HRM module 3, MBA, Kannur University Jinuachan Vimal Jyothi

Jinuachan Vadakkemulanjanal
Vimal Jyothi Institute of Management & Research,
Chemperi PO, Kannur Dr , Kerala-670632 www.vjim.ac.in
jinuachan@gmail.com; +91-9447373415; 04602213399; 2212240
Kannur University 2018-20 MBA
HR Planning, Forecasting, Job models, Work schedule
HRM- Human Resource Management
Module- 3

Learning Objectives Unit-III
• Strategy and Workforce Planning: Strategic
Planning and HR Planning
• Linking the Processes
• Methods and Techniques of Forecasting the
Demand and Supply of Manpower
• Computing Turnover and Absenteeism
• Job Analysis- Job Design:
• Behavioral Concerns- Ergonomic Considerations
and Flexible Work Schedules.
jinuachan@gmail.com - HRM 3dr Module Vimal Jyothi, Chemperi

Devoted to ant colony model
jinuachan@gmail.com - HRM 3dr Module
Vimal Jyothi, Chemperi
HR Planning, Forecasting, Job models, Work schedule

Strategy and Workforce Planning
• Workforce planning is Planning to get the
right people with the right skills in the
right jobs at the right time
• It is urgent – immanent/ remote
retirements
- Early attrition/separation
- Expansion/technology change
- cut throat competition
- Environmental change

IMPACTS ON THE WORKFORCE
Factors that effect a change in work atmosphere
 Should these vacancies be filled?
- Technology- Automation, ERP
- New Knowledge, Skills, & Attitude
- New Programs, process,
- Budget and economy conditions
- Re-organizations jinuachan@gmail.com - HRM 3dr Module Vimal Jyothi, Chemperi

WORKFORCE PLANNING: steps
• Ascertaining manpower needs in number and kind.
• It presents an inventory of existing manpower of
the organization.
• Helps in determining the shortfall or surplus of
manpower.
• Get top management and leadership support.
• Integrate and align with strategic plan and
budget.
• Determine scope of workforce planning
• Form a task force

WORKFORCE PLANNING: process
• Predict future workforce needs
• Analyze workforce supply
• Determine gap between supply and needs
• Create action plan to address gap
• Create evaluation process to assess
progress

Strategic HR planning..
..Integrates the HR management strategies and
systems to achieve the overall mission and
affirm success of the firm while meeting the
needs of employees and other stakeholders.
• Source: Herman Schwind, Hari Das and Terry Wagar,
Human Resource Management: A Strategic Approach.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_human_resource_planning#/media/File:Hr-jinuachan@gmail.com - HRM 3dr Module

Factors affecting HR Planning
External Factors
• Government’s policies
• Level of economic development including
future supply of HR
• Business environment
• Level of Technology, Industry 4.0 jobs
• Natural Factors
• International Factors

Factors affecting HR Planning…
Internal Factors
• Policies and strategies of the company
• Human resource policy of the company
• Formal and Informal groups
• Job Analysis, strategic vision of the firm
• Type and quality of information management
• Company’s production operations policy
• Trade Unions

Planning and Implementing Strategic HR Policies
The Benefits of Strategic HR Planning
1. Encouragement of Proactive rather than Reactive
2. Explicit communication of company goals
3. Stimulation of critical thinking and ongoing
examination of assumptions
4. Identification of gaps between current situation
and future vision
5. Encouragement of line managers’ participation
6. Identification of HR constraints and opportunities
7. Creation of common bonds

The Challenges of Strategic HR Planning
1. Maintaining a Competitive Advantage
2. Reinforce Overall Business Support
3. Avoiding Excessive Concentration on Day-to-
Day Problems
4. Developing HR Strategies Suited to Unique
Organizational Features
Strategic Planning and Implementing

5. Coping with the Environment
6. Securing Management Commitment
7. Translating the Strategic Plan into Action
8. Combining Intended and Emergent
Strategies
9. Accommodating Change

Strategic HR Choices
1. Work Flows
2. Staffing
3. Employee Separations
4. Performance Appraisal
5. Training and Career Development
6. Compensation
7. Employee Rights
8. Employee & Labor Relations
9. International Management
Strategic Planning and Implementing..

