This presentation on Future Intelligence in Society and Politics starts with an analysis of failures of societies and politics to address long-term survival challenges. Barriers to long-term thinking are described and ways to overcome them are proposed. The presentation was delivered as part of a lecture at HHL and at the 6th international scenario management conference.
[Infographic] 10 lý do để chọn VietravelSteve Nguyen
Being one of the top leading tourism companies in Vietnam today, Vietravel is the most professional and advanced tour packaging service provider. Established and developed since 1995, Vietravel has been continuously expanding and affirming itself not only within the domestic scope but also internationally.
Besides from being a high-class tour packaging service provider, Vietravel is also participating in bringing the Vietnamese travellers to various destination all over the world with newly excited and unique tours. Vietravel is successfully have customers such as the Japanese, Koreans, and Europeans to become our major business partners.
Vietravel has been highly honored to be the organizer of different events of international standards; for example, The Asia – Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) of 2006, The Southeast Asia Undergraduates Sports Festival, The Vesak of 2008, etc…In order to serve our customers in the most satisfied manner, more than 1.000 employees of Vietravel company have been greatly contributing their striving efforts without any hesitations.
Vietravel is not only simply a well-known trademark, but it has also become a very close friend for hundreds and thousands of travelers who supporting Vietravel every year. Vietravel has been honored to become “The Most Prefered Trademark” voted by the Saigon Giai Phong newspaper’s readers for consecutive years, and “The Golden Trademark” of the Vietnam’s tourism industry. Moreover, Vietravel had also received other valuable awards such as “The Most Satisfied Travel Service” voted by Saigon Tiep Thi Newspaper; “Top Trade Services 2008” given by the Trade Ministry; etc…
2013 was a wonderful year when Vietravel was presented the two titles of the leading tour operator and travel agency in Vietnam of the 20 th World Travel Awards (WTA) at a ceremony held in Dubai on October. Also, Vietravel was awarded the Best Travel Agency for Asia prize of the 24 th TTG Travel Awards 2013 at a ceremony held in Bangkok on October 3.
[Infographic] 10 lý do để chọn VietravelSteve Nguyen
Being one of the top leading tourism companies in Vietnam today, Vietravel is the most professional and advanced tour packaging service provider. Established and developed since 1995, Vietravel has been continuously expanding and affirming itself not only within the domestic scope but also internationally.
Besides from being a high-class tour packaging service provider, Vietravel is also participating in bringing the Vietnamese travellers to various destination all over the world with newly excited and unique tours. Vietravel is successfully have customers such as the Japanese, Koreans, and Europeans to become our major business partners.
Vietravel has been highly honored to be the organizer of different events of international standards; for example, The Asia – Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) of 2006, The Southeast Asia Undergraduates Sports Festival, The Vesak of 2008, etc…In order to serve our customers in the most satisfied manner, more than 1.000 employees of Vietravel company have been greatly contributing their striving efforts without any hesitations.
Vietravel is not only simply a well-known trademark, but it has also become a very close friend for hundreds and thousands of travelers who supporting Vietravel every year. Vietravel has been honored to become “The Most Prefered Trademark” voted by the Saigon Giai Phong newspaper’s readers for consecutive years, and “The Golden Trademark” of the Vietnam’s tourism industry. Moreover, Vietravel had also received other valuable awards such as “The Most Satisfied Travel Service” voted by Saigon Tiep Thi Newspaper; “Top Trade Services 2008” given by the Trade Ministry; etc…
2013 was a wonderful year when Vietravel was presented the two titles of the leading tour operator and travel agency in Vietnam of the 20 th World Travel Awards (WTA) at a ceremony held in Dubai on October. Also, Vietravel was awarded the Best Travel Agency for Asia prize of the 24 th TTG Travel Awards 2013 at a ceremony held in Bangkok on October 3.
An overview of the best tools on the market in 5 key areas: Team Management, Project Management, CRM, Website/Domain Management, and Analytics & Testing
Sähköverkkopäivä pidettiin Holiday Innissä Helsingin Pasilassa keskiviikkona 23.11.2016.
