This document discusses whether museums can help save the world by becoming more sustainable in the future. It suggests that in 20-40 years, sustainable museums may be embedded in their communities, have a small environmental impact, and be financially stable. It then provides several scenarios for how California museums could change and adapt, such as becoming more distributed throughout communities, catering to an aging population, or revolutionizing education. The document argues that culture and museums can help create social connections, shift values towards less materialism, and drive innovation to solve world problems and create a happier society.

1. Can
museums
save the
world?
Steve Connor

2. - What will museums be like in 20, 30 or 40
years time if they are truly sustainable?
- Embedded in communities, treading lightly
on the planet and financially thriving?

3. A TINY CHALLENGE FOR YOU.
See the future.

4. A TINY CHALLENGE FOR YOU.
Save the world.

5. A TINY CHALLENGE FOR YOU.
Embrace change.

6. and smile

7. See the future.

11. SCENARIO
LIMITS
A
B PREDICTED
C
FUTURE
D
SCENARIO
LIMITS

12. WHAT FUTURE?

13. ONE EXAMPLE

14. WE’RE GETTING ON A BIT.

15. 2008
2033

16. Our Changing Age
15.00
11.25
Millions
7.50
3.75
0 2008
0-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75-84 85 & over 2033

17. Support
40
30
THERE WILL BE MORE OF
20 US, AND FEWER OF THEM
10
0
2008 2033
Working age
Pension age
ONS 2009

18. WE MIGHT NEED TO MAKE OUR
LABELS A BIT BIGGER.

20. TRENDWATCHING

21. SCRAMJET 3D PRINTING PEAK OIL

23. How we’re getting hitched
120
90
Thousands per year
Religious ceremonies
Civil ceremonies in approved premises
HAVE YOU GOT ONE
60
OF THESE?
30
1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
ONS 2009

24. TOMORROW
IN THE
GOLDEN STATE
MUSEUMS AND THE FUTURE OF CALIFORNIA
A GUIDE FOR FORECASTING AND PLANNING

25. Scenario 1 - The Distributed Museum
- Underlying Trends: - Increased desire to create - Disruptive Event:
walkable communities,
- An increase in technological - A series of terrorist attacks
tools and platforms that helping to conserve energy, on public venues—
support a “Maker” or do-it- lower the environmental museums, sporting events,
yourself culture. impact of transportation and concerts and festivals—
increase quality of life. starting in 2015.
- Pop-up retailing, moveable
culture. - Increased tendency of
municipalities to pressure
- New technologies (social museums to pay property
and creative) that support a tax, or make payments in
more participatory culture lieu of property tax.
and foster an expectation of
shared authority.

26. Scenario 2 - The 21st Century Silver Rush
- Underlying Trends: - Four out of five Baby - Disruptive Event:
Boomers see work as
- Elderly Californians (age - Passage of Proposition
65+) are the fastest growing playing a role in their 1096, reforming the state’s
population group in the retirement years, with only real estate laws.
state. 14% of the state’s 20% anticipating retiring
residents will be 65 or older and not working at all (aarP).
by 2020—and 18% by - People increasingly want to
2030. “age in place” rather than
consigning themselves to
- Biomedical advances
continue to improve the retirement homes.
ability of seniors to remain
mobile and active.

27. Scenario 3 - Calibalkanization
- Underlying Trends: - Political scientists have - Disruptive Event:
identified signs of a new
- There is a dramatically - Severe national recession
increasing gap in wealth segregation by political starting in 2016
between richest and beliefs.
poorest. The percentage of - Progressive cuts to local
american wealth held by the and state funding of basic
top 1% of the population fell services due to financial
as low as 20% in 1976, and stress.
rose to 35% by 2010.

