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  2013 Trends



  What will the key changes be in business
  and design during 2013, and what should
  you do about it?




Slide 1 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
AN INTRODUCTION
At Fjord we work across multiple domains that are      As usual, the trends point at some recurring
going through major transitions – and the work         themes: for 2013 the following weave their way in
always involves an element of “new.” A new             and out of our forecasts:
platform or technology, a new business                 That mobile is still changing everything – if
proposition, or new target users. We work at the       anything faster, and now including new ways of
front edge of mainstream, where innovation meets       working.
mass-market appeal. The constant presence of           That personalisation will be a hot topic for success.
“new” in our work feeds our curiosity, and makes
                                                       That data and the success of new systems are
exploration a necessity.
                                                       tightly bound together.
So we constantly think about what tomorrow will
bring. At the end of the year we ask teams at          And as ever – for truly great service design - people
                                                       come first.
Fjord to offer their predictions on the major trends
that will impact businesses and society in the year    We hope you find our 2013 trends interesting,
to come. We know that trends can both inspire          provocative, inspiring, and importantly, actionable.
and worry those responsible for shaping the next       If you want to delve deeper into our thoughts on
wave of products and services. So we've also tried     what you should be doing to stay ahead of the
to give some clear advice that will help both          curve, please reach out for a customized
designers and business leaders understand how to       presentation by Fjord on the trends that will have
interpret the opportunities that lie ahead.            the most impact on your business.




Slide 2 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#1
PEOPLE ARE                            The single biggest source of digital disruption
                                      over the past decade has been people – the users
                                      of technology themselves.

RUINING                               Access to technology has made it possible for
                                      anyone with an idea, a vision and determination to

EVERYTHING
                                      build a service that circumvents traditional
                                      businesses.
                                      And the platforms that people use to trade with
for traditional businesses            one another are far richer than any single business
                                      could build.

Slide 3 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#1 PEOPLE ARE RUINING EVERYTHING                    for traditional businesses


                                                                                     This trend began with user-generated content. The first




                                                                  WHAT’S NEXT 2013
                                                                         THE PAST
                                                                                     wave was well underway by 2000 with Napster and
                     2007                                                            Blogger.
                     YouTube’s                                                       Now, 80% or more of the content consumed online is
                     bandwidth
                     equaled that of                                                 user-generated. This has caused massive disruption
                     the entire internet                                             across all the content creation and publishing industries,
                     in 2001                                                         from broadcasters to newspapers to the music industry.
                                                                                     But the emergence of new business models that sit
                                                                                     between traditional ownership and illegal exchange (see
                                                                                     our trend, ‘Access is the New Ownership’) suggests that
2011                                                                                 the area is as much an under-exploited opportunity for
AirBnB saw 500%                                                                      businesses as a potential threat to their livelihood.
growth in nights
booked 2011.
                                                                                     
                                                                                     The past few years have seen a dramatic upswing in




                                                                         THE NOW
                                                                                     
                                                                                     peer-to-peer services, which has begun to disrupt several
                                                                                     industry verticals including travel and transportation.
                                                                                     Services like AirBnB, Getaround and Lyft have
                                                                                     understandably caused much alarm amongst traditional
                                                                                     businesses, which has contributed to political action in
               2012                                                                  some areas and raised the possibility of regulation.
               Lyft, Sidecar  Uber
               were each fined
                                                                                     Peer-to-peer funding platforms like Kickstarter and
               $20K by the CPUC                                                      Indiegogo have also begun to disrupt the way that
               for alleged public                                                   businesses are created and grown, bypassing the
               safety violations                                                    traditional investment framework. While these platforms
                                                                                     are facing their own challenges, Kickstarter's funding
                                                                                     success rate is far higher than many industry experts
                                        2012                                         predicted, at around 45% on average and as high as 70%
                                        Crowdfunding is                              in the top category.
                                        expected to reach
                                        $500 million in 2012,                        
                                        up from $33 million
                                        in 2010.

       Slide 4 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#1 PEOPLE ARE RUINING EVERYTHING                    for traditional businesses



                                                                                          Peer-to-peer services will continue to grow, in areas of




                                                                       WHAT’S NEXT 2013
                                                                                          finance and personal services as well as the segments in
                           2012                                                           which they are already substantial players. Traditional
                           Etsy’s sales have                                              businesses will continue to try to arrest this growth
                           grown around 69%                                               through legislative or political action, but the startup
                           Year-on-Year                                                   community has come to see these kinds of challenges as
                           2010-11 and 2011-12.
                                                                                          a badge of honour.
                                                                                          This disruption will be joined by a third wave, in the area
                                                                                          of peer-to-peer manufacturing and distribution. This wave
2013                                                                                      began long ago with resale and exchange platforms like
Staples will launch
Easy3D, a 3D printing
                                                                                          Ebay and Freecycle, but it has been transformed through
service available to all                                                                  craft-focused peer-to-peer platform Etsy.
its customers in the                                                                      Looking further, Fjord anticipates this peer-to-peer
US.
                                                                                          manufacturing revolution to crest as 3D printing becomes
                                                                                          accessible to everyone. We are already seeing movement
                                                                                          in the creation and publication of peer-to-peer 3D
                                                                                          printing plans: although fraught with legal difficulty, we
                     2013                                                                 expect this movement to gather momentum in 2013.
                     Car sharing is                                                       
                     rapidly growing in
                     the UK and EU,
                     with Whipcar
                     about to close a
                     round of funding



                     2013                     2012
                     Makerbot’s               TaskRabbit
                     Replica 2 will be        announces
                     available from           marketing
                     January 2013 for         partnership with
                     less than £1800.         Gap in December


        Slide 5 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#1 PEOPLE ARE RUINING EVERYTHING          for traditional businesses



                                                                             If you can't beat 'em, join 'em: shutting down peer-to-




                                                            FJORD SUGGESTS
                                                                             peer services through legislative action is unlikely to be
                                                                             productive in the mid-term. Instead, traditional
                                                                             businesses will need to find new ways to remain
                                                                             competitive.
                                                                             Explore new business models that bring traditional and
                                                                             P2P players together through partnership or acquisition,
                                                                             extending the traditional business' value and the peer-
                                                                             to-peer service's reach.
                                                                             Well-established brands can facilitate peer-to-peer
                                                                             engagement in relevant areas to extend their brand
                                                                             value and customer relationships.
                                                                             Old-fashioned and controlled branding and marketing is
                                                                             not effective anymore. Upgrade your brand to ensure
                                                                             interactivity and digital are in the core brand DNA,
                                                                             encouraging – not fighting – feedback and peer-to-peer
                                                                             engagement.




    Slide 6 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#2
I BELONG                              The past year has seen a massive rise in the number of
                                      organisations gathering personal data from their users. There’s
                                      also been a growth in user awareness of data collection issues,

TO ME                                 mainly in Europe rather than the US.
                                      As users become more aware of what can be done with their
The personal data battlefield         information, they are beginning to demand access, and real
                                      value, in return for their data.
                                      The data exists in two forms:
                                      •  Aggregate information, in which anything that identifies the
                                          individual is stripped out, enabling businesses to show
                                          broader trends and comparisons.
                                      •  Individual information, which is tied to the specific person.


Slide 7 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#2 I BELONG TO ME The personal data battlefield

                                                                      Online retailers and services like Amazon, Google and
                     2007




                                                           THE PAST
                                                                      Facebook have been gathering user behavioural data for
                     Netflix launches the                             years. Aggregated data drives recommendations engines,
                     Progress Prize,
                     $1,000,000 to anyone
                                                                      and personal data drives targeted marketing and
                     who can improve their                            advertising.
                     recommendation
                     engine.
                                                                      The argument around use of personal data intensified during




                                                           THE NOW
                                                                      2012. Notable examples include the Facebook class action
                                                                      launched by Austrian law student Max Schrems, the pending
                                                                      EU legislation it has influenced, the argument between
2010                                                                  advertisers, service providers and users around recognising
Nike+ GPS app                                                         Do Not Track requests, and the ongoing discomfort amongst
launches, enabling                                                    users - some surveys have indicated that users even believe
runners to track
their data on iOS.
                                                                      that advertisers on Google's platform know their home
                                                                      address.
                                                                      In service terms, we have seen that misuse of information has
                                                                      immediate and severe impact on relationships - when
                                                                      Facebook began transparently posting all the articles we
                                                                      read through their apps, usage of these publication apps
                                                                      dropped like a stone almost overnight.
                                                                      The fact that there are so many alternatives available for
               2011                                                   virtually any service means that users are increasingly walking
               Citibank launches                                      away from experiences that they find creepy or
               iPad app with data                                     uncomfortable, taking their business elsewhere.
               enhancements.
                                                                      Finally, targeted advertising is less effective than true
                                                                      advocacy in building profitable relationships. Advocates
                                                                      spread the word to their peer networks, where it is far more
                                        2012                          likely to be heard than from the brand or business itself.
                                        Scandinavian                  
                                        operator Three
                                        makes the mobile
                                        bill visual and
                                        transparent

       Slide 8 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#2 I BELONG TO ME The personal data battlefield

                                                                      EU legislation in 2013 will have an impact. Whether its rulings will




                                                   WHAT’S NEXT 2013
                                                                      be immediately enforced is a legitimate question, but affected
                         2012                                         businesses certainly need to start thinking about a course of
                         State Farm  Ford                            action immediately.
                         team up to gather                            At the very least, 2013 will see dramatic growth in user
                         actuarial data direct                        awareness around their data, and potentially also a series of
                         from the vehicle.
                                                                      tools aimed at helping normal people manage and control who
                                                                      sees their data, when and how.
                                                                      As the proliferation of service players continues, particularly as
                                                                      we see more and more traction for over-the-top players in
                                                                      verticals like personal finance, striking the right balance between
2013                                                                  data gathered and value delivered will become increasingly
Ubuntu, Mozilla, 
                                                                      critical to the success of many large businesses, notably banks
Tizen OS released.                                                    and insurance companies.
                                                                      Fjord also expects the wave of data visualisation to continue to
                                                                      grow, driving value and building relationships between
                                                                      individuals and those who help them to extract value from their
                                                                      own behaviours.
                                                                      Finally, three new mobile operating systems will arrive in 2013,
                                                                      and we expect at least some of these to include some level of
                 2013                                                 personal data management as part of their software.
                 EU Legislation will
                                                                      
                 define privacy
                 terms.