Päivän teemana oli "Kohti tulevaisuuden sähköjärjestelmää". Tilaisuudessa käytiin läpi kantaverkon hallinnan ja sähkömarkkinoiden toisiaan täydentävää roolia sekä luotettavan sähköverkon kasvavaa merkitystä tuotannon ja kulutuksen tasapainottamisessa, pohjoismaiselta tasolta aina kuluttajalle saakka.
ELVIS substation maintenance Hannu HätönenFingrid Oyj
In 2008, Fingrid launched a project, the aim of which was to build a new information system that supported asset and operation management and was based on product-based solutions. This new data system that supports asset and operation management goes by the name of ELVIS (an acronym for ELectricity Verkko Information System).
Covid19 and the peripheries: Opportunities and threatsOECDregions
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More information about the book: oe.cd/3g5
More information about OECD work on rural development: oe.cd/3gt
Can national policy address the problems of deprived neighbourhoods? What have been the successes and failures? This presentation illustrates a few of the issues - for some context, see my post here: http://livingwithrats.blogspot.com/2010/04/not-as-broken-as-you-might-think.html
2011 social enterprise boot camp columbia v2Ryan Allis
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I talk about the iContact story, corporate social responsibility, the major improvements we have made as a human species over the past forty years in life expectancy, infant mortality, and per capita income, and how our generation can end extreme poverty in our lifetime.
Working Together so Everyone has a Good Place to Call HomeWellesley Institute
This presentation offers critical insights on how we can work together so that everyone is adequately housed.
Michael Shapcott, Director of Housing and Innovation
www.wellesleyinstitute.com
Follow us on twitter @wellesleyWI
The End of Normal: When Brands and Memes CollideBackslash
How can brands compete for attention in a world dominated by Tide Pods and Yodel Boy? Backslash speaks with TBWA's Chris Garbutt, McDonalds' Colin Mitchell, Cultural Connoisseur Sean Monahan and the Co-Founders of Meme Insider.
An overview of the best tools on the market in 5 key areas: Team Management, Project Management, CRM, Website/Domain Management, and Analytics & Testing
Sähköverkkopäivä pidettiin Holiday Innissä Helsingin Pasilassa keskiviikkona 23.11.2016.
Päivän teemana oli "Kohti tulevaisuuden sähköjärjestelmää". Tilaisuudessa käytiin läpi kantaverkon hallinnan ja sähkömarkkinoiden toisiaan täydentävää roolia sekä luotettavan sähköverkon kasvavaa merkitystä tuotannon ja kulutuksen tasapainottamisessa, pohjoismaiselta tasolta aina kuluttajalle saakka.
ELVIS substation maintenance Hannu HätönenFingrid Oyj
In 2008, Fingrid launched a project, the aim of which was to build a new information system that supported asset and operation management and was based on product-based solutions. This new data system that supports asset and operation management goes by the name of ELVIS (an acronym for ELectricity Verkko Information System).
Covid19 and the peripheries: Opportunities and threatsOECDregions
Presentation made at the launch of the OECD publication, Rural Well-being: Geography of Opportunities on 5 October 2020. Presentation by by Alessandra Faggian, Gran Sasso Science Institute
More information about the book: oe.cd/3g5
More information about OECD work on rural development: oe.cd/3gt
Can national policy address the problems of deprived neighbourhoods? What have been the successes and failures? This presentation illustrates a few of the issues - for some context, see my post here: http://livingwithrats.blogspot.com/2010/04/not-as-broken-as-you-might-think.html
2011 social enterprise boot camp columbia v2Ryan Allis
Here are my slides from a keynote presentation on Sunday at Columbia University's Social Enterprise Bootcamp on Sunday November 20, 2011.
I talk about the iContact story, corporate social responsibility, the major improvements we have made as a human species over the past forty years in life expectancy, infant mortality, and per capita income, and how our generation can end extreme poverty in our lifetime.
Working Together so Everyone has a Good Place to Call HomeWellesley Institute
This presentation offers critical insights on how we can work together so that everyone is adequately housed.
Michael Shapcott, Director of Housing and Innovation
www.wellesleyinstitute.com
Follow us on twitter @wellesleyWI
The End of Normal: When Brands and Memes CollideBackslash
How can brands compete for attention in a world dominated by Tide Pods and Yodel Boy? Backslash speaks with TBWA's Chris Garbutt, McDonalds' Colin Mitchell, Cultural Connoisseur Sean Monahan and the Co-Founders of Meme Insider.
This is Tim Love's second lecture at Oxford University. The first, titled "Advertising & Universal Compatibility, Think Like the Sun," was given March, 2007.
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Présentation réalisée pour B+G - http://bgcom.ch
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Dr. Johannes Meier, CEO European Climate Foundation and Anders Eldrup, CEO DONG Energy gave their assessment of an energy system and a world in transition.
Minister for Climate, Energy and Buildings Martin Lidegaard opened the event with his views on the challenges the world faces.
The Labour Market Monitor is a collaboration and information system developed by Xi GmbH on behalf of the German public employment services. It links stakeholders in regional development processes.
Das AMD-Netz.de ist eine Kollaborationsplattform für Patienten, Angehörige, Ärzte und Wissenschaft zum Thema Altersbedingte Makula Degeneration. Patienten können anhand ihrer Profildaten Patienten mit ähnlichen Profilen finden.
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This Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit was created by ex-McKinsey, Deloitte and BCG Management Consultants, after more than 5,000 hours of work. It is considered the world's best & most comprehensive Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit. It includes all the Frameworks, Best Practices & Templates required to successfully undertake the Digital Transformation of your organization and define a robust IT Strategy.
Editable Toolkit to help you reuse our content: 700 Powerpoint slides | 35 Excel sheets | 84 minutes of Video training
This PowerPoint presentation is only a small preview of our Toolkits. For more details, visit www.domontconsulting.com
Event Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challengesHolger Mueller
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B2B payments are rapidly changing. Find out the 5 key questions you need to be asking yourself to be sure you are mastering B2B payments today. Learn more at www.BlueSnap.com.
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3. How you can capture more CRM data to understand your audience better through video testimonials. 📊
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In this keynote, Luan Wise will provide invaluable insights to elevate your employer brand on social media platforms including LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok. You'll learn how compelling content can authentically showcase your company culture, values, and employee experiences to support your talent acquisition and retention objectives. Additionally, you'll understand the power of employee advocacy to amplify reach and engagement – helping to position your organization as an employer of choice in today's competitive talent landscape.
An introduction to the cryptocurrency investment platform Binance Savings.Any kyc Account
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An introduction to the cryptocurrency investment platform Binance Savings.
Future Intelligence in Society and Politics
1. Future Intelligence in Society and Politics
Dr. Johannes Meier
ManagingDirector Xi GmbH
Board Member Bertelsmann Foundation
Mai 2009
2. Weightdevelopment of ThanksgivingTurkey
Surprise!!
6 kg
5 kg
4 kg
Weight
3 kg
2 kg
1 kg
0 kg
Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez
Source: N. Taleb, „The Black Swan“ Johannes Meier 2
4. Collapse
Factorsdrivingcollapse of
societies:
1. naturalchanges in theclimate
2. environmentaldamagecause
dbypeoplethemselves
(inadvertentlyornot)
3. a decline in
supportfromneighborsortradi
ngpartners
4. hostileneighbors
5. how a societyanticipates and
reacts to itsproblems
Source: Jared Diamond Johannes Meier 4
von vtveen
5. Central role of values - development
• Whatissurvival?
JaredDiamond‘simportantdistinctionbetweenbiological
and socialsurvival
• Common assumption:
Biologicalsurvivaldepending on civilisationalvalues
• Problem:
Wecanbelaw-abiding and peace-loving and tolerant and
inventive and committed to freedom and true to
ourownvalues and still behave in
waysthatarebiologicallysuicidal(The New Yorker, Malcolm
Gladwell )
Johannes Meier 5
6. Example: link between demography
and climate change
1. Scenario 2050
Developed countries: -40% CO²
Developing counties: same CO²/per capita Future?