28. Scenario 4 - A revolution in Education
- Underlying Trends: - Rise of the virtual - Continued cuts in state
classroom, interactive funding for primary and
- Growth in home-schooling
and alternatives to public content over the web. secondary education.
schools. - Increasing desire for - Disruptive Event:
specialized curricula to
- Disillusionment with - Election of a progressive
standardized tests, more accommodate religious, governor able to rally the
expectations for outcomes- cultural or political beliefs. legislature to pass radical
based learning, reduced - Rising awareness of the educational reform
trust in public school need to provide multi-modal
system. learning in order to provide
equitable education to
diverse learners.

29. Scenario 5 - The Universal Culture Pass
- Underlying Trends: - Continued economic stress - Disruptive Events:
and the continued rise in
- Rising public expectation - Establishment of a California
(reinforced by the wealth of price of traditional certification board for
free content on the internet) entertainments. cultural nonprofits.
that entertainment and - Increased use of portable, - Mandated free admission to
information be free. distributed payment all state museums.
systems.

31. Save the world.

32. In the last quarter century...
Redefining Prosperity: UK Sustainable Development Commission 2009

33. In the last quarter century...
Global Economy 100%
Carbon Emissions 40%
Global Ecosystems -60%
Redefining Prosperity: UK Sustainable Development Commission 2009

34. We (the UK) are consuming
three planets each.

35. What makes us happy?
Redefining Prosperity: UK Sustainable Development Commission 2009

36. What makes us happy?
Partner/spouse and family relationships 47%
Health 24%
A nice place to live 8%
Money and finances 7%
Religious or spiritual life 6%
Community and friends 5%
Work fulfilment 2%
Don’t know 1%
Redefining Prosperity: UK Sustainable Development Commission 2009

37. The debt burden
- Personal debt in the UK more than
doubled from 1990 to today.
- Even during the 2008 recession, it
was growing at the rate of £1m
every 11 minutes.
- In 2008 it reached £1.5 trillion,
higher than our GDP .

39. “Growth for the sake of
growth is the philosophy of
the cancer cell.”
Edward Abbey

40. My pitch
- Happiness and wealth fell - Non-materialist forms of - Reaching people, and
out with each other more social capital and fighting for headspace, is
than half a century ago. experience are part of the a core strength of the
solution. cultural sector.
- We need to ‘reboot’
economics and find a way - Culture and the
to achieve prosperity experience economy can
without growth. win us back from
materialism.

41. My pitch
- Culture creates the places - Innovation must no longer - Culture can (help to) save
and spaces that people be the preserve of the world.
want to be in, fostering a consumerist ‘novelty’ and
more compelling and desire but has to become
competitive identity. part of how we craft our
collective future.

43. “Our commonest economic error is
the assumption that production and
trade are our only practical
activities, and that they require no
other human justification or
scrutiny.
“We need to say what many of us
know in experience: that the life of
man, and the business of society,
cannot be confined to these ends;
that the struggle to learn, to
describe, to understand, to educate
is a central and necessary part of
our humanity.”
Raymond Williams
Raymond Williams, Communications, 1962

44. Embrace change.

45. WHO
ATE ALL THE
QUANGOS?

46. Taking part...
- 66% of adults took part in
two or more different
cultural or sport sectors
- 79% had visited historic
environment sites
- 65% had visited a museum,
gallery or archive
- 54% used a public library
DCMS Taking Part Survey 2009

47. The value of ‘taking part’
- Mental wellbeing (or happiness!)
- Social cohesion and stronger communities
- Volunteering and engagement
- Lifelong learning
- Mass innovation and inspiration

48. Provocati
on 01: No
vember 2
006
The Ten H
Mass Inno abits of
By Charle
vation
-Innovative societies
s Leadbeater
are good at mingling:
they encourage people
and ideas to find one
another and combine
creatively.
!"##!$%&
''((()

49. Cultural solutions:
- Building social capital
- An ‘alternative hedonism’
- Changing values and shifting behaviours
- Reducing our carbon footprint
- Stronger places and competitive identity
- Genuine innovation
- A happier world

50. Can
museums
save the
world?
Steve Connor