Ipsos MORI's second April Political Monitor looks at Britons' voting intentions, satisfaction with their senior politicians as well as what they expect the General Election's outcome to be.

1. 2015
POLITICAL MONITOR

2. VOTING
INTENTIONS

3. Voting Intention:
All giving an opinion vs. those “certain to vote”
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th -29th April 2015, all certain to vote = 791
3HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
34%
30%
9%
9%
9%
9%
All giving a voting intention: 83% All certain to vote: 74%
Conservative lead = +4 Conservative lead = +5
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
35%
30%
10%
8%
8%
9%

4. 30
35
10
8
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Apr03
Oct03
Apr04
Oct04
Apr05
Oct05
Apr06
Oct06
Apr07
Oct07
Apr08
Oct08
Apr09
Oct09
Apr10
Oct10
Apr11
Oct11
Apr12
Oct12
Apr13
Oct13
Apr14
Oct14
Apr15
Voting Intention: April ‘03 – April ’15
(all certain to vote)
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through February 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter
4HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
2005 General Election 2010 General Election
Cameron
elected
(Dec 05)
Brown
as PM
(June 07)
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM

5. How certain are Labour and Conservative supporters
in their intention to vote? Jan‘08 to April ‘15
5% OF SUPPORTERS “ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN TO VOTE”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR
83%
80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Dec07
Apr08
Aug08
Dec08
Apr09
Aug09
Dec09
Apr10
Aug10
Dec10
Apr11
Aug11
Dec11
Apr12
Aug12
Dec12
Apr13
Aug13
Dec13
Apr14
Aug14
Dec14
Apr15
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

6. SATISFACTION WITH THE
COALITION AND PARTY LEADERS

7. CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM GOVERNMENT
+6.0%
swing from 12-15 April
n/c
swing from 12-15 April
+0.5%
swing from 12-15 April
+5.0%
swing from 12-15 April
+3.5%
swing from 12-15 April
-2 Net -19 Net -25 Net -21 Net -11 Net
SATISFIED 46% SATISFIED 35% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 34% SATISFIED 41%
DISSATISFIED 48% DISSATISFIED 54% DISSATISFIED 56% DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 52%
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th – 29th April 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
7HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER/LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/UKIP?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
-100
+100

8. Satisfaction with Party leaders December ‘07 – April ‘15
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
8HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS
RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
35%
46%
34%
31%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Dec07
Apr08
Aug08
Dec08
Apr09
Aug09
Dec09
Apr10
Aug10
Dec10
Apr11
Aug11
Dec11
Apr12
Aug12
Dec12
Apr13
Aug13
Dec13
Apr14
Aug14
Dec14
Apr15
CAMERON BROWN MILIBAND CLEGG FARAGE

9. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
9HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Netsatisfaction
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

10. David Cameron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th – 29th April 2015
10ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
46%
48%
7%
April 2015 March 2006 – April 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-06
Jul-06
Nov-06
Jun-07
Oct-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
Apr-11
Aug-11
Dec-11
Apr-12
Aug-12
Dec-12
Apr-13
Aug-13
Dec-13
Apr-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Apr-15
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 46%
DISSATISFIED 48%
DON’T KNOW 7%
Net = -2
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

11. David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Base: 309 Conservative supporters 18+, 26th -29th April 2015
11ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
86%
9%
5%
April 2015 April 2006 – April 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Apr06
Aug06
Apr07
Aug07
Jan08
May08
Sep08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Dec-10
Apr-11
Aug-11
Dec-11
Apr-12
Aug-12
Dec-12
Apr-13
Aug-13
Dec-13
Apr-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Apr15
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 86%
DISSATISFIED 9%
DON’T KNOW 5%
Net = +77
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

12. Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2015)
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
12HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01)
Netsatisfaction
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

13. Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th – 29th April 2015
13ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY ED MILIBAND IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
35%
54%
11%
April 2015 October 2010 – April 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
SATISFIED 35%
DISSATISFIED 54%
DON’T KNOW 11%
Net = -19
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

14. Ed Miliband (satisfaction among Labour supporters)
Base: 259 Labour supporters 18+, 26th – 29th April 2015
14ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY ED MILIBAND IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
April 2015 October 2010 – April 2015
71%
21%
7%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
SATISFIED 71%
DISSATISFIED 21%
DON’T KNOW 7%
Net = +50
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

15. Nick Clegg (satisfaction)
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th – 29th April 2015
15ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NICK CLEGG IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ AS DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
34%
55%
11%
April 2015 January 2008 – April 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 34%
DISSATISFIED 55%
DON’T KNOW 11%
Net = -21
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

16. Nick Clegg (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)
Base: 84 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 26th – 29th April 2015. N.B. small base size indicative only
16ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NICK CLEGG IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ AS DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
73%
25%
2%
April 2015 January 2008 – April 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 73%
DISSATISFIED 25%
DON’T KNOW 2%
Net = +48
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

17. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th – 29th April 2015
17ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
31%
56%
13%
April 2015 March 2013 – April 2015
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 31%
DISSATISFIED 56%
DON’T KNOW 13%
Net = -25
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

18. Nigel Farage (satisfaction among UKIP supporters)
Base: 93 UKIP supporters, 26th -29th April 2015. N.B. small base size indicative only
18ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
91%
3%6%
April 2015 March 2013 – April 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 91%
DISSATISFIED 3%
DON’T KNOW 6%
Net = +88
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

19. VOTING
DECISIONS

20. Have the voters decided yet?
Base: 900 British adults 18+, 26th -29th April 2015
20HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ LABOUR PARTY/ LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/
GREENS/ UKIP/ SNP/PLAID CYMRU OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
12-15th April 2015 26 –29th April 2015
38%
60%
2%
34%
65%
1%
DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW

21. Have the voters decided yet? Trend
Base: 900 British adults 18+, 26th -29th April 2015
21HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ LABOUR PARTY/ LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/
GREENS/ UKIP/ SNP/PLAID CYMRU OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
43%
47% 48%
56%
65%
56%
51% 50%
41%
34%
2% 2% 2% 3%
1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Aug
2014
Sep
2014
Oct
2014
Nov
2014
Dec
2014
Jan
2015
Feb
2015
Mar
2015
Apr
2015
DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW

22. ELECTION
OUTCOMES

23. 11%
45%
6%
26%
1%
3% 8%
24%
37%
10%
22%
6%
March 2010
Which Election outcome is the most likely?
23
AS YOU PROBABLY KNOW, THE GENERAL ELECTION MAY RESULT IN A CLEAR MAJORITY FOR ONE PARTY THAT CAN MAKE DECISIONS
WITHOUT CONSULTING, OR IT MAY RESULT IN A HUNG PARLIAMENT WHERE NO PARTY HAS AN OVERALL MAJORITY SO PARTIES MUST
COMPROMISE AND REACH AGREEMENT TO MAKE DECISIONS.
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th – 29th April 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY
GOVERNMENT
A HUNG PARLIAMENT WITH THE
CONSERVATIVES AS THE
BIGGEST PARTY
A LABOUR MAJORITY
GOVERNMENT
A HUNG PARLIAMENT WITH
LABOUR AS THE BIGGEST PARTY
A HUNG PARLIAMENT WITH THE
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS AS THE
BIGGEST PARTY
OTHER
DON’T KNOW
April 2015
THINKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING DO YOU THINK IS
MOST LIKELY?
Hung parliament: 59% Hung parliament: 71%

24. In the event of a hung parliament, what’s the preferred
outcome?
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th -29th April 2015
24
IN THE EVENT OF A HUNG PARLIAMENT, WOULD YOU PREFER A MINORITY GOVERNMENT IN WHICH ONE SINGLE PARTY FORMS A
GOVERNMENT EVEN THOUGH IT DOESN’T HAVE A MAJORITY, OR WOULD YOU PREFER TO SEE A COALITION IN WHICH TWO OR MORE
PARTIES FORM A GOVERNMENT?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
60%
33%
5%
MINORITY GOVERNMENT COALITION DON’T KNOW

25. Preferred coalition partners
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th -29th April 2015
25
IF THERE IS A HUNG PARLIAMENT, AND THINKING ABOUT PARTIES OTHER THAN THE
CONSERVATIVES AND LABOUR,
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING PARTIES AND THEIR LEADER, IF ANY, WOULD YOU BE
HAPPY/UNHAPPY TO SEE HAVING INFLUENCE OVER THE NEXT GOVERNMENT?
HAPPY UNHAPPY
The Liberal Democrat party and
their leader Nick Clegg
The UK Independence Party and
their leader Nigel Farage
The Scottish National Party and
their leader Nicola Sturgeon
The Green Party and their leader
Natalie Bennett
Plaid Cymru and their leader
Leanne Wood
The Democratic Unionist Party
and their leader Peter Robinson 28%
21%
22%
44%
59%
21%
9%
22%
35%
28%
21%
49%

26. PARTIES &
GOVERNMENT

27. Britons’ ideal Cabinet
27
WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE PRIME MINISTER/CHANCELLOR/FOREIGN
SECRETARY/HOME SECRETARY/DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 26th -29th April 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Prime Minister
Chancellor
Foreign Secretary
Home Secretary
Deputy Prime Minister
David Cameron
Ed Miliband
George Osborne
Ed Balls
Phillip Hammond
Douglas Alexander
Theresa May
Yvette Cooper
Nick Clegg
Harriet Harman 39%
36%
36%
34%
31%
42%
45%
32%
47%
52%

28. 2015
POLITICAL MONITOR