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IMPACT OF GLOBAL RECESSION ON
       INDIAN ECONOMY




           Manuel M Mathew
           ST.Thomas College Pala
WHAT IS RECESSION???

 The   reduction of a country’s
    Gross Domestic Product(GDP)
    growth rate for at least two
    quarters

   A recession is a contraction
    phase of business cycle
DEFINITION

 Significant
            decline in economic activity
 lasting more than a few months,which is
 normally visible in real GDP ,real
 income,employment,industrial production
 and wholesale-retail sales
ACID TEST OF RECESSION

     PEOPLE BUYING LESS STUFF


      DECREASE IN FACTORY
  PRODUCTION


      GROWING UNEMPLOYMENT


      SLUMP IN PERSONAL INCOME


      AN UNHEALTHY STOCK MARKET
CURRENT GLOBAL SCENARIO

EUROZONE(PIIGS)-SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS

USA-TWIN DEFICIT(FISCAL & CURRENT ACCOUNT)

CHINA-RECORDING DOWNWARD GROWYH

JAPAN-TRADE DEFICIT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
LAST IN LAST32 YEARS
INDIAN SCENARIO
   WEAK INDUSTRIAL GROWTH


   SLOWDOWN IN INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES   7.6%

   DIP IN OUTPUT GROWTH


   INFLATIONARY RISK


   DEPRECIATION OF RUPEE
                                        6.9%
IMPACT ON TRADE

             INDIA




           ADVANCED
           COUNTRIES

REVENUE                  EXPORT
DECLINES                DECLINES


           DEVELOPING
           COUNTRIES
IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKET

     SHARP DECLINE OF EQUITIY PRICES


     REVERSAL OF FIIs


     DEPRECIATION OF RUPEE AGAINT USD




                  57.15 !
CONFIDENCE CHANNELS

   FALL IN BUSINESS MOMENTUM


   LOST CONFIDENCE


   RELUCTANT TO INITIATE NEW VENTURES


   EVEN RBI GIVES A VAGUE EAPLANATION
MEASURES TAKEN BY INDIA
   SEBI LIBERALISED ITS NORMS TO ATTRACT QFIs

   CAP ON GOVT. SECURITIES ENHANCED

   MEASURES TO ATTRACT NRI DEPOSITS

   GOVT.’S PLAN OF HUGE INFRASTRUCTURAL
    INVESTMENT

   INCENTIVES FOR EXPORT PROMOTION
A RAY OF HOPE FROM EUROPE……


   EUROZONE AGREES FOR BANKING UNION

   EMERGING ROLE OF ECB

   IMFs BAIL OUT FUND OF $750bn TO EUROZONE
TO CONCLUDE……
   ATTRACT MORE FOREIGN INVESTMENT

   STRENGTHEN DOMESTIC MARKET

   SWIFTER IMPLEMENTATION OF NMP

   AUGMENTING INFRASTUCTURAL
    DEVELOPMENT
THANK YOU……..

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India recession

  • 1. IMPACT OF GLOBAL RECESSION ON INDIAN ECONOMY Manuel M Mathew ST.Thomas College Pala
  • 2. WHAT IS RECESSION???  The reduction of a country’s Gross Domestic Product(GDP) growth rate for at least two quarters  A recession is a contraction phase of business cycle
  • 3. DEFINITION  Significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months,which is normally visible in real GDP ,real income,employment,industrial production and wholesale-retail sales
  • 4. ACID TEST OF RECESSION PEOPLE BUYING LESS STUFF DECREASE IN FACTORY PRODUCTION GROWING UNEMPLOYMENT SLUMP IN PERSONAL INCOME AN UNHEALTHY STOCK MARKET
  • 5. CURRENT GLOBAL SCENARIO EUROZONE(PIIGS)-SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS USA-TWIN DEFICIT(FISCAL & CURRENT ACCOUNT) CHINA-RECORDING DOWNWARD GROWYH JAPAN-TRADE DEFICIT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN LAST IN LAST32 YEARS
  • 6. INDIAN SCENARIO  WEAK INDUSTRIAL GROWTH  SLOWDOWN IN INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES 7.6%  DIP IN OUTPUT GROWTH  INFLATIONARY RISK  DEPRECIATION OF RUPEE 6.9%
  • 7. IMPACT ON TRADE INDIA ADVANCED COUNTRIES REVENUE EXPORT DECLINES DECLINES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
  • 8. IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKET  SHARP DECLINE OF EQUITIY PRICES  REVERSAL OF FIIs  DEPRECIATION OF RUPEE AGAINT USD 57.15 !
  • 9. CONFIDENCE CHANNELS  FALL IN BUSINESS MOMENTUM  LOST CONFIDENCE  RELUCTANT TO INITIATE NEW VENTURES  EVEN RBI GIVES A VAGUE EAPLANATION
  • 10. MEASURES TAKEN BY INDIA  SEBI LIBERALISED ITS NORMS TO ATTRACT QFIs  CAP ON GOVT. SECURITIES ENHANCED  MEASURES TO ATTRACT NRI DEPOSITS  GOVT.’S PLAN OF HUGE INFRASTRUCTURAL INVESTMENT  INCENTIVES FOR EXPORT PROMOTION
  • 11. A RAY OF HOPE FROM EUROPE……  EUROZONE AGREES FOR BANKING UNION  EMERGING ROLE OF ECB  IMFs BAIL OUT FUND OF $750bn TO EUROZONE
  • 12. TO CONCLUDE……  ATTRACT MORE FOREIGN INVESTMENT  STRENGTHEN DOMESTIC MARKET  SWIFTER IMPLEMENTATION OF NMP  AUGMENTING INFRASTUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT