This document provides an overview and framework for understanding how global drivers influence river basins and water, food, and development systems. It discusses 10 basin focal projects that examined these interlinked systems. While individual ecosystem services are understood to some degree, the complex interactions between societies and ecosystem services as development occurs represents both opportunities and risks. The framework aims to organize information on global drivers, identify how basins may respond to drivers through scenarios and learning, and relate responses to system resilience. The workshop aims to expand on concepts and scenarios to understand how global drivers can inform the Challenge Program on Water and Food.

1. Global drivers TWG
By Simon Cook
Chiang Mai, Thailand – September 2011

2. Overview
• Background insights form BFPs
• Rationale: Why we need to know about GDs
• Framework: How to organize info

3. Background from the
BFPs and elsewhere

4. The basin focal projects
• A global picture in 10 basins, LAC (2), Africa(4)
and Asia(4)
• Diverse conditions
– Biophysical, economic, political
• 10 teams, multi-disciplinary
• Started looking for water poverty
– …ended up defining inter-related systems of
water, food and development

5. Simple story:
• River basins provide a diversity of ecosystem services:
– provisioning regulating…
• Most of these are understood individually, to a degree
– Food systems, hydrology, environmental
flows, aquaculture….
• Societies exploit these ES as they develop
– Appropriate, invest, exchange, ruin…
• …development is influenced BY ESs …development
modifies ESs.
• This represents opportunities and risks

6. Put another way…

7. 1 Hydrology matters
Water: a fundamental but uncertain resource
Dry season flow (mcm/cap)
0.0014
0.0012
0.001
0.0008
0.0006
0.0004
0.0002
0
Ganges Indus Karkheh Limpopo Mekong Niger Nile Sao Fran. Volta Yellow
From CSIRO analysis

8. Distribution
varies widely

9. Nile
• Egypt needs every
drop [from Ethiopia]

10. Ganges
• Uncontrolled groundwater use
GW pumps in Indus-
Ganges basin
Photos: Fred Pearce
Map: Sharma et al, 2009

12. Mekong In most places this flood would be a
problem…..

13. To these people, flood = fish

14. But no simple link of water with poverty
5,000
4,000 Bangladesh
Bolivia
Brazil
3,000
GNI ($US/cap)
Burkina Faso
China
Colombia
2,000 Egypt, Arab Rep.
Ethiopia
India
1,000 Thailand
Vietnam
World
0
0.00E+00 2.00E-05 4.00E-05 6.00E-05 8.00E-05 1.00E-04
Water availability (km3/cap)

15. …even in very dry areas
5,000
4,000
Bangladesh
Bolivia
Brazil
3,000
GNI ($US/cap)
Burkina Faso
China
Colombia
2,000 Egypt, Arab Rep.
Ethiopia
India
1,000 Thailand
Vietnam
World
0
0.00E+00 1.00E-06 2.00E-06 3.00E-06 4.00E-06 5.00E-06
Water availability (km3/cap)

16. 2 Water productivity very low over
most areas
Wpr (estimated potential)
YR
IGB
Mekong
Nile
Limpopo
Volta Niger

17. 3 Institutions are key
Sao Francisco basin
2 worlds..haves and have-nots

18. Limpopo
These farmers have access to water

19. These farmers do not …

20. 4 Basins move along a development
trajectory
Niger
Agriculture as % of GDP
Volta
Nile
Limpopo IGB
Mekong
Karkheh
Yellow
Andes
São Francisco
Income
Rural poverty

21. …so the major issues vary according to position [as well as
ecosystem entitlements]
Niger
Agriculture only
Agriculture as % of GDP
Extreme poverty
Low WR development (no irrigation)
Volta
Complex LLH support
(Livestock and fish Nile dominate)
may
Limpopo IGB
Some sectors moving
Pressure on others
Agriculture ‘left behind?’
Mekong
Yellow Increased vulnerability
Karkheh
Markets very active
Rural poor in pockets
Andes
Improved potential Sao Fran
for
ecosystem services
Rural poverty

