Brankica Majkic-Dursun, Climate Change Impact on water resources and BRs Venice, 16-17 December 2021 Overall responsibility for the views and opinions expressed in the slides is taken by the authors

1. Climate Change Impact on water
resources and Biosphere Reserves
“Jaroslav Černi“ Water Institute Center „Water for Sustainable Development and Adaptation to
Climate Change (WSDAC)“ under the auspices of UNESCO
MAB-IHP Regional Symposium: Managing Water Resources in
Biosphere Reserves in South East Europe and the
Mediterranean

2. Connected activities of the WSDAC
September 2020: Kick off Meeting for DyRes System project Funded by the Science Fond of the Republic of
Serbia. DyRes System addresses the challenges of supporting the risk assessment of complex water systems.
The project proposes the use of a system approach to enhance the predictive power in resilience
assessment of water systems, environment, and infrastructure beyond the largest recorded events.
WSDAC Support project throug the result dessimination.
Email: milan.stojkovic@jcerni.rs
Web: DyRes System
System dynamics simulation model of the Pirot reservoir System (Ignjatovic et al

3. Connected activities of the WSDAC
Februar 2021: Webinar “Impacts of Climate Change on the Quality of Surface Waters in the Republic of
Serbia and recommendations.“ (Webinar was co-organaized by WSDAC and WWF Adria and under auspices
of Serbian Commition for Unesko and Jaroslav Černi Water Institute, as a result of project „Climate Pact
for Impact“).
April 2021: Prepared the document - Recommendations for Strategy of Action, after webinar open-
discussion with stakeholders and focal points, representatives from scientific community and young
reserchers.
Next week: Workshop “Application of machine learning in solving global challenges in water and energy
sector“ The main objective of the workshop is to introduce the key concepts of machine learning to the
experts and students from various fields, involved in solving various global challenges through their
institutions, so they become able to apply machine learning in solving physical problems in water, energy,
and other sectors. (together with Faculty of Science – University of Kragujevac)

4. Why this items?
What were the conclusions of the Webinar „Impacts of Climate Change on the Quality of Surface Waters in the
Republic of Serbia and recommendations“.
1. Major obstacles for the development of participatory climate change programs are:
• the lack of institutional awareness,
• willingness or coordination,
• as well as human capacity and
• funding opportunities.
2. It is necessary to a cross-sectoral, interdisciplinary and integrative approach to the analysis of the impact of
climate change on water resources and dependent ecosystems.
3. The results of scientific or dedicated projects are known to a small number of participants, data exchange and
exchange of results could improve future studies
4. Lack of data and appropriate time series are the consequence is the non-existence of unified databases
(open-data are still rare and insufficient). Databases are needed to monitor long-term trends
5. Human capacity especially in governmental institutions is not on appropriate level
6. Competencies between institutions are often not clearly delineated/defined
7. In the Republic of Serbia, the issue of the effects of climate change on the quality of water and water services
has not been seriously considered so far

5. Why this items?
1. Climate change has become an independent driver of environmental change and poses a serious challenge
to future economic development
2. Climate change poses risks to human societies through impacts on food, and water security (endangerment
public water supply, impact changes in water supply infrastructure, huge impact on energetic sector etc)
3. Climate change will amplify existing risks and create new risks for natural and human systems
4. Climate change facilitates the spread and establishment of many alien species and creates new
opportunities for them to become invasive. Invasive alien species (IAS), that are introduced into places
outside their natural range, negatively impacting native biodiversity, ecosystem services or human well-
being.
Much less attention is paid to the impact of climate change on water quality than on water
quantity! (we need MORE dedicated surveys, connected databases, and multiscience approaches)

6. Drivers
Drivers of changes in the environment
Chemical agents Urbanization
Waste Water
Pollution
Industrial
pollution
New vermin
species
Land
Degradation
Climate change as a driver
Extreme winds
Extreme
hydrological
events
Less snow
covers
Difference in
precipitation
and T pattern
Extreme
temperature
Extreme
precipitation
Endangerment (exam.: bloom of
Cyanobacteria in reservoirs)
Consequence:
Pollution of drinking
water
Probability: every
several years
Changes in environment (waste
water pollution – incrising
nutritien load but also
chemicals)
Existing risk
Low/Medium/High
Future risk (rising)
Low/Medium/High
Changes in climate (increased
air temperature and less
precipitation) – changing the
lake stratification

7. An extraordinary bloom of Planktothrix rubescens, which can produce microcystins (MCs), was observed in 2013 in
Vrutci reservoir (Serbia, Water Supply System for Užice municipality) – Jaroslav Cerni Water Institute
Also, found in almost all small reservoirs and channels in Vojvodina province and all over (source: Svirčev et al.
2007, Takodi 2012).
Map (A) Freshwater ecosystems monitored in the past 25
years in Serbia with detected blooming events; (B) Drinking
water supply reservoirs in Central Serbia with blooming ones
marked by red dots (Svircev at al 2007, Tokodi et al. 2012)
Photos from Vrutci Reservoir 2013.

8. Raising water temperture and its impacts on Biosphere
Source ICPDR (Working document, RBM TG, unpublished)
Backo Podunavlje Biosphere Reserve, Serbia
Changing Water Temperatures Can Negatively
Impact Ecosystems:
tends to lead to lower levels of dissolved oxygen
in water, hence more stress on the fish, insects,
crustaceans and other aquatic animals that rely
on oxygen, and potentially causing increases in
harmful algae blooms.
g.s
Bezdan

9. Extreme hydrological events (floods)
Backo Podunavlje Biosphere Reserve,
Serbia
The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify with
global warming, which likely increases the intensity of
extreme precipitation events and the risk of flooding.
Major flood events in the Danube River Basin of the
recent past occurred in 2002, 2005, 2006, 2009,
2010, 2013 and 2014.
The very cold weather in January/February 2017
caused the ice drifts, which aggregated into ice jams
along the entire length of the Danube.
Impact of flooding on the environment:
1. wildlife habitats can be destroyed by floodwater.
2. contaminated floodwater can pollute rivers and
habitats.
3. river banks and natural levées can be
eliminated as rivers reach bankfull capacity
4. Floods may also destroy wetland areas and
reduce biodiversity.
5. Great floods also affect game animal reproduction
Photo from: https://nestvarna.blog/2018/04/22/gornje-podunavlje/
The protection of wetlands is very
important, especially due to expected
climate change!

10. How WSDAC Center can participate:
In the coming period, it is necessary to strengthen the cooperation of various stakeholders (scientists-
professionals-decision-makers) in order to provide a basis for analysis of impacts and pressures on
water resources and dependent ecosystems due to expected climate change.
1. Co-organization of dedicated events for different stakeholders with other relevant organizations on
the promotion of Biosphere Reserves and impacts on Climate Change on hydrological cycles and
water resources
2. Participate in hydrological and or climate change studies
3. Participate in projects which need climate or hydrology expertise as well as in projects regarding
water quality
4. Participate in providing data-base for open–access data
5. Sharing the knowledge through participation in scientific events made by other Institutions.

11. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION