Overview Population Growth Population Definitions The Demographic Transition The Demographic Equation World Population Distribution Population Density Population Data and Projections Population Controls Population Prospects
Population Geography vs. Demography Population geography Focuses on the number, composition, and distribution of humans in relation to variations in the conditions of earth space Spatial analysis Demography The statistical study of human population
Population Growth World population is about 6.7 billion Annual increase of 74-75 million Annual increases have been declining 2006 UN projections  9.2 billion in 2050 9.4-9.5 billion by 2100 Future growth will occur in developing countries
Population Definitions Population measures are made more meaningful by rates and cohort measures Rates Frequency of occurrence during a specified time period Cohort  Population group unified by a common characteristic, such as age
Birth Rates Annual number of live births per 1000 population  Influenced by age and sex structure, customs and family size expectations, population policies High birth rates ( ≥ 30)   Characteristic of agricultural, rural countries in which a high proportion of the female population is young Low birth rates ( < 18)  Characteristic of industrialized, urbanized countries Transitional birth rates (18-30)  Some developing and newly industrializing countries Subject to change
Total Fertility Rates Average number of children born to each woman Replacement level fertility: 2.1-2.3 Worldwide TFR in 2007: 2.7 More-developed countries: 1.6 Less-developed countries: 2.9 Fertility declines in recent decades Dramatic declines in many less-developed countries Changing cultural values TFRs below replacement level Populations may stabilize or grow due to migration
Death Rates Annual number of deaths per 1000 population In the past, varied with levels of development Dramatic reductions in in less-developed countries As a group, death rates now lower than in more-developed countries Also influenced by age structure Infant mortality rate Ratio of deaths of infants aged  1 year or under per 1000 live births Significant declines in modern times
Death Rates Modern medicine and sanitation have increased life expectancy Regional variation in benefits HIV/AIDS Sub-Saharan Africa has been hit hardest Average life expectancy has been cut Food insecurity
Population Pyramids Graphic depiction of the age and sex composition of a population Types of population profiles Rapid growth Slow growth Decline Disrupted growth Population profile influences demands on a country’s social and economic systems Dependency ratio Number of economic dependents that each 100 persons in the productive years must support
Natural Increase and Doubling Time Rate of natural increase   Birth rate minus death rate expressed as a percentage Excludes migration  Doubling time Time it takes for a population to double if current growth rate remains constant 72 divided by rate of natural increase J-curve  Depicts exponential (geometric) growth
Demographic Transition Model of the effect of economic development on population growth Stage 1: High birth and death rates Stage 2: High birth rates and declining death rates Stage 3: Declining birth rates and low death rates Stage 4: Low birth and death rates Stage 5: Death rates exceed birth rates Devised to describe the experience of northwest European countries
A Divided World Converging The population history of Europe was not relevant to all developing countries Many remained in the second stage Introduction of Western technologies of medicine and public health to developing countries Quickly lowered death rates  Birth rates are largely dependent on social acceptance of fewer children Have fallen in some developing countries but remain high in others
Demographic Equation Regional population change is a function of natural change and net migration Population relocation Can relieve pressures of rapid growth Immigration impacts Demographic equation Population structures of origin and destination Emigrant groups are skewed in favor of young singles
World Population Distribution Uneven population distribution Almost 90% live north of the equator 2/3 of total between 20 °  and 60 °  N A large majority occupies a small part of the land  People congregate in lowland areas Continental margins have the densest settlement Four clusters of population East Asia South Asia Europe NE United States/SE Canada
World Population Distribution Ecumene Permanently inhabited areas of the earth Has been extended by technologies Nonecumene Uninhabited or very sparsely occupied zone 35% to 40% of the land surface
Population Density The relationship between number of inhabitants and the area they occupy Crude (arithmetic) density Number of people per unit area of land Physiological density Number of people per unit of arable land Agricultural density Number of rural residents per unit of agriculturally productive land
Overpopulation Value judgment that the resources of an area are insufficient to sustain its present population Not the inevitable consequence of high density A continuing imbalance between numbers of people and the carrying capacity of the land  Number of people an area can support, given the prevailing technology Related to level of economic development
Urbanization Transformation from rural to urban status Rapid growth of cities in developing countries Nearly all world population increase between 2000 and 2030 will be in urban areas of developing countries Consumes a great deal of cropland Problems in densely populated cities in developing countries Lack of housing, jobs, education, health and social services
Population Data and Projections Population data Sources: United Nations, World Bank, Population Reference Bureau, national censuses May be inaccurate Population projections  Based on assumptions applied to current data Not predictions High, medium, and low projections may be given
Population Controls Thomas Robert Malthus Unchecked population increases geometrically, food production increases arithmetically Equilibrium must be achieved between numbers and resources Overpopulation will result in a dieback J-curve converted to S-curve Homeostatic  plateau Population that is equivalent to carrying capacity
Population Controls Neo-Malthusianism Advocacy of population control programs to improve prosperity and well-being Many countries have adopted family planning programs E.g., China Cornucopians Believe population growth is a stimulus to development
Population Prospects Population (demographic) momentum Numbers of births continue to grow as fertility rates per woman decline High concentration of people in the childbearing years Aging Result of transition from high to low levels of fertility and mortality Pace is much faster in developing countries Increasing burdens on working-age populations Potential support ratio is falling

GEOG101 Chapter 6 Lecture

  • 1.
    Overview Population GrowthPopulation Definitions The Demographic Transition The Demographic Equation World Population Distribution Population Density Population Data and Projections Population Controls Population Prospects
  • 2.
