!"#$%&(")*+,-*.+"-./+"0-12")34*+5"%60+"./                                                                7*-*8",/29"+(:/)"...
!"#$%&()*+&",((B:*(&2"5*2(/8./+*(0+/.*(:*+/)/"%C
!-+.&-.(/01DEFE/8$--$"%-9+"8/%/+&G-/+#$4/-4"%(+$50A%&("&2"5*2(/8./+*(0+/$%4+/*-/-
!-+.&-.(/001,(H"(/%A*2/8$--$"%-9+"8+/8*$%$%&9"--$2+/-"0+4/-4"02,+/-02($%EFE2/#/2-9*+*5"#/IJJ..8
23.(45.)%-4((
23.()*664DK+/:08*%-4*0-$%&&2"5*2)*+8$%&C
748-3*6*8,((9K."4*2G.-/L""%C<$+/!/--*&/-M/,04/N/2$/9$%E2"5*2B*+8$%&5G?"%(+*,$4A%&>0-(3B"+2,N/2$/9-O!"#$%&#()*+$,,#)*-./012...
:()$#;#%-($+45().$4).-%<.,(B:*(("*4("%C                            (                            P9G"0+Q$,)*-2$Q/2G("5/:$(5...
•  ?*%60+"./5/.+"-./+"0-*%,2")34*+5"%C   •  B:*(*+/$88/,$*(/2/#/+-9"+$%,0-(+GC   •  B:*(,"/-$((*Q/(")$%C
•  ?*%60+"./5/.+"-./+"0-*%,2")34*+5"%C   •  B:*(*+/$88/,$*(/2/#/+-9"+$%,0-(+GC   •  B:*(,"/-$((*Q/(")$%C
?*%60+"./5/.+"-./+"0-*%,2")34*+5"%C                                </W%$(/2GG/-X
M/%/)*52//%/+&G4"-(-:*#/,/42$%/,$%(:/.*-(*%,90+(:/+,/42$%/-4*%5//Y./4(/,$%(:/90(0+/
M/%/)*52//%/+&G,$#/+-$(G4"%(+$50(/-("+/2$*52/-0..2G
•  ?*%60+"./5/.+"-./+"0-*%,2")34*+5"%C   •  B:*(*+/$88/,$*(/2/#/+-9"+$%,0-(+GC   •  B:*(,"/-$((*Q/(")$%C
RJS,/4*+5"%$Z*A"%"#/+*228/*%-%/*+2G9022,/4*+5"%$Z*A"%$%  .")/+1+"*,(+*%-."+(*%,50$2,$%&-    GtCO2e per year               ...
H")/+&/%/+*A"%)$22&",")%,0/(":$&:/+/[4$/%4G  *%,0.,0/("*,,$A"%*2,/8*%,9+"890/2-:$  EU-27 plus Norway and Switzerland power...
6%/+&GL*#$%&-)$(:."(/%A*2("4"#/+:*29(:/6]^-RJSEFE/8$--$"%-+/,04A"%-(*+&/(5GUJ_J                                           ...
`:/."(/%A*2("42"-/(:/&*.?*.(0+$%&(://Y$-A%&-*#$%&-."(/%A*2+/a0$+/-*85$A"0-*4A"%*4+"--*22/%,30-/-/4("+-
B:G6%/+&GL*#$%&-CN/%/W(-"9UJS5GUJUJD  •  ?0b%&/%/+&G5$22-5GcdR5$22$"%9"+60+"./*%4"%-08/+-*%,50-$%/--/-     *%%0*22G5GUJUJ ...
•  ?*%60+"./5/.+"-./+"0-*%,2")34*+5"%C   •  B:*(*+/$88/,$*(/2/#/+-9"+$%,0-(+GC   •  B:*(,"/-$((*Q/(")$%C
?*.(0+$%&*#*$2*52//%/+&G-*#$%&-+/a0$+/-*8$Y"9."2$4G$%-(+08/%(-                                                =.&.>#?6.(.&...
6]."2$4G*+4:$(/4(0+/       K$+."220A"%*%,EFE   6%/+&G-*#$%&."2$4$/-               ."2$4$/-
6]."2$4G*+4:$(/4(0+/                          Ud
?"%420-$"%P8*&/-"9(:/90(0+/
`FKghij]@jMij]MK``6g`Pjge":*%%/-=8/$/+k/0+"./*%42$8*(/="+&
Moving towards a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Moving towards a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Moving towards a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Moving towards a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Moving towards a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Moving towards a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Moving towards a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Moving towards a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Moving towards a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Moving towards a prosperous, low-carbon Europe

921 views

Published on

Keynote given at the C3-forum in London on 1 June 2011.

