This was a webinar prepared for IEEE Canadian Committee. The topic was Climate Change with an emphasis on Canada's place and preparedness.

1. 2050 Net Zero?
Canada’s Options in a
Human-Caused Hot World
Alan R. Emery PhD
KIVU Nature Inc.
Stable Climate Group

2. This is Today’s Face of Early Climate Change Impacts
This Must Not be
the Future Face
of Climate Change
Disaster
Children Are Fleeing Climate-Caused
Resource Shortage and Wars
Today’s Millions of Refugees Must Not Be Tomorrow’s Billions

3. Freshwater Shortage is a Growing
Problem as our World Gets Hotter

4. Heat Waves Already Kill
People and Oceans: Do
Not Let It Get Worse

5. Sea Level Rise is a
“Rising” Problem Today
Stop-Gap Measures are Futile.
Let’s Stop Global Warming
and Sea Level Rise

6. Here is Where We Are Today
Global (Land and Sea) Temperature increase
Temperature Increase = ~ 1.1 to 1.20C

7. The Main Greenhouse Gases

8. Today’s Atmospheric CO2 Levels are Accelerating

9. • Fossil Fuels have no
radioactive Carbon 14 (C14)
• Fossil Fuels have mostly
Plant-Derived C12
• Fossil Fuels have very
little C13
Isotopic Signature Confirms CO2 Comes From Fossil Fuels

10. CO2 is Not Coming From the Ocean
pH is Falling as CO2 dissolves in the Ocean
Seawater pCO2
increasing
Seawater pH
is decreasing

11. Young People Are Looking at Us “Adults.”

12. Canada’s Choices
Burn,
Baby,
Burn
Decarbonize,
Divest,
Diversify

13. Decarbonize,
Divest,
Diversify
All Within 30 Years

14. Decarbonize, Divest, Diversify
Decarbonize Within 30 Years:
Eliminate Fossil Fuel Export of $110 billion per year
Eliminate Fossil Fuel Imports of $60 billion per year
Convert all cement making to zero carbon emissions
Convert all smelting to zero carbon emissions
Convert all agriculture to zero N2O, CH4, CO2 emissions
Convert all forestry to net negative carbon emissions

15. Decarbonize, Divest, Diversify
Divest within 30 Years:
Eliminate all fossil fuel subsidies
Decommission all abandoned wells
Decontaminate all tar sands and
fossil fuel pollution
Eliminate all commerce in fossil fuels
Eliminate all investment and loans to
fossil fuel industries

16. Decarbonize, Divest, Diversify
Diversify:
All liquid fuels become carbon-free
All transport systems to be carbon-free
All heating systems to be carbon-free
Transition to a value-added economy
Build true “Canadian” manufacturing
capability

17. Decarbonize, Divest, Diversify
Diversify within 30 years:
New Infrastructure for energy transmission and storage
Renewables as part of the new energy system
Small Modular Nuclear Reactors: distributed energy base
Replace gas powered tools with electric
Hydrogen as energy storage

18. Decarbonize, Divest, Diversify
Diversify within 30 years:
Plan for huge refugee intake
Build training and medical care for future
Convert lost permafrost areas to agriculture
Mitigate effect of boreal forest fires

19. Decarbonize, Divest, Diversify
Diversify within 30 years:
Develop waaaay better energy storage systems
Add value to all mined mineral resources on exporting
Add value to forestry products before exporting
The new digital world is an open field for development:
• artificial intelligence,
• communication platforms,
• robots

20. Decarbonize, Divest, Diversify
Diversify:
Disaster planning and infrastructure to cope with:
• Increasing drought and flooding in mid-west
• Increasing storm intensity on east coast
• Loss of fisheries on all coasts
• Urban abandonment and retreat from
• sea level increase
• Changing agricultural crops for export

21. Canada, A Brilliant Future is Possible
• No fossil fuel pollution
• Economic bonus : no fossil fuel externalities
• Millions of new jobs
• Increased agricultural potential
• Protected forests and environment
• Potential for many new immigrants
• New industrial processes for cement, smelting, batteries
• “Maybe” a real Canadian car
• Increased export of value-added products
• Capitalizing on the digital age

22. BUT Canada?
Burn, Baby, Burn

23. Burn, Baby, Burn
Most adults in Alberta do not
think people cause global
warming.
More than 1 in 3 Canadians do
not think people cause global
warming.

