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Global Securities : Issues & Challenges
(Post-Covid Scenario)
Presentation for International Webinar
Organized by:
Dept of Defence & Strategic Studies, T.G. College, Baramati Dist. Pune M.H. ( India) 15-16 Jan,2020
Ashima Sahni Head Department of Political Science
Kanya Maha Vidayalaya (Autonomous) college, Jalandhar
OBJECTIVES :-
1. Reviewing the current scope and operation of
global security.
2.Identifying New Threats to Global Securities that
are emerging ( Covid- times & Post- Covid)
3 whether a change in approaches in the context of
global security and complex interdependencies is
needed?
.
Methodology
Methodology - Descriptive, Analytical, Historical and Observational.
Primary Data - Govt’s Annual Reports of External Affairs ( USA, U.K. China, Russia, E.U. India)
Think tanks (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
Secondary Data - Books, Journals, Online newspaper of India, China, America
Related publication (2000 - 2020 )in Google Scholar &PubMed
Publicly available reports from U.N., Security Council & W.H.O
Reports of International Food Policy Research Institute
OVERVIEW
1Deepening globalization has resulted in a new form of
asymmetric security threats which looks beyond traditional
military philosophy .
2 current security challenges and risks in global security
environment are of a military and non-military nature.
Findings of this study
1. Covid is shaping the contours of global Securities .
2. Global Security issues will be China centric .
3 Globalization will loose its current status quo &transition will not be from
globalization to de-globalization but “G” with less carbon emissions , surveillance
& healthcare.
4. Global health system will be a key actor in measuring the power of nation-
state .
5 A shift from Collective Security Arrangement to more Individualistic Approach
6 Mad Race for Strategically Important Next Generation Technology
7 Espionage on smart technology will be more intense as compared to nuclear,
space or information.
Current Scope And Operation Of G-Security.
Global security
1“Absence of Threat”
2Political, Military, and Economic Trends in World
3 Military and Diplomatic Measures that Nations & I-
organizations take to ensure mutual safety and security
3 To study sources of potential regional conflict; and emerging
threats to the global security environment.
4 How a range of different security agents interact, cooperate
and compete, to produce new institutions, practices and forms
of security governance.
1930S - G.S Studies emerged in 1930s in era of Military Threats
1940s -Concept of National Interest & National security took center stage
1990s- Non-Military issues ( climate, Eco, Health etc.,)as a threats to state
emerged through 1990s in a new approach under COPPENHAGEN SCHOOL
1991 Barry Buzan trail-blazed this approach in 1990s“Societal concerns are
likely to assume a prominence on the security agenda that they have not held
since before the establishment of the modern European states system.”
1992- Peterson and Sebenius ,crisis in education & economic underclass as a
security threat for Powerful states
1995 Lynn-Jones and Miler addressed Virulent Nationalism and social impact
of migration as a security threat
1997 Ayoob highlighted that internal rather external threats were security
concerns in less developed countries ( Mirchand & Jaichand often quoted by
Major Gaurav Arya in his talk shows Offensive Defence in Republic T.V.)
Security of State to Human Security
End of Cold War brought appraisal of Realist
Paradigm of I.R. which Focused Only on
Military Security & Inter State Relations.
Some neo –Realist, Pluralist and Social
Constructivist in I.R. shifted the focus from
security of State to Human Security.
G.S. Determines Relationship
1. security and the sovereign state
2 structures of political power and authority
3 operations of global capital
GLOBAL GOVERNANCE AND SECURITY CONCERNS
G. G brings together diverse actors to coordinate collective action at global level to provide
public goods, peace and security, justice and mediation systems for conflict, functioning
markets and unified standards for trade and industry.
The leading institution in charge of G.G is the United Nations
Bretton Woods institutions (W. Bank & IMF)
Regional coordinators (EU & ASEAN)
Strategic or Economic initiatives under the leadership of one country – NATO for the US or
China’s Belt and Road Initiative .