22. Agriculture
contribution to GDP
(%) ....Problems...
Gross National Income

23. Agriculture
contribution to GDP
(%) ... Opportunities
Basics need
Meeting urgent
demand growth Emerging need for
sustainability
Increasing Role for
Institutions Providing basics Big invest in agric.
Protecting existing support Resource-sharing & protection Benefit-sharing (trading)
Invest in agricultural basics Developing pathways out of Demand management
farming Supply-chain management
Gross National Income

24. A look at some of the drivers:
General economic growth
80
Burkina Faso
General
70 Ethiopia and direction Bangladesh
Contribution of agriculture to GDP growth (%)
Burkina Faso
in agricultural
Bolivia
60 phase of Brazil
development
India
50 Ethiopia
India and
Bangladesh
40 transitioning
to higher
value
30 activities
Brazil strong growth in the 60’s
and in recent years to emerge as
20 an industrial economy
Bolivia emerging
10 slowly after
decades of low
0
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
Per capita GNI (US$)

25. Population
Data from
CIESIN

26. Data from
CIESIN

27. GCC Crop Impacts for African Countries PRELIMINARY RESULTS
15.00
GCC
10.00 Major new
uncertainty
5.00
Oats
0.00
Potato
Ethiopia Kenya Niger Senegal
Bean, Common
Crop Loss/Gain
Wheat, common
-5.00
Barley
Maize
Cacao
-10.00
Sorghum (low altitude)
Perennial soybean
-15.00
-20.00
-25.00
Countries From Ramirez et
al, 2011

28. From Sharma et al, 2010

29. Rationale: why analyze global drivers?

30. Rationale: why define global drivers?
3 good reasons to study GDs 3 good reasons not to
• Widespread influence • Uncertain relevance
– helps understand global – “Does it really matter to the
importance of what is known BDC?”
in basins • Additional complexity
• GDs influence BDCs – Some models seem to have a
– Reduce some uncertainty life of their own
• Changes in BDCs may • Difficult to combine
represent responses of multiple concepts
regional / global importance – Quant/qual…mutliple
– Is PES a ‘global’ solution? objective…

31. Framework:
Organizing ideas about global drivers

32. Framework
relevance
Drivers Basins
Is development in Basins affected by global drivers?
Do BDCs support change of regional or global importance?

33. Framework:
Concepts
1 Analyze 2 Identify
drivers: responses to
•Population drivers in basins
•Economic •Scenarios…
•GCC •Learning
•Political processes
•Techno... •Changes
3 Relate to system
resilience

34. Framework
Impacts and change
3 places we can help
Drivers act on river
basin systems
Change
Consequences realized
Basin charateristics
Response
[Innovation?]

35. Framework: Identifying targets
Problematic Institutions Instruments Science
behaviours
Uncertainty Ignorance Families Norms Situation
analysis
Cannot Farmer Regulations
manage organizations Scenario
variability Policy (e.g. analysis
Cognitive Unable to Supply chain food, water
problems agree actors security) Technology
Law
Municipalities System
Lack of motive Short-termism Valuation analysis/design
for change Ministries
Local only Micro-finance
Lack of Can’t invest Micro-ins
capacity Can’t organize
Supply chains

36. Framework: Identifying targets
Problematic Institutions Instruments Science
behaviours
Uncertainty Ignorance Families Norms Situation
analysis
Cannot Farmer Regulations
manage organizations Scenario
variability Policy (e.g. analysis
Cognitive Unable to Supply chain food, water
problems agree actors security) Technology
Law
Municipalities System
Lack of motive Short-termism Valuation analysis/design
for change Ministries
Local only Micro-finance
Lack of Can’t invest Micro-ins
capacity Can’t organize
Linking components to enable
Supply chains
CHANGE

37. Framework
Process
• First ideas
– Draft (very rough) – done
• Workshop (now!)
– to expand concepts
• Re-draft framework, reorganize
• Forum
– Present ideas to a broader audience
• Re-draft framework
– Present to CPMT. Decide how to proceed

38. Agenda for next 3 days
• Information sharing:
– “Basins meet GDs, GDs meet basins.”
• Future scenarios for basins
– Let your mind run free for a few hours
• Putting GDs in the CPWF harness
– “This is all very interesting. What does it mean for
the CPWF?”