    Population Geography vs.Demography Population geography Focuses on the number, composition, and distribution of humans in relation to variations in the conditions of earth space Spatial analysis Demography The statistical study of human population
  • 3.
    Population Growth Worldpopulation is about 6.7 billion Annual increase of 74-75 million Annual increases have been declining 2006 UN projections 9.2 billion in 2050 9.4-9.5 billion by 2100 Future growth will occur in developing countries
  • 4.
    Population Definitions Populationmeasures are made more meaningful by rates and cohort measures Rates Frequency of occurrence during a specified time period Cohort Population group unified by a common characteristic, such as age
  • 5.
    Birth Rates Annualnumber of live births per 1000 population Influenced by age and sex structure, customs and family size expectations, population policies High birth rates ( ≥ 30) Characteristic of agricultural, rural countries in which a high proportion of the female population is young Low birth rates ( < 18) Characteristic of industrialized, urbanized countries Transitional birth rates (18-30) Some developing and newly industrializing countries Subject to change
  • 6.
    Total Fertility RatesAverage number of children born to each woman Replacement level fertility: 2.1-2.3 Worldwide TFR in 2007: 2.7 More-developed countries: 1.6 Less-developed countries: 2.9 Fertility declines in recent decades Dramatic declines in many less-developed countries Changing cultural values TFRs below replacement level Populations may stabilize or grow due to migration
  • 7.
    Death Rates Annualnumber of deaths per 1000 population In the past, varied with levels of development Dramatic reductions in in less-developed countries As a group, death rates now lower than in more-developed countries Also influenced by age structure Infant mortality rate Ratio of deaths of infants aged 1 year or under per 1000 live births Significant declines in modern times
  • 8.
    Death Rates Modernmedicine and sanitation have increased life expectancy Regional variation in benefits HIV/AIDS Sub-Saharan Africa has been hit hardest Average life expectancy has been cut Food insecurity
  • 9.
    Population Pyramids Graphicdepiction of the age and sex composition of a population Types of population profiles Rapid growth Slow growth Decline Disrupted growth Population profile influences demands on a country’s social and economic systems Dependency ratio Number of economic dependents that each 100 persons in the productive years must support
  • 10.
    Natural Increase andDoubling Time Rate of natural increase Birth rate minus death rate expressed as a percentage Excludes migration Doubling time Time it takes for a population to double if current growth rate remains constant 72 divided by rate of natural increase J-curve Depicts exponential (geometric) growth
  • 11.
    Demographic Transition Modelof the effect of economic development on population growth Stage 1: High birth and death rates Stage 2: High birth rates and declining death rates Stage 3: Declining birth rates and low death rates Stage 4: Low birth and death rates Stage 5: Death rates exceed birth rates Devised to describe the experience of northwest European countries
  • 12.
    A Divided WorldConverging The population history of Europe was not relevant to all developing countries Many remained in the second stage Introduction of Western technologies of medicine and public health to developing countries Quickly lowered death rates Birth rates are largely dependent on social acceptance of fewer children Have fallen in some developing countries but remain high in others
  • 13.
    Demographic Equation Regionalpopulation change is a function of natural change and net migration Population relocation Can relieve pressures of rapid growth Immigration impacts Demographic equation Population structures of origin and destination Emigrant groups are skewed in favor of young singles
  • 14.
    World Population DistributionUneven population distribution Almost 90% live north of the equator 2/3 of total between 20 ° and 60 ° N A large majority occupies a small part of the land People congregate in lowland areas Continental margins have the densest settlement Four clusters of population East Asia South Asia Europe NE United States/SE Canada
  • 15.
    World Population DistributionEcumene Permanently inhabited areas of the earth Has been extended by technologies Nonecumene Uninhabited or very sparsely occupied zone 35% to 40% of the land surface
  • 16.
    Population Density Therelationship between number of inhabitants and the area they occupy Crude (arithmetic) density Number of people per unit area of land Physiological density Number of people per unit of arable land Agricultural density Number of rural residents per unit of agriculturally productive land
  • 17.
    Overpopulation Value judgmentthat the resources of an area are insufficient to sustain its present population Not the inevitable consequence of high density A continuing imbalance between numbers of people and the carrying capacity of the land Number of people an area can support, given the prevailing technology Related to level of economic development
  • 18.
    Urbanization Transformation fromrural to urban status Rapid growth of cities in developing countries Nearly all world population increase between 2000 and 2030 will be in urban areas of developing countries Consumes a great deal of cropland Problems in densely populated cities in developing countries Lack of housing, jobs, education, health and social services
  • 19.
    Population Data andProjections Population data Sources: United Nations, World Bank, Population Reference Bureau, national censuses May be inaccurate Population projections Based on assumptions applied to current data Not predictions High, medium, and low projections may be given
  • 20.
    Population Controls ThomasRobert Malthus Unchecked population increases geometrically, food production increases arithmetically Equilibrium must be achieved between numbers and resources Overpopulation will result in a dieback J-curve converted to S-curve Homeostatic plateau Population that is equivalent to carrying capacity
  • 21.
    Population Controls Neo-MalthusianismAdvocacy of population control programs to improve prosperity and well-being Many countries have adopted family planning programs E.g., China Cornucopians Believe population growth is a stimulus to development
  • 22.
    Population Prospects Population(demographic) momentum Numbers of births continue to grow as fertility rates per woman decline High concentration of people in the childbearing years Aging Result of transition from high to low levels of fertility and mortality Pace is much faster in developing countries Increasing burdens on working-age populations Potential support ratio is falling