Defense or economic integration such as APEC or ANZU
World Economic Forum G20, the G7
Multi-stakeholder institutions that aim to align global standards such as Internet Engineering
Taskforce (IETF) and the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C).
GLOBAL GOVERNANCE : CONCERNS IN COVID TIMES
World’s global and national institutions are increasingly incapable of managing
stresses to the system.
Pandemic has highlighted the failed roles of international organization like
W.H.O.
U.N. was unsuccessful to bring all the nations to a common platform, thus
failing to do its primary role. So, a paradigm shift will be visible in thinking
about the collective security system and I. Organizations.
There will be shift from a Collective Security Arrangement to a more
Individualistic approach .
STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
Global geopolitical transition has begun.
US hegemony is over.
China has emerged as a common enemy.
World is shifting to a new multi-polar order with the US and China at its center .
Traditional centers of power are showing signs of weakness because of slower
economic growth and this can diminish their ambition & military footprint in zones
of their interest and may reduce their power projection to zones of their influence.
STRATEGIC GEOPOLITICAL COMPETITION
1. Redistribution of military and political means of power will affect both
Europe and the USA
2. Review of the global supply chains currently dominated by China.
3Some moves to attribute the causes of this crisis to China may increase
tensions.
4 Global Health System is likely to emerge as a key actor in measuring the
power of nation-state
U.N. IN ACTION
Recognizing danger to maintenance of international peace
and security, UN Security Council for the first time has
called for:-
1. General Ceasefire
2. Humanitarian Pause in Armed Conflicts Across the Globe
New Threats
New threats -Restrictive measures and tools to contain Pandemic
Restrictive Measures- will challenge values such as freedom,
democracy & religious practice, which if added to populist
movements can increase pre-existing fractures of states .
Political exploitation of post-COVID crisis will be legitimized
through military and non-military means
GLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY
Aim of G.H.S - To Build Collective International public
health system for action and averting bio-terrorism
&containing risks from infectious disease.
Evolution of G.H.S- 1.A concept that has evolved over the
past 30 yrs.
2.In 2001, the World Health
Assembly's Resolution 54.14 ‘Global health security:
epidemic alert and response’ linked the health security
concept to a global strategy for prevention of movement of
communicable diseases across national borders.
3Health of all peoples is “fundamental to
their attainment of peace and security” (WHO, 2002).
Diverse players G.H.S -In the ‘health security’
game include practitioners in the fields:-
1. Security Studies, Foreign Policy , I. Relation &
Development Theory
2 United Nations (UN) Agencies
3 Dept. of Health Development in Respective Countries
How adequately current visions of
global health security account for?
.
1.World War I—20 million deaths
2. 1918 Spanish flu killed as many as 50 million people (Johnson and
Mueller, 2002)
3)Interdependencies among human health, animal health, and the
environment, their relation are both poorly understood. (Hinchliffe and
Bingham, 2008).
Traditional Defenses At National Borders
Cannot Protect Against The Invasion Of A
Disease.
A book titled : “A Frame work to counter Infectious Disease
Crises”(commission on Global Health Risk Framework for the
Future(GHRF), 2016) says that:
“ Pandemics cause devastation to human lives and
livelihoods much as do wars, financial crises. Pandemic
prevention and response, therefore, should be treated as an
essential tenant of both national and global security-not
just as a matter of health’’
This is one of the reason because of which the traditional
definition and military practice of security are fast changing.
HOW TO ENSURE GLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY
Broader definition of global health security should be considered —
1.One that would extend well beyond the threats of pandemics and
bioweapons of mass destruction.
2. systematic focus on the complex interlinkages among human physical and
mental health, animal health, and the environment.
3 policymakers and decision-makers should be motivated to see healthy
societies as the foundation of national security
( Bouskill, Kathryn E. & Elta Smith,
2019.)
