The document discusses the existential threats posed by climate change and overconsumption. It references opinions that humanity may not survive rising temperatures of 2°C or 4°C due to food shortages. The author also notes predictions of a major culling of the human population this century, potentially reducing numbers by 90% to sustainable levels of around 1 billion people by 2100. Throughout, it emphasizes the need for rapid changes to transition to sustainable systems within planetary boundaries.

1. Sustainability,
Prosperity,
Survival,

2. I’m terrified.
2

3. January 22, 2009

4. James Lovelock,
Author of the
Gaia Theory
Q: Do you think we will
survive?
A: I don't think humans
react fast enough or are
clever enough to handle
what's coming up.
January 22, 2009

5. The problems:
science vs ideology
desire vs need
no broadly accepted vision

6. A singularity

8. 8

9. 9

10. Pillars of CreaBon
Destroyed by supernova 6,000 years ago

11. Bang

12. 3,000 galaxies

13. milky way 500,000,000,000 stars

15. Sun

18. Streams of material and energy flow
from the sun and planetary sources
through the economic system to
the planetary sinks where
wastes and pollutants
end up.
There are limits, however, to the rates
at which sources can produce these materials
and energy without harm to people, the economy,
or the earth’s processes of regenera9on and regula9on.

19. 19

20. http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch8en/conc8en/img/biosphere.gif

22. In 1972 the world’s
populaBon and economy were
sBll comfortably within the
planet’s carrying capacity.
There was sBll room to grow
safely while we could examine
longer‐term opBons.
But there was a possibility of
total collapse, “overshoot.”

23. Very very very very
few people think
this large, this far out

24. Yale economist Henry C. Wallich
labeled the book “a piece of
irresponsible nonsense”

25. “The most amazing aspect of the
book is how accurate many of the
basic trend extrapolaBons sBll are
some 30 years later.”
Ma?hew Simmons

26. “The data comparison presented
here lends support to the
conclusion that the global system
is on an unsustainable trajectory
unless there is substanBal and
rapid reducBon in consumpBve
behavior, in combinaBon with
technological progress.”
A Comparison of the Limits to Growth with 30 Years of
Reality ‐ Graham Turner, Commonwealth ScienBfic and
Industrial Research OrganisaBon, Australia

27. The world has
overshot some of
its limits, and
without changes
we face the
virtually certain
prospect of a
global economic
collapse.
‐1992

28. Humanity has squandered the
opportunity to correct our
current course over the last 30
years, and much must change if
the world is to avoid the serious
consequences of overshoot in
the 21st century. ‐2004

29. THE DRIVING FORCE: EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
For more than a century, the world has been experiencing exponenBal
growth in a number of areas, including populaBon and industrial producBon.

30. The greatest shortcoming of
the human race is our
inability to understand
exponenBal funcBon.
Dr. Albert A. Bartle`,
Department of Physics, U. Colorado Boulder
30

31. 31

32. Effect of Growth Rates over one lifetime (70 years)
time period 70 years
rate of growth factor
current pop 6,000,000
1% 2 12,000,000
2% 4 48,000,000
3% 8 384,000,000
4% 16 6,144,000,000
5% 32 196,608,000,000
32

33. 30,000,000
Houston
at the end
of the century 22,500,000
15,000,000
7,500,000
2005 population
0
2035 population
33
2065 population
2095 population

34. Herman Daly’s
definiBon of sustainability:
Development without growth
beyond environmental
carrying capacity, where
Herman Daly
development means
qualitaBve improvement
and growth means
quanBtaBve increase

35. No American newspaper
or television station
reported this story.
“We are basically looking now at
a future climate beyond anything
we’ve considered seriously
in climate model situaBons.”
Christopher Field
Carnegie Institution for Science, Co-
chair, Working Group II of the IPCC,
testifying before the Senate,
Committee on Environment and Democracy Now, February 26, 2009
Public Works

36. “This is a
moment of great
volaBlity and
instability in the
world system.
We need
urgently to do
what we can to
avoid deep
collapse.”
‐C.S. Holling

37. arabianbusiness.com/542705-the-end-of-the-world-is-nigh
seedmagazine.com/news/2009/02/urban_paradox.php

38. [White House science advisor] John Holdren compared
global warming to being “in a car with bad brakes
driving toward a cliff in the fog.”

39. James Lovelock,
Author of
the Gaia Theory
Ques9on: Do you think we will survive?
Answer: I'm an opBmisBc pessimist. I think it's wrong to assume we'll
survive 2°C of warming: there are already too many people on Earth.
At 4°C we could not survive with even one‐tenth of our current
populaBon. The reason is we would not find enough food, unless we
synthesized it.
Because of this, the cull during this century is going to be huge, up to
90 per cent. The number of people remaining at the end of the
century will probably be a billion or less.
It has happened before: between the ice ages there were bo`lenecks
when there were only 2000 people lej. It's happening again.
39

40. In 1972 our recommendaBons
told how to slow growth.
Now we must tell people how
to manage an orderly reducBon
of their acBviBes back down
below the limits of the earth's

41. January 22, 2009

42. PopulaBon levels
off between 2030
and 2070 – and
begins to decline

43. Financial

44. Total income by quintiles 1979-2002

45. People Turning 65 in Year
Thousands
0
500
1,00 0
1,50 0
2,00 0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
The Senior Tsunami
2008
2009
2010
2011
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

46. Economic chaos

47. Quality of life vs standard of living

48. Nature‐deficit disorder
describes the human costs
of alienaBon from nature,
among them:
diminished use of senses,
a`enBon difficulBes,
high crime rates,
depression,
higher rates of physical
and emoBonal illness
other urban maladies.

