Water Family Meeting and Symposium on Water Equity in South-East Europe and the Mediterranean 28-29 March 2019 Palazzo Zorzi, Venice (Italy) - Carlo Giupponi, Full professor of Ca' Foscari University of Venice, and Dean of Venice International University, Italy

1. Going beyond averages
Prof. Carlo Giupponi
Dipartimento di Economia, Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia
Dean, Venice International University
Symposium on Water Equity in South-East Europe and the Mediterranean

2. CG 2
Main messages to share
• Approaching global problems such as social inequalities and poverty has
water resources and management as one of the key drivers to be considered
• Water related issues are characterized by:
– high complexity and interlinkages within social and ecological systems
(SESs)
– high spatial and temporal variabilities
– multiple and interconnected objectives
– high uncertainty deriving from different sources: data limitations, but
also conceptual ones (aleatory and epistemological uncertainty)
• Agenda 2030 is an important driver for policy development and
implementation, to be supported by adequate information (indicators and
indices)

3. CG 3
SDG Indicators
https://unstats.un.org/unsd/statcom/47th-session/documents/2016-2-IAEG-SDGs-Rev1-E.pdf

4. SDG 6.4.1, Water Use Efficiency (US$ m-3)
Giupponi C, Gain AK, Farinosi F. Spatial Assessment of Water Use
Efficiency (SDG Indicator 6.4.1) for Regional Policy Support. Frontiers
in Environmental Science 2018, 6, 141(141-114)
The spatial distribution, but also the
magnitude of the phenomena are
completely hidden at national scale

5. Spatial analysis of Water Security Index for policy support,
from country level to pixel based global maps
Country averages hide knowledge of
spatial distribution of phenomena
needed for policy makers’ decisions
Gain AK, Giupponi C, Wada Y. Measuring global water security towards sustainable
development goals. Environmental Research Letters 2016, 11(12): 124015.

6. Spatial analysis of Water Security Index for policy support,
from country level to pixel based global maps
Global studies with adequate spatial
resolution allows for more detailed
and contextualized regional analyses
Gain AK, Giupponi C, Wada Y. Measuring global water security towards sustainable
development goals. Environmental Research Letters 2016, 11(12): 124015.

7. CG 7
Agenda 2030: Network of interconnected Goals
and Targets
https://www.un.org/development/desa/publications/working-paper

8. CG 8
Water Energy and Food Nexus
• “This radical transformation is needed to satisfy the growing demand for water, food and energy
without transgressing environmental limits.” (European Report on Development, 2012)
 Water security remains central to the concept of nexus;
 food and energy security can only be achieved through water security.
 Climate change is a strong amplifier but not the primary driver for change
http://www.water-energy-food.org/documents/events/2013/berlin2013/nexus-realising-the-nexus_2013.pdf

9. CG 9
System analysis of the Nexus
https://repository.tudelft.nl/view/tno/uuid:ba9e1f12-a4c0-403d-be46-03ed8112becb

10. CG 10
Hierarchical aggregation
and weighting of
indicators to calculate
security indices

11. Analysis of sensitivity to risk
attitudes of policy makers
e.g. Global WEF Index Maps
SAW / COMPENSATORY
PESSIMISTIC / RISK AVERSE
OPTIMISTIC / RISK TAKER
Synthetic indices are needed, but
their results/messages heavily on
aggregation methods, which are
affected by subjectivity
Giupponi C, Gain AK. Integrated spatial assessment of the water,
energy and food dimensions of the Sustainable Development Goals.
Reg Environ Change 2017, 17(7): 1881-1893.

12. WEF Index in the Mediterranean and Black Sea Basins
Giupponi C, Gain AK. Integrated spatial assessment of the water,
energy and food dimensions of the Sustainable Development Goals.
Reg Environ Change 2017, 17(7): 1881-1893.
Going beyond country averages is possible, but still important data gaps exist

13. CG 13
Concluding remarks about the study cases (1/2)
• A comprehensive assessment of water, energy and food indicators requires the
consideration of a multitude of indicators
• There is a trade off-between the information contents and the synthesis needs
required for communicating with policy makers and the general public.
• Aggregated indices may hide some important features, like local or sectoral
specificities. The application of OWA improves the usual weighted sum
approaches, and allows for exploration of the effects of subjectivity and
uncertainty.
• The availability of global data sets is dramatically increasing, and their levels of
spatial detail allows for analyses at regional or even river basin scales, as in this
work, allowing for going well beyond the usual adoption of country-level data.

14. CG 14
Concluding remarks about the study cases (2/2)
• These studies demonstrated how the principles and requirements of Agenda 2030
in terms of sustainable development can be supported implemented through an
indicator-based approach for spatial assessment of WEF Security
• The set of indicators and the aggregated indices are in general consistent with the
UN SDGs.
• The approach is:
– transparent in that it is coded in a modelling procedure that can be reproduced
and which stores all the data, metadata, parameters, coefficients, etc.
– efficient, in that it allows for easy exploration of the effects of the varying
parameters (aggregation method, weighting, etc.) by means of sensitivity
analysis.

15. CG 15
General remarks (1/2)
• A deep transformation is needed in the now prevailing model of economic growth
to make it more compatible with the preservation of the quality of the socio-
ecosystems of which the human beings are part.
• Global socio-ecosystems should find local solutions for the transition towards
sustainability, through the appropriate combination of changes in the cultural
values towards environment-friendly lifestyles and economic and production
models;
• Any transformative path towards sustainability should integrate the three pillars of
SD, and so should any assessment approach;
• Public policies embodied in a polycentric system of governance are needed as well;
• We need metrics to measure the sustainability of our societies;
• There is a trade off-between the information contents and the synthesis needs
required for communicating with policy makers and the general public;

16. CG 16
General remarks (2/2)
• A comprehensive assessment of [progress towards] SD requires the consideration
of a multitude of indicators;
• Aggregated indices may hide some important features, like local or sectoral
specificities. Techniques are available to deal with such problem, allowing also for
exploration of the effects of different attitudes of policy makers;
• The availability of global data sets is dramatically increasing, and their levels of
spatial detail allows for analyses at regional or even river basin scales;
• Global indicators should be nested with more specific and local indicators for
specific purposes;
• Country-level analyses are not usable for policy support;
• Future developments should investigate how to provide monitoring capabilities on
annual basis at adequate scales and innovative avenues for the
aggregation/integration of multiple dimensions.