1. Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full-service brokerage and equities-research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of
ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures and analyst
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Anand Rathi Research India Equities
Technology
Company Update
India I Equities
Mohit Jain
Research Analyst
+9122 6626 6531
mohitjain@rathi.com
Shobit Singhal
Research Associate
+9122 6626 6511
shobitsinghal@rathi.com
Key financials (YE Mar) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e
Sales (` m) 18,913 23,123 28,784 30,783 34,575
Net profit (` m) 2,906 2,974 3,015 3,319 4,098
EPS (`) 36.3 37.2 37.7 41.5 51.2
Growth (%) 16.6 2.3 1.4 10.1 23.5
PE (x) 18.1 17.7 17.4 15.8 12.8
PBV (x) 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.2
RoE (%) 22.1 19.5 17.0 16.5 18.1
RoCE (%) 20.5 19.2 16.2 14.7 17.2
Dividend yield (%) 1.3 2.4 1.1 1.8 2.7
Net debt/equity (x) -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research *Notes- Adjusted
sequentially.
,
Rating: Buy
Target Price: `800
Share Price: `657
Key data PSYS IN / PERS.BO
52-week high / low `710/ `501
Sensex / Nifty 32029/9915
3-m average volume $2.1m
Market cap `53bn/$819m
Shares outstanding 80m
Shareholding pattern (%) June'17 Mar'17 Dec'16
Promoters 30.7 35.0 36.2
- of which, Pledged
Free float 69.3 65.0 63.8
- Foreign institutions 22.3 20.8 21.5
- Domestic institutions 14.1 14.3 13.5
- Public 32.9 29.9 28.8
22 July 2017
Persistent Systems
Revenues in-line, deferred wage hikes to help margins; Buy
Persistent had an operationally good quarter with US$ revenues
growing at 3.6%qoq, top 10 clients growing at 9%qoq, 3 accounts
moving to >US$3m bracket, and revenue per client going up. This was
achieved with reduction in headcount (-64 net). However, margin
performance was weak for two reasons – currency (offshore rev are
59%) and SG&A investments (PARX acquisition, visa exp, and hiring).
Wage hikes are deferred to 2H and hence, 1Q miss can be reversed
during FY18. We maintain buy rating with TP of `800.
Traditional business bounces back; Digital takes a breather. Persistent
reported in-line revenues at US$113m, +3.6%qoq and +7.8%yoy. The
surprise this quarter was growth in the two traditional businesses (Services
+5%qoq and Alliance – ex IoT, +10%qoq). The focus businesses of Digital
and Accelerite disappointed with a decline of -1.3%qoq and -10%qoq, pulling
down margins (Digital margins -351bps qoq, Accelerite -473bps qoq). In
addition, 70bps one-time expenses were incurred towards visa and acquisition
related travel. EBITDA margins were 14.3%, -257bps qoq* and -73bps yoy.
Acquires PARX (Salesforce Platinum Partner in Europe) for US$8.5m
(+US$7.5m earn-outs after 3Y). PARX (CY16 Rev US$8.5m, +28% over
CY15-17) has worked for 300 customers and has operations in Switzerland,
Germany, and Austria. Focus industry verticals are consumer goods,
manufacturing, and services but works across industries. Interesting
acquisition as it fetches enterprise customers and improves PSYS’ Europe
footprint (just 6% of Rev currently). Margins were not disclosed but we are
building in ~6% EBITDA in our estimates.
Estimates largely retained adj for currency, maintain Buy. We cut our
earnings estimates by ~4%/2% each for FY18/FY19e, factoring in
Rs64.5/US$, deferred wage hikes, and PARX. We retain a Buy, with target of
`800, at 16x FY19e EPS. Risk: Sharp rupee appreciation.
Relative price performance
Source: Bloomberg
PSYS
Sensex
550
600
650
700
750
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Estimates revision (%) FY18e FY19e
Sales($) 1.6 2.1
EBITDA (9.3) (4.7)
PAT (4.2) (2.0)
Change in Estimates Target Reco
4. 22 July 2017 Persistent Systems – Revenues in-line, deferred wage hikes to help margins; Buy
Anand Rathi Research 4
Conference Call Takeaways
Company
Impact on margins in Q1FY18- lower offshore utilization impacted
40bps, Currency impacted 120bps, visa cost and PARX acquisition
impacted 70bps, incremental onsite hiring impacted 30bps and
provisioning of bad debts impacted 40bps.