Problems in Human Resource Planning
• Resistance by employer
• Resistance by employees
• Resistance by trade unions
• Uncertainties
• Inadequacies of Information system
• Identify crisis
• Slow and gradual process
• Co-ordination with other management functions
• Integration with organizational plansjinuachan@gmail.com - HRM 3dr Module

Methods and Techniques of
Forecasting
• Realistic forecasting of HR involves estimating
both demand and supply.
• How many staff will be required to achieve the
strategic goals?
• What jobs will need to be filled?
• What skill sets will people need?

Assess the challenges from the external
environment as:
-How does the current economy affect our work
and our ability to attract new employees?
-How do current technological or cultural shifts
impact?
-What changes are occurring in the Indian
labour market?
-How is our community changing or expected
to change in the near future?

MANPOWER FORECASTING
• It analyses the future manpower requirements
based on its future business plans, key
workload drivers of the business, budget
constrains and productivity enablers.
• Forecasts are based on demand supply
analysis, internal availability, external
availability, employment practices etc.,

Forecasting Techniques
1. BOTTOM UP TECHNIQUE
2. DELPHI TECHNIQUE
3. NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE
4. RATIO ANALYSIS
5. SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS
6. MULTIPLE LINEAR REGGRESSION ANALYSIS
7. STOCHASTIC METHOD

Forecasting Techniques
8. Trend Analysis
9. Computerized Forecast
10. Econometric Model
11. Scatter Plot diagram
12. Markov analysis
13. Skills inventory and management
inventories
14. Work Study Techniquejinuachan@gmail.com - HRM 3dr Module

14. H R Budget and Planning Analysis
15. Scenario Forecasting
16. Workforce Analysis
17. Workload Analysis
18. Managerial Judgment
19. Job Analysis

1 BOTTOM UP TECHNIQUE
• BOTTOM UP TECHNIQUE Starts from lowest
level and progresses upwards.
• Department managers periodically projects
their workforce requirement keeping in mind
productivity levels, market demands, sales
forecast and mobility of the staff in the
department.

2 DELPHI TECHNIQUE
• To predict the future developments in a
particular area, by integrating the judgments
and opinions provided independently by many
experts.
• Experts both within or outside the organization
presenting their forecasts to other experts
without physically meeting them.
• Good for short duration forecasts

3 NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE
• The nominal group technique (NGT) is a group
process involving problem identification, solution
generation, and decision making.
• The experts sit together to make forecasts.
Forecasts are transferred to a large sheet and
displayed to all the experts.
• Method: First, every member of the group gives their
view of the solution, with a short explanation. Then,
duplicate solutions are eliminated from the list of all
solutions, and the members proceed to rank the
solutions, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and so on

4 RATIO ANALYSIS
• It compare the number of employees to a
workload index. 1:15
• It does not take into account the technological
development, local conditions or other
variables that may be detrimental to
productivity

5 SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS:
• Simplest statistical technique Projects the
future demand based on the past relationship
with the workforce level and basic factor on
whom the demand is assumed to depend
• Simple linear regression is a statistical method
that allows us to summarize and study
relationships between two continuous
(quantitative) variables: One variable, denoted x,
is regarded as the predictor, explanatory, or
independent variable.

6 MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS
• It deals with number of factors on which demand is
based.
• Estimates various characteristics of the workforce
in order to derive the number required to fill the
output projected.
• Multiple linear regression attempts to model the
relationship between two or more explanatory
variables and a response variable by fitting a linear
equation to observed data. Every value of the
independent variable x is associated with a value of
the dependent variable y. The population
regression line for p explanatory .

7 STOCHASTIC METHOD
• A significant statistical method used in projecting
the human needs.
• Stochastic model is a tool for estimating
probability distributions of potential outcomes by
allowing for random variation in one or more
inputs over time.
• Values are obtained from a corresponding
sequence of jointly distributed random variables.
• Deals with both certain and unpredictable
variables
• Eg: guessing the amount of water in a reservoir based on the
random distribution of rainfall and water usage; estimating the
length of a Q

10 Econometrics Models:
• It is based on mathematical and statistical
techniques for estimating future demand.
• Here a relationship is established between
the dependent variable to be predicted (e.g.
manpower/human resources) and the
independent variables (e.g., sales, total
production, work-load, etc.).
• Using these models, estimated demand of
human resources can be predicted

10 Econometric Models
•Past statistical data are analyzed with
mathematical and statistical terms.
•Influences of Economic factors are studied
with mathematical models
Eg. What is the influence of inflation, demand,
supply etc to HR

12 Markov analysis
• By Andrei Andreevich Markov, 1922 Russian Mathematician
• A Markov chain or a Markov process is defined as a
sequence of events in which the probability of each event
depends upon the outcome of previous events.
• It forecast the process of HR flows / movements (promotion ,
demotion, transfer, exit, new hire) within, into, and out of the
organization.
• Markov analysis may be used for investigating the rates of
such movements between two time periods ( t and t + k ).
• Markov process are arranged in a matrix, used to model
the internal flow of human resources

12 Markov analysis
• This Analysis helps to predict internal employee
movement from one year to another by
identifying percentages of employees who
remain in their jobs, get promoted or demoted,
transfer, and exit out of the organization
• By tracking and predicting employment
movement within an organization, it develop a
transition matrix to forecast internal labour
supply.

Current
year
Next
year

Absenteeism
• Absenteeism is Failure of employees to report
for work when they are scheduled to work.
• When an employee fails to report for duty on
time without prior intimation or approval, then
the employee is marked as “absent”.
• The absenteeism has become a huge cost and
disruption to employers, it affect the smooth
running of the organization.

TYPES OF ABSENTEEISM
1. Authorized Absenteeism
2. Unauthorized Absenteeism
3. Willful Absenteeism
4. Absenteeism caused by circumstances beyond
one’s control

Facts about Absenteeism
• Most employees miss work because of personal
illness or illness involving a member of the
family.
• Absenteeism due to work stress, issues with
supervisor or manager, authoritarian
management styles etc
• Employees miss work because of unresolved
conflict between each other

• Employees miss work as a form of “acting out” with
supervisors.
• Lack of incentives: Incentives can boost motivation
and reduce burnout: Encashable leaves
• No attendance policy : A defined policy reduces
absenteesm
• Computing the Turnover Rate:

Employer Absenteeism Control Actions

• Disciplinary approach
– Increasingly severe disciplinary action leading eventually to dismissal
• Positive reinforcement
– Rewarding attendance with prizes and bonuses
• Combination approach
– Use of both discipline and rewards to motivate employee attendance.
• “No fault” absenteeism
– Reasons for absence do not matter. Absenteeism in excess on normal
limits can trigger disciplinary action and lead to eventually to dismissal
• Paid time-off programs
– Time-off is not categorized by type. Absences in excess of employer-
paid time-off are unpaid.
Employer Absenteeism Control Actions ….

Turnover
• Turnover is the permanent withdrawal from an
organization.
• A high turnover rate results in increased recruiting,
selection, and training costs.
• Zero percent turnover is idealistic. Some turnover is
actually desirable; new employees with fresh ideas and
new energy.
• Excessive turnover can be very costly to a company and it
results in a waste of valuable/ experienced resources.
• Non-tangible cost: Customer service disruption,
Emotional costs:- loss of morale, Burnout/absenteeism
among remaining employees
• Loss of experience and lack of continuity of service

Types of Turnover
• Involuntary turnover—terminations for poor performance or
work rule violations.
• Voluntary turnover—employees leave for better options by
choice.
• Functional turnover—lower-performing or disruptive
employees leave the organization.
• Dysfunctional turnover—key individuals and high performers
leave at critical times.
• Uncontrollable turnover—employees leave for reasons outside
the control of the organization.
• Controllable turnover—occurs due to factors that could be
influenced by the employer.

