Southern Hemisphere Adaptation Collaboratory


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Southern Hemisphere Adaptation Collaboratory

  1. 1. Southern Hemisphere Adaptation Collaboratory Dr. Francisco J. Meza Director Centro de Cambio Global UC Mark Stafford Smith CSIRO Patricia Pinho INPE Santiago 13-14 de noviembre de 2013
  2. 2. A Collaboratory - background 1. Adaptation is highly context specific at multiple levels of governance – broad general approaches do not satisfy practitioners – need impacts from climate change scenarios in context of other changes e.g. population trends, development, etc 2. Adaptation options often highly local – some opportunity to generalise within specific decision areas such as– some opportunity to generalise within specific decision areas such as the water domain or local government coastal infrastructure decisions – practitioners need to learn across locations but be local 3. Investors need to assess whether adaptation investments are effective – But monitoring adaptation action is proving difficult. • Many approaches – to delivering more local information, supporting local adaptation planning processes and even action, and perhaps monitoring, but...
  3. 3. The level of use to ensure “Social Foundation” Raworth, 2012
  4. 4. Raworth, 2012 Maintain a safe and resilient Planet “Environmental ceiling”)
  5. 5. IPCC 2007: 1.1-6.4°C? – probably not any more IPCC (2007) Summary for Policy Makers (Fig.SPM.5) 2°C: 2065±10y??
  6. 6. Adaptation: Towards Sustainable Agriculture Howden et al. (2010).
  7. 7. Managing the risk from diverging possible futures Recovery Stabilisation Runaway 1 2 3 4 5 6 MeanGlobalWarming(°C) Three scenarios for the future Recovery 0 1 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Year MeanGlobalWarming( MEP2030 A1FI-GaR MEP2010 (Overshoot) Incremental adaptation to changes of reasonable certainty possible Adaptation must increasingly manage the risk of divergent possible futures, and need for transformation Stafford Smith et al 2011, Phil.Trans.Roy.Soc. 369
  8. 8. Are we adapting? • Growing literature on failure to act on adaptation » Tompkins et al. (2010). Observed adaptation to climate change: UK... Global Environmental Change » Berrang-Ford et al. (2011). Are we adapting to climate change? Global Environmental Change – Actually lots happening locally, etc, but also big gaps » And most organisations are still, at best, planning but not» And most organisations are still, at best, planning but not doing » When they are doing it is not necessarily (or often) badged as adaptation » Measuring it is hard • What is inhibiting decisions? – Move to a decision support/solutions-oriented framing • Is the limitation information? Or social processes? » Values and institutions 9 |
  9. 9. Adaptation science: three perspectives, all needed Adaptation information and decision-making Evaluation, adaptation pathways, future scenarios, risk management modes, etc Adaptation options and technologies Cultivars, materials, farming systems, urban planning, etc Adaptive behaviours and institutions Behaviours, incentives, barriers, adaptive capacity, vulnerabilities, etc
  10. 10. Willows & Connell 2003 UKCIP Problem or solution-centred?? IPCC
  11. 11. History and context • IAV meeting in San Jose dos Campos, Brazil, Nov 2009: • Lahsen et al. (2010). Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2, 364-374. » “Producing impacts, vulnerability and adaptation knowledge requires greater inclusion of MLIC researchers and a rethinking of the research structures, institutions and paradigms that have dominated global change research to date.” • 1st Intl Adaptation Conference, Gold Coast, Australia 2010 • Discussions in Chile Oct 2010, La Serena 2011• Discussions in Chile Oct 2010, La Serena 2011 • 2nd Intl Adaptation Conference, Arizona, USA, 2011 Diverse efforts globally - >300 products/processes reviewed – ...but limited convergence or sustainability – PROVIA 1 2 |
  12. 12. Adaptation timing and priorities Today’s decisions must account for how long their effects will be felt Stafford Smith et al, PhilTransRoySoc 2011 (after Jones & McInnes 2004)
  13. 13. A Collaboratory - 2 Proposed purpose – To provide a modular decision support portal for climate adaptation decision-making in the Southern Hemisphere, as a one stop shop for future scenarios, sectoral adaptation options, tools for adaptation planning and decision-making, and an insight into levels of adaptation activity. – Who is it aimed at and why? adaptation decision-makers in government and society, to support adaptation readiness and track action Proposed outputs a. a well-recognised web-based portal for adaptation which supplies a consistent set of background information and tools for adaptation planning and decision-making, and provides a standardised framework to support country and sector specific information; b. a two-way interactive capacity to absorb and make available credible information about adaptation options for different sectors and circumstances; c. the ability to contribute to tracking levels of adaptation responses across the regions.
  14. 14. A Collaboratory - 3 Possible components/scope i. Well-targeted climate and wider social scenarios of the future, as well as key locally-resolved national datasets and information on potential impacts drawn from various sources for each country ii. Guides for use of scenarios that take account of behavioural aspects, help with choice of vulnerability methods, etc iii. Suite of planning tools, such as adaptation planning processes, economic and other assessment methods, etceconomic and other assessment methods, etc iv. Two-way interactive documentation of adaptation options for sectors regarded as key in each participating country, and decision types within each sector, with capacity for user entry/accreditation/testing v. Process for identifying and documenting barriers to adaptation, for the information of other levels of governance, etc vi. Mechanism for starting to track actual adaptation responses across key sectors
  15. 15. Southern Hemisphere commonalities: comparative advantages?
  16. 16. Proposed Themes (Initial Focus) • 1. Infrastructure • 2. Food (Water) Security
  17. 17. AguaScapes Innovative Science and Influential Policy Dialogues for Water Security in the Arid Americas In keywords: global change research, policy Project AguaScapes Case Studies in AguaScapes Case Study Maipo & Elqui Basin In keywords: global change research, policy engagement with stakeholders, 5 participating countries • Emphasis on water security • 5 “principal basins” and 5 “analogue basins” • Project runs until 2017 25/11/2013 18Francisco Meza
  18. 18. AguaScapes Research Approach 25/11/2013 19Francisco Meza
  19. 19. Thank you Francisco MezaFrancisco Meza Director - Center for Global Change Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile