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•

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This document discusses research on the relationship between economic insecurity and political preferences. It notes that while there has been substantial research, progress has been limited due to issues with research design, data limitations, conceptualization of economic insecurity, and lack of theory around different forms of political response. The document reviews evidence that economic insecurity is associated with shifts to the left politically, support for populist/far-right parties, anti-incumbent voting, and abstention. It also discusses evidence linking unemployment, job insecurity, and income drops to preferences for more welfare spending and redistribution, though these effects tend to be short-term. The document calls for improved longitudinal data and stronger theory to better understand how different types of economic

Economic
Insecurity
and

Poli3cal
Preferences

Yotam
Margalit

March
4,
2016

HLEG
Workshop
on
Economic
Insecurity

•  Despite
substan3al
research
on
the
topic,
progress
in

answering
this
ques3on
is
limited.

Issues

–  Limita3ons
of
research
design
and
data

–  Problems
with
conceptualiza3on

–  Lack
of
theory
about
diﬀerent
forms
of
poli3cal
response

Research
Design
and
Data
Limita3ons

Inferences
are
limited
due
to:

•  Heavy
reliance
on
cross-‐sec3onal
data

•  Ar3facts
of
survey
design

Conceptualiza3on
of
Econ.
Insecurity

•  Not
clear
that
all
economic
hardships
should
be

associated
with
similar
poli3cal
responses.

–  Should
income
loss,
job
insecurity
and
underemployment

all
produce
similar
policy
preferences?
Similar
intensity?

Theory
about
Expected
Electoral
Responses

•  Research
on
vo3ng
behavior
typically
takes
the
form:

I.  What
explains
support
for
party
X?

II.  Does
economic
condi:on
Z
aﬀect
support
for
party
X?

•  However,
not
much
theorizing
about
the
ques3on:

Given
condi:on
Z,
how
do
ci:zens
vote?

The
Evidence:

Hardships
and
Vo3ng
Behavior

•  Econ
insecurity
associated
with
a
range
of
electoral

responses:

–  ShiX
to
the
leX

–  Increased
support
for
populist/far
right
par3es

–  An3-‐incumbent
vote

–  Absten3on

• 
Under-‐repor3ng
of
non-‐ﬁndings
(i.e.
no
impact)?

The
Evidence:

Hardships
and
Policy
Preferences

•  Empirical
rela3onship
between
unemployment
or

job
insecurity
and
support
for
more
welfare
spending

and
redistribu3on.

•  Evidence
that
economic
shocks,
primarily
job
loss,

bring
about
an
increase
in
support
for
social

spending.

– However,
the
eﬀect
is
short
term;
dissipates
when

personal
situa3on
improves

Figure 4. Change in Economic Conditions and Support for Increased Welfare Spending
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
Job Not
Less Secure
Job Less
Secure
Kept Job Lost Job Newly
Re-employed
No HH
Income Drop
HH Income
Drop

Going
Forward

•  Improve
quality
of
ﬁndings:

Need
more
longitudinal

data
that
includes
both
economic
security-‐related

items
and
poli3cal
views.

•  Tie
disparate
ﬁndings
together:
Need
stronger
theory

about:

– 
How
diﬀerent
types
of
economic
insecurity
should

translate
into
preferences.

–  The
link
between
economic
insecurity
and
speciﬁc
vo3ng

behavior.

Personal
Economic
Shocks
Predominantly
Aﬀect

Republican’s
Preferences
on
Welfare

0.2.4.6.81
Strongly
O
ppose
Som
ew
hatO
ppose
N
uetral
Som
ew
hatSupport
Strongly
Support
Strongly
O
ppose
Som
ew
hatO
ppose
N
uetral
Som
ew
hatSupport
Strongly
Support
Democrats Republicans
Did Not Lose Job Lost Job
ProbabilityofSupportingWelfareExpansion
Position on Expansion of Welfare Spending in Previous Period
G ra ph s by p ar ty

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This document summarizes Arthur Stone's presentation on the OECD's recommendations for measuring affective subjective well-being. Stone argues that the OECD's original strategy of measuring positive and negative affect using a yesterday recall period was sound. However, he suggests broadening the definition of affective well-being to include self-reported pain. Stone presents research showing monitoring pain in populations over time can provide insights, such as revealing increased rates of pain in younger generations without college degrees. He concludes by recommending the expansion of affective well-being measures in line with considering a broader definition and the drivers of its components.

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StatsCommunications

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StatsCommunications

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StatsCommunications

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