ECONOMIC SYSTEM, FOOD SECURITY AND
GLOBALIZATION
The baseline forecast envisions a 5.2 percent contraction in global GDP in 2020.
Deepest global recession in decades
IMF, the World Bank and similar institutions will have to play important role in
cushioning people from the worst effects of recession.
Inadequate economic and political action will lead to greater instability and
conflicts in the coming years.
Food Security
1The pandemic has posed a serious threat to food security,
particularly in poorer countries.
2E-commerce has helped SMEs deliver food to consumers
under lockdowns and other constraints, and added to the
resilience of the supply chains in developing regions.
3Govt. & Donors were worried that the pandemic would
simply stop the operation of supply chains but due to massive
scale of the market and food demand, supply chain actors
adapted and built resilience, these efforts have not been
universally successful
Globalization
Joseph Stiglitz in his seminal work, ‘Globalization and its Discontent’ made a critique of
globalization in its present manifestation, especially the short sighted economic policies
of the neo- liberals
The biggest risks that lie ahead are the risks of:-
over-correction - A full swing back from the hyper globalization to highly nationalist and
protectionist order however the transition will not be from globalization to de-
globalization.
Identifying new threats that are emerging
e- ERA AND SECURITY CONCERNS
Virtual connectivity, e-responsibility and data protection will shape the
social and cultural paradigms as a shifting power towards technological
acceleration.
Digital transformation can make societies function more smoothly in
times of social tensions as it did in Covid -19 times.
Covid times also witnessed an emerging social fault lines;-
1.which gave rise to new security challenges especially fake news and
disinformation emerged as a potent tools of attack with divisive slogans and
appeals.
2.Bot farms can create thousands of social media accounts to weaponized
information by unleashing a flurry of vituperative and vicious propaganda
material — for causing civil strife and disruption.
This information warfare can be used for destabilization of targeted polity.
Evidence of fracturing geopolitical relationships started to
emerge in 2018 demonstrated by the US and China trade war and
the UK Brexit.
In 2020, the US and China will increase restrictions and
protectionist measures in pursuit of technology leadership leading
to a heightened digital cold war in which data is the prize.
6 Race to develop strategically important next generation
technology will make espionage on smart technology more
intense compared to nuclear, space or information
7Cyber wars are more dangerous then cold war and are beyond
nuclear war. Speculation of American think –tanks in context of
cyber -attack particularly from Russia, China, North Korea and
Iran is the new e- reality of present day world order
Democracy v/s Dictatorship regime
Coronavirus pandemic has not only disrupted democracy but has also reset the terms of
the global debate on the merits of authoritarianism versus democracy .These debates can
be understood:-
Firstly in terms of handling of corona crisis;
Secondly how the pandemic is leading to a rapid expansion of executive power around
the world
Thirdly how democratic structures are facing additional challenges of democratic
governance particularly electoral processes, civilian control of militaries, civic
mobilization.
Democracy - popularity-seeking instead of pursuing technically sound policies
Autocracy- Repression.
U.S. & China - Building global perceptions. U.S. (democracies) while Chinese
(defending their authoritarian approach.)
In Dec 2020 under secretary for economic growth and energy and environment
Keith krach welcomed brazil to the artemis accords as well as to work with
Democracies for space exploration . Similarly , Asst secretary of state for
political military affairs R. Clarke cooper projected the U.S.as the security
partner of choice for nations against authoritarian competitors of china and
Russia suggested to avoid purchase of arms as USA provides better choice
.
whether a change in approaches in thecontext of emerging issues and
complex interdependencies is needed?
what change is needed ?
1Balancing agility
2 Rapid decision making during times of
crisis with a holistic scope
3 Healthy societies
( H.S. are foundation of not only national
security but are also imperative for the
very existence of a Nation state.)
CONCLUSION
The uncertainty as to the precise nature of these
changes is the biggest global security threat
which the global community is facing at the
moment.
Thank You !

