In order to maximise the benefits of regional integration and look for new opportunities for competitiveness, policymakers, the private sector and development partners need access to accurate and comprehensive data on intra and inter-regional trade in Africa with respect to agricultural goods. It is in this context that CTA and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) are launching the “African Agricultural Trade Status Report”, which examines the current status, trends and outlook in African trade performance, making an important contribution towards data and analysis of developments both at regional and at continental levels. The Report, which is released in conjunction with the Briefing, builds on the work by the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS) of CAADP and the African Growth and Development Policy Modeling Consortium (AGRODEP) trade and also reflects the CTA’s commitment to advancing knowledge and sharing of best practices relating to agricultural trade. The Brussels Development Briefing n.47 on the subject of “Regional Trade in Africa: Drivers, Trends and Opportunities” took place on 3rd February 2017 in Brussels at the ACP Secretariat (Avenue Georges Henri 451, 1200 Brussels) from 09:00 to 13:00. This Briefing was organised by the ACP-EU Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA), in collaboration with IFPRI, the European Commission / DEVCO, the ACP Secretariat, and CONCORD .

1. Executive summary
African Agricultural
Trade Status Report
2017

2. Executive summary
To maximise the benefits of regional integration and look for new opportunities
to improve competitiveness, African policymakers, the private sector and
development partners need access to accurate and comprehensive data on intra
and inter-regional trade with respect to agricultural goods. It is in this context
that the ACP-EU Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation
(CTA) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
commissioned the African Agricultural Trade Status Report, which examines
the current status, trends and outlook in African trade performance, making an
important contribution towards data and analysis of developments both at
regional and at continental levels.
The Report builds on the work by the African Growth and Development Policy
Modelling Consortium (AGRODEP) and the Regional Strategic Analysis and
Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS) of CAADP and trade and also reflects
the CTA’s commitment to advancing knowledge and sharing of best practices
relating to agricultural trade.
In addition to accurate data to assist policy-makers to take informed decisions,
this collaboration aims at maximising the input from the highest African
analytical capacity on agricultural trade and strengthen an African pool of
expertise through AGRODEP.
Regional trade within Africa and between the various regions will offer the
biggest opportunities in the near future for the local private sector, SMEs and
producers and value chain actors. In this context, CTA and IFPRI believe that
an annual African trade report is needed and that for the next editions, a broader
range of partners would join this initiative.

3. Trade provides the potential for improving consumer welfare and producer incomes, boosting
overall economic growth, and reducing poverty. In Africa, increased and more diversified
agricultural trade on the global and regional levels could provide leverage for efforts to raise
productivity at all stages of the value chain, and facilitate the transformation of agriculture into a
high-productivity sector providing adequate incomes for producers and stimulating growth
throughout the economy. Increasing agricultural trade also has the potential to improve food
security and contribute to stabilizing local and regional food markets by making them less
vulnerable to shocks.
In addition to the benefits of global trade, intra-regional trade has increasingly been recognized as
a key element of efforts to increase food security and agricultural development in Africa. The 18th
African Union Summit in 2012 was organized under the theme of “Boosting Intra-African Trade.”
In 2014, African leaders committed to tripling intra-African trade in agricultural commodities and
services by 2025, as one of a limited number of commitments in the Malabo Declaration on
Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved
Livelihoods. The trade commitment included accelerating the establishment of a Continental Free
Trade Area and a continental Common External Tariff and taking measures to increase investments
in trade infrastructure and enhance Africa’s position in international trade negotiations.
Despite longstanding recognition of the benefits of trade and the importance of improving Africa’s
competitiveness, the continent is performing beneath its potential in global and regional
agricultural markets. Recent increases in exports have been offset by even larger growth in imports,
leading to a deterioration in Africa’s trade balance. Intra-regional trade in Africa is growing, but
remains significantly below the levels seen in other regions. These challenges result from a host
of factors, including historical trends and more recent developments inside and outside of Africa.
Action on many fronts is needed to remove constraints to improving the competitiveness of
Africa’s producers.
Highlights
The African Agricultural Trade Status Report (TSR) provides detailed descriptive assessments of
the current status and recent trends in Africa’s trade performance and competitiveness at the
continental and regional levels, as well as more in-depth investigations of the determinants of trade

4. performance and the relative importance of different drivers and constraints. The goal of the report
is to provide comprehensive and timely evidence and analysis on the status of African trade in
order to inform policy discussions on measures to enhance trade performance at the global and
regional level. In addition to the introductory and concluding chapters, the report is divided into
five chapters presenting findings on Africa’s trade performance and outlook.
Chapter two reviews trends and patterns in Africa’s global agricultural trade since 1998. The
chapter finds that although agricultural exports more than doubled between 1998 and 2013,
imports increased fivefold, leading to a growing trade deficit. The main drivers of this surge in
imports are rapid population growth and urbanisation, income changes due to economic growth,
and changes in dietary patterns. Among the major Regional Economic Communities (RECs), only
the SADC region has maintained a consistent trade surplus over the last decade.
The chapter finds that despite the increase in agricultural exports, the share of agricultural exports
in Africa’s total exports has declined by half over the period, due to more rapidly rising exports in
minerals and oil. Africa’s agricultural exports show signs of moderate diversification over the
period, while imports have remained fairly stable. The EU remains Africa’s top trading partner,
but both imports from and exports to the EU have dropped over the period, while trade with Asia
has doubled; Asia is likely to take the EU’s place as Africa’s top trading partner if these trends
continue. Recent efforts to pursue increased economic integration have resulted in significantly
increased intra-regional trade during the period, although the overall level of intra-regional trade
remains low.
Chapter three examines patterns in intra-regional trade at the continental level and among major
RECs, namely ECOWAS, ECCAS, COMESA, and SADC. The chapter finds that intra-African
agricultural trade has expanded significantly since 1998, increasing at about 12 percent per year in
value terms. However, the share of intra-African trade in total African trade is still very low
compared to other regions or continents. For example, 20 percent of Africa’s trade was intra-
regional in 2013, compared to around 40 percent among American countries, 63 percent among
Asian countries and 75 percent among European countries. Obstacles to better performance of
intra-regional trade in Africa include weak productive capacity and the lack of trade-related
infrastructure and services.

