Presentation by WorldFish Director General Stephen Hall at the 2015 World Seafood Congress in Grimsby, U.K.

1. Fisheries and aquaculture in
the developing world: a
research agenda for the next
decade.
World Seafood Congress, 2015, Grimsby, UK
Stephen J. Hall

2. Objectives
 About WorldFish
 About the World’s Fish Food System.
 How much fish do we produce today?
 How much fish do we expect to produce in future?
 How much fish do we need to produce in future?
 Implications from a developing country perspective
 Three Challenges
 A research agenda to meet those challenges
 Reflections on the skills we need

3. 3
Mission
To reduce poverty and hunger by improving
fisheries and aquaculture.

4. • Founded in 1975
• 272 Research staff
• 439 Staff globally
• 160 Research projects
• 7 Country offices
• $US 41m income

5. Fish Matter
•  20% of animal protein
intake for 3 billion people.
• An important part of a
healthy diet.
• Nutrients essential to
cognitive and physical
development, especially in
children
The most important of the major categories of animal-source foods.

6. Those most dependent on fish are among
the most food and nutrition insecure.

7. Source: FAO 2014; note: volumes include fish for human consumption as well as fish for other uses such as
fishmeal, etc.
Total
Wild
Catch
94 m T
59%
Total
AQ:
62 m T
41%
World Fish Production
2011
Marine |CAGR: -0.5%
Inland |CAGR: 2.3%
Freshwater |CAGR: 6.6%
Marine |CAGR: 4.3%
Brackish |CAGR: 8.8%

8. www.fishingfuture.org

9. The outcome of a conversation with global business leaders, governments,
philanthropic foundations and NGO stakeholders in Bellagio (2013).
Source: Fishing for a Future Bellagio Workshop Synthesis Report www.fishingfuture.org/……
Desirable
‘Eden’
Future
5 global scenarios for future of fish food
system in 2030

10. How much are we likely to produce by 2030?*
75
61
2015
109
61
2030
*Average of FAO and World Bank Projections. Units: Million Metric Tons
CAGR
2.5%
0%
136 170Total

11. How much fish should we produce in 2030?
Demand Need

12. Two Approaches
1. 2030 Projection based on nutritional need
 How much fish for an adequate contribution to a
nutritious balanced diet for everyone?
2. 2030 Projection based on trends in
consumption (FAO Method)
 How much fish to satisfy the world’s appetite?
Not a substitute for detailed econometric analysis that models the
interactions between supply and demand
Estimating Future Fish Requirements

13. ‘Ideal’ fish consumption per kg body wgt
Method 1

14. The total biomass of humans in 2030
Method 1 (cont.d)
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15. Projecting from consumption trends
Source: FAOStat, World Bank Data
In general, countries with higher per
capita GDP require more fish 1. Estimate relationship
between per capita GDP
and per capita fish
consumption for each
country from historical
data.
2. Project this relationship
forward using estimated
per capita GDP and
population to predict fish
requirement in 2030.
Method 2

16. Estimated Fish Requirements in 2030*
238
228
Demand
Need
2030
232
Requirement
*Estimate of fish for direct human consumption. Units: Million Metric Tons

17. 2030 Requirement versus Expectation
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
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Pacific3(excl3
China)
Europe3&3
Central3Asia
Latin3America3
&3The3
Caribbean
Middle3East3&3
North3Africa
North
Chart3Title
50
0
100
150
25
250
200
China East3Asia3&3
Pacific
Europe3&3
Central3Asia
LAC MENA North3America South3Asia SubBSaharan3
Africa
Chart3Title
Series1 Series2
3
3
Europe3&3
Central3Asia
Latin3America3
&3The3
Caribbean
Middle3East3&3
North3Africa
North3America South3Asia SubFSaharan3
Africa
Chart3Title
Series1 Series2
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
World China East3Asia3&3
Pacific
Europe3&3
Central3Asia
LAC MENA North3America South3Asia SubBSaharan3
Africa
Chart3Title
Series1 Series2
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
World China East3Asia3&3
Pacific
Europe3&3
Central3Asia
LAC MENA North3America Sou
Series1 Series225
50
25
25
75
FishSupplyRequirementMillionMetricTons)
62.4 7.6
4.9
7.1
7.5
4.9 3.4
14.6
12.5
4.9Business As Usual Eden Requirement Supply – Requirement Gap
• We will be 62
million metric
tons short
unless we do
something

18. Aquaculture Growth is Vital
0
50
100
150
200
250
BAU
2030
Eden
2030
FishSupplyRequirementMillionMetricTons)
170
232
15
8
39
Waste & Loss
Reduction
Improved
Fisheries
Aquaculture
Gap • Aquaculture will need
to produce 39 million
more tons than the 109
currently projected.
• This will require a shift
from an expected 2.5%
CAGR to 4.7%
But we cannot ignore fisheries and we need to reduce
waste and loss!

19. Implications from a developing country
perspective?
Demand Need

20. The Production Challenge
How do we produce enough fish to meet future demand and
need?

21. The Sustainability Challenge
How do we ensure that the fish food system is both
economically and ecologically sustainable?

22. The Distribution Challenge
How do we ensure that the fish is affordable and available for
all and that the economic and nutritional benefits from the
sector are equitably shared?

23. Interlinked Challenges
1
2
3
4
Technologies for sustainable
intensification of aquaculture
Improving aquatic
agricultural livelihoods.
Developing nutrition
sensitive fish value chains
Sustaining fish production
systems
The
Sustainability
Challenge
The
Distribution
Challenge
The
Production
Challenge
1
2
4
3
1
2
3
4
1
2 3
4

24. Technologies for sustainable intensification
of aquaculture
Polyculture with small
indigenous species.
• Finding technology and
financing combinations that
accelerate pro-poor
aquaculture development
• Sustaining rates of genetic
improvement of fish suited
to poor farmers
• Improving the nