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Deepwater	
  Horizon	
  
Delusions	
  
Delusion	
  of	
  preventability	
  and	
  lineraity	
  
Examples	
  of	
  all	
  accidents	
  are	
  preventable	
  –	
  lucky,	
  
Chemical	
  factory	
  
Lac	
  MeganBc	
  	
  
Typical	
  accident	
  analysis	
  –	
  RCM	
  steps	
  
Human	
  error	
  
Killer	
  Driver	
  
Human	
  capability	
  –	
  ball	
  girl,	
  baseball	
  player,	
  	
  
The	
  Accident	
  
Just	
  culture	
  repsonses	
  
AlternaBve	
  methods	
  	
  
Leadership	
  link	
  
	
  
“Blame	
  ‘n	
  shame”	
  
or	
  
‘Listen	
  and	
  Learn”	
  
A	
  Just	
  approach	
  to	
  Accident	
  InvesBgaBon	
  
NOSHCON	
  September	
  2015	
  
PresentaBon	
  by	
  Steve	
  Woodward	
  –	
  SAFEmap	
  InternaBonal	
  
All  accidents  are  preventable!!
If	
  we	
  know	
  the	
  effect	
  we	
  can	
  determine	
  the	
  cause	
  
If	
  we	
  know	
  the	
  cause	
  we	
  can	
  eliminate	
  it	
  
	
  
From	
  this	
  mindset	
  it	
  follows	
  that….	
  
	
  
We	
  should	
  never	
  have	
  an	
  accident	
  so	
  why	
  do	
  we	
  …well	
  human	
  error	
  of	
  course..	
  
	
  
	
  
“Killer	
  Driver”	
  
“Killer	
  Driver”	
  
What  was  the  cause?
 Analyze	
  and	
  prevent	
  accidents	
  
	
  
Eliminate	
  risk-­‐taking	
  
Enforce	
  safety	
  rules	
  
Educate	
  in	
  safe	
  work	
  procedures	
  
Engineer	
  a	
  safe	
  work	
  environment	
  
	
  Measure	
  safety	
  performance	
  
Reward	
  achievements	
  
Zero	
  
1.  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  causa=on	
  
2.  preventability	
  2.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  human	
  error	
  
3.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  compliance	
  
4.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  consistency	
  
5.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  control	
  
6.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  quan=fica=on	
  
7.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  invulnerability	
  
Probable	
  
Infrequent	
  
Remote	
  
Improbable	
  
Marginal	
   Cri=cal	
   Catastrophic	
  
Preventability
All	
  accidents	
  are	
  preventable…	
  
12	
  dead,	
  	
  42	
  injured	
  
Photo 1. The Lac-Mégantic derailment site following the accident
1.2 Aftermath
…accident	
  	
  
wai=ng	
  	
  	
  
to	
  happen…	
  	
  
Driver	
  	
  
Change	
  over	
  
Thin	
  tanker	
  	
  
shells	
  fail	
  	
  
Air	
  release	
  	
  
Fire	
  fighters	
  
shuts	
  loco	
  
911	
  call:	
  
Loco	
  fire	
  
All	
  leave	
  scene	
  
No	
  loco	
  started	
  
Hand	
  brakes	
  	
  
fail	
  
Parked	
  on	
  
.92%	
  gradient	
  
Sets	
  7	
  
handbrakes	
  
Reports	
  smoke	
  
to	
  authority	
  
Rushing	
  
Complacent	
  
FaBgue	
  
Careless	
  
DistracBon	
  
Atude	
  
FrustraBon	
  
Why?	
  
Why?	
  
Why?	
  
Why?	
  Why?	
  
WYLFIWYWF	
  
hindsight
O_awa	
  18	
  September	
  2013	
  
6	
  of	
  82	
  killed	
  
Unknown	
  risks	
  
Known	
  	
  risks	
  
What?	
  
What?	
  
What?	
  
What?	
  
