free allowance for
process emissions
5-10% allowance for Carbon
Offsets – to reduce the
carbon tax liability
- Tax free
allowance of
60-90% -
effective tax
rate of R12-
R48 t/CO2e
- Tax free
thresholds
phased down
after 2025
- Largely
neutral
impact on
GDP over the
medium term
Revenue Recycling
Energy Efficiency Savings tax
incentive
R&D tax incentive for green
technology.
Credit against Eskom’s carbon tax
liability for the renewable energy
premium built into the electricity
tariffs
Phasing-down of the electricity levy
Income tax exemption for carbon
offset projects
Support for the installation of solar
water geysers
Enhanced free basic electricity /
energy for low income households
Improved public passenger transport

31. Observations and Lessons Learned
• Key climate change impacts in South Africa in sectors such as
water, agriculture and biodiversity
• Emissions have risen by 29% in 2010 compared to 2000
emission levels
• Carbon intensity of the economy has decline over the past
years largely due to growth in the services sector
• Private sector initiatives have had a significant impact on
reducing South Africa’s national emissions profile.

32. Thank You