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Global Securities : Issues & Challenges (Post-Covid Scenario)global securities.pptx

  • 1. Global Securities : Issues & Challenges (Post-Covid Scenario) Presentation for International Webinar Organized by: Dept of Defence & Strategic Studies, T.G. College, Baramati Dist. Pune M.H. ( India) 15-16 Jan,2020 Ashima Sahni Head Department of Political Science Kanya Maha Vidayalaya (Autonomous) college, Jalandhar
  • 2. OBJECTIVES :- 1. Reviewing the current scope and operation of global security. 2.Identifying New Threats to Global Securities that are emerging ( Covid- times & Post- Covid) 3 whether a change in approaches in the context of global security and complex interdependencies is needed?
  • 3. . Methodology Methodology - Descriptive, Analytical, Historical and Observational. Primary Data - Govt’s Annual Reports of External Affairs ( USA, U.K. China, Russia, E.U. India) Think tanks (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Secondary Data - Books, Journals, Online newspaper of India, China, America Related publication (2000 - 2020 )in Google Scholar &PubMed Publicly available reports from U.N., Security Council & W.H.O Reports of International Food Policy Research Institute
  • 4. OVERVIEW 1Deepening globalization has resulted in a new form of asymmetric security threats which looks beyond traditional military philosophy . 2 current security challenges and risks in global security environment are of a military and non-military nature.
  • 5. Findings of this study 1. Covid is shaping the contours of global Securities . 2. Global Security issues will be China centric . 3 Globalization will loose its current status quo &transition will not be from globalization to de-globalization but “G” with less carbon emissions , surveillance & healthcare. 4. Global health system will be a key actor in measuring the power of nation- state . 5 A shift from Collective Security Arrangement to more Individualistic Approach 6 Mad Race for Strategically Important Next Generation Technology 7 Espionage on smart technology will be more intense as compared to nuclear, space or information.
  • 6. Current Scope And Operation Of G-Security.
  • 7. Global security 1“Absence of Threat” 2Political, Military, and Economic Trends in World 3 Military and Diplomatic Measures that Nations & I- organizations take to ensure mutual safety and security 3 To study sources of potential regional conflict; and emerging threats to the global security environment. 4 How a range of different security agents interact, cooperate and compete, to produce new institutions, practices and forms of security governance.
  • 8. 1930S - G.S Studies emerged in 1930s in era of Military Threats 1940s -Concept of National Interest & National security took center stage 1990s- Non-Military issues ( climate, Eco, Health etc.,)as a threats to state emerged through 1990s in a new approach under COPPENHAGEN SCHOOL 1991 Barry Buzan trail-blazed this approach in 1990s“Societal concerns are likely to assume a prominence on the security agenda that they have not held since before the establishment of the modern European states system.” 1992- Peterson and Sebenius ,crisis in education & economic underclass as a security threat for Powerful states 1995 Lynn-Jones and Miler addressed Virulent Nationalism and social impact of migration as a security threat 1997 Ayoob highlighted that internal rather external threats were security concerns in less developed countries ( Mirchand & Jaichand often quoted by Major Gaurav Arya in his talk shows Offensive Defence in Republic T.V.)
  • 9. Security of State to Human Security End of Cold War brought appraisal of Realist Paradigm of I.R. which Focused Only on Military Security & Inter State Relations. Some neo –Realist, Pluralist and Social Constructivist in I.R. shifted the focus from security of State to Human Security.
  • 10.
  • 11. G.S. Determines Relationship 1. security and the sovereign state 2 structures of political power and authority 3 operations of global capital
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15. GLOBAL GOVERNANCE AND SECURITY CONCERNS G. G brings together diverse actors to coordinate collective action at global level to provide public goods, peace and security, justice and mediation systems for conflict, functioning markets and unified standards for trade and industry. The leading institution in charge of G.G is the United Nations Bretton Woods institutions (W. Bank & IMF) Regional coordinators (EU & ASEAN) Strategic or Economic initiatives under the leadership of one country – NATO for the US or China’s Belt and Road Initiative . Defense or economic integration such as APEC or ANZU World Economic Forum G20, the G7 Multi-stakeholder institutions that aim to align global standards such as Internet Engineering Taskforce (IETF) and the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C).
  • 16. GLOBAL GOVERNANCE : CONCERNS IN COVID TIMES World’s global and national institutions are increasingly incapable of managing stresses to the system. Pandemic has highlighted the failed roles of international organization like W.H.O. U.N. was unsuccessful to bring all the nations to a common platform, thus failing to do its primary role. So, a paradigm shift will be visible in thinking about the collective security system and I. Organizations. There will be shift from a Collective Security Arrangement to a more Individualistic approach .
  • 17. STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS Global geopolitical transition has begun. US hegemony is over. China has emerged as a common enemy. World is shifting to a new multi-polar order with the US and China at its center . Traditional centers of power are showing signs of weakness because of slower economic growth and this can diminish their ambition & military footprint in zones of their interest and may reduce their power projection to zones of their influence.
  • 18. STRATEGIC GEOPOLITICAL COMPETITION 1. Redistribution of military and political means of power will affect both Europe and the USA 2. Review of the global supply chains currently dominated by China. 3Some moves to attribute the causes of this crisis to China may increase tensions. 4 Global Health System is likely to emerge as a key actor in measuring the power of nation-state
  • 19. U.N. IN ACTION Recognizing danger to maintenance of international peace and security, UN Security Council for the first time has called for:- 1. General Ceasefire 2. Humanitarian Pause in Armed Conflicts Across the Globe
  • 20.
  • 21. New Threats New threats -Restrictive measures and tools to contain Pandemic Restrictive Measures- will challenge values such as freedom, democracy & religious practice, which if added to populist movements can increase pre-existing fractures of states . Political exploitation of post-COVID crisis will be legitimized through military and non-military means
  • 22. GLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY Aim of G.H.S - To Build Collective International public health system for action and averting bio-terrorism &containing risks from infectious disease. Evolution of G.H.S- 1.A concept that has evolved over the past 30 yrs. 2.In 2001, the World Health Assembly's Resolution 54.14 ‘Global health security: epidemic alert and response’ linked the health security concept to a global strategy for prevention of movement of communicable diseases across national borders. 3Health of all peoples is “fundamental to their attainment of peace and security” (WHO, 2002).
  • 23. Diverse players G.H.S -In the ‘health security’ game include practitioners in the fields:- 1. Security Studies, Foreign Policy , I. Relation & Development Theory 2 United Nations (UN) Agencies 3 Dept. of Health Development in Respective Countries
  • 24. How adequately current visions of global health security account for? . 1.World War I—20 million deaths 2. 1918 Spanish flu killed as many as 50 million people (Johnson and Mueller, 2002) 3)Interdependencies among human health, animal health, and the environment, their relation are both poorly understood. (Hinchliffe and Bingham, 2008).
  • 25. Traditional Defenses At National Borders Cannot Protect Against The Invasion Of A Disease. A book titled : “A Frame work to counter Infectious Disease Crises”(commission on Global Health Risk Framework for the Future(GHRF), 2016) says that: “ Pandemics cause devastation to human lives and livelihoods much as do wars, financial crises. Pandemic prevention and response, therefore, should be treated as an essential tenant of both national and global security-not just as a matter of health’’ This is one of the reason because of which the traditional definition and military practice of security are fast changing.
  • 26. HOW TO ENSURE GLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY Broader definition of global health security should be considered — 1.One that would extend well beyond the threats of pandemics and bioweapons of mass destruction. 2. systematic focus on the complex interlinkages among human physical and mental health, animal health, and the environment. 3 policymakers and decision-makers should be motivated to see healthy societies as the foundation of national security ( Bouskill, Kathryn E. & Elta Smith, 2019.)
