1) The document discusses identifying off-grid energy solutions like solar PV to support the development of irrigated agriculture in Ethiopia, where only 5% of agriculture is currently irrigated and access to electricity is limited. 2) It analyzes the costs and feasibility of solar PV versus diesel-powered irrigation at different levels, finding solar PV is cost-effective for certain crops in some areas but financial risks remain for farmers. 3) The analysis estimates irrigation adoption probabilities spatially across Ethiopia under different energy solutions, identifying large potential for irrigation development using solar power nationally if costs can be reduced further.

1. Identify off-grid energy solutions to support
development of irrigated agriculture in Ethiopia
Hua Xie & Dawit Mekonnen
International Food Policy Research Institute
Stockholm World Water Week
August 24 2021

2. Productive energy use in agriculture

3. Irrigated agriculture in the world
Data source: IFPRI&FAO
12%
10%
35%
9%
32%
38%
3%
Rainfed
Irrigated
Ethiopia: 5%

4. Water-energy nexus in irrigation development:
what we know and what we don’t
❑Limited access to electricity (36% of rural population)
❑ Off-grid solutions to address energy poverty challenge
❑Solar PV vs. diesel

5. Level I : cost comparison analysis
Potential evapotranspiration
(PET)
Precipitation
Effective rainfall
Crop water demand
Groundwaterdepth
Energy requirement(kWh)
Capacity of solar
panel (kWp)
Irrigation water
demand (mmH20)
Diesel fuel
consumption
(liter)
Solar irradiance
Xie, H., Ringler, C. and Mondal, M.A.H., 2021. Solar or Diesel: A Comparison of Costs for Groundwater‐Fed Irrigation in Sub‐Saharan Africa Under Two
Energy Solutions. Earth's Future, 9(4), p.e2020EF001611.
Life-cycle cost of solar
irrigation system
Life-cycle cost of diesel
irrigation system

6. Breakeven installed cost of solar PV
Wheat Maize
Vegetables Pulses

7. Level II : integrated irrigation-energy analysis
Xie et al. (2021)
Crop & energy solution choice
based on the profitability
Costs of irrigation development
under solar and diesel irrigation
GIS environmental
suitability analysis
Hydrological & crop
simulation
Agent-based model for
modeling farmers’ irrigation
adoption decision
Suitability domain
with irrigation
adoption possibility
National irrigation
development potential
Crop yields, irrigation
water demand & river
basin water yields
Price change of irrigated
cropproducts
Economic modeling

8. Estimated probability of irrigation adoption

9. Solar PV or diesel?

10. Sensitivity

11. Key takeaways
❑Large irrigation development potential in Ethiopia
❑Large spatial variability in cost effectiveness of solar
irrigation relative to diesel irrigation
❑Large adoption potential of solar irrigation but with
financial risk