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
2 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
921
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
6
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
2
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Moving towards a prosperous, low-carbon Europe

  1. 1. !"#$%&(")*+,-*.+"-./+"0-12")34*+5"%60+"./ 7*-*8",/29"+(:/)"+2,; <+=>":*%%/-!/$/+60+"./*%?2$8*(/@"0%,*A"%
  2. 2. !"#$%&()*+&",((B:*(&2"5*2(/8./+*(0+/.*(:*+/)/"%C
  3. 3. !-+.&-.(/01DEFE/8$--$"%-9+"8/%/+&G-/+#$4/-4"%(+$50A%&("&2"5*2(/8./+*(0+/$%4+/*-/-
  4. 4. !-+.&-.(/001,(H"(/%A*2/8$--$"%-9+"8+/8*$%$%&9"--$2+/-"0+4/-4"02,+/-02($%EFE2/#/2-9*+*5"#/IJJ..8
  5. 5. 23.(45.)%-4((
  6. 6. 23.()*664DK+/:08*%-4*0-$%&&2"5*2)*+8$%&C
  7. 7. 748-3*6*8,((9K."4*2G.-/L""%C<$+/!/--*&/-M/,04/N/2$/9$%E2"5*2B*+8$%&5G?"%(+*,$4A%&>0-(3B"+2,N/2$/9-O!"#$%&#()*+$,,#)*-./012,2($03,*40$#%0#*56778*
  8. 8. :()$#;#%-($+45().$4).-%<.,(B:*(("*4("%C ( P9G"0+Q$,)*-2$Q/2G("5/:$(5G* 4*+)$(:*.+"5*5$2$(G"9RJS1IJS1 TJS1UJS1V= ):/%)"02,G"0(*Q/*4A"%("-(". G"0+Q$,.2*G$%&$%(:/-(+//(C
  9. 9. •  ?*%60+"./5/.+"-./+"0-*%,2")34*+5"%C •  B:*(*+/$88/,$*(/2/#/+-9"+$%,0-(+GC •  B:*(,"/-$((*Q/(")$%C
  10. 10. •  ?*%60+"./5/.+"-./+"0-*%,2")34*+5"%C •  B:*(*+/$88/,$*(/2/#/+-9"+$%,0-(+GC •  B:*(,"/-$((*Q/(")$%C
  11. 11. ?*%60+"./5/.+"-./+"0-*%,2")34*+5"%C </W%$(/2GG/-X
  12. 12. M/%/)*52//%/+&G4"-(-:*#/,/42$%/,$%(:/.*-(*%,90+(:/+,/42$%/-4*%5//Y./4(/,$%(:/90(0+/
  13. 13. M/%/)*52//%/+&G,$#/+-$(G4"%(+$50(/-("+/2$*52/-0..2G
  14. 14. •  ?*%60+"./5/.+"-./+"0-*%,2")34*+5"%C •  B:*(*+/$88/,$*(/2/#/+-9"+$%,0-(+GC •  B:*(,"/-$((*Q/(")$%C
  15. 15. RJS,/4*+5"%$Z*A"%"#/+*228/*%-%/*+2G9022,/4*+5"%$Z*A"%$% .")/+1+"*,(+*%-."+(*%,50$2,$%&- GtCO2e per year Abatement within Abatement from fuel EU-27 total GHG emissions Sector Total abatement sector1, 2 shift 5,9 Power 95% to 100% >95% 5.3 5.4 5.2 75% (electric Road 95% 20% vehicles, biofuels and 1.2 transport fuel cells) 1.2 1.2 -80% Air & sea 50% 30% 20% (biofuels) 0.9 1.0 transport 0.9 = + 0,5 0,6 0,7 Industry 40% 35% (efficiency, 5% (heat pumps) CCS3) 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 Buildings 95% 45% (efficiency) 50% (heat pumps) 0,1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0,4 0,1 0.6 Waste 100% 100% 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0 0.2 -0.3 0,1 Agriculture 20% 20% 1990 2010 2030 2050 2050 Forestry -0.25 GtCO2e Carbon sinks abated1 Abatement estimates within sector based on the McKinsey Global GHG Cost Curve2 Large efficiency improvements are already included in the baseline based on the IEA WEO 2009, especially for industry3 CCS applied to 50% of large industry (cement, chemistry, iron and steel, petroleum and gas, not applied to other industries)SOURCE: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve; IEA WEO 2009; US EPA; EEA; Team analysis
  16. 16. H")/+&/%/+*A"%)$22&",")%,0/(":$&:/+/[4$/%4G *%,0.,0/("*,,$A"%*2,/8*%,9+"890/2-:$ EU-27 plus Norway and Switzerland power demand, TWh per year 4.900 4,800 200 950 500 3.450 450 3.400 800 Power Baseline Buildings Industry Power EVs in Buil- Industry3 Power demand demand power genera- transport1 dings2 in decarbonized 2005 demand tion pathways 2050 2050 including Efficiency energy Fuel shift efficiency1 Electrification of 100% LDVs and MDVs (partially plug-in hybrids); HDVs remain emitting ~10% while switching largely to biofuel or hydrogen fuel cells2 90% of remaining primary energy demand converted to electricity (heating/cooling from heat pumps); assumed 4 times as efficient as primary fuel3 10% of remaining primary energy demand for combustion converted to electricity (heating from heat pumps); assumed 2.5 times as efficient as primary fuel
  17. 17. 6%/+&GL*#$%&-)$(:."(/%A*2("4"#/+:*29(:/6]^-RJSEFE/8$--$"%-+/,04A"%-(*+&/(5GUJ_J
  18. 18. `:/."(/%A*2("42"-/(:/&*.?*.(0+$%&(://Y$-A%&-*#$%&-."(/%A*2+/a0$+/-*85$A"0-*4A"%*4+"--*22/%,30-/-/4("+-
  19. 19. B:G6%/+&GL*#$%&-CN/%/W(-"9UJS5GUJUJD •  ?0b%&/%/+&G5$22-5GcdR5$22$"%9"+60+"./*%4"%-08/+-*%,50-$%/--/- *%%0*22G5GUJUJ •  ?+/*(/-2"4*2e"5-7"#/+"%/8$22$"%%/)e"5-5GUJUJ; •  M/,04/-6]/%/+&G$8."+(,/./%,/%4G •  ?"%(+$50(/-("(:/*4:$/#/8/%("9(:/UJSM6L(*+&/( •  H0(-(:/6]"%(+*4Q("*4:$/#/RJ3f_SEFE+/,04A"%5GUJ_J*(2")/-( 4"-(-
  20. 20. •  ?*%60+"./5/.+"-./+"0-*%,2")34*+5"%C •  B:*(*+/$88/,$*(/2/#/+-9"+$%,0-(+GC •  B:*(,"/-$((*Q/(")$%C
  21. 21. ?*.(0+$%&*#*$2*52//%/+&G-*#$%&-+/a0$+/-*8$Y"9."2$4G$%-(+08/%(- =.&.>#?6.(.&.$8(@+$.-%<.( (
  22. 22. 6]."2$4G*+4:$(/4(0+/ K$+."220A"%*%,EFE 6%/+&G-*#$%&."2$4$/- ."2$4$/-
  23. 23. 6]."2$4G*+4:$(/4(0+/ Ud
  24. 24. ?"%420-$"%P8*&/-"9(:/90(0+/
  25. 25. `FKghij]@jMij]MK``6g`Pjge":*%%/-=8/$/+k/0+"./*%42$8*(/="+&

×