This document discusses techniques for forecasting human resource demand. It describes forecasting as projecting future HR needs under assumptions about organizational policies and the environment. The techniques discussed include managerial judgment, ratio-trend analysis, work study, and the Delphi technique. Managerial judgment involves top-down and bottom-up approaches while ratio-trend analysis uses historical ratios of production levels to workers. Work study calculates workload and workforce needs based on standard hours per unit. The Delphi technique integrates independent expert opinions to predict the future without direct confrontation.

1. 1
Demand forecastingDemand forecasting
and Techniquesand Techniques

2. PGP 2007-09
Human Resource Forecasting
 Process of projecting the organization’s
future HR needs(demand) and how it will
meet those needs(supply) under a given set
of assumptions about the organization’s
policies and the environmental conditions in
which it operates.
 It is the process of estimating the
requirement of different kinds of personnel
in future

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Reasons for human resource
forecasting
1.Quantify the jobs necessary for producing goods.
2.Assess appropriate staffing levels in different parts of
organization to avoid unnecessary costs.
3.Prevent shortage of people when they are needed
most.

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Forecasting Techniques
 Managerial judgment
 Ratio-trend Analysis
 Work Study Technique
 Delphi Technique

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Managerial Judgement
 This approach is applied by small as well as large
scale organisations.
 This technique involves two types of approaches i.e.
'bottom-up approach' and 'top-down approach‘.

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Ratio-Trend Analysis
 Demand for manpower/human resources is also estimated on
the basis of ratio of production level and number of workers
available. This ratio will be used to estimate demand of human
resources.
 Eg: Estimated production for next year = 1,40,000 units
Estimated no. of workers needed
(on the basis of ratio-trend of 1: 200) will be = 700

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Manufacturing 1 ton of saleable steel requires 10 skilled
workers
Then how many workers are required to manufacture 25
tons of steel assuming constant ratio ?
TONS Workers
1 10
25 ?
25 * 10 /1 =250 workers

8. PGP 2007-09
Work Study Technique
 It is technique which can be used when it is possible to apply
work measurement to know how long operations should take
and the amount of labour required.
 It calculated in two type
 Work-load Analysis
 Work-force Analysis

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Example:
• Planned output for next year 20,000 units
• Standard hours per unit 5
• Planned hours for the year 1,00,000
• Productive hours per man/year
(allowing normal overtime, absenteeism and idle time) 2,000
• Number of direct workers required 50

10. PGP 2007-09
Delphi Technique
 The objective of the Delphi technique is to predict future
situations by integrating the independent opinions of experts
 A major goal of the Delphi technique is to avoid direct
confrontation of experts.

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Steps in Delphi Technique

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