Total emissions at current level Likely global warming:
2. Scenario 2050 Regionally different impacts
Developed countries: no reduction CO² Floodings
Developing counties: double CO²/per capita Droughts
Total emissions + 90%
Migration waves
3. Scenario 2050
Developed countries: -40% CO²
Developing counties: double CO²/per capita
Total emissions + 66%
Johannes Meier 6
7. Why was and still isthere so
littlefutureintelligence?
1. Methodologicalbarriers
2. Barriers of politicalrationality
3. Psychologicalbarriers
Johannes Meier 7
8. Why was and still isthere so
littlefutureintelligence?
1. Methodologicalbarriers
2. Barriers of politicalrationality
3. Psychologicalbarriers
Johannes Meier 8
9. The future is
open, ambiguous, dialectical
Fundamental trends Future space
Age of Age of
Large information and … of freedom and ideas … of confusion and
communication streams propaganda
… collective intelligence … of individualism
cooperative solutions
… of joint and civil … of trivial pursuits
engagement
Compression of time, distance … of global reach … of global disruptions
and access
Increasing access of poor … of global well-being … of self-interest and
nations and in parallel protectionism
increasing asymmetries
Inadequate ethical and spiritual … of higher awareness … of ideologicalbattles
codes in the face of global risks
Source: KetanPatel Johannes Meier 9
Source : based on Ketan Patel „The Master Strategist: Power, Purpose and Principle“ 2005
10. Themethodologicalchallenge
• Interdependenciesbetweentrends, risks, interventions
• Decouplingof societalactionfromspace and time restrictions
• Reflexivityof life in modern societies:
socialpracticesareconstantlybeingevaluated and adapted in
the face of
newinformationwhichischangingtheircharacterfundamental
ly (Anthony Giddens)
• Divergent interpretations and fundamental
assumptionsacrosscultural and semioticcontexts
Process of production of sharedmeaning and
valuesiscritical
Johannes Meier 10
11. Why was and still isthere so
littlefutureintelligence?
1. Methodologicalbarriers
2. Barriers of politicalrationality
3. Psychologicalbarriers
Johannes Meier 11
12. Politicalrationality
• Interest of gaining and protecting power
• Majorityprinciple of (today‘s) electorate
Maximizingvotes
• Party democracy
Logic of gainingprofile of and within party
• Media democracy
Daily ratings
Old saleswisdom:
„The fast dollarbeatstheslowdollar“
(Short-termsensitivitybeatslong-termreflection)
Johannes Meier 12
13. State spending and income 2004 and
population profile 2004 in Germany
1.600 25.000 €
1.400
20.000 €
1.200
Population in 1,000
1.000 15.000 €
800
600 10.000 €
400
5.000 €
200
0 0€
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81
Age
Population 2004 Taxes and contributions per head
Transfer payments and state consumption per head
Johannes Meier 13
14. State spending and income 2004 and
population profile 2020 in Germany
1.600 25.000 €
1.400
20.000 €
1.200
Population in 1,000
1.000 15.000 €
800
600 10.000 €
400
5.000 €
200
0 0€
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81
Age
Population 2020 Taxes and contributions per head
Transfer payments and state consumption per head
Johannes Meier 14
15. State spending and income 2004 and
population profile 2030 in Germany
1.400 € +285 bn 25.000 €
1.200
20.000 €
1.000
Population in 1,000
800 15.000 €
600 10.000 €
400
5.000 €
200
0 0€
1 5 € -118 bn 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65€ 69 73 77 81
9 13 17 -403 bn
Age
Population 2030 Taxes and contributions per head
Transfer payments and state consumption per head
Johannes Meier
16. Johannes Meier
Complication: lack of accruals for
pension obligations
123 125
117
99
88
70
66
58
50 53
34
19
11 15
6 7 9
5 4 4 3
AU
K
S
H
L
O
FR
BE
ES
SE
Z
JA
A
K
E
IS
IE
AT
FI
IT
D
N
N
U
U
C
D
D
C
N
EC
O
Pension fund savings, % GDP, international, 2005
Source: Salverda 2007, OECD
17. Projection of federal and statelevel of
debt 2020 (in T€ per capita)
2020
today
Source: Schuldenmonitor BST 2007 Johannes Meier 17
18. Why was and still isthere so
littlefutureintelligence?