                 2013
                 Services like
                 ReclaimPrivacy,
                 Untangle, Unroll.me
                 begin to gather
                 steam.


       Slide 9 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#2 I BELONG TO ME The personal data battlefield

                                                                   Make the most of aggregate data. It can go a long way




                                                  FJORD SUGGESTS
                                                                   to improve your product and customer service without
                                                                   demanding hyper-personal information.
                                                                   Work to turn your customers’ data into actionable
                                                                   insights – for them. Transparency builds trust and lasting
                                                                   relationships.
                                                                   Be the one who makes sense of Big Data for the little
                                                                   guy.
                                                                   Design for data re-use; Allow data to be exported and
                                                                   aggregated, not stuck in proprietary silos.




     Slide 10 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#3
DAWN                                            We’ll soon start to see connected devices infiltrating more
                                                areas of our lives – but this could lead to information
                                                overload for some of us.
OF THE                                          As we are confronted with more data visualisations about
                                                our lives, homes, jobs or health, we are likely to develop

PERSONAL                                        what's been called 'chart fatigue', making it difficult to
                                                extract meaning from data that should be valuable to us.
                                                This will set the scene for what Fjord calls ‘Living Services’
ECOSYSTEM                                       – the point at which individual 'smart' objects interconnect
                                                to form a support network for their owner. This is when a
Connected objects start to take their place -   set of connected objects becomes greater than the sum of
right by your side                              its parts: your ‘personal ecosystem’.


Slide 11 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#3 DAWN OF THE PERSONAL ECOSYSTEM Connected objects start to take their place – right by your side

                                                                                  In the early days of smartphones, the range of available




                                                             WHAT’S NEXT 2013
                                                                    THE PAST
                                                                                  services was extremely limited, often based on the
                                                                                  capabilities of the device, or on the restrictions of the
                      2008                                                        mobile service provider.
                      i0S App Store                                              But since the concept of an app store was taken into the
                      Android Market                                              mainstream, users have increasingly been building their
                      launch
                                                                                  own personal app ecosystems made up of whatever they
                                                                                  personally believe is useful and important.
                                                                                  While Apple keeps a tight rein on what's allowed in its
                                                                                  App Store, users in general have far more control over
2011                                                                              their software than ever before.
i0S App Store                                                                     
reaches 500K
                                                                                The personal ecosystem, developed by the app store
apps




                                                                     THE NOW
                                                                                mobile experience, is migrating into the physical world.
                                                                                The past 18 months have seen the beginnings of mass-
                                                                                market adoption for a select few connected objects, driven
                                                                                by the services that make them meaningful. Nike Fuelband
                                                                                and Jawbone Up are two examples from the wellness
                                                                                sector, while Nest is a connected home example.
                                                                                Looking at Kickstarter, the next 12 months should see an
                2011-2012                                                       explosion of connected and smart objects spanning a huge
                Jawbone Up, Nike+
                Fuelband launch
                                                                                range of technologies and applications.
                                                                                At the same time, some telcos are beginning to measure
                                                                                their revenue in terms of account (ARPA) rather than by
                                                                                device or by single user (ARPU). This means they're taking
                                                                                steps to combine their views of customer behaviour across
                                                                                devices and contexts, building a picture that could be used
                                        2012                                    to create a business and technical infrastructure to support
                                        Verizon launches                        Living Services.
                                        “Share Everything”
                                                                                
       Slide 12 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#3 DAWN OF THE PERSONAL ECOSYSTEM Connected objects start to take their place – right by your side

                                                                                     As more and more objects come onto the market, over-




                                                                  WHAT’S NEXT 2013
                                                                                     the-top data services will begin to form around them to
                                                                                     drive increased value.
                          2011                                                       The earliest of these are likely to be wellness-driven
                          GreenGoose launches                                        (like Tictrac), or focussed on finance. In the near term,
                          the first consumer-                                        however, individual users will still have to engage with
                          centric sensor kit
                                                                                     multiple services and touchpoints to get the value of
                                                                                     their things. There will also be a rise in single-purpose
                                                                                     objects that foster intimate relationships between
                                                                                     people: one example is the Good Night Lamp, which
                                                                                     makes its debut at CES in 2013.
2012                                                                                 We are beginning to see a lot of innovation come from
Tictrac enters beta
launch
                                                                                     smaller, crowdfunded players and component
                                                                                     companies. We may also start to see plug-in hardware
                                                                                     that will extend the lifespan of a handset in the next
                                                                                     two years – BTLE technology means that a sensor can
                                                                                     run for a year on a single battery, making these small
                                                                                     devices far more viable than ever before.
                                                                                     The 'battle for the wrist' will hit the mainstream in
                                                                                     earnest in 2013, with a variety of approaches coming to
                  2011                                                               market focused on everything from health and wellness
                  Macaw launches on                                                  to information and entertainment.
                  iOS  Android
                                                                                     
                                                                                     


                  2012
                  ToyTalk (founded by
                  ex-Pixar employees)
                                               2013
                  secures $11.5M in            Good Night Lamp
                  funding                      to launch at CES
                  

        Slide 13 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#3 DAWN OF THE PERSONAL ECOSYSTEM Connected objects start to take their place – right by your side

                                                                          Designers need to increasingly focus on designing for




                                                         FJORD SUGGESTS
                                                                          the glance.
                                                                          Service-based businesses can help users tie together
                                                                          elements of their object ecosystem to extract further
                                                                          value.
                                                                          Interactions should be segmented into things that are
                                                                          best done and seen on small dedicated devices, and
                                                                          things best done on the smartphone that they
                                                                          inevitably will connect to.
                                                                          Objects that fit naturally into people’s lives will be the
                                                                          big winners in this wave, if they can be simple and
                                                                          appealing while adapting to users’ habits and priorities.




     Slide 14 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#4
KEEP IT                                  As digital progress marches on, so does complexity.
                                         Ever-increasing volumes of data constantly threaten

SIMPLE
                                         the efforts of service designers to create elegant,
                                         focused, and simple solutions.
                                         But at the same time, more organisations are finding

STUPID                                   that a focus on simplicity can have a transformative
                                         effect on services and businesses alike.
Good old-fashioned K.I.S.S. principles   As Albert Einstein said: “Everything should be made
make a comeback                          as simple as possible. But not simpler.”


Slide 15 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#4 KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID Good old-fashioned K.I.S.S. principles make a comeback

                                                                                   Simplicity has a long track record of success. Ikea's




                                                                WHAT’S NEXT 2013
                                                                       THE PAST
                                                                                   bare-bones proposition of modern, simple products at
                                                                                   affordable prices has made it one of the world's leading
                                                                                   retailers. Zipcar's straightforward and flexible offer led
                       PRE-2000                                                    to extremely quick adoption of an entirely new
                       Ikea, Netscape,                                             transport proposition.
                       Google
                                                                                   In the digital world Skype was able to gain huge global
                                                                                   market share with an unprecedented proposition
                                                                                   because they made the service incredibly easy to
2003                                                                               understand. And every web browser still shows its basis
Skype is founded.                                                                  in Netscape's simple browser controls, while Google
Since, it has become
                                                                                   search disrupted the search-and-portal world with its
the largest
international voice                                                                ultra-minimalism.
carrier.                                                                           Other examples include Amazon’s One-click shopping,
                                                                                   and the Apple Touch iOS, which revolutionised
                                                                                   mainstream mobile interaction by taking it from indirect
                                                                                   to direct response.

                                                                                   Some users have started to complain that they feel
                                                                        THE NOW    overwhelmed by the omnipresent digital world.
               2010                                                                ‘Slow Living’ and ‘Slow Food’ were just two examples of
               Slow Living lifestyle                                               the backlash against our high-velocity digital lifestyle.
               and philosophy                                                      Now we are also seeing that single-purpose apps and
               brand founded
                                                                                   services are gaining ground, feeding a desire for
                                                                                   simplification.
                                                                                   Examples include how Square created a $3 billion
                                         2010                                      company in under three years through simplification of
                                         Square launches in
                                         January. Less than 3
                                                                                   the bureaucratic process of becoming a credit-card
                                         years later, the                          merchant. Or how Bank Simple has changed the
                                         company is valued                         conversation in the banking sector.
                                         at $3 billion.
                                                                                   
       Slide 16 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#4 KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID Good old-fashioned K.I.S.S. principles make a comeback

                                                                               As personal ecosystems grow, so does the




                                                            WHAT’S NEXT 2013
                                                                               challenge. We will need to make meaning of more
                        2012                                                   data from more sensors, public, private and
                        Misfit Shine, the
                        quarter-sized                                          corporate, and the simplest solutions will continue
                        personal activity                                      to win.
                        tracker, announced to
                        critical acclaim.                                      Leaders in simplification will continue to disrupt
                                                                               and transform. As choice and options multiply,
                                                                               solutions and companies that can guide users
                                                                               through the mess will have an opportunity to
                                                                               become trusted advisors.
2012                                                                           
Dropbox grows to
over 100 million
users worldwide




                                                2012
                                                PayPal announces
                                                reorganisation
                                                around the
                                                principle of
                                                Simplicity


      Slide 17 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#4 KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID Good old-fashioned K.I.S.S. principles make a comeback

                                                                            Focus on what can be removed rather than what could




                                                           FJORD SUGGESTS
                                                                            be added. Make sure every single feature, element, and
                                                                            interface drives real value for the user.
                                                                            Be ruthless about prioritization. Bravely go to the pain
                                                                            threshold that separates “extremely simple” from “plain
                                                                            dumb”.
                                                                            Use mobile as a primary tool to drive simplicity across
                                                                            products and services.
                                                                            Apply the principles of simplicity internally: how could
                                                                            your teams, your structure, be leaner and more effective?
                                                                            Take action to simplify internal communication and
                                                                            ways of working, and this will enable you to reflect that
                                                                            simplicity outward as well.




