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![“PassivHaus”
Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz
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Stávající zástavba Pasivní dům
celkováenergie[kWh/m2
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Domácí spotřebiče
Vzduchotechnika
OhřevTUV
Vytápění
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- 75%](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/johansson-101110131839-phpapp02/85/05-19-320.jpg)
Uploaded byVinicius Camargo
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The document summarizes a presentation given by Thomas B Johansson on energy problems and perspectives for the 21st century. It discusses the major challenges requiring action on energy, including growing demand, access, affordability, security, and climate change mitigation. It outlines the Global Energy Assessment process involving knowledge modules and authors from around the world. Key points include that major energy system changes are needed, and that electricity, energy efficiency, and renewable energies can address all challenges simultaneously if deployed widely. The presentation concludes that transformative changes on energy are required, and that opportunities exist through policies, technologies, and global cooperation.
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- 1. CEAL, Sao Paulo October15, 2010 ENERGY PROBLEMS AND PERSPECTIVES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY Thomas B Johansson Professor, International Insitute for Industrial Environmental Economics, Lund University, Lund, Sweden, Co-Chair, Global Energy Assessement, IIASA, Austria
- 2. From: Steffen etal. 2004 IGBP
- 3. Climate Change Ocean acidification Ozone depletion Global Freshwater Use Rate of Biodiversity Loss Biogeochemical loading: Global N& P Cycles Atmospheric Aerosol Loading Land System Change Chemical Pollution Planetary Boundaries
- 7. Challenges requiring actionson Energy a. Energy services for growing populations and economies b. access to modern forms of energy (the 2 billion w/o access) c. affordable energy services (@$100/bbl??) d. secure supplies, from households to nations e. local and regional health and environment challenges f. climate change mitigation g. ancillary risks => Major Energy System Changes Needed!
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- 9. Assessement Process leading toa Report and much more 25 Knowledge Modules, ~200 authors, geographically and gender diversified Stakeholder consultations External peer review Extensive dissemination Informing Rio +20 and other international, regional, naitonal and corporate on energy and/or linked to energy issues
- 10. Supporting the GEA:Supportingthe GEA: International OrganizationsInternational Organizations UNDESAUNDESA UNDPUNDP UNEPUNEP UNIDOUNIDO World BankWorld Bank IIASAIIASA Country Governments/AgenciesCountry Governments/Agencies AustriaAustria BrazilBrazil European UnionEuropean Union GermanyGermany ItalyItaly SwedenSweden USAUSA CorporationsCorporations PetrobrasPetrobras TEPCOTEPCO First SolarFirst Solar Industry groupsIndustry groups WECWEC WBCSDWBCSD FoundationsFoundations UN FoundationUN Foundation Climate WorksClimate Works
- 11. Four Clusters ofKnowledge modules: 1.The Challenges, nature and magnitude of change required 2.Resources and technology options 3.Pathways to sustainability, urbanisation, rural energy, and land use 4.Policies, energy end use and supply sectors, access, innovation, capacity developoment
- 12. Electricity ●ElectricityElectricity for Allin the Medium Termfor All in the Medium Term (may be achievable(may be achievable)) – Use of both grid-extensionUse of both grid-extension and decentralized systems +and decentralized systems + conventional and renewableconventional and renewable energy technologiesenergy technologies – Strong national (and local) +Strong national (and local) + public (and private)public (and private) delivery modelsdelivery models – Smart use of subsidies andSmart use of subsidies and other innovative financing mechanismsother innovative financing mechanisms (global effort would be required)(global effort would be required)
- 13. Clean Cooking Fuels ●Biogas, LPG, alcohols, kerosene, electricity ● Benefits – Health – Time spent – Reduced emissions of ● Products of incomplete combustion ● Black carbon
- 15. World crude oilproduction model Nashawi et al., Energy Fuels 2010, 24, 1788–1800
- 17. Global emission pathwaysin compliance with a 2 ºC guardrail, with 67% probability (WBGU 2009)
- 18. this translates intoa need for a major energy systems transformation Main elements: ● Energy end-use efficiency ● Renewable energies ● Carbon Capture and Storage (for CC only) ● Efficiency and Renewables are INSTRUMENTS for addressing all the challenges at the same time!
- 19. “PassivHaus” Source: Jan Barta,Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz 0 50 100 150 200 250 Stávající zástavba Pasivní dům celkováenergie[kWh/m2 a] Domácí spotřebiče Vzduchotechnika OhřevTUV Vytápění - 90% - 75%
- 20. Example of savingsby reconstruction Reconstruction according to the passive house principle -90% 15 kWh/(m²a)over 150 kWh/(m²a) Before reconstruction Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz, EEBW2006
- 21. 21 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 TWh Space heating andcooling final energy consumption Summation, 1.4% Retrofit, exemplary buildings OECD90 Asia REF MAF LAC W ork in progress – do not cite or quote -77% Final thermal energy consumption in the world’s buildings by region, 2005-2050 3%/yr retrofit rate
- 22. How far canbuildings take us?How far can buildings take us?
- 23. Letter Horse HayAgriculture Sunlight Telegraph Steam Locomotive Coal Coal mine Coal fields Interntet, Mobile Phone ICE Automobile Gasoline Oil refinery Crude oil Convergence Energy, Mobility Information Hydrogen Natural gas / fossils SMR, decarbonization Electrolysis Sunlight Wind Uranium 1770s 1870s 1970s 2070s Mobility and Communication Through Time Biomass Electricity Electricity Electricity Source: David Sanborn Scott, 2004 23
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- 26. Nuclear PWR InvestmentCostsNuclear PWR Investment Costs US overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interestsUS overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interests mean/best guess and min/max of costsmean/best guess and min/max of costs US: Koomey&Hultman, 2007, France: Grubler, 2009 Source: GEA KM24 forthcoming Nuclear PWR Investment Costs (US overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interests) 1980 1977 1985 1971 1975 1980 1983 1996 1995 5000 2000 3000 4000 1000
- 27. Figure 16 Fissionpower reactor start-ups and shutdowns (IAEA, 2010)
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- 33. GEA-L GEA-M GEA-H Pathways to sustainability, Allpathways meeting the same ”sustainability” criteria in addressing multiple challenges Work in progress!
- 34. Wind Power inEU-27 and FITsWind Power in EU-27 and FITs 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 ElectricityGeneration(TWh) Countries with wind FIT Countries with alternative support
- 35. Public Energy R&Din OECD Source: IEA, 2008
- 37. not just energytechnology ● Urban planning ● Transportation systems ● Material use ● Land use ● Consumption patterns ● …..
- 38. Economic development andpoverty alleviationEconomic development and poverty alleviation while mitigating climate changewhile mitigating climate change ● Multiple benefits conceptMultiple benefits concept ● ValueValue allall benefits (jobs, growth, security, health,benefits (jobs, growth, security, health, local environment, ...)local environment, ...) ● Costs in terms of € per tC misleadingCosts in terms of € per tC misleading ● Energy efficiencyEnergy efficiency ● Renewable energiesRenewable energies
- 39. Major findings andconclusionsMajor findings and conclusions ● Rapidly changing worldRapidly changing world ● Transformative changes needed on energyTransformative changes needed on energy ● Window of opportunity existsWindow of opportunity exists ● Resources and technologies existResources and technologies exist ● Rapidly growing role for renewable energiesRapidly growing role for renewable energies ● Electricity growing importanceElectricity growing importance ● Policies and institutions criticalPolicies and institutions critical ● Energy subsidies and R&D misallocatedEnergy subsidies and R&D misallocated ● Capacity development worldwideCapacity development worldwide
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- 41. Reasons for Concern– “The Red Embers”Reasons for Concern – “The Red Embers” 2 o C Source: Smith et al. PNAS, 2009