Average	
  level	
  of	
  posi=ve	
  responses“All accidents can be prevented”
0
	
  0
20
30
40
50
60
70
Percent Agree Linear (Percent Agree)
More positive companies
Best safety performance
More negative companies
Worst safety performance
The Chemical Factory
1	
   2	
   3	
   4	
  
The Chemical Factory
1000	
   40	
  1000	
   30	
  1000	
   20	
  1000	
   10	
  
1.  	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  causa=on	
  
2.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  human	
  error	
  
3.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  compliance	
  
4.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  consistency	
  
5.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  control	
  
6.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  quanBficaBon	
  
7.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  invulnerability	
  
Risk management: where are the keys?
“Virtual”	
  risks	
  
Known	
  risks	
  
“Virtual”	
  risks	
  
Known	
  risks	
  
Murphy’s Law according to Sidney Dekker
“ Most of the time what will go wrong goes right ….
….until it doesn’t ”
Luck?
TradiBonal	
  View	
  of	
  Determining	
  Incident	
  Causes	
  
Substandard	
  Acts	
  
Substandard	
  
CondiBons	
  
Personal	
  Factors	
   Job	
  Factors	
  
Incident	
  
Immediate	
  Causes	
  
Underlying	
  or	
  Root	
  Causes	
  
Management	
  System	
  Deficiencies	
  Incident	
  
Causa=on	
  Path	
  
Incident	
  
Inves=ga=on	
  Path	
  
No	
  Standard,	
  Inadequate	
  Standard,	
  Non-­‐Compliance	
  
“Finding	
  the	
  management	
  system	
  
deficiencies	
  that	
  led	
  to	
  the	
  incident”	
  
Evolving	
  View	
  of	
  Determining	
  Incident	
  Causes	
  
Incident	
  
Substandard	
  Acts	
  
Substandard	
  
CondiBons	
  
Immediate	
  Causes	
  
Human	
  	
  
Factors	
  
Systemic	
  Factors	
  
ContribuBng	
  Factors	
  
Management	
  System	
  Deficiencies	
  
No	
  Standard,	
  Inadequate	
  Standard,	
  Non-­‐Compliance	
  
Incident	
  
Causa=on	
  Path	
  
Incident	
  
Inves=ga=on	
  Path	
  
“Finding	
  the	
  management	
  system	
  
deficiencies	
  that	
  led	
  to	
  the	
  incident”	
  
Physical	
  Factors	
  
Full	
  InvesBgaBon	
  
Limited	
  
Inves=ga=on	
  
Inves=ga=on	
  Risk	
  Calculator	
  Exercises	
  
•  For	
  each	
  example	
  provided,	
  determine	
  the	
  following:	
  
a)  The	
  Actual	
  risk	
  level	
  and	
  PotenBal	
  risk	
  level;	
  
b)  The	
  recommended	
  team	
  size	
  (supervisor	
  only,	
  small	
  team	
  or	
  full	
  team);	
  
and,	
  
c)  The	
  report	
  type	
  (limited	
  invesBgaBon	
  or	
  a	
  full	
  invesBgaBon	
  report)	
  
"Ladies	
  and	
  gentlemen,	
  	
  
thank	
  you	
  for	
  flying	
  with	
  our	
  Airline.	
  	
  
Please	
  make	
  yourself	
  comfortable..…	
  	
  
For	
  those	
  of	
  you	
  si?ng	
  	
  
on	
  the	
  right	
  side	
  of	
  the	
  plane..…	
  	
  
please	
  ignore	
  our	
  other	
  airliner."	
  
A	
  Cabin	
  Announcement:	
  