  • 27. ECONOMIC SYSTEM, FOOD SECURITY AND GLOBALIZATION The baseline forecast envisions a 5.2 percent contraction in global GDP in 2020. Deepest global recession in decades IMF, the World Bank and similar institutions will have to play important role in cushioning people from the worst effects of recession. Inadequate economic and political action will lead to greater instability and conflicts in the coming years.
  • 28. Food Security 1The pandemic has posed a serious threat to food security, particularly in poorer countries. 2E-commerce has helped SMEs deliver food to consumers under lockdowns and other constraints, and added to the resilience of the supply chains in developing regions. 3Govt. & Donors were worried that the pandemic would simply stop the operation of supply chains but due to massive scale of the market and food demand, supply chain actors adapted and built resilience, these efforts have not been universally successful
  • 29. Globalization Joseph Stiglitz in his seminal work, ‘Globalization and its Discontent’ made a critique of globalization in its present manifestation, especially the short sighted economic policies of the neo- liberals The biggest risks that lie ahead are the risks of:- over-correction - A full swing back from the hyper globalization to highly nationalist and protectionist order however the transition will not be from globalization to de- globalization.
  • 30. Identifying new threats that are emerging
  • 31. e- ERA AND SECURITY CONCERNS Virtual connectivity, e-responsibility and data protection will shape the social and cultural paradigms as a shifting power towards technological acceleration. Digital transformation can make societies function more smoothly in times of social tensions as it did in Covid -19 times.
  • 32. Covid times also witnessed an emerging social fault lines;- 1.which gave rise to new security challenges especially fake news and disinformation emerged as a potent tools of attack with divisive slogans and appeals. 2.Bot farms can create thousands of social media accounts to weaponized information by unleashing a flurry of vituperative and vicious propaganda material — for causing civil strife and disruption. This information warfare can be used for destabilization of targeted polity.
  • 33. Evidence of fracturing geopolitical relationships started to emerge in 2018 demonstrated by the US and China trade war and the UK Brexit. In 2020, the US and China will increase restrictions and protectionist measures in pursuit of technology leadership leading to a heightened digital cold war in which data is the prize. 6 Race to develop strategically important next generation technology will make espionage on smart technology more intense compared to nuclear, space or information 7Cyber wars are more dangerous then cold war and are beyond nuclear war. Speculation of American think –tanks in context of cyber -attack particularly from Russia, China, North Korea and Iran is the new e- reality of present day world order
  • 34. Democracy v/s Dictatorship regime Coronavirus pandemic has not only disrupted democracy but has also reset the terms of the global debate on the merits of authoritarianism versus democracy .These debates can be understood:- Firstly in terms of handling of corona crisis; Secondly how the pandemic is leading to a rapid expansion of executive power around the world Thirdly how democratic structures are facing additional challenges of democratic governance particularly electoral processes, civilian control of militaries, civic mobilization.
  • 35. Democracy - popularity-seeking instead of pursuing technically sound policies Autocracy- Repression. U.S. & China - Building global perceptions. U.S. (democracies) while Chinese (defending their authoritarian approach.) In Dec 2020 under secretary for economic growth and energy and environment Keith krach welcomed brazil to the artemis accords as well as to work with Democracies for space exploration . Similarly , Asst secretary of state for political military affairs R. Clarke cooper projected the U.S.as the security partner of choice for nations against authoritarian competitors of china and Russia suggested to avoid purchase of arms as USA provides better choice
  • 36. . whether a change in approaches in thecontext of emerging issues and complex interdependencies is needed?
  • 37. what change is needed ? 1Balancing agility 2 Rapid decision making during times of crisis with a holistic scope 3 Healthy societies ( H.S. are foundation of not only national security but are also imperative for the very existence of a Nation state.)
  • 38. CONCLUSION The uncertainty as to the precise nature of these changes is the biggest global security threat which the global community is facing at the moment.