24. Rank Country
CO2 emissions
(per capita
total)
1 Saudi Arabia 18.48 Tons/year
2 Kazakhstan 17.60 Tons/year
3 Australia 16.92 Tons/year
4 United States 16.56 Tons/year
5 Canada 15.32 Tons/year
6 South Korea 12.89 Tons/year
7 Russian Federation 11.74 Tons/year
8 Japan 9.13 Tons/year
9 Germany 9.12 Tons/year
10 Poland 9.08 Tons/year
Canada’s Dismal Individual (per capita) Commitment to Climate

25. Canada’s “Non-Plan” to Replace Fossil Fuel Industry
“Replacement:”
Fossil Fuel Export (~$110 Billion/Year)
Plan: Sell more, add pipelines, add more
shipping capacity, continue subsidy program
Problem: Market is shrinking rapidly
Grade: Failure
Fossil Fuel Imports (~$60 Billion/Year)
Plan: Minor Increase in EV support, Minor Increase in Renewable Support,
Cautious Interest in Small Modular Reactors, Tiny Interest in Hydrogen, No
Interest in Deep Geological Thermal
Problem: Minor Support for all Alternative Energy Sources
Grade: Failure

26. Alberta Tar Sands Surface Extraction Site
Canada Cannot Meet the Paris Agreements
and Continue to Extract Fossil Fuels

27. Countries in Dark Red are the Worst Performers for Solving Global Warming
Canada is one of the worst

28. Fossil Fuel Addiction:
• 7-9 Million Deaths per Year from Air Pollution Alone
• $2 Trillion per Year in Medical Costs
• $3.2 Trillion per Year in Subsidies and Externalities
• Pollution in Streams, Lakes, Oceans
• Causes Dangerous Global Warming
2050 Net Zero?

29. Drug Addiction:
• 0.6 Million Deaths per Year from Drug Overdose
• $35 Billion per Year in Treatment Costs
• Estimated Cost in Crime and Health: $350 Billion
• Alcohol Abuse 2 million deaths per Year
• Tobacco deaths about 5 million per Year
2050 Net Zero?

30. Drug vs Fossil Fuel Addiction
• Fewer Deaths per Year from
Drugs, Tobacco and Alcohol Combined
• Less Cost for Drug Addiction than Fossil Fuels
• There are Good Substitutes for Fossil Fuels
• Time to Break the Fossil Fuel Habit
2050 Net Zero?

31. Canada is a Major Lending and Investment
Agency in World Fossil Fuel Production
Canada is a Top Investor in Extracting and Exporting Fossil Fuels

32. Canada is the World’s Fifth Largest Producer of Fossil Fuels

33. Canada’s Economic Structure is Weak Going Forward
Economy (rank order):
1) Fossil Fuels
2) Energy
3) Manufacturing (mostly foreign cars)
4) Tourism
5) Agriculture
6) Fishing
Trade Canada:
Exports almost all raw resources (except foreign cars)
Imports just about everything

34. Limits of the Paris Agreements 1.50C to 2.00C
Current Temperature
Should Canada Care if the World Warms?

35. Limit of All Human
Previous Experience
We Have
Now
Exceeded
All Human
Previous
Experience
Thermodynamic States
Cool House
Warm House
Hot House
Cold House
Time Span of
Homo sapiens

36. As the World Warms, the Desert and Savannah Areas Grow
The Arctic Region Gets Hotter, Forests Disappear

41. The Final Arctic Ecosystem at 530ppm CO2

43. April 2020
Record Hot Month for All Recorded History
Cold BLOBS, Melting Ice, Warming Arctic!

44. Canada is a Northern Country. If the World Continues to
Warm We Need to Enhance the Few Northern Existing Cities

45. Yellowknife NWT is the North’s Largest City

46. MacKenzie Delta
Strikes Through the Great Inner Plains
Delta Forest Floor Has Rich Earth on Permafrost

47. Today: Arctic Canada, Siberia, Alaska, California,
Brazil and Pantenal S.A., Central Africa, Australia

48. Permafrost Melting
Melt Crater
Siberian
Methane
Explosion
Crater Lakes

49. Canada’s National Security Risks
Global agriculture losses could trigger invasion:
USA, Russia, and Alaska will be required to replace agricultural
losses in India, Central America, Africa, and South America
Loss of freshwater problem could trigger USA/Canada security risk
in mid-west
International mass refugee problem eliminates national borders
Canada needs infrastructure to welcome and train millions of refugees
Create a Pan-Arctic Alliance with Russia and Northern Europe
to learn and defend

50. Eliminate all of this
In 30 Years
Increase this to
replace everything
In 30 Years
The Basic Task: End Fossil Fuels in 30 Years

51. The World and Canada Have 30 Years to Stop Global Warming
Let’s Leave the Kids a Great Future