Anchor Error
!  Severe accidents are overestimated
−  For example: nuclear, sharks, guns
Anchor Error
RISKcalculator
Happens here often
Seldom
Quarterly
Monthly
Weekly
Daily
Continuous
Fatalities
Fatality
Disability
Serious (LTI)
Medical
First Aid
Happened here
previously
Can happen here
Heard of elsewhere
Never heard of it
Happened here
recently
PLEASE PRINT CLEARLY
Likelihood
Exposure
Result
Risk Level
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Circle a numberDraw your lines above
2
VeryHigh
High
VeryLow
LowMedium
6. Yes Final check, Risks Overlooked,
Underestimated, Ignored, Rewarded? Do an act of safety.
© 2009 SAFEmap International Pty. ✓ or ✖
Anchor Error
RISKcalculator
Happens here often
Seldom
Quarterly
Monthly
Weekly
Daily
Continuous
Fatalities
Fatality
Disability
Serious (LTI)
Medical
First Aid
Happened here
previously
Can happen here
Heard of elsewhere
Never heard of it
Happened here
recently
PLEASE PRINT CLEARLY
Likelihood
Exposure
Result
Risk Level
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Circle a numberDraw your lines above
2
VeryHigh
High
VeryLow
LowMedium
6. Yes Final check, Risks Overlooked,
Underestimated, Ignored, Rewarded? Do an act of safety.
© 2009 SAFEmap International Pty. ✓ or ✖
RISKcalculator
Happens here often
Seldom
Quarterly
Monthly
Weekly
Daily
Continuous
Fatalities
Fatality
Disability
Serious (LTI)
Medical
First Aid
Happened here
previously
Can happen here
Heard of elsewhere
Never heard of it
Happened here
recently
PLEASE PRINT CLEARLY
Likelihood
Exposure
Result
Risk Level
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Circle a numberDraw your lines above
2
VeryHigh
High
VeryLow
LowMedium
6. Yes Final check, Risks Overlooked,
Underestimated, Ignored, Rewarded? Do an act of safety.
© 2009 SAFEmap International Pty. ✓ or ✖
 1.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  linearity	
  
2.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  human	
  error	
  
3.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  compliance	
  
4.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  consistency	
  
5.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  control	
  
6.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  quanBficaBon	
  
7.	
  The	
  delusion	
  of	
  invulnerability	
  
As  humans,  we  can  (uniquely)  be:
!  Ina_enBve	
  
!  Incompetent	
  
!  ErraBc	
  
!  Biased	
  
!  ViolaBng	
  
•  Lapsing
•  Forgetful
•  Unreliable
•  Inconsistent
•  Rigid
and	
  complacent...!	
  
As  humans,  we  can  (uniquely)  be:
• Enduring	
  
• Compassionate	
  
• ImaginaBve	
  
• Sacrificing	
  
• Conquering	
  
•  Heroic
•  Passionate
•  Inspirational
•  Intuitive
•  Adaptive
Miner	
  in	
  tunnel	
  
Capt	
  Sully	
  Sullenburger	
  
Train Dilemma 4
Soldier  picture
Pressures	
  
ExpectaBons	
  
At-­‐risk	
  
CircumvenBon	
  
	
  
Perceptual	
  
Technical	
  skills	
  
Incompetence	
  
Misjudgment	
  
CogniBve	
  error	
  
Erroneous	
  
Risk	
  IncenBves	
  
Safe	
  Punishment	
  
Poor	
  Design	
  
Risky	
  RouBnes	
  
	
  
Delusions	
  
Calculated	
  
Careless	
  
Reckless	
  
Conformant	
  Inten=onal	
  
IntenBonal	
  
Inadvertent	
  
Change	
   Train	
  Discipline	
   Coach	
  
Pressures	
  
ExpectaBons	
  
At-­‐risk	
  
CircumvenBon	
  
	
  
Perceptual	
  
Technical	
  skills	
  
Incompetence	
  
Misjudgment	
  
CogniBve	
  error	
  
Erroneous	
  
Risk	
  IncenBves	
  
Safe	
  Punishment	
  
Poor	
  Design	
  
Risky	
  RouBnes	
  
	
  
Delusions	
  
Calculated	
  
Careless	
  
Reckless	
  
Conformant	
  Inten=onal	
  
Discipline	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Sanc=on	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Warning	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Punishment	
  	
  	
  	
  Rebuke	
  	
  

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Accident Investigations - Blame and Shame or Listen and Learn?