     Slide 18 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#5
REVOLUTION
                                            Personalisation is nothing new in the digital world,
                                            but comparatively few shopping services actually
                                            feel close to the individual.
                                            Fjord expects this to change in 2013, as the online
                                            and offline retail environments continue to merge,
                                            creating a more holistic and immersive customer
                                            experience.

IN RETAIL                                   Mobile payments have definitely been disruptive in
                                            2012, with a huge rise in the number of transactions
                                            made on mobile - but the changes we’ll see next are
The Online/Offline distinction disappears   about far more than just mobile payments.


Slide 19 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#5 REVOLUTION IN RETAIL The Online/Offline distinction disappears

                                                                                  Personal service was the promise of the independent




                                                               WHAT’S NEXT 2013
                                                                      THE PAST
                                                                                  local shop for the better part of the 20th century. Even
                                                                                  now, consumers feel deep loyalty to the sellers who
                                                                                  recognise them, get to know them, and help them
                      PRE-2000                                                    discover the best deals on suitable merchandise.
                      Local shops, Amazon,                                        We’ve seen these interactions mirrored in the digital
                      Netflix
                                                                                  world with Amazon's and Netflix's highly-regarded
                                                                                  recommendation engines. Suggestions for shopping
                                                                                  have become the norm in the online world.
2010                                                                              As the Internet went mainstream, peer-to-peer reviews
                                                                                  also began to inform shopping, while price-comparison
RedLaser is                                                                       engines play to our desire to get the best deal.
Guardian's Consumer
App of the Week
                                                                                  A statistic to strike fear into the heart of any retailer: half




                                                                       THE NOW
                                                                                  of US smartphone users have used their devices in-store,
                                                                                  and more than half of those have gone on to abandon
                                                                                  their in-store purchase.
                                                                                  For smartphone users, the distinction between online and
                                                                                  in-store shopping has all but disappeared.
               2010                                                               The mobile payment disruption we saw in 2012 has led to
               Starbucks
               announces                                                          the additional side effect of shared retail spaces in some
               partnership with                                                   European cities, giving independent merchants
               Square
                                                                                  unprecedented access to the purchasing public.
                                                                                  Apple has reinvented the in-store experience,
                                                                                  transforming it from traditional shop to showroom by
                                                                                  eliminating the need to queue at a till. Now that
                                                                                  geofencing technology has opened the door to
                                        2012                                      completely frictionless payment and location and ambient
                                        Apple launches fully                      data make it possible to hyper-tailor services, there is a
                                        DIY shopping in US
                                                                                  big field of opportunity and risk.
                                                                                  
       Slide 20 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#5 REVOLUTION IN RETAIL The Online/Offline distinction disappears
                                                                                      
                                                                                      Fjord believes the key to retail success lies in creating




                                                                   WHAT’S NEXT 2013
                                                                                      experiences that make customers feel better. A
                         2012                                                         shopping experience that feels smarter or easier can be
                         EU chain DM begins                                           more valuable for many customers than simply getting
                         offering customers e-                                        the best deal.
                         receipts for in-store
                         purchases                                                    Key factors that ensure success are increasingly going to
                                                                                      be based on recognition, recommendation, follow-
                                                                                      through, and support.
                                                                                      The penetration achieved by new mobile payment
                                                                                      systems, as well as the ready availability of mobile
2012                                                                                  devices, will kickstart a revolution in in-store customer
CA tests
Facebook Like
                                                                                      service. Shop staff will be equipped with tablets or
hangers in Sao                                                                        smartphones to deliver improved individual service.
Paolo
                                                                                      Opt-in location based services will help customers find
                                                                                      precisely what they're looking for, when they're looking
                                                                                      to buy, and will enable them to pay on the spot without
                                                                                      queuing. 2013 will see the introduction of frictionless
                                                                                      payment in more markets around the world, with
                                                                                      security and shrinkage challenges arising from this
                 2012                                                                 technology.
                 Neiman Marcus to                                                     Virtual shops will take hold in the physical world, with
                 equip sales staff
                 with smartphones                                                     grocery aisles on train platforms and social network
                                                                                      ratings on hangers. We will also see QR codes and other
                                                                                      buying methods in more shop windows and restaurants,
                                                                                      opening entirely new revenue streams for some while
                                                                                      extending shopping hours for others.
                                              2013                                    These changes will see customers move closer to
                                              Tesco to launch                         effectively managing their shopping lives, in similar ways
                                              virtual grocery at                      to how recent technology shifts have given them new
                                              Gatwick Airport
                                                                                      powers over their social lives.
                                                                                      
       Slide 21 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#5 REVOLUTION IN RETAIL The Online/Offline distinction disappears

                                                                          Design commerce services that make use of smartphone




                                                         FJORD SUGGESTS
                                                                          sensors and contextual data – camera, gyroscope, time
                                                                          of day and location.
                                                                          Design innovative and simple solutions for small
                                                                          merchants. This is a big group of merchants, yet they are
                                                                          not digitally savvy at all. Inventory management,
                                                                          customer relationships, loyalty solutions, digital
                                                                          storefronts – these can be life-changing services for small
                                                                          merchants.
                                                                          Businesses that team up with local independent
                                                                          merchants and makers (both online and offline) can
                                                                          drive value within the local economy.
                                                                          Providing a 'memory' of a customer’s past purchases
                                                                          can help small and large vendors alike develop the kinds
                                                                          of relationships only small boutiques traditionally have,
                                                                          with face-to-face recommendations that are more
                                                                          effective than digital ones.
                                                                          Re-imagine the boring things and make them engaging.
                                                                          As PayPal and Square have shown, even something as
                                                                          painful as paying can be pretty cool!




     Slide 22 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#6
ACCESS
                                       We’ve seen seismic shifts in the area of digital distribution
                                       of music, movies and media in every form. Now, as
                                       individuals increasingly consume media across devices,
                                       they expect their purchases to be available on multiple
                                       platforms, no matter what.

IS THE NEW                             Likewise, in the past we used to project our status and
                                       success through the things we own – the car in the
                                       driveway, the holiday home, our media collections. But

OWNERSHIP                              increasingly status is now projected through our
                                       experiences and pursuits, and consequently access and
                                       flexibility – rather than traditional ownership – are
What does it mean to own something
in the digital age?                    growing central to what we crave.


Slide 23 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#6 ACCESS IS THE NEW OWNERSHIP What does it mean to own something in the digital age?

                                                                                 Music was the first industry to feel the bite of P2P




                                                              WHAT’S NEXT 2013
                                                                     THE PAST
                                                                                 sharing from Napster onwards. Next came audio-
                                                                                 visual content (TV and Film), which has been the
                    2011                                                         topic of much legal action over the past few years.
                    Megaupload,
                    Megavideo                                                   Timesharing property used to be seen as a slightly
                    RapidShare receive                                           downmarket way for the less wealthy to access
                    over 21 billion visits/yr                                    property in desirable areas. In Europe and a few
                                                                                 American cities, short-term holiday lettings began in
                                                                                 the early 00s but didn't begin to catch on until much
                                                                                 later.
2011
                                                                                 Spotify has proved that consumers are willing to pay to




                                                                     THE NOW
Hulu sees 60%
growth from 2010,                                                                rent music if they feel they're getting a valuable service.
with 1.4m paid                                                                   But this is a totally different model to the traditional CD
subscribers
                                                                                 distribution business, and record labels are still struggling
                                                                                 to get to grips with it.
                                                                                 Yet despite the fears of music industry executives,
                                                                                 statistical evidence continues to show that people who
                                                                                 download and share the most music also buy substantially
                                                                                 more of it.
              2012                                                               Though DVD sales continue to dominate, rent and borrow
              Spotify grows to
              more than 15m active                                               services are on the rise. Services like Rent the Runway,
              users, of which 4m                                                 Lending Luxury and others have extended this model to
              are paid subscribers                                               the fashion industry, and ValoBox and Total Boox are taking
                                                                                 it into publishing. And of course, services like AirBnB,
                                                                                 9flats, Getaround and Lyft are making flat-sharing and car-
                                                                                 sharing mainstream. New entrant Jetsetter is helping to
                                       2012                                      turn the concept of a luxury second home or family holiday
                                       AirBnB launches Wish                      on its head. These current shifts show how new forms of
                                       Lists to let users
                                       curate their
                                                                                 ownership are beginning to exert their influence on
                                       aspirations                               consumer behaviour.
                                                                                 
      Slide 24 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#6 ACCESS IS THE NEW OWNERSHIP What does it mean to own something in the digital age?

                                                                                        Users will continue to see value in portability. As




                                                                     WHAT’S NEXT 2013
                                                                                        they possess more devices with which to consume
                         2010                                                           content, they increasingly expect to be able to
                         Bag Borrow or Steal
                                                                                        consume that content whenever and however they
                         combines rental with
                         private sales of                                               want to.
                         designer luxury                                                The rise of subscription and streaming services
                         accessories
                                                                                        has also spawned the beginnings of a 'pay as you
                                                                                        go' mentality among content consumers.
2012                                                                                    Innovative new services will see content owners
Microsoft files a                                                                       generate increased revenue based on usage. For
patent for Kinect to
                                                                                        example, Microsoft’s Kinect technology could be
count the people in
a room                                                                                  used to charge for movies based on the number of
                                                                                        people in the room.
                                                                                        Simultaneously, the growing trend of clothing and
                                                                                        accessory rental, resale and swap platforms will
                                                                                        see its peer-to-peer and professional aspects grow
                                                                                        rapidly, as people band together to enable
                                                                                        themselves to pay for what they want to wear, for
                                                                                        only as long as they want to wear it.
                                              2012                                      
                                              Total Boox announces
                                              pay-for-read model
                                              for books



                  2012
                  Several car sharing
                  services in Europe
                  are growing fast,
                  and Whipcar is
                  about to close a new
                  round of funding


       Slide 25 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#6 ACCESS IS THE NEW OWNERSHIP What does it mean to own something in the digital age?

                                                                         Are you in the selling or the access business? Companies




                                                        FJORD SUGGESTS
                                                                         could design clear access models, like rental, trading, and
                                                                         leasing, and make ownership a standard “upgrade”
                                                                         across categories.
                                                                         What areas of peer-to-peer exchange could you have
                                                                         permission to mediate, facilitate or add value to?
                                                                         Include a variety of status-boosting elements in ‘access’
                                                                         services. For example one-click experience capture for
                                                                         outdoors adventurers, easy experience sharing through
                                                                         social media networks, and ‘insight’ sharing for those
                                                                         who prefer to project their intellectual adventures.
                                                                         Create an “API for commerce” by atomizing your
                                                                         catalogue or offering. This could allow third parties to
                                                                         distribute your content.
                                                                         There are lots of opportunities for new business models
                                                                         in publishing. For example, if a customer buys a physical
                                                                         book, why shouldn't they be able to take a few chapters
                                                                         along on a smartphone or tablet when they travel?




     Slide 26 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#7
                                       In recent years we’ve seen a shift away from learning as
                                       something that only happens through pairing teachers with
                                       students in traditional classrooms. Innovations such as learning
                                       via video instruction, or online courses from prestigious
                                       universities, are now available anytime and anywhere to anyone

LEARNING                               with an Internet connection.
                                       The next stage of transformation is already taking shape. Fjord

GETS                                   believes this will involve highly personalised and adaptive
                                       learning materials. In addition, we’ll see the methods of delivery
                                       move from one-to-many to many-to-one.
PERSONAL                               Ultimately, this kind of real-time adaptive learning support will
                                       transition into the broader business context. Some of the radical
How being online is transforming
                                       changes we’ve seen in education and learning are set to become
the way people learn
                                       part of our working lives.

Slide 27 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#7 LEARNING GETS PERSONAL How being online is transforming the way people learn

                                                                                  Most classrooms are still like the classrooms of 100 years




                                                               WHAT’S NEXT 2013
                                                                      THE PAST
                      2010                                                        ago: a single teacher teaching many students with
                      The Aspen Institute in                                      classroom props and textbooks. Learning involves reading
                      conjunction with the                                        as well as a lot of memorisation and practice sheets.
                      Knight commission
                      publishes Digital and
                                                                                  While many schools gradually allow students to use online
                      Media Literacy: A Plan                                      tools, emphasis continues to be placed on memorisation
                      of Action                                                   of facts. Some students find this easy; others are
                                                                                  sometimes left behind. Students with different learning
                                                                                  styles are difficult for instructors to address.
                                                                                  The Khan Academy is a non-profit organisation that has




                                                                       THE NOW
2011                                                                              been hugely successful with its website, supplying a free
Open University                                                                   online collection of more than 3,600 micro lectures via
reports over 50,000
overseas students                                                                 video tutorials. Today there are many examples of this on
                                                                                  demand approach to learning.
                                                                                  Massive open online courses (MOOCs) that combine
                                                                                  education, entertainment, and social networking are
                                                                                  growing at an amazing pace. Universities around the world
                                                                                  are opening their virtual doors to remote learning, and
                                                                                  eventually online certificates may translate into some form
               2012                                                               of university credits.
               Khan Academy has                                                   The Open University currently has over 250,000 students,
               delivered over 200                                                 more than 50,000 of which are overseas. McGraw-Hill and
               million lessons
                                                                                  Coursera have launched huge initiatives to deliver fully
                                                                                  digital course materials to tablet devices.
                                                                                  Many experts predict these changes will lead to the
                                       2012                                       disappearance of textbooks within the coming decade.
                                       McGraw-Hill reports a                      
                                       20+% increase in both
                                       attendance and
                                       retention with its
                                       Connect® programme

       Slide 28 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#7 LEARNING GETS PERSONAL How being online is transforming the way people learn

                                                                           As the digital model continues to evolve, Fjord




                                                        WHAT’S NEXT 2013
                                                                           anticipates that students will have access to an ever-
                        2012                                               broadening array of instructors, enabling them to
                        Harvard University and                             personalise their learning and transforming the one to
                        the Massachusetts                                  many model of teaching forever.
                        Institute of Technology
                        found EdX                                          MOOCs without person-to-person experiences that
                                                                           happen on campus will raise questions about the more
                                                                           social aspects of higher education, such as the process
                                                                           of collaborative learning, and individualized support.
2012                                                                       At the same time, data mining on student learning
Coursera reaches                                                           patterns enabling real-time adaptive curricula suited to
more than 1.7 million                                                      individual learning styles and interests will become
— growing “faster                                                          mainstream.
than Facebook”
                                                                           The definition of digital literacy will expand from
                                                                           merely conducting effective searches and evaluating
                                                                           the results, to include reading and making meaning
                                                                           from individual data and new forms of writing or
               2012                                                        composition with mixed media.
               Human Face of Big                                           
               Data is published as a
               global snapshot of the
               world's transformation
               through data.




       Slide 29 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#7 LEARNING GETS PERSONAL How being online is transforming the way people learn

                                                                         Big opportunities are emerging to deliver highly




                                                        FJORD SUGGESTS
                                                                         personalised instructional material to students.
                                                                         Recommendation engines will suggest individualized
                                                                         pathways for learning from the web.
                                                                         As the new learning technologies reach scale, all
                                                                         education service touchpoints will need to be
                                                                         reimagined as a part of the overall service delivery.
                                                                         Creating a productive physical, digital, and social
                                                                         environment will become a critical differentiator for
                                                                         prestigious institutions entering the space.
                                                                         Businesses can adopt adaptive learning practices in
                                                                         the workplace, making the work done by individuals a
                                                                         part of their personal equity and that of the
                                                                         organisation. Making this happen will require improved
                                                                         collaboration tools.




     Slide 30 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#8
YOU TALKING                                  In many ways, it’s logical that the next frontier for
                                             interface disruption should be the voice.
                                             But prodding and poking objects is something
TO ME?                                       we’ve always done, and talking to thin air has
                                             always been a sure sign of a crazy person. Voice
 Exploring new challenges in human-machine   services are still not taking off as rapidly as they
 communication                               should.
                                             What will it take to make voice interaction
                                             compelling enough to make people want to
                                             integrate it into their daily lives?

Slide 31 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#8 YOU TALKING TO ME? Exploring new challenges in human-machine communication

                                                                                          Companies have been exploring voice input for




                                                                     WHAT’S NEXT 2013
                                                                            THE PAST
                                                                                          decades—from the sultry Wildfire virtual secretary to
                                                                                          Apple’s Knowledge Navigator, the promise of voice
                                                                                          control has long overshadowed its reality. Over the
                     1990                                                                 past five years, touchscreen and mobile interactions
                     Virtuosity Wildfire                                                  have become the norm, leading to hugely heightened
                     virtual assistant
                                                                                          expectations around responsiveness and instant
                                                                                          gratification.
                                                                                          
                                                                                        Apple and Google are learning through their




                                                             THE NOW
                                                                                        experiments. Siri and Google Voice Search are battling it
2007                                                                                    out in the smartphone marketplace, with Siri positioned
iPhone introduces
mass market touch
                                                                                        as a helpful assistant with amusing faux-human traits,
interaction                                                                             and Google Voice Search positioned as a lightning fast
                                                                                        and somewhat geekier expert search-bot. The problem
                                                                                        is that without a solid understanding of the immediate
                                                                                        context and intent of the user, today’s voice services still
                                                                                        come across as either not contextually aware enough –
                                                                                        or simply not intelligent enough in the case of Siri.
                                                                                        Google Now is a contextual dashboard that displays
                                                                                        just-in time relevant information to you based on your
                                                                                        activities across your Google services or accessible
               2010                                                                     information on your device, such as your calendar. Some
               Apple launches Siri
                                                                                        users consistently report that context awareness and
                                                                                        hyper personalisation without explicit permission can
                                                                                        feel creepy.
                                                                                        
                                                                                        
                                       2011
                                       Google Voice Search
                                       launches

       Slide 32 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#8 YOU TALKING TO ME? Exploring new challenges in human-machine communication

                                                                                           The future will hold not only great voice




                                                                        WHAT’S NEXT 2013
                                                                                           recognition and interpretation, but as more people
                                                                                           use these systems they will have more data, and
                                                                                           thus be able to more effectively anticipate context
                         2012                                                              and intent.
                         Chevrolet adds Siri to
                         in-car systems
                                                                                           We’ll begin to see new services that listen in the
                                                                                           background with explicit permission and deliver
                                                                                           genie-like wishes for everything - from a casually
                                                                                           mentioned book to the address for a San
                                                                                           Francisco restaurant that reminds us of a loved
2012                                                                                       one in London - and prompts accordingly for
Nuance announces
Nina™ personal                                                                             orders or reservations.
assistant with open                                                                        As systems gain their users’ trust, the next level of
SDK
                                                                                           intelligence could come by integrating with the
                                                                                           data from the apps that reside on an individual’s
                                                                                           device.
                                                                                           2013 will see voice services popping up more
                                                                                           prominently in more contexts—transportation,
                                              2012                                         healthcare, financial services and education. Voice
                                              Haiku for iPhone                             integration will become a must-have for
                                              enables medical                              smartphone and tablet applications, and
                                              professionals to voice-
                                              input health data
                                                                                           voiceprints will emerge as a new kind of personal
                                                                                           signature.
                                                                                           This is a future where the service that wins will be
                                                                                           the one that appears to be the most personal,
                                                                                           responds the most quickly and appropriately, and
                 2013                                                                      simply ‘feels’ the most human.
                 Microsoft to add
                 Tellme Natural User                                                       
                 Interface to its family
                 of products


       Slide 33 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#8 YOU TALKING TO ME? Exploring new challenges in human-machine communication

                                                                        A large part of online customer self-service activities




                                                       FJORD SUGGESTS
                                                                        will be done with the help of virtual assistants soon.
                                                                        No business can afford to ignore the voice dimension
                                                                        for much longer. Designing for voice interactions is a
                                                                        key component of service design, starting now.
                                                                        There is a huge opportunity to create value by voice-
                                                                        enabling the day-to-day tasks of people who benefit
                                                                        from being hands-free.
                                                                        While gestural interfaces may come in time, these are
                                                                        more difficult to implement. Voice interactions are far
                                                                        more natural, particularly as many mobile devices are
                                                                        already voice-dominated channels for their users.




