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Predic'on	
  Markets	
  for	
  Fun	
  &	
  Prophet	
  
Jeffrey	
  Henning,	
  Founder	
  &	
  VP	
  of	
  Strategy	
  
2
12/23	
   CSAT	
  
Predic8on	
  Markets	
  
We	
  See	
  Others	
  Be@er	
  than	
  We	
  See	
  Ourselves	
  
!   Presented	
  at	
  2010	
  AMA	
  MRC	
  
!   Randy	
  Berkowitz,	
  VP	
  of	
  global	
  market	
  research	
  
!   Side-­‐by-­‐side	
  test	
  of	
  tradi8onal	
  survey	
  methodology	
  vs.	
  Infosurv’s	
  
predic8ve	
  market	
  method:	
  
!   4	
  concepts	
  tested	
  in	
  the	
  health	
  product	
  category	
  
!   5	
  concepts	
  tested	
  in	
  beauty	
  
!   Respondents	
  in	
  target	
  market	
  rated	
  many	
  
product	
  a@ributes	
  
!   “Traders”	
  allocated	
  virtual	
  dollars	
  to	
  concepts	
  
Combe	
  Case	
  Study	
  
Quotes	
  from	
  par8cipants	
  (recruited	
  through	
  a	
  survey	
  panel):	
  
!   “Excellent	
  way	
  to	
  judge	
  a	
  product.	
  Makes	
  one	
  think	
  of	
  the	
  best	
  
logic	
  and	
  back	
  it	
  up	
  since	
  money	
  is	
  on	
  the	
  line.”	
  
!   “I	
  loved	
  the	
  idea!	
  It	
  was	
  a	
  super	
  fun	
  way	
  to	
  preview	
  new	
  products	
  
and	
  get	
  feedback	
  on	
  what	
  other	
  people	
  think.”	
  
!   “I	
  loved	
  it.	
  You	
  should	
  have	
  more	
  of	
  these	
  to	
  
do.	
  They’re	
  fun,	
  and	
  it	
  helps	
  you	
  to	
  learn	
  more	
  about	
  stock	
  
market	
  trading.”	
  
	
   	
   	
   	
  Source:	
  Combe	
  
Predic8on	
  Markets	
  for	
  Fun…	
  
Predic'on	
  Market	
   Survey	
  
General	
  popula8on	
   Target	
  popula8on	
  
What	
  would	
  they	
  do?	
   What	
  would	
  you	
  do?	
  
Most	
  important	
  number	
   Dozens	
  of	
  metrics	
  
Variable	
  incen8ve	
  based	
  on	
  
performance	
  
Flat	
  incen8ve	
  
3-­‐4	
  days	
   3-­‐4	
  weeks	
  
50%	
  budget	
   100%	
  budget	
  
…and	
  Prophet	
  
Source:	
  Combe	
  
!   BrainJuicer	
  ran	
  215	
  
experiments	
  across	
  12	
  
categories	
  
!   Awarded	
  the	
  Best	
  
Methodology	
  Award	
  by	
  
ESOMAR…	
  
	
   	
  in	
  2005	
  
Old	
  News…	
  
!   Companies	
  reluctant	
  to	
  
abandon	
  norma8ve	
  
databases	
  
!   Product	
  launch	
  failures	
  can	
  
be	
  assigned	
  many	
  fathers…	
  
	
  besides	
  the	
  concept	
  test	
  
!   Early	
  adopters	
  have	
  
expensive-­‐to-­‐reach	
  target	
  
markets	
  
	
  
Old	
  News…	
  But	
  S8ll	
  News	
  
10
Ques8ons?	
  
Jeffrey	
  Henning	
  
Founder	
  &	
  VP	
  Strategy	
  
@jhenning	
  
jhenning@vovici.com	
  
1-­‐800-­‐787-­‐8755	
  x	
  550	
  
	
  
	
  

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Jeffrey henning gaming - 2011

  • 1. Predic'on  Markets  for  Fun  &  Prophet   Jeffrey  Henning,  Founder  &  VP  of  Strategy  
  • 4. We  See  Others  Be@er  than  We  See  Ourselves  
  • 5. !   Presented  at  2010  AMA  MRC   !   Randy  Berkowitz,  VP  of  global  market  research   !   Side-­‐by-­‐side  test  of  tradi8onal  survey  methodology  vs.  Infosurv’s   predic8ve  market  method:   !   4  concepts  tested  in  the  health  product  category   !   5  concepts  tested  in  beauty   !   Respondents  in  target  market  rated  many   product  a@ributes   !   “Traders”  allocated  virtual  dollars  to  concepts   Combe  Case  Study  
  • 6. Quotes  from  par8cipants  (recruited  through  a  survey  panel):   !   “Excellent  way  to  judge  a  product.  Makes  one  think  of  the  best   logic  and  back  it  up  since  money  is  on  the  line.”   !   “I  loved  the  idea!  It  was  a  super  fun  way  to  preview  new  products   and  get  feedback  on  what  other  people  think.”   !   “I  loved  it.  You  should  have  more  of  these  to   do.  They’re  fun,  and  it  helps  you  to  learn  more  about  stock   market  trading.”          Source:  Combe   Predic8on  Markets  for  Fun…  
  • 7. Predic'on  Market   Survey   General  popula8on   Target  popula8on   What  would  they  do?   What  would  you  do?   Most  important  number   Dozens  of  metrics   Variable  incen8ve  based  on   performance   Flat  incen8ve   3-­‐4  days   3-­‐4  weeks   50%  budget   100%  budget   …and  Prophet   Source:  Combe  
  • 8. !   BrainJuicer  ran  215   experiments  across  12   categories   !   Awarded  the  Best   Methodology  Award  by   ESOMAR…      in  2005   Old  News…  
  • 9. !   Companies  reluctant  to   abandon  norma8ve   databases   !   Product  launch  failures  can   be  assigned  many  fathers…    besides  the  concept  test   !   Early  adopters  have   expensive-­‐to-­‐reach  target   markets     Old  News…  But  S8ll  News  
  • 10. 10 Ques8ons?   Jeffrey  Henning   Founder  &  VP  Strategy   @jhenning   jhenning@vovici.com   1-­‐800-­‐787-­‐8755  x  550