Hike in wages is deferred from July to October for some employees
and from July to January for others.
The rise in `200m for cost of professional is due to hiring of special
skill professional for new projects which is of recurring nature.
Acquisition of PARX- Acquired for consideration of upfront $8.5mn
and $7.5m after 3 years based on earn-outs. PARX reported revenues
of CHF 8mn (~`54cr) in 2016 and consists of 80 people in its
workforce (including contractors). The company is profitable although
PSYS did not disclose its EBITDA margins.
Management restated that last quarter they managed to move some
IBM employees to lower cost geographies. Thus, can expect better
management on margins in the IBM alliance going forward.
The company’s product business, Accelerite declined sequentially this
quarter due to settlement dispute with one of the customers. Overall
pipeline is robust and expects this segment to do well.
Notes from the last two quarters’ conference calls
From Q4FY17
Revenue growth is expected to be in double digits as Accelerite,
Alliance and Digital are expected to continue their growth momentum.
Services may continue to be a drag on overall growth rates.
FY18 margins are likely to be better than FY17, as IoT breakseven and
some benefits of non-linearity start coming in.
From Q3FY17
The services business (44% of revenue) may have constrained growth
but the balance (56% of revenue) would grow fast.
The IBM IoT business is likely to break even in FY18. Costs are fixed
and hence may not increase in FY18. There are additional levers to
reduce costs.
5. 22 July 2017 Persistent Systems – Revenues in-line, deferred wage hikes to help margins; Buy
Anand Rathi Research 5
Factsheet
Fig 9 – Revenue split
(%) Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18
Effort-Led 71.8 72.2 71.6 72.4 72.8
IP-Led 28.2 27.8 28.4 27.6 27.2
Source: Company
Fig 10 – Revenue-split, by region
(%) Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18
North America 87.0 85.4 86.6 86.5 85.5
Europe 5.2 6.1 5.3 5.3 5.9
Asia-Pacific 7.8 8.5 8.1 8.2 8.6
Source: Company
Fig 11 – Revenue-split, by segment
($m) Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18
Services 49.9 49.0 48.3 47.9 50.3
Digital 15 16 19 21 20
Alliance 31.4 30.9 33.7 30.1 33.0
Accelerite 9 9 9 10 9
Source: Company
Fig 12 – Client concentration
(%) Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18
Top 1 29.0 28.4 29.5 26.5 27.9
Top 5 44.7 44.3 46.0 43.3 45.7
Top 10 52.7 52.8 54.6 52.4 55.2
Source: Company
Fig 13 – Workforce
(%) Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18
Employee Movement
Technical(EOP) 8,698 8,612 8,562 8,808 8,744
Net Adds (Qtr) 80 -86 -50 246 -64
Net Adds (LTM) 888 707 228 190 46
Utilization % 75.3 74.2 78.9 77.8 77.2
Attrition % 16.7 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.5
Sales(EOP) 204 207 200 193 210
Net Adds (Qtr) 3 3 (7) (7) 17
Net Adds (LTM) (12) (1) (3) (8) 6
Source: Company
6. 22 July 2017 Persistent Systems – Revenues in-line, deferred wage hikes to help margins; Buy
Anand Rathi Research 6
Fig 14 – Revenue-split, by delivery type and billing rates
Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18
Delivery type (%)
On-site 26.3 26.3 26.7 27.8 29.9
Offshore 45.5 45.5 44.9 44.6 42.9
Reported billing rates ($ /hr)
On-site 82.6 86.1 84.0 85.1 85.8
Offshore 23.1 22.9 22.8 22.7 22.5
Source: Company
Fig 15 – Key geographies and horizontals growth (%)
(%) Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18
Horizontals growth (qoq)
Services NA -1.7% -1.5% -0.9% 5.0%
Digital NA 7.5% 16.3% 10.8% -1.3%
Alliance NA -2% 9% -11% 10%
Accelerite NA 8% 2% 11% -10%
Key area-wise growth (yoy)
North America 37.4 25.6 24.6 9.1 6.0
Europe 10.0 13.7 3.3 (14.1) 22.4
Asia-Pacific 11.8 54.0 18.3 23.6 18.9
Source: Company
Fig 16 – Segment-wise growth (yoy)
(%) Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18
Effort-Led 17.4 9.2 10.0 9.5 9.2
IP-Led 103.7 117.7 73.5 6.1 4.3
Source: Company
7. 22 July 2017 Persistent Systems – Revenues in-line, deferred wage hikes to help margins; Buy
Anand Rathi Research 7
Valuations
The stock trades at 12.8x FY19e EPS of `51.2. This, we reckon, is
attractive, given that Persistent has a differentiated range of service
offerings and is expected to grow at a faster-than-industry rate of ~10%,
organically.