     Slide 34 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#9
THE
                                       The speed of movement to mobile has amazed everyone. But it
                                       has not been matched by the speed with which most
                                       organisations are able to monetize it.
                                       We’ve gone from analogue dollars to digital dimes and now to
                                       mobile cents. This is creating a commercial gulf that is going to
                                       put pressure on cash and funding for many new mobile ventures,
MOBILE                                 simply because the average revenue per user has a clear
                                       tendency to drop when a product is wholly or primarily mobile.

GAP
                                       Into this volatile mix we can now add tablets and 4G in many
                                       markets next year. The search is on for business models and
                                       enablers, and it’s likely some will come from the developing
Business plays catch-up with           world.
adoption


Slide 35 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#9 THE MOBILE GAP           Business plays catch-up with adoption


                                                                                    As the web went mainstream in the 1990s, some




                                                                WHAT’S NEXT 2013
                                                                       THE PAST
                                                                                    commercial success stories emerged quickly
                                                                                    (Amazon, eBay) and some evolved a little later (such
                                                                                    as Google).
                     PRE-2005                                                       When mobile data emerged, it was seen as a subset
                                                                                    of the connected desktop. But as smartphones have
                     WAP info services
                                                                                    developed, we have shifted to an increasingly mobile-
                                                                                    first perspective and the minimal engagement of the
                                                                                    early WAP services seems like ancient history.
2010                                                                                
Eric Schmidt                                                                       With rising global smartphone adoption, many




                                                                        THE NOW
announces Google's                                                                  
                                                                                   businesses are looking at mobile as the primary channel
Mobile First
                                                                                   for customer acquisition and relationship building, with
strategy at MWC
2010                                                                               desktop services as secondary. However, in the
                                                                                   developed world, Fjord believes that many of us still
                                                                                   think of these mobile services as extensions of the
                                                                                   desktop service. This limits us to the business models
                                                                                   that already exist. Some iconic mobile start-ups like
                                                                                   Foursquare, Twitter and Instagram still do not have a
                                                                                   viable business model. Facebook has famously seen a
                                                                                   decline in value due to its perceived inability to get to
              2012                       2012                                      grips with mobile. Zynga’s average revenue per mobile
              PayPal transactions        Facebook stock loses
              up 195% on Cyber           over 30% of its IPO
                                                                                   user is only a fifth of a desktop user’s. And tablets are
              Monday 2012                value in 6 months                         mixing things up further. By the end of 2013, one in four
                                                                                   US adults will own a tablet – it took the mobile phone 16
                                                                                   years to reach that. Some companies are getting it right.
                                                                                   For example, PayPal will process $12bn in mobile
                                         2012                                      transactions in 2012. Some of the most successful
                                         Citibank puts iPad                        players in mobile are banks or transaction-oriented
                                         service at the heart                      players, who have reported that mobile users are among
                                         of its advertising                        their most profitable customers.
                                         story

      Slide 36 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
#9 THE MOBILE GAP           Business plays catch-up with adoption



                                                                                       In 2013 we are likely to see an intense focus on




                                                                    WHAT’S NEXT 2013
                                                                                       how to make mobile devices pay for most service
                                                                                       companies. Wallet initiatives will be at the centre
                        2013                                                           of this, but expect also innovation in mobile
                        Hardware innovation                                            discovery both from the major platform owners
                        slows: new phones fail                                         (Apple Store and Google Play) and independents
                        to excite
                                                                                       like Flurry.
                                                                                       We will see an increase in entirely new services
                                                                                       and business models driven by mobile-first or
                                                                                       mobile-only engagement.
2013
Households in US                                                                       At the same time, developing countries (notably
and Europe reach                                                                       Kenya, Brazil and India) have seen massive
an average of 7+                                                                       innovation in business models that leverage mobile
connected devices
                                                                                       technology. 50% of Kenya's GDP moves through
                                                                                       mobile, and most Africans experience the Internet
                                                                                       first on a mobile phone. In Kenya, Sudan and
                                                                                       Gabon, more than half of adults use mobile money.
                                                                                       

                                             2013
                                             Opera acquired for
                                             HTML 5 skills by OTT
                                             giant




                2013
                Mobile TV companion
                apps go mainstream
                (GetGlue, Zeebox),
                revenues uncertain


      Slide 37 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
Fjord trends 2013
Fjord trends 2013
Fjord trends 2013
Fjord trends 2013
Fjord trends 2013
Fjord trends 2013
Fjord trends 2013