49. “this may be the first generaBon
of Americans to live less long
than their parents.”
Dr. Robert N. Butler, InternaBonal Longevity
Center, Mount Sinai School of Medicine

50. 50

51. 51

52. Global sources
Food travels between
1,500 miles and 2,500
miles to reach your plate.
We fly le`uce here
from Australia.
Hurricanes, terrorism,
and energy prices can
cause major disrupBons.

53. PolluBon moves
through the food
Contaminants accumulate
and are passed along.

54. The global view
Plenty of food. DistribuBon restricted by economics, culture,
government corrupBon, warfare, and more.

55. 2009 drought
55

56. Energy security a
growing worry

57. DistribuBon trouble

58. Not just global warming
Economic meltdown
Growing wealth gap
Energy shortages
Shorter lives?
Food security
Declining health
Increasing stress
58

60. So…. ?

61. The European Vision
Polycentric region, polycentric ciBes
The European Union plans a future
in which regions with mul9ple
centers organize
into collaboraBve
economic clusters that
form sustainable networks
of access, mobility, and
green infrastructure.
SOURCE: United Nations Secretariat
World Urbanization Prospects:

62. •Randstad,
Netherlands

63. We are a metro na9on.
80% of us live in metro areas
85% of jobs are in metro areas

64. It’s about nodes in a network.

65. Megaregions

67. 2050 ‐ Growth in the Texas Triangle

68. Watersheds

69. Ecoregions

70. The concept:
Strategies:
multiple centers
• Protect the ecostructure
organized into
• Enhance regional connections
collaborative economic
clusters that form
sustainable
networks of access,
mobility,
and
green infrastructure

71. By
Ebenezer Howard
1898

73. Longest walk:
3/4 mile
1.5 miles
Center to edge:
3/4 mile
Fifth Avenue:
1.6 miles
Grand Avenue:
3.3 miles
Railroad
5 miles

76. Welwyn Garden City, UK , 120,000 population

77. Ulm, Germany, 120,000 population

80. CiBes,
Towns,
Villages,
Neighborhoods
80

81. American preferences
Pew Research Center, Social & Demographic Trends project

82. Pew Research Center, Social & Demographic Trends project

83. Pew Research Center, Social & Demographic Trends project
By a ratio of more than three-to-one, Americans
prefer living where the pace of life is slow, not fast.
The
Pace
of Life
walking
speed vs.
populaBon
Borstein & Bornstein
Nature 1976
Bornstein, IJP 1979

84. Strategy:
Change the story
Change the goals
Change the informaBon flow

86. Map:
Houston Wilderness

97. “Houston was
T
O
designed
N
around
the car.”

98. Originally, Houston was a charming Swiss village

99. Houston began as a smart growth port.

100. With a great urban plan

101. Early development was based on transit

102. 1927
UnBl the 1940s,
Houston was
transit‐oriented
Houston 1.0: Walkable Urbanism

103. Then came Plan B,
Houston 2.0.
Social engineering
public policy
designed to force
a lifestyle

104. Energy consumption vs.population density
Source: adapted from Newman, P. and J. Kenworthy (1999) Sustainability and Cities

106. 3,538,000
more people

109. Massive loss of greenspace
including prairie, forest, marshland, riparian, and agricultural land

111. Another
loop.
(each beltway lowers
retail & service trade
2%‐5%*)
*Nelson & Moody
(J. Urb. Pl. & Dev. 2000)

112. 112

113. Citizen goals:

114. The 2035 RTP Goals:
1. Improve mobility, less congesBon, and cost.
2. Build stronger communiBes.
3. Increase transit.
4. Preserve floodplains for water detenBon and
recreaBon.
5. Healthier environment.

115. “Activity intensity” =
jobs + residents/acre
Intensity below 14 people/acre
begins rapid acceleration of car
dependency
“Urban Design to Reduce Automobile Dependence,” by Peter Newman and Jeffrey Kenworthy

116. Central Business District
•
Town Center
•
Railway
•
Local Center
•
Transit Ci9es
•
Bus or LRT route
•

117. Leon Krier

119. Houston
Dispersed
Is polycentric
density
1
2
4
3
4

121. Projected ridership:
Rail‐ 250,000 boardings
supporBve per day
areas
Central
Business
District
Uptown/Galleria
Greenway
Universities
Gulfton
Med
Center

122. Rail‐ Station areas
supporBve could absorb
areas 1/2 of City’s
population growth
Pop 200,000
Jobs 450,000
25% of all jobs

123. Houston 3.0: Walkable Urbanism (again)

124. The new
(old) model

125. Conceptual plan
for restructuring
an automobile
city
Networks
& Nodes

127. New Approach: Sustainable Mobility
Neighborhood Center
Town Center
Regional Center
Urban Core
Connections

128. Vehicle Miles Traveled per Household

135. “Fingers of nature”
in every
neighborhood

138. Sustainable Houston
Regions with mulBple centers
organize into collaboraBve
economic clusters that form
sustainable networks of access,
mobility, and green infrastructure.

139. Sustainable Houston
where development means
qualitaBve improvement

140. Sustainable Houston
Quality of life > Standard of living

141. Sustainable prosperity in a changing world
houstontomorrow.org

142. sustainable growth?
sustainable development?
sustainable economics?
sustainable prosperity?
sustainable health, safety, welfare, happiness?
Quality of Life = Standard of Living
Quality of life > Standard of Living

144. 144

145. 145

146. A biome is a large
geographic area with
similar or unique plants,
animals, and climate.
146