1. Methodologicalbarriers
2. Barriers of politicalrationality
3. Psychologicalbarriers
Johannes Meier 18
19. ShlomoShoham‘sanalysis
Looking forward with
anxiety
Turning
inwards
No energy for
planning and creating Vicious Circle
a future
Preserving the
present reality
Using force to
prevent change
Source: ShlomoShoham: 1. Knesset Commissionerforthe Future Generations Johannes Meier 19
21. 1. Methodologicalinnovations
Instead of conventionalapproaches Focus on thegaps
• Extrapolation of past • Includingwildcards, theunthinkabl
e, theutopia
• Disciplinaryreductionism • Mapping of interdependencies
and networkingacrossdisciplines
• Discourse of elites/experts • Discourseacrossperspectives of
many (elites + citizens)
• One-waycommunication of a • Interactiveco-production of
„final“ expertrationality interpretations
• Anxietyscenarios • Visualization of desirablefutures
Johannes Meier 21
22. 2. Creating relevanceforcitizens
• Anticipatingthefuture in
relevant contexts
• Emotionalisation
• Communicating on a large
scale
• Grass-
rootsparticipationopportunit
ies
• Politiciansreactwithacutesen
sibilitywhenthecitizens‘
moodswings
Source: www.wegweiser-kommune.de Johannes Meier 22
23. 3. Breakingtheviciouscircle
The inner source for
creating the future
The courage to
Broad view on
create in the
Humanity real
unknown Changing
needs
awareness
The courage to Intuitive study
let go of the field
Listening and
containing
Source: ShlomoShoham: 1. Knesset Commissionerforthe Future Generations Johannes Meier 23
24. Example: Theory U as a newapproach
to futureplanning (orrathercreation)
Source: Claus Otto Scharmer, MIT Johannes Meier 24
Source: Claus Otto Scharmer, theoryu.com
26. Example: nextpracticeanalysis of
„resonancespaces“ forchange
intuitive
judgements
Level of attitudes
Level of consciousopinions
Level of actualbehaviourpatterns
Source: Peter Kruse, nextpractice Johannes Meier 26
27. Development of Germany – Changes in associations
Inequity and
Solidarity and feeling of security
antiquatedrolemodels
Povertyproblems and lack of Income security and
performance distributionjustice
60ies
Bureaucracy and Optimismforfuture and can-
scarcitymanagement 70iesr doattitude
80ies Ideal image
Resignation and Self-reliance and leverage
two-thirdssociety of all potential
90ies
today
Greed and growth ideology principal Citizen engagement and
at expense of children potential culturalrichness
expected
future
Power politics and personal Integration capability and
interestsdominating optimal educationsystems
Innovation and personal
performancestrength
Source: nextpracticestudy on demographicchange in Germany (n = 111)
Johannes Meier 27
for Forum Demographic Change of thePresident, 2 April 2009
28. Theelusivemiddleground
zentrale Wertepräferenzen der verschiedenen Gruppen
Solidarity
Benefitfor Benefit of
individual community
Eicht preferencegroups
Focus on Focus on
personal socialresponsibility
development
Contribution of Contribution of
individual “whatisimportant to mequot; community
Performance
Source: nextpracticestudy on demographicchange in Germany (n = 111)
Johannes Meier 28
for Forum Demographic Change of thePresident, 2 April 2009
29. Signs of hope
Institutionalinnovations
• Commission for Future
Generations (Israel)
• Innovation Units (UK)
• Wecansolveit.org (USA)
• IPCC (INT)
• Forum Demographic
Change of thePresident (D)
von RebelBlueAngel
Johannes Meier 29
30. Instead of a summary
The best way to predictthefutureis to shape it.
Willy Brandt
Itisclearthefutureholdsgreatopportunities.
It also holdspitfalls. Thetrick will be to
avoidthepitfalls, seizetheopportunities, and get
back homebysix o'clock.
Woody Allen
Johannes Meier 30