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Fjord trends 2013

  • 1. Thank you. 2013 Trends What will the key changes be in business and design during 2013, and what should you do about it? Slide 1 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 2. AN INTRODUCTION At Fjord we work across multiple domains that are As usual, the trends point at some recurring going through major transitions – and the work themes: for 2013 the following weave their way in always involves an element of “new.” A new and out of our forecasts: platform or technology, a new business That mobile is still changing everything – if proposition, or new target users. We work at the anything faster, and now including new ways of front edge of mainstream, where innovation meets working. mass-market appeal. The constant presence of That personalisation will be a hot topic for success. “new” in our work feeds our curiosity, and makes That data and the success of new systems are exploration a necessity. tightly bound together. So we constantly think about what tomorrow will bring. At the end of the year we ask teams at And as ever – for truly great service design - people come first. Fjord to offer their predictions on the major trends that will impact businesses and society in the year We hope you find our 2013 trends interesting, to come. We know that trends can both inspire provocative, inspiring, and importantly, actionable. and worry those responsible for shaping the next If you want to delve deeper into our thoughts on wave of products and services. So we've also tried what you should be doing to stay ahead of the to give some clear advice that will help both curve, please reach out for a customized designers and business leaders understand how to presentation by Fjord on the trends that will have interpret the opportunities that lie ahead. the most impact on your business. Slide 2 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 3. #1 PEOPLE ARE The single biggest source of digital disruption over the past decade has been people – the users of technology themselves. RUINING Access to technology has made it possible for anyone with an idea, a vision and determination to EVERYTHING build a service that circumvents traditional businesses. And the platforms that people use to trade with for traditional businesses one another are far richer than any single business could build. Slide 3 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 4. #1 PEOPLE ARE RUINING EVERYTHING for traditional businesses This trend began with user-generated content. The first WHAT’S NEXT 2013 THE PAST wave was well underway by 2000 with Napster and 2007 Blogger. YouTube’s Now, 80% or more of the content consumed online is bandwidth equaled that of user-generated. This has caused massive disruption the entire internet across all the content creation and publishing industries, in 2001 from broadcasters to newspapers to the music industry. But the emergence of new business models that sit between traditional ownership and illegal exchange (see our trend, ‘Access is the New Ownership’) suggests that 2011 the area is as much an under-exploited opportunity for AirBnB saw 500% businesses as a potential threat to their livelihood. growth in nights booked 2011. The past few years have seen a dramatic upswing in THE NOW peer-to-peer services, which has begun to disrupt several industry verticals including travel and transportation. Services like AirBnB, Getaround and Lyft have understandably caused much alarm amongst traditional businesses, which has contributed to political action in 2012 some areas and raised the possibility of regulation. Lyft, Sidecar Uber were each fined Peer-to-peer funding platforms like Kickstarter and $20K by the CPUC Indiegogo have also begun to disrupt the way that for alleged public businesses are created and grown, bypassing the safety violations traditional investment framework. While these platforms are facing their own challenges, Kickstarter's funding success rate is far higher than many industry experts 2012 predicted, at around 45% on average and as high as 70% Crowdfunding is in the top category. expected to reach $500 million in 2012, up from $33 million in 2010. Slide 4 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 5. #1 PEOPLE ARE RUINING EVERYTHING for traditional businesses Peer-to-peer services will continue to grow, in areas of WHAT’S NEXT 2013 finance and personal services as well as the segments in 2012 which they are already substantial players. Traditional Etsy’s sales have businesses will continue to try to arrest this growth grown around 69% through legislative or political action, but the startup Year-on-Year community has come to see these kinds of challenges as 2010-11 and 2011-12. a badge of honour. This disruption will be joined by a third wave, in the area of peer-to-peer manufacturing and distribution. This wave 2013 began long ago with resale and exchange platforms like Staples will launch Easy3D, a 3D printing Ebay and Freecycle, but it has been transformed through service available to all craft-focused peer-to-peer platform Etsy. its customers in the Looking further, Fjord anticipates this peer-to-peer US. manufacturing revolution to crest as 3D printing becomes accessible to everyone. We are already seeing movement in the creation and publication of peer-to-peer 3D printing plans: although fraught with legal difficulty, we 2013 expect this movement to gather momentum in 2013. Car sharing is rapidly growing in the UK and EU, with Whipcar about to close a round of funding 2013 2012 Makerbot’s TaskRabbit Replica 2 will be announces available from marketing January 2013 for partnership with less than £1800. Gap in December Slide 5 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 6. #1 PEOPLE ARE RUINING EVERYTHING for traditional businesses If you can't beat 'em, join 'em: shutting down peer-to- FJORD SUGGESTS peer services through legislative action is unlikely to be productive in the mid-term. Instead, traditional businesses will need to find new ways to remain competitive. Explore new business models that bring traditional and P2P players together through partnership or acquisition, extending the traditional business' value and the peer- to-peer service's reach. Well-established brands can facilitate peer-to-peer engagement in relevant areas to extend their brand value and customer relationships. Old-fashioned and controlled branding and marketing is not effective anymore. Upgrade your brand to ensure interactivity and digital are in the core brand DNA, encouraging – not fighting – feedback and peer-to-peer engagement. Slide 6 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 7. #2 I BELONG The past year has seen a massive rise in the number of organisations gathering personal data from their users. There’s also been a growth in user awareness of data collection issues, TO ME mainly in Europe rather than the US. As users become more aware of what can be done with their The personal data battlefield information, they are beginning to demand access, and real value, in return for their data. The data exists in two forms: •  Aggregate information, in which anything that identifies the individual is stripped out, enabling businesses to show broader trends and comparisons. •  Individual information, which is tied to the specific person. Slide 7 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 8. #2 I BELONG TO ME The personal data battlefield Online retailers and services like Amazon, Google and 2007 THE PAST Facebook have been gathering user behavioural data for Netflix launches the years. Aggregated data drives recommendations engines, Progress Prize, $1,000,000 to anyone and personal data drives targeted marketing and who can improve their advertising. recommendation engine. The argument around use of personal data intensified during THE NOW 2012. Notable examples include the Facebook class action launched by Austrian law student Max Schrems, the pending EU legislation it has influenced, the argument between 2010 advertisers, service providers and users around recognising Nike+ GPS app Do Not Track requests, and the ongoing discomfort amongst launches, enabling users - some surveys have indicated that users even believe runners to track their data on iOS. that advertisers on Google's platform know their home address. In service terms, we have seen that misuse of information has immediate and severe impact on relationships - when Facebook began transparently posting all the articles we read through their apps, usage of these publication apps dropped like a stone almost overnight. The fact that there are so many alternatives available for 2011 virtually any service means that users are increasingly walking Citibank launches away from experiences that they find creepy or iPad app with data uncomfortable, taking their business elsewhere. enhancements. Finally, targeted advertising is less effective than true advocacy in building profitable relationships. Advocates spread the word to their peer networks, where it is far more 2012 likely to be heard than from the brand or business itself. Scandinavian operator Three makes the mobile bill visual and transparent Slide 8 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 9. #2 I BELONG TO ME The personal data battlefield EU legislation in 2013 will have an impact. Whether its rulings will WHAT’S NEXT 2013 be immediately enforced is a legitimate question, but affected 2012 businesses certainly need to start thinking about a course of State Farm Ford action immediately. team up to gather At the very least, 2013 will see dramatic growth in user actuarial data direct awareness around their data, and potentially also a series of from the vehicle. tools aimed at helping normal people manage and control who sees their data, when and how. As the proliferation of service players continues, particularly as we see more and more traction for over-the-top players in verticals like personal finance, striking the right balance between 2013 data gathered and value delivered will become increasingly Ubuntu, Mozilla, critical to the success of many large businesses, notably banks Tizen OS released. and insurance companies. Fjord also expects the wave of data visualisation to continue to grow, driving value and building relationships between individuals and those who help them to extract value from their own behaviours. Finally, three new mobile operating systems will arrive in 2013, and we expect at least some of these to include some level of 2013 personal data management as part of their software. EU Legislation will define privacy terms. 2013 Services like ReclaimPrivacy, Untangle, Unroll.me begin to gather steam. Slide 9 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 10. #2 I BELONG TO ME The personal data battlefield Make the most of aggregate data. It can go a long way FJORD SUGGESTS to improve your product and customer service without demanding hyper-personal information. Work to turn your customers’ data into actionable insights – for them. Transparency builds trust and lasting relationships. Be the one who makes sense of Big Data for the little guy. Design for data re-use; Allow data to be exported and aggregated, not stuck in proprietary silos. Slide 10 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 11. #3 DAWN We’ll soon start to see connected devices infiltrating more areas of our lives – but this could lead to information overload for some of us. OF THE As we are confronted with more data visualisations about our lives, homes, jobs or health, we are likely to develop PERSONAL what's been called 'chart fatigue', making it difficult to extract meaning from data that should be valuable to us. This will set the scene for what Fjord calls ‘Living Services’ ECOSYSTEM – the point at which individual 'smart' objects interconnect to form a support network for their owner. This is when a Connected objects start to take their place - set of connected objects becomes greater than the sum of right by your side its parts: your ‘personal ecosystem’. Slide 11 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 12. #3 DAWN OF THE PERSONAL ECOSYSTEM Connected objects start to take their place – right by your side In the early days of smartphones, the range of available WHAT’S NEXT 2013 THE PAST services was extremely limited, often based on the capabilities of the device, or on the restrictions of the 2008 mobile service provider. i0S App Store But since the concept of an app store was taken into the Android Market mainstream, users have increasingly been building their launch own personal app ecosystems made up of whatever they personally believe is useful and important. While Apple keeps a tight rein on what's allowed in its App Store, users in general have far more control over 2011 their software than ever before. i0S App Store reaches 500K The personal ecosystem, developed by the app store apps THE NOW mobile experience, is migrating into the physical world. The past 18 months have seen the beginnings of mass- market adoption for a select few connected objects, driven by the services that make them meaningful. Nike Fuelband and Jawbone Up are two examples from the wellness sector, while Nest is a connected home example. Looking at Kickstarter, the next 12 months should see an 2011-2012 explosion of connected and smart objects spanning a huge Jawbone Up, Nike+ Fuelband launch range of technologies and applications. At the same time, some telcos are beginning to measure their revenue in terms of account (ARPA) rather than by device or by single user (ARPU). This means they're taking steps to combine their views of customer behaviour across devices and contexts, building a picture that could be used 2012 to create a business and technical infrastructure to support Verizon launches Living Services. “Share Everything” Slide 12 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 13. #3 DAWN OF THE PERSONAL ECOSYSTEM Connected objects start to take their place – right by your side As more and more objects come onto the market, over- WHAT’S NEXT 2013 the-top data services will begin to form around them to drive increased value. 2011 The earliest of these are likely to be wellness-driven GreenGoose launches (like Tictrac), or focussed on finance. In the near term, the first consumer- however, individual users will still have to engage with centric sensor kit multiple services and touchpoints to get the value of their things. There will also be a rise in single-purpose objects that foster intimate relationships between people: one example is the Good Night Lamp, which makes its debut at CES in 2013. 