This document discusses the difference between causal and arbitrary relationships. A causal relationship is when one variable directly causes another, like higher temperatures causing ice to melt. An arbitrary relationship is when two variables are correlated but it is unclear which influences the other, such as anxiety and depression where they likely influence each other. The document provides examples of questions that indicate a causal relationship through wording like "predicts" and advises that most relationship questions in social sciences actually refer to arbitrary relationships rather than truly causal ones.

1. Is the relationship in your
problem/question
causal or arbitrary?

2. By the end of this presentation you will be able
to determine if your relationship question is –

3. By the end of this presentation you will be able
to determine if your relationship question is –
Causal

4. By the end of this presentation you will be able
to determine if your relationship question is –
Causal
or

5. By the end of this presentation you will be able
to determine if your relationship question is –
Causal
or
Arbitrary

6. What is a causal relationship?

7. A causal relationship is a relationship where one
variable

8. A causal relationship is a relationship where one
variable (temperature)

9. A causal relationship is a relationship where one
variable (temperature)

10. A causal relationship is a relationship where one
variable (temperature) causes another variable

11. A causal relationship is a relationship where one
variable (temperature) causes another variable
(ice melting).

12. A causal relationship is a relationship where one
variable (temperature) causes another variable
(ice melting).

13. Causal relationships are hard to establish
because in order for it to be causal it must
always happen without exception.

14. For example,

15. Heat causes molecules to move and interact
more.

16. Heat causes molecules to move and interact
more.

17. Heat causes molecules to move and interact
more.

18. Heat causes molecules to move and interact
more.
There is hardly any
scenario where that
would not happen.

19. Heat causes molecules to move and interact
more.
And that is why this
relationship is called
causal.

20. The increase of temperature may influence ice
cream sales, but this is not considered a causal
relationship.

21. The increase of temperature may influence ice
cream sales, but this is not considered a causal
relationship.

22. The increase of temperature may influence ice
cream sales, but this is not considered a causal
relationship.
That’s because there will be times when this is
not the case, like when the price of ice-cream
ingredients increases dramatically thus driving
down the demand of ice-cream regardless of
the temperature.

23. In most social science statistics we speak of
causal relationships but what we really mean is
that one variable influences another variable.

24. In most social science statistics we speak of
causal relationships but what we really mean is
that one variable influences another variable.
Variable 1 causes Variable 2

25. In most social science statistics we speak of
causal relationships but what we really mean is
that one variable influences another variable.
Variable 1 causes Variable 2

26. In most social science statistics we speak of
causal relationships but what we really mean is
that one variable influences another variable.
Variable 1 causes Variable 2
Variable 1 INFLUENCES Variable 2

27. In most social science statistics we speak of
causal relationships but what we really mean is
that one variable influences another variable.
Variable 1 causes Variable 2
Variable 1 INFLUENCES Variable 2

28. With so-called causal relationships the
independent variable does the influencing:

29. With so-called causal relationships the
independent variable does the influencing:

30. With so-called causal relationships the
independent variable does the influencing:
Temperature

31. With so-called causal relationships the
independent variable does the influencing:

32. With so-called causal relationships the
independent variable does the influencing and
the dependent variable is what is effected

33. With so-called causal relationships the
independent variable does the influencing and
the dependent variable is what is effected

34. With so-called causal relationships the
independent variable does the influencing and
the dependent variable is what is effected

35. Here are some more examples:

36. Does illegal drug use influence lawlessness?
Independent
Variable

37. Does illegal drug use influence lawlessness?

38. Does illegal drug use influence lawlessness?
Dependent
Variable

39. Does teenage boredom influence thrill seeking?

40. Does teenage boredom influence thrill seeking?
Independent
Variable

41. Does teenage boredom influence thrill seeking?

42. Does teenage boredom influence thrill seeking?
Dependent
Variable

43. The wording you see in a word problem that
will give you a clue that you are working with a
“causal relationship” is the verb “predicts”.

44. For example,
Does stress predict anxiety?

45. For example,
Does stress predict anxiety?
Meaning you can tell the amount of anxiety
someone has, if you know the amount of stress
they are under.

46. If this is the case, then you will classify the
relationship as:

47. If this is the case, then you will classify the
relationship as:
Causal
Arbitrary

48. In other instances the relationship between two
variables is not causal but arbitrary.

49. In other instances the relationship between two
variables is not causal but arbitrary.
Causal
Arbitrary

50. Meaning we do not know what causes what, we
just know that:

51. Meaning we do not know what causes what, we
just know that:
- when one increases the other increases,

52. Meaning we do not know what causes what, we
just know that:
- when one increases the other increases,
- or when one decreases the other decreases,

53. Meaning we do not know what causes what, we
just know that:
- when one increases the other increases,
- or when one decreases the other decreases,
- or when one increases the other decreases.

54. We just don’t know which influences which.

55. We just don’t know which influences which.
Generally they most likely influence each other:

56. We just don’t know which influences which.
Generally they most likely influence each other:
Peace Probably influence and is
Honorable
influenced by Living

57. We just don’t know which influences which.
Generally they most likely influence each other:
Anxiety Probably influence and is
Depression influenced by

58. When we are not sure which is which, then this
becomes an arbitrary relationship as opposed
to a causal relationship.

59. When we are not sure which is which, then this
becomes an arbitrary relationship as opposed to
a causal relationship.
Causal
Arbitrary

60. Note – unless your relationship problem
specifies a causal relationship (with one variable
influencing directly another variable) then the
problem is most likely arbitrary.

61. What is the nature of your relationship
question?

62. What is the nature of your relationship
question?
Causal
or
Arbitrary