5. The largest increase in intra-REC trade in the past decade and a half took place in the ECCAS
region, while the slowest increase was in the SADC region. The chapter finds that ECOWAS
shows the highest regional trade integration, as measured by the ratio of intra-REC trade to the
REC’s trade with Africa; ECCAS shows the lowest. COMESA and SADC play larger roles as
destinations for and origins of African trade than do the other two RECs.
Chapter four reviews the changes in competitiveness of exports of different countries and different
agricultural products over the past three decades, and investigates the determinants of these
changes through econometric analysis. The chapter aims to shed light on the factors behind recent
improvements in trade performance in order to further accelerate gains and reduce trade deficits.
The chapter finds that most RECs saw their member countries maintain or increase their
competitiveness in global and regional markets, with the exception of ECCAS, whose member
countries tended to lose competitiveness. Improvements in the competitiveness of COMESA,
ECOWAS and SADC member countries took place primarily in intra-regional markets. The
majority of African export commodities gained competitiveness in global markets, with some
exceptions; however, the most competitive commodities account for a fairly small share of exports.
Africa’s top five most competitive commodities in global markets represent only 1.8 percent of
African exports to these markets, suggesting potential for expanding exports by leveraging
competitiveness gains among emerging export products. The chapter finds that determinants of
competitiveness improvements include the ease of doing business, institutional quality, the size of
the domestic market, and the quality of customs.
Chapter five examines the factors contributing to Africa’s improved agricultural export
performance, using a gravity model to assess the importance of different determinants of trade and
of the constraints to further improving exports. The study finds that supply side constraints,
including production capacity and the cost of trade, affect trade performance to a greater extent
than demand side constraints, which include trade policies and agricultural supports in importing
countries. This suggests a focus on removing domestic constraints to increased trade, including by
improving infrastructure and increasing agricultural productivity. For example, the study finds that
a 1 percent increase in land productivity increases trade flows to the global market by about 6
percent and to the African market by 7 percent. The chapter also finds that non-tariff barriers to
trade are increasing and present larger obstacles to exports than do tariffs. The chapter highlights

6. the potential of regional economic communities to promote the removal of barriers to trade at both
the regional and global levels, as well as the continued importance of global cooperation to
facilitate trade.
Chapter six focuses on the outlook for expanding intra-regional trade within West Africa, the
feature region of this report, and the potential effects of expanded trade on regional food markets.
The chapter finds that the distribution of production volatility among West African countries
suggests significant potential to lessen the impacts of domestic shocks through increased regional
trade, while patterns in agricultural production and trade show scope for increasing regional trade
levels. Analysis of a simulation model suggests that intra-regional trade will continue to increase
under current trends. Intra-regional trade growth can be accelerated through even modest
reductions in trading costs, modest increases in crop yields, or a reduction in trade barriers. In
particular, intra-regional trade in cereals during the 2008–2025 period is expected to increase by
23 percent over baseline trends following a 10 percent reduction in overall trading costs; by 36
percent following a removal of harassment costs; and by 33 percent following a 10 percent increase
in crop yields. The increased intra-regional trade resulting from these changes would reduce food
price volatility in regional markets.
The TSR chapters demonstrate undeniable improvements in Africa’s trade performance over the
past decade and a half, in both global and regional markets, as reflected by generally increasing
competitiveness for the majority of countries and commodities. However, progress has been
uneven, with some regions and countries consistently underperforming others. Challenges remain
in further enhancing Africa’s competitiveness on the global market and in increasing intra-regional
trade, which remains below its potential despite significant recent improvements. The findings of
chapter four point to the importance of the institutional and business environment in improving a
country’s export competitiveness, while chapter five also emphasizes the role of domestic factors
in increasing exports, including production capacity and trading costs. Chapter six focuses on the
West Africa region, demonstrating the role of potential domestic and regional policy actions to
increase intra-regional trade and enhance the stability of regional markets.
The chapters suggest a series of recommendations for policymakers, including efforts at the
country and regional level to increase agricultural productivity along the value chain, improve

7. market access, and improve the functioning of institutions; regional actions to enhance economic
integration; and continent-wide efforts to promote trade facilitation in international negotiations.
Policy actions such as these can influence the trends described in this report and accelerate
improvements in Africa’s trade performance, thereby increasing incomes and improving food
security across the continent.