Presents the view of the European Nuclear Society High Scientific Council on the role of nuclear power in a low-carbon world

1. The important role of nuclear
in a low-carbon world:
the view of the European Nuclear Society’s
High Scientific Council
International Conference on Climate Change and the Role of Nuclear Power
7–11 October 2019, IAEA Headquarters Vienna, Austria
E. Proust, L. G. Williams, C. Ahnert, S. Bechta, H. Böck, L. Cizelj, F. Deconinck, A. Di Buono,
E. Gilad, J. Klepáč, M. E. Ricotti, T. J. Schröder, T. Schulenberg, G. Steinhauser, A. Traichel,
T. Troev, I. Turcu, J. Uhlir
eric.proust@euronuclear.eu

2. Climate change:
the most significant threat to our planet
2
~ - 20 000 years
~+4°C
today

3. 174 countries and the EU agree to reduce their GHG emissions so as to
keep a global temperature rise this century well below 2°C above pre-
industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase
even further to 1.5°C
Climate change:
the most significant threat to our planet
3

4. Goverments are still much too slow in
implementing the needed measures
The commitments taken by the countries through the Paris agreement
(INDCs) will lead to a 3°C warming
Source: UNFCCC synthesis report on the aggregate effect of intended nationally determined contributions
4

5. Goverments are still much too slow in
implementing the needed measures
IPCC SR15 report: a global warming of 1.5°C may be reached by 2030-2050
with dire consequences
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/graphics/#cid_455
5

6. Goverments are still much too slow in
implementing the needed measures
IPCC SR15 report: 1.5°C scenarios require halving GHG emissions by ~2030
and reaching net zero by ~2050!
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
6

7. Goverments are still much too slow in
implementing the needed measures
Carbon Emission intensity is steadily declining
but not sufficiently to offset economic growth
In 2018, even CO2 emissions from advanced economies increased (by 0.5%),
for the first time in 5 years, reversing a previously declining trend
7

8. Decarbonisation of the world economy
must be a top priory
Gigantic investments urgently required to reach Paris Agreement goals
• IPCC: the share of low-carbon energy investments should be increased
from 2% to 2,8 of GDP and maintained at this level until 2050
• In addition: 2,5% of world savings should redirected towards low carbon
infrastructures until 2035
Delaying these investments entails dire long-term consequences that will be
far more expensive to deal with
Channelling such huge investments to deliver the decarbonisation goals may have
short term negative impacts on other important societal goals
 Choose an economically sustainable, cost-efficient route towards decarbonisation
8

9. Decarbonisation of the world economy
must be a top priory
Choose an economically sustainable, cost-efficient route towards decarbonisation
 Prioritize investments with highest GHG reduction to cost ratios
 Consider all available low-carbon technologies on the basis of their merits
for reaching the goals
 Implement financial mechanisms to reduce the risk-premium of large-scale
low-carbon investments which are currently all highly capital-intensive
Start NOW the large-scale implementation of proven technology solutions
• No time to wait for and bet on unproven technology or hypothetical future
technological breakthrough! 9

10. The first priority:
decarbonise electricity generation
• The easiest step, with the highest initial GHG reduction to cost ratio
• Accessible with existing technologies: nuclear, hydro, variable renewables
• Will ease the decarbonisation of other sectors
World electricity generation mix, 2018 Sources of world CO2 emissions, 2017
10
OECD/IEA, 2019 OECD/IEA, 2019

11. The first priority:
decarbonise electricity generation
Where natural resources limit new hydro schemes,
nuclear power, solar PV and wind power are the only proven
technologies available to decarbonise electricity generation
11
Share of carbon-free electricity sources in several major economies and world
OECD/IEA, 2017

12. The first priority:
decarbonise electricity generation
Where natural resources limit new hydro schemes,
nuclear power, solar PV and wind power are the only proven
technologies available to decarbonise electricity generation
• Nuclear power: second largest source of low carbon electricity
- 12 g CO2/kWh (~like wind power), 400 GWe, 54 reactors under construction,
- 60 Gt eq CO2 avoided since 1970
- EU countries having achieved significant CO2 reduction from their electricity
generation are the ones with a large component of hydro and/or nuclear
(France, Sweden, Switzerland, UK)
- If the world adds nuclear capacity at the rate achieved by France and Sweden
in the 70’s-80’s, the global share of fossil fuelled electricity could be replaced
in 25-35 years
- Nuclear: dispachable generation with capability to ramp up and down briskly
to meet daily changes in power demand and accommodate the intermittent
nature of solar PV and wind power generation
12

13. -100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Renewables Nuclear Coal Oil Gas
TWh
The first priority:
decarbonise electricity generation
Significant steady increase in variable renewables
(solar PV and wind power) installed capacity and
impressive reduction in manufacturing costs,
owing to strong government support
Solar
PV
Hydro
Wind
Source: Lazard, 2019
13
OECD/IEA, 2019
World electricity generation changes, 2017-2018 (IEA)