2012 We are beginning to see a lot of innovation come from Tictrac enters beta launch smaller, crowdfunded players and component companies. We may also start to see plug-in hardware that will extend the lifespan of a handset in the next two years – BTLE technology means that a sensor can run for a year on a single battery, making these small devices far more viable than ever before. The 'battle for the wrist' will hit the mainstream in earnest in 2013, with a variety of approaches coming to 2011 market focused on everything from health and wellness Macaw launches on to information and entertainment. iOS Android 2012 ToyTalk (founded by ex-Pixar employees) 2013 secures $11.5M in Good Night Lamp funding to launch at CES Slide 13 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 14. #3 DAWN OF THE PERSONAL ECOSYSTEM Connected objects start to take their place – right by your side Designers need to increasingly focus on designing for FJORD SUGGESTS the glance. Service-based businesses can help users tie together elements of their object ecosystem to extract further value. Interactions should be segmented into things that are best done and seen on small dedicated devices, and things best done on the smartphone that they inevitably will connect to. Objects that fit naturally into people’s lives will be the big winners in this wave, if they can be simple and appealing while adapting to users’ habits and priorities. Slide 14 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 15. #4 KEEP IT As digital progress marches on, so does complexity. Ever-increasing volumes of data constantly threaten SIMPLE the efforts of service designers to create elegant, focused, and simple solutions. But at the same time, more organisations are finding STUPID that a focus on simplicity can have a transformative effect on services and businesses alike. Good old-fashioned K.I.S.S. principles As Albert Einstein said: “Everything should be made make a comeback as simple as possible. But not simpler.” Slide 15 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 16. #4 KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID Good old-fashioned K.I.S.S. principles make a comeback Simplicity has a long track record of success. Ikea's WHAT’S NEXT 2013 THE PAST bare-bones proposition of modern, simple products at affordable prices has made it one of the world's leading retailers. Zipcar's straightforward and flexible offer led PRE-2000 to extremely quick adoption of an entirely new Ikea, Netscape, transport proposition. Google In the digital world Skype was able to gain huge global market share with an unprecedented proposition because they made the service incredibly easy to 2003 understand. And every web browser still shows its basis Skype is founded. in Netscape's simple browser controls, while Google Since, it has become search disrupted the search-and-portal world with its the largest international voice ultra-minimalism. carrier. Other examples include Amazon’s One-click shopping, and the Apple Touch iOS, which revolutionised mainstream mobile interaction by taking it from indirect to direct response. Some users have started to complain that they feel THE NOW overwhelmed by the omnipresent digital world. 2010 ‘Slow Living’ and ‘Slow Food’ were just two examples of Slow Living lifestyle the backlash against our high-velocity digital lifestyle. and philosophy Now we are also seeing that single-purpose apps and brand founded services are gaining ground, feeding a desire for simplification. Examples include how Square created a $3 billion 2010 company in under three years through simplification of Square launches in January. Less than 3 the bureaucratic process of becoming a credit-card years later, the merchant. Or how Bank Simple has changed the company is valued conversation in the banking sector. at $3 billion. Slide 16 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 17. #4 KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID Good old-fashioned K.I.S.S. principles make a comeback As personal ecosystems grow, so does the WHAT’S NEXT 2013 challenge. We will need to make meaning of more 2012 data from more sensors, public, private and Misfit Shine, the quarter-sized corporate, and the simplest solutions will continue personal activity to win. tracker, announced to critical acclaim. Leaders in simplification will continue to disrupt and transform. As choice and options multiply, solutions and companies that can guide users through the mess will have an opportunity to become trusted advisors. 2012 Dropbox grows to over 100 million users worldwide 2012 PayPal announces reorganisation around the principle of Simplicity Slide 17 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 18. #4 KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID Good old-fashioned K.I.S.S. principles make a comeback Focus on what can be removed rather than what could FJORD SUGGESTS be added. Make sure every single feature, element, and interface drives real value for the user. Be ruthless about prioritization. Bravely go to the pain threshold that separates “extremely simple” from “plain dumb”. Use mobile as a primary tool to drive simplicity across products and services. Apply the principles of simplicity internally: how could your teams, your structure, be leaner and more effective? Take action to simplify internal communication and ways of working, and this will enable you to reflect that simplicity outward as well. Slide 18 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 19. #5 REVOLUTION Personalisation is nothing new in the digital world, but comparatively few shopping services actually feel close to the individual. Fjord expects this to change in 2013, as the online and offline retail environments continue to merge, creating a more holistic and immersive customer experience. IN RETAIL Mobile payments have definitely been disruptive in 2012, with a huge rise in the number of transactions made on mobile - but the changes we’ll see next are The Online/Offline distinction disappears about far more than just mobile payments. Slide 19 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 20. #5 REVOLUTION IN RETAIL The Online/Offline distinction disappears Personal service was the promise of the independent WHAT’S NEXT 2013 THE PAST local shop for the better part of the 20th century. Even now, consumers feel deep loyalty to the sellers who recognise them, get to know them, and help them PRE-2000 discover the best deals on suitable merchandise. Local shops, Amazon, We’ve seen these interactions mirrored in the digital Netflix world with Amazon's and Netflix's highly-regarded recommendation engines. Suggestions for shopping have become the norm in the online world. 2010 As the Internet went mainstream, peer-to-peer reviews also began to inform shopping, while price-comparison RedLaser is engines play to our desire to get the best deal. Guardian's Consumer App of the Week A statistic to strike fear into the heart of any retailer: half THE NOW of US smartphone users have used their devices in-store, and more than half of those have gone on to abandon their in-store purchase. For smartphone users, the distinction between online and in-store shopping has all but disappeared. 2010 The mobile payment disruption we saw in 2012 has led to Starbucks announces the additional side effect of shared retail spaces in some partnership with European cities, giving independent merchants Square unprecedented access to the purchasing public. Apple has reinvented the in-store experience, transforming it from traditional shop to showroom by eliminating the need to queue at a till. Now that geofencing technology has opened the door to 2012 completely frictionless payment and location and ambient Apple launches fully data make it possible to hyper-tailor services, there is a DIY shopping in US big field of opportunity and risk. Slide 20 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 21. #5 REVOLUTION IN RETAIL The Online/Offline distinction disappears Fjord believes the key to retail success lies in creating WHAT’S NEXT 2013 experiences that make customers feel better. A 2012 shopping experience that feels smarter or easier can be EU chain DM begins more valuable for many customers than simply getting offering customers e- the best deal. receipts for in-store purchases Key factors that ensure success are increasingly going to be based on recognition, recommendation, follow- through, and support. The penetration achieved by new mobile payment systems, as well as the ready availability of mobile 2012 devices, will kickstart a revolution in in-store customer CA tests Facebook Like service. Shop staff will be equipped with tablets or hangers in Sao smartphones to deliver improved individual service. Paolo Opt-in location based services will help customers find precisely what they're looking for, when they're looking to buy, and will enable them to pay on the spot without queuing. 2013 will see the introduction of frictionless payment in more markets around the world, with security and shrinkage challenges arising from this 2012 technology. Neiman Marcus to Virtual shops will take hold in the physical world, with equip sales staff with smartphones grocery aisles on train platforms and social network ratings on hangers. We will also see QR codes and other buying methods in more shop windows and restaurants, opening entirely new revenue streams for some while extending shopping hours for others. 2013 These changes will see customers move closer to Tesco to launch effectively managing their shopping lives, in similar ways virtual grocery at to how recent technology shifts have given them new Gatwick Airport powers over their social lives. Slide 21 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 22. #5 REVOLUTION IN RETAIL The Online/Offline distinction disappears Design commerce services that make use of smartphone FJORD SUGGESTS sensors and contextual data – camera, gyroscope, time of day and location. Design innovative and simple solutions for small merchants. This is a big group of merchants, yet they are not digitally savvy at all. Inventory management, customer relationships, loyalty solutions, digital storefronts – these can be life-changing services for small merchants. Businesses that team up with local independent merchants and makers (both online and offline) can drive value within the local economy. Providing a 'memory' of a customer’s past purchases can help small and large vendors alike develop the kinds of relationships only small boutiques traditionally have, with face-to-face recommendations that are more effective than digital ones. Re-imagine the boring things and make them engaging. As PayPal and Square have shown, even something as painful as paying can be pretty cool! Slide 22 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 23. #6 ACCESS We’ve seen seismic shifts in the area of digital distribution of music, movies and media in every form. Now, as individuals increasingly consume media across devices, they expect their purchases to be available on multiple platforms, no matter what. IS THE NEW Likewise, in the past we used to project our status and success through the things we own – the car in the driveway, the holiday home, our media collections. But OWNERSHIP increasingly status is now projected through our experiences and pursuits, and consequently access and flexibility – rather than traditional ownership – are What does it mean to own something in the digital age? growing central to what we crave. Slide 23 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 24. #6 ACCESS IS THE NEW OWNERSHIP What does it mean to own something in the digital age? Music was the first industry to feel the bite of P2P WHAT’S NEXT 2013 THE PAST sharing from Napster onwards. Next came audio- visual content (TV and Film), which has been the 2011 topic of much legal action over the past few years. Megaupload, Megavideo Timesharing property used to be seen as a slightly RapidShare receive downmarket way for the less wealthy to access over 21 billion visits/yr property in desirable areas. In Europe and a few American cities, short-term holiday lettings began in the early 00s but didn't begin to catch on until much later. 2011 Spotify has proved that consumers are willing to pay to THE NOW Hulu sees 60% growth from 2010, rent music if they feel they're getting a valuable service. with 1.4m paid But this is a totally different model to the traditional CD subscribers distribution business, and record labels are still struggling to get to grips with it. Yet despite the fears of music industry executives, statistical evidence continues to show that people who download and share the most music also buy substantially more of it. 2012 Though DVD sales continue to dominate, rent and borrow Spotify grows to more than 15m active services are on the rise. Services like Rent the Runway, users, of which 4m Lending Luxury and others have extended this model to are paid subscribers the fashion industry, and ValoBox and Total Boox are taking it into publishing. And of course, services like AirBnB, 9flats, Getaround and Lyft are making flat-sharing and car- sharing mainstream. New entrant Jetsetter is helping to 2012 turn the concept of a luxury second home or family holiday AirBnB launches Wish on its head. These current shifts show how new forms of Lists to let users curate their ownership are beginning to exert their influence on aspirations consumer behaviour. Slide 24 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 25. #6 ACCESS IS THE NEW OWNERSHIP What does it mean to own something in the digital age? Users will continue to see value in portability. As WHAT’S NEXT 2013 they possess more devices with which to consume 2010 content, they increasingly expect to be able to Bag Borrow or Steal consume that content whenever and however they combines rental with private sales of want to. designer luxury The rise of subscription and streaming services accessories has also spawned the beginnings of a 'pay as you go' mentality among content consumers. 