  • 1. Deepwater  Horizon   Delusions   Delusion  of  preventability  and  lineraity   Examples  of  all  accidents  are  preventable  –  lucky,   Chemical  factory   Lac  MeganBc     Typical  accident  analysis  –  RCM  steps   Human  error   Killer  Driver   Human  capability  –  ball  girl,  baseball  player,     The  Accident   Just  culture  repsonses   AlternaBve  methods     Leadership  link    
  • 2. “Blame  ‘n  shame”   or   ‘Listen  and  Learn”   A  Just  approach  to  Accident  InvesBgaBon   NOSHCON  September  2015   PresentaBon  by  Steve  Woodward  –  SAFEmap  InternaBonal  
  • 3. All  accidents  are  preventable!! If  we  know  the  effect  we  can  determine  the  cause   If  we  know  the  cause  we  can  eliminate  it     From  this  mindset  it  follows  that….     We  should  never  have  an  accident  so  why  do  we  …well  human  error  of  course..      
  • 5.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. What  was  the  cause?
  • 10.  Analyze  and  prevent  accidents     Eliminate  risk-­‐taking   Enforce  safety  rules   Educate  in  safe  work  procedures   Engineer  a  safe  work  environment    Measure  safety  performance   Reward  achievements  
  • 12. 1.  The  delusion  of  causa=on   2.  preventability  2.  The  delusion  of  human  error   3.  The  delusion  of  compliance   4.  The  delusion  of  consistency   5.  The  delusion  of  control   6.  The  delusion  of  quan=fica=on   7.  The  delusion  of  invulnerability  
  • 13. Probable   Infrequent   Remote   Improbable   Marginal   Cri=cal   Catastrophic  
  • 15. 12  dead,    42  injured  
  • 16. Photo 1. The Lac-Mégantic derailment site following the accident 1.2 Aftermath
  • 17.
  • 18. …accident     wai=ng       to  happen…    
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24. Driver     Change  over   Thin  tanker     shells  fail     Air  release     Fire  fighters   shuts  loco   911  call:   Loco  fire   All  leave  scene   No  loco  started   Hand  brakes     fail   Parked  on   .92%  gradient   Sets  7   handbrakes   Reports  smoke   to  authority  
  • 25. Rushing   Complacent   FaBgue   Careless   DistracBon   Atude   FrustraBon  
  • 26.
  • 27. Why?   Why?   Why?   Why?  Why?   WYLFIWYWF   hindsight
  • 28. O_awa  18  September  2013   6  of  82  killed  
  • 29.
  • 30. Unknown  risks   Known    risks  
  • 31. What?   What?   What?   What?  
  • 32. Average  level  of  posi=ve  responses“All accidents can be prevented” 0  0 20 30 40 50 60 70 Percent Agree Linear (Percent Agree) More positive companies Best safety performance More negative companies Worst safety performance
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35. The Chemical Factory 1   2   3   4   The Chemical Factory
  • 36. 1000   40  1000   30  1000   20  1000   10  
  • 37.
  • 38. 1.   The  delusion  of  causa=on   2.  The  delusion  of  human  error   3.  The  delusion  of  compliance   4.  The  delusion  of  consistency   5.  The  delusion  of  control   6.  The  delusion  of  quanBficaBon   7.  The  delusion  of  invulnerability  
  • 39. Risk management: where are the keys? “Virtual”  risks   Known  risks  
  • 41. Murphy’s Law according to Sidney Dekker “ Most of the time what will go wrong goes right …. ….until it doesn’t ”
  • 42. Luck?
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48. TradiBonal  View  of  Determining  Incident  Causes   Substandard  Acts   Substandard   CondiBons   Personal  Factors   Job  Factors   Incident   Immediate  Causes   Underlying  or  Root  Causes   Management  System  Deficiencies  Incident   Causa=on  Path   Incident   Inves=ga=on  Path   No  Standard,  Inadequate  Standard,  Non-­‐Compliance   “Finding  the  management  system   deficiencies  that  led  to  the  incident”  
  • 49.
  • 50. Evolving  View  of  Determining  Incident  Causes   Incident   Substandard  Acts   Substandard   CondiBons   Immediate  Causes   Human     Factors   Systemic  Factors   ContribuBng  Factors   Management  System  Deficiencies   No  Standard,  Inadequate  Standard,  Non-­‐Compliance   Incident   Causa=on  Path   Incident   Inves=ga=on  Path   “Finding  the  management  system   deficiencies  that  led  to  the  incident”   Physical  Factors  