With a strong balance sheet (cash balance: ~$140m) and cash-flow
generation (CFO:NI ~90%), it is one of the best midcap IT stocks, which
could command a higher multiple if growth accelerates. The company is
likely to touch $536m in revenue by FY19, helping it morph into a
reasonably large and differentiated IT-services company.
Also, it has margin levers in the business, primarily the offshore mix and
utilisation to absorb potential headwinds in margins. More than 50% of
Persistent’s business is non-linear (or not dependent on T&M billing),
giving it a potential margin upswing if the growth here turns out to be
higher.
Its reliance on one client is at present a high 28%, but that gives it a better
positioning to grow faster by aligning its interests with its largest client.
We value Persistent based on a target PE of 16x FY19e EPS, similar to
Mindtree and Cyient. This reflects constrained profitability and the
potential to grow faster than the industry.
Fig 17 – Change in estimates
FY18 FY19
New Old Chg % New Old Chg %
Revenues ($m) 477 470 1.6 536 525 2.1
Revenues (`m) 30,783 31,335 (1.8) 34,575 35,001 (1.2)
EBITDA (`m) 4,842 5,336 (9.3) 5,990 6,287 (4.7)
EBITDA margin % 16% 17% (130) 17% 18% (64)
EBIT (`m) 3,294 3,742 (12.0) 4,369 4,574 (4.5)
EBIT margin % 10.7% 11.9% (124) 12.6% 13.1% (43)
PBT 4,399 4,563 (3.6) 5,419 5,510 (1.7)
Net profit 3,319 3,464 (4.2) 4,098 4,183 (2.0)
Source: Anand Rathi Research
Fig 18 – PE band
Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research
Risks
Sharp rupee appreciation.
5
9
13
17
21
25
Sep-11
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Apr-14
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Jul-17
PSYS
8. Appendix
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this Research Report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the
compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research
analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts are bound by stringent internal regulations and also legal and statutory requirements of the Securities and Exchange
Board of India (hereinafter “SEBI”) and the analysts’ compensation are completely delinked from all the other companies and/or entities of Anand Rathi, and have
no bearing whatsoever on any recommendation that they have given in the Research Report.
Important Disclosures on subject companies
Rating and Target Price History (as of 21 July 2017)
Persistent
10
7
1
2
3
4
5
6 8
9
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Date Rating
TP
(`)
Share
Price (`)
1 30-Sep-14 Buy 975 693
2 05-Jan-15 Buy 1,000 932
3 28-Jan-15 Hold 975 902
4 09-Apr-15 Buy 930 780
5 24-Jun-15 Buy 860 647
6 08-Apr-16 Buy 950 727
7 26-Jul-16 Buy 900 664
8 25-Oct-16 Buy 875 662
9 21-Dec-16 Buy 840 609
10 25-Apr-17 Buy 800 568
Anand Rathi Ratings Definitions
Analysts’ ratings and the corresponding expected returns take into account our definitions of Large Caps (>US$1bn) and Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn) as described
in the Ratings Table below:
Ratings Guide (12 months)
Buy Hold Sell
Large Caps (>US$1bn) >15% 5-15% <5%
Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn) >25% 5-25% <5%
Research Disclaimer and Disclosure inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014
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