2012 Innovative new services will see content owners Microsoft files a generate increased revenue based on usage. For patent for Kinect to example, Microsoft’s Kinect technology could be count the people in a room used to charge for movies based on the number of people in the room. Simultaneously, the growing trend of clothing and accessory rental, resale and swap platforms will see its peer-to-peer and professional aspects grow rapidly, as people band together to enable themselves to pay for what they want to wear, for only as long as they want to wear it. 2012 Total Boox announces pay-for-read model for books 2012 Several car sharing services in Europe are growing fast, and Whipcar is about to close a new round of funding Slide 25 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 26. #6 ACCESS IS THE NEW OWNERSHIP What does it mean to own something in the digital age? Are you in the selling or the access business? Companies FJORD SUGGESTS could design clear access models, like rental, trading, and leasing, and make ownership a standard “upgrade” across categories. What areas of peer-to-peer exchange could you have permission to mediate, facilitate or add value to? Include a variety of status-boosting elements in ‘access’ services. For example one-click experience capture for outdoors adventurers, easy experience sharing through social media networks, and ‘insight’ sharing for those who prefer to project their intellectual adventures. Create an “API for commerce” by atomizing your catalogue or offering. This could allow third parties to distribute your content. There are lots of opportunities for new business models in publishing. For example, if a customer buys a physical book, why shouldn't they be able to take a few chapters along on a smartphone or tablet when they travel? Slide 26 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 27. #7 In recent years we’ve seen a shift away from learning as something that only happens through pairing teachers with students in traditional classrooms. Innovations such as learning via video instruction, or online courses from prestigious universities, are now available anytime and anywhere to anyone LEARNING with an Internet connection. The next stage of transformation is already taking shape. Fjord GETS believes this will involve highly personalised and adaptive learning materials. In addition, we’ll see the methods of delivery move from one-to-many to many-to-one. PERSONAL Ultimately, this kind of real-time adaptive learning support will transition into the broader business context. Some of the radical How being online is transforming changes we’ve seen in education and learning are set to become the way people learn part of our working lives. Slide 27 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 28. #7 LEARNING GETS PERSONAL How being online is transforming the way people learn Most classrooms are still like the classrooms of 100 years WHAT’S NEXT 2013 THE PAST 2010 ago: a single teacher teaching many students with The Aspen Institute in classroom props and textbooks. Learning involves reading conjunction with the as well as a lot of memorisation and practice sheets. Knight commission publishes Digital and While many schools gradually allow students to use online Media Literacy: A Plan tools, emphasis continues to be placed on memorisation of Action of facts. Some students find this easy; others are sometimes left behind. Students with different learning styles are difficult for instructors to address. The Khan Academy is a non-profit organisation that has THE NOW 2011 been hugely successful with its website, supplying a free Open University online collection of more than 3,600 micro lectures via reports over 50,000 overseas students video tutorials. Today there are many examples of this on demand approach to learning. Massive open online courses (MOOCs) that combine education, entertainment, and social networking are growing at an amazing pace. Universities around the world are opening their virtual doors to remote learning, and eventually online certificates may translate into some form 2012 of university credits. Khan Academy has The Open University currently has over 250,000 students, delivered over 200 more than 50,000 of which are overseas. McGraw-Hill and million lessons Coursera have launched huge initiatives to deliver fully digital course materials to tablet devices. Many experts predict these changes will lead to the 2012 disappearance of textbooks within the coming decade. McGraw-Hill reports a 20+% increase in both attendance and retention with its Connect® programme Slide 28 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 29. #7 LEARNING GETS PERSONAL How being online is transforming the way people learn As the digital model continues to evolve, Fjord WHAT’S NEXT 2013 anticipates that students will have access to an ever- 2012 broadening array of instructors, enabling them to Harvard University and personalise their learning and transforming the one to the Massachusetts many model of teaching forever. Institute of Technology found EdX MOOCs without person-to-person experiences that happen on campus will raise questions about the more social aspects of higher education, such as the process of collaborative learning, and individualized support. 2012 At the same time, data mining on student learning Coursera reaches patterns enabling real-time adaptive curricula suited to more than 1.7 million individual learning styles and interests will become — growing “faster mainstream. than Facebook” The definition of digital literacy will expand from merely conducting effective searches and evaluating the results, to include reading and making meaning from individual data and new forms of writing or 2012 composition with mixed media. Human Face of Big Data is published as a global snapshot of the world's transformation through data. Slide 29 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 30. #7 LEARNING GETS PERSONAL How being online is transforming the way people learn Big opportunities are emerging to deliver highly FJORD SUGGESTS personalised instructional material to students. Recommendation engines will suggest individualized pathways for learning from the web. As the new learning technologies reach scale, all education service touchpoints will need to be reimagined as a part of the overall service delivery. Creating a productive physical, digital, and social environment will become a critical differentiator for prestigious institutions entering the space. Businesses can adopt adaptive learning practices in the workplace, making the work done by individuals a part of their personal equity and that of the organisation. Making this happen will require improved collaboration tools. Slide 30 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 31. #8 YOU TALKING In many ways, it’s logical that the next frontier for interface disruption should be the voice. But prodding and poking objects is something TO ME? we’ve always done, and talking to thin air has always been a sure sign of a crazy person. Voice Exploring new challenges in human-machine services are still not taking off as rapidly as they communication should. What will it take to make voice interaction compelling enough to make people want to integrate it into their daily lives? Slide 31 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 32. #8 YOU TALKING TO ME? Exploring new challenges in human-machine communication Companies have been exploring voice input for WHAT’S NEXT 2013 THE PAST decades—from the sultry Wildfire virtual secretary to Apple’s Knowledge Navigator, the promise of voice control has long overshadowed its reality. Over the 1990 past five years, touchscreen and mobile interactions Virtuosity Wildfire have become the norm, leading to hugely heightened virtual assistant expectations around responsiveness and instant gratification. Apple and Google are learning through their THE NOW experiments. Siri and Google Voice Search are battling it 2007 out in the smartphone marketplace, with Siri positioned iPhone introduces mass market touch as a helpful assistant with amusing faux-human traits, interaction and Google Voice Search positioned as a lightning fast and somewhat geekier expert search-bot. The problem is that without a solid understanding of the immediate context and intent of the user, today’s voice services still come across as either not contextually aware enough – or simply not intelligent enough in the case of Siri. Google Now is a contextual dashboard that displays just-in time relevant information to you based on your activities across your Google services or accessible 2010 information on your device, such as your calendar. Some Apple launches Siri users consistently report that context awareness and hyper personalisation without explicit permission can feel creepy. 2011 Google Voice Search launches Slide 32 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 33. #8 YOU TALKING TO ME? Exploring new challenges in human-machine communication The future will hold not only great voice WHAT’S NEXT 2013 recognition and interpretation, but as more people use these systems they will have more data, and thus be able to more effectively anticipate context 2012 and intent. Chevrolet adds Siri to in-car systems We’ll begin to see new services that listen in the background with explicit permission and deliver genie-like wishes for everything - from a casually mentioned book to the address for a San Francisco restaurant that reminds us of a loved 2012 one in London - and prompts accordingly for Nuance announces Nina™ personal orders or reservations. assistant with open As systems gain their users’ trust, the next level of SDK intelligence could come by integrating with the data from the apps that reside on an individual’s device. 2013 will see voice services popping up more prominently in more contexts—transportation, 2012 healthcare, financial services and education. Voice Haiku for iPhone integration will become a must-have for enables medical smartphone and tablet applications, and professionals to voice- input health data voiceprints will emerge as a new kind of personal signature. This is a future where the service that wins will be the one that appears to be the most personal, responds the most quickly and appropriately, and 2013 simply ‘feels’ the most human. Microsoft to add Tellme Natural User Interface to its family of products Slide 33 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 34. #8 YOU TALKING TO ME? Exploring new challenges in human-machine communication A large part of online customer self-service activities FJORD SUGGESTS will be done with the help of virtual assistants soon. No business can afford to ignore the voice dimension for much longer. Designing for voice interactions is a key component of service design, starting now. There is a huge opportunity to create value by voice- enabling the day-to-day tasks of people who benefit from being hands-free. While gestural interfaces may come in time, these are more difficult to implement. Voice interactions are far more natural, particularly as many mobile devices are already voice-dominated channels for their users. Slide 34 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 35. #9 THE The speed of movement to mobile has amazed everyone. But it has not been matched by the speed with which most organisations are able to monetize it. We’ve gone from analogue dollars to digital dimes and now to mobile cents. This is creating a commercial gulf that is going to put pressure on cash and funding for many new mobile ventures, MOBILE simply because the average revenue per user has a clear tendency to drop when a product is wholly or primarily mobile. GAP Into this volatile mix we can now add tablets and 4G in many markets next year. The search is on for business models and enablers, and it’s likely some will come from the developing Business plays catch-up with world. adoption Slide 35 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 36. #9 THE MOBILE GAP Business plays catch-up with adoption As the web went mainstream in the 1990s, some WHAT’S NEXT 2013 THE PAST commercial success stories emerged quickly (Amazon, eBay) and some evolved a little later (such as Google). PRE-2005 When mobile data emerged, it was seen as a subset of the connected desktop. But as smartphones have WAP info services developed, we have shifted to an increasingly mobile- first perspective and the minimal engagement of the early WAP services seems like ancient history. 2010 Eric Schmidt With rising global smartphone adoption, many THE NOW announces Google's businesses are looking at mobile as the primary channel Mobile First for customer acquisition and relationship building, with strategy at MWC 2010 desktop services as secondary. However, in the developed world, Fjord believes that many of us still think of these mobile services as extensions of the desktop service. This limits us to the business models that already exist. Some iconic mobile start-ups like Foursquare, Twitter and Instagram still do not have a viable business model. Facebook has famously seen a decline in value due to its perceived inability to get to 2012 2012 grips with mobile. Zynga’s average revenue per mobile PayPal transactions Facebook stock loses up 195% on Cyber over 30% of its IPO user is only a fifth of a desktop user’s. And tablets are Monday 2012 value in 6 months mixing things up further. By the end of 2013, one in four US adults will own a tablet – it took the mobile phone 16 years to reach that. Some companies are getting it right. For example, PayPal will process $12bn in mobile 2012 transactions in 2012. Some of the most successful Citibank puts iPad players in mobile are banks or transaction-oriented service at the heart players, who have reported that mobile users are among of its advertising their most profitable customers. story Slide 36 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential
  • 37. #9 THE MOBILE GAP Business plays catch-up with adoption In 2013 we are likely to see an intense focus on WHAT’S NEXT 2013 how to make mobile devices pay for most service companies. Wallet initiatives will be at the centre 2013 of this, but expect also innovation in mobile Hardware innovation discovery both from the major platform owners slows: new phones fail (Apple Store and Google Play) and independents to excite like Flurry. We will see an increase in entirely new services and business models driven by mobile-first or mobile-only engagement. 2013 Households in US At the same time, developing countries (notably and Europe reach Kenya, Brazil and India) have seen massive an average of 7+ innovation in business models that leverage mobile connected devices technology. 50% of Kenya's GDP moves through mobile, and most Africans experience the Internet first on a mobile phone. In Kenya, Sudan and Gabon, more than half of adults use mobile money. 2013 Opera acquired for HTML 5 skills by OTT giant 2013 Mobile TV companion apps go mainstream (GetGlue, Zeebox), revenues uncertain Slide 37 © Fjord 2012 | Confidential