  • 51.
  • 52. Full  InvesBgaBon   Limited   Inves=ga=on  
  • 53. Inves=ga=on  Risk  Calculator  Exercises   •  For  each  example  provided,  determine  the  following:   a)  The  Actual  risk  level  and  PotenBal  risk  level;   b)  The  recommended  team  size  (supervisor  only,  small  team  or  full  team);   and,   c)  The  report  type  (limited  invesBgaBon  or  a  full  invesBgaBon  report)  
  • 54.
  • 55. "Ladies  and  gentlemen,     thank  you  for  flying  with  our  Airline.     Please  make  yourself  comfortable..…     For  those  of  you  si?ng     on  the  right  side  of  the  plane..…     please  ignore  our  other  airliner."   A  Cabin  Announcement:  
  • 56.
  • 57. Anchor Error !  Severe accidents are overestimated −  For example: nuclear, sharks, guns
  • 59.
  • 60.
  • 61.
  • 62.
  • 63. RISKcalculator Happens here often Seldom Quarterly Monthly Weekly Daily Continuous Fatalities Fatality Disability Serious (LTI) Medical First Aid Happened here previously Can happen here Heard of elsewhere Never heard of it Happened here recently PLEASE PRINT CLEARLY Likelihood Exposure Result Risk Level 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Circle a numberDraw your lines above 2 VeryHigh High VeryLow LowMedium 6. Yes Final check, Risks Overlooked, Underestimated, Ignored, Rewarded? Do an act of safety. © 2009 SAFEmap International Pty. ✓ or ✖
  • 65. RISKcalculator Happens here often Seldom Quarterly Monthly Weekly Daily Continuous Fatalities Fatality Disability Serious (LTI) Medical First Aid Happened here previously Can happen here Heard of elsewhere Never heard of it Happened here recently PLEASE PRINT CLEARLY Likelihood Exposure Result Risk Level 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Circle a numberDraw your lines above 2 VeryHigh High VeryLow LowMedium 6. Yes Final check, Risks Overlooked, Underestimated, Ignored, Rewarded? Do an act of safety. © 2009 SAFEmap International Pty. ✓ or ✖
  • 66.
  • 67. RISKcalculator Happens here often Seldom Quarterly Monthly Weekly Daily Continuous Fatalities Fatality Disability Serious (LTI) Medical First Aid Happened here previously Can happen here Heard of elsewhere Never heard of it Happened here recently PLEASE PRINT CLEARLY Likelihood Exposure Result Risk Level 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Circle a numberDraw your lines above 2 VeryHigh High VeryLow LowMedium 6. Yes Final check, Risks Overlooked, Underestimated, Ignored, Rewarded? Do an act of safety. © 2009 SAFEmap International Pty. ✓ or ✖
  • 68.  1.  The  delusion  of  linearity   2.  The  delusion  of  human  error   3.  The  delusion  of  compliance   4.  The  delusion  of  consistency   5.  The  delusion  of  control   6.  The  delusion  of  quanBficaBon   7.  The  delusion  of  invulnerability  
  • 69.
  • 70.
  • 71.
  • 72. As  humans,  we  can  (uniquely)  be: !  Ina_enBve   !  Incompetent   !  ErraBc   !  Biased   !  ViolaBng   •  Lapsing •  Forgetful •  Unreliable •  Inconsistent •  Rigid and  complacent...!  
  • 73. As  humans,  we  can  (uniquely)  be: • Enduring   • Compassionate   • ImaginaBve   • Sacrificing   • Conquering   •  Heroic •  Passionate •  Inspirational •  Intuitive •  Adaptive
  • 74.
  • 75.
  • 77.
  • 78.
  • 79.
  • 81.
  • 82.
  • 83.
  • 84.
  • 85.
  • 86.
  • 87.
  • 89.
  • 90.
  • 92.
  • 93.
  • 94. Pressures   ExpectaBons   At-­‐risk   CircumvenBon     Perceptual   Technical  skills   Incompetence   Misjudgment   CogniBve  error   Erroneous   Risk  IncenBves   Safe  Punishment   Poor  Design   Risky  RouBnes     Delusions   Calculated   Careless   Reckless   Conformant  Inten=onal   IntenBonal   Inadvertent  
  • 95. Change   Train  Discipline   Coach   Pressures   ExpectaBons   At-­‐risk   CircumvenBon     Perceptual   Technical  skills   Incompetence   Misjudgment   CogniBve  error   Erroneous   Risk  IncenBves   Safe  Punishment   Poor  Design   Risky  RouBnes     Delusions   Calculated   Careless   Reckless   Conformant  Inten=onal   Discipline          Sanc=on            Warning          Punishment        Rebuke