14. The first priority:
decarbonise electricity generation
(Where natural resources limit new hydro schemes)
The ambitious reduction targets in the carbon footprint of electricity
production cannot be achieved in the required timeframe by the further
deployment of these non-hydro renewable technologies alone
 The only way to achieve these targets is through combining variable
renewables with nuclear technologies
with nuclear providing dispachable power to accommodate the variability of
solar PV and wind power and security of energy supply
Matching generation and demand with a system with a high proportion of intermittent
renewable energy generation requires complementary dispatchable power sources to
provide reliable power during the hours and days when wind does not blow or the sun
does not shine.
Hydro and nuclear power are the only existing low-carbon options available
to perform these functions 14

15. The first priority:
decarbonise electricity generation
 The only way to achieve these targets is through combining
variable renewables with nuclear technologies
15
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2016 2050
IPCC 1.5°C scenario
average
Net change
2016–2050
Global
electricity
generation
(TW·h)
Chart Title
Other
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Gas
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Compiled H. Turton, IAEA 2019
Net low carbon additions
+34 000 TWh wind + solar
+ 5 300 TWh nuclear

16. The first priority:
decarbonise electricity generation
To deliver a cost-effective and reliable solution in the required timeframe,
 Variable renewable energy should not exceed 40-50% of a country’s
generating capacity
Illustration of system costs
System costs per MWh of Variable Renewable Energy
1) Integration/system costs of VREs
OECD, 2015
OECD/NEA, 2019
16
(all systems are at 50g CO2/Kwh)

17. The first priority:
decarbonise electricity generation
To deliver a cost-effective and reliable solution in the required timeframe,
 Variable renewable energy should not exceed 40-50% of a country’s
generating capacity
Price duration curves of wholesale electricity prices for various VRE penetration levels
2) zero prices, price volatility and commensurate capital cost increases
OECD/NEA, 2019
OECD/NEA, 2019
17

18. The first priority:
decarbonise electricity generation
To deliver a cost-effective and reliable solution in the required timeframe,
 Variable renewable energy should not exceed 40-50% of a country’s
generating capacity
The market remuneration received by wind and solar PV as a function of their share in the electricity mix
3) ‘’self-cannibalisation’’ of wind and solar PV generation capacities
OECD/NEA, 2019
OECD/NEA, 2019
18

19. The first priority:
decarbonise electricity generation
To deliver a cost-effective and reliable solution in the required timeframe,
 Variable renewable energy should not exceed 40-50% of a country’s
generating capacity
‘’We believe it is important for policy makers and the wider public to be aware
of the significant, intrinsic technical and economic difficulties
of achieving ambitious reduction objectives
with variable renewable generation technologies alone’’
19

20. The first priority:
decarbonise electricity generation
To deliver a cost-effective and reliable solution in the required timeframe,
in view of the massive investments required,
 It is of paramount importance to implement long-term frameworks that
provide stability and confidence for investors in all low-carbon power
technologies
Calls for, in particular:
• decarbonisation policies to create a level playing field that allows all low-carbon
generation technologies, including nuclear, to compete on their merits. It should
also be recognized that nuclear power plays a significant role in ensuring role in
contributing security of energy supply
• avoiding the imposition of targets for the progressively increasing share of specific
technologies (which would go against cost-efficiency);
• implementing financial mechanisms to reduce the risk premium of large-scale
low-carbon investments which are all capital-intensive.
20

21. We are concerned!
• To observe some EU Member States are giving priority to reducing the share of
nuclear or phasing it out, rather than to reducing GHG emissions. As a consequence,
carbon emissions stagnate in these Member States
• to observe that in the US, the drive is for the early closure of nuclear plants and
their planned replacement with gas fired plants.
• to observe that investments are still being made in coal fired power plants in Africa,
China and other parts of the world;
to see countries abandoning high CO2 emission technologies at home but promoting
or selling coal fired plants abroad.
The first priority:
decarbonise electricity generation
21

22. Nothing in life is risk-free and decarbonisation will require countries to make
difficult choices
We believe that the risk to people and society associated with the use of
nuclear power is low and the safe disposal of radioactive waste is
manageable
On the other hand, unrestricted climate change will present a considerable
risk to mankind
An illustration in the IPCC SR15 report (choice between pathways): those
who decide to phase out nuclear should be aware (and should be
informed!) that they will then have to accept, among other risks, the ones
on biodiversity (not to mention safety) that the only alternative to relying
on nuclear for deep decarbonisation implies: the massive deployment of
the couple bioenergy/carbon sequestration
22
Conclusion

23. All credible and affordable scenarios for deep decarbonisation require a major
increase in the global deployment of nuclear power
For society to accept the widespread use of nuclear power, we believe that more needs
to be done to raise public awareness of the potential risks and benefits of the
technology
We believe that technology alone will not solve the problem of climate change
Both political and societal changes are required. The long-term preservation of our
planet and hence mankind will require urgent decisions and changes to our way of life
We believe that the increased deployment of nuclear power (in combination with
renewable power) is the best way to minimize their impact on society
Achieving this will not be easy but it is a noble goal for all of us, especially politicians
and international organizations
Conclusion
23

24. 24
The ENS High Scientific Council

25. 25
Read the full paper here
https://mailchi.mp/6acf8b7006bc/ens-high-scientific-council-position-paper-on-the-role-of-nuclear-power-for-climate-change

26. Thank you for your attention!