Measuring Turnover
Measure Turnover at:
–Job and job levels
–Department, units, and location
–Reason for leaving
–Length of service
–Demographic characteristics
–Education and training
–Knowledge, skills and abilities
–Performance ratings/levels.

• Computing the Turnover Rate:
100
midmonthatemployeesofnumberTotal
monththeduringsseparationemployeeofNumber

•Costs of Turnover
Separation costs
Replacement costs
Training costs
Hidden costs

Separation of employment
It refers broadly to the process of managing the
termination of employment, either involuntary (such
as discharge, layoff, plant closure, disability or
death) or voluntary (such as resignation, job
abandonment or retirement)
1. Retirement: VRS and Compulsory Retirement
2. Resignation
3. Layoff- for reasons beyond the control of employer.
4. Retrenchment - for economic reasons.
5. Dismissal- as a punitive measure

A. Job Analysis…
• Job Analysis is the process of studying and
collecting information relating to the duties and
responsibilies of a specific job.
• It define a job in terms of its component tasks
or duties and the knowledge or skills required
to perform them.
• Job Analysis is conducted of the Job, not the
person.
• The product of the analysis is a description or
specifications of the job

B. Job Description
• Job description is a written statement of the duties,
relationships and results expected of anyone in a
particular job.
• JD: gives basic job-related data that is useful to
advertise a specific job and attract a pool of talents.
• It includes job title, job location, reporting to and of
employees, job summary, nature and objectives of
a job, tasks and duties to be performed, working
conditions, machines- tools- equipments to be used
by a prospective worker and hazards involved in it
• It is an overall view of what is to be done in the
job. jinuachan@gmail.com - HRM 3dr Module

Job Description ….format
Job description typically includes:
Job Title
Date
Title of immediate supervisor
Statement of the Purpose of the Job
Primary Responsibilities
List of Typical Duties and Responsibilities
General Information related to the job
– training requirements
– tool use
– transportation
Signature of the person who has prepared the job descriptionjinuachan@gmail.com - HRM 3dr Module

C. Job Specification
• JS is a written statement of educational
qualifications, specific qualities, level of
experience, physical, emotional, technical and
communication skills required to perform a job.
• It also includes general health, mental health,
intelligence, aptitude, memory, judgment,
leadership skills, emotional ability, adaptability,
flexibility, values and ethics, manners and
creativity, etc

D. Job Design
• Job Design involves systematic attempt to
organize tasks, duties and responsibilities into
a unit of work to achieve certain objective
• It outlines the job responsibilities and attract
the right candidates to the right job. It makes
the job look interesting and specialized.
• It refers to the what, how much, how many
and the order of the tasks for a job/s.

E. Job enlargement
• It denote an increase in the number of tasks
associated with a certain job.
• Increasing the scope of one’s duties and responsibilities
Eg giving additional guest in charge to receptionist.
• The increase in scope is quantitative in nature and not
qualitative and at the same level.
• Eg: A bank teller not only handles deposits and
disbursement, but also distributes traveler's checks and
sells certificates of deposit.
• The allocation of a wider variety of similar tasks to a
job make it more challenging.

F. Job Rotation
• The practice of periodically shifting workers
through a set of jobs in a planned sequence.
• It helps to test the employee skills and
competencies in order to place him or her at
the right place.
• It reduces the monotony of the job and gives a
wider experience and helps to gain more
insights.
• Eg?

G. Job Enrichment
• Job enrichment empower employees to assume
more responsibility, accountability, and
independence when learning new tasks or to allow
for greater participation and new opportunities
• Increasing the depth of the job
• Include responsibilities that traditionally done at
higher levels of the organization.
• Eg: The teller has the authority to help a client fill out a
loan application, and to determine whether or not to
approve the loan.

H. Job Evaluation
“Job Evaluation is a systematic and orderly process
of determining the worth of a job in relation to
other jobs”
Four basic methods of job evaluation:
*Ranking method, job grading method traditional.
*Point method and factor comparison method-
non-analytical or summary methods

Job Evaluation- Performance Appraisal
• Job evaluation is the systematic way of
determining the value and worth of a job in
relation to other jobs in an organization. ...
• Performance appraisal is the systematic way
of determining the value and worth of a
person in relation to other person in an
organization

I. Job Ranking
• It is the process of giving weightage to each
job position and ranking then.
• The increase in scope is quantitative in nature
and not qualitative and at the same level.

Work study Methods
• Direct observation
• Interview of existing post holder
• Interview of immediate
supervisor
• Questionnaires
• Previous studies
• Work dairies

Ergonomic Considerations
• "Ergonomics (or humanfactors) is the scientificdiscipline
concerned withthe understandingof interactions among
humansand other elementsof a system, and theprofession
thatapplies theory, principles, data and methodsto design in
order to optimize humanwell-beingand overall system
performance.’’
• Ergonomics means literally the study or measurement of Work

BENEFITSOFERGONOMICS
INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY
BETTER COMFORT
REDUCE FATIGUE
SAVE TIME
LESSEN CHANCE OFINJURY
REDUCE ABSENTEEISN
jinuachan@gmail.com - HRM 3dr Module Vimal Jyothi,
Chemperi

ERGONOMIC NEEDS IN A WORKPLACE
Physicalwork environment
•Avoid direct lifting, excessive physical strain
•Automation for the routine works
•Avoid slippery, excessive/poor light situvation
Chemicalenvironment
•Use protective equipments
•Strain

Anthropometry (Body sizes)
•Work place facilities suitable to anthropometry
•Customerization for the personal equipments
OccupationalBiomechanics
•Rules of Mechanics areconsidered: leverage,force/work
•Optimize physical work done
•Work positions aremade optimal
•Eg:400lb v/s 510lb for same job

Psychological aspects
Nudge: Richard Thaler Nobel prize 2017
https://goo.gl/13WSdf
shy bladder syndrome
Socialpsychology
Pecha Kucha presentation

Macro ergonomics
Work physiology

Safety and Ergonomics
•Procedure to followin each jobs
•QWL modeling: light, seating, ‘safety first’ concern for critical
jobs, Personal protective equipments(PPE)
•Occupational therapy department
Systems ergonomics
•Corporate culture to get feed back about the job related issues
•Continuous modification of the work process
•Adoping the modern studies to work

Flexible Work Schedules
• Flexible working refers to any working schedule that is
outsideofa normal working pattern.
• The working hours, instead of being repetitive and fixed,
caninvolvechanges andvariations.
• Flexible Working hours that permit employees the option of
choosing daily starting and quitting times, provided that they
work a set numberof hours per day or week.

– Flexiblehours reduce absenteeism andslowness.
– Employees can schedule their working hours for the time of day
whenthey are most productive.
– Should notcause need for additionalresources
– Flexible Schedules are not subject to the complaint/grievance
policy
• Standard Full-Time Work week
– 40 hours/wk; 8:00 a.m to 5:00 p.m.; Mon- Friday
• Compressed work week
– Extend daily hours to take a portion or full day off
– Make sure there is at least a 30 minute lunch

Thanks
Vimal Jyothi Institute of Management & Research,

References
• Mejia, Luis Gomez; Balkin, David B & Cardy, Robert L, Managing
Human Resources, PHI learning Pvt Ltd, Delhi 2006-5th edi
• Snell , Bohlander; Human Resource Management,
• Armstrong, Michael; Armstrongs’s Handbook of Human
Resource management Practice, 2012, 12th edi
• Belcourt Monica and McBey Kenneth J, ‘Strategic Human
Resources Planning’, 2nd ed. Noida: Thomson Pub, 2007
• https://cb.hbsp.harvard.edu/cbmp/pages/discipline/humanres
ources
• http://www.hrmguide.co.uk/hrm

Administrator & Faculty,
Vimal Jyothi Institutions
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HRM module 3, MBA, Kannur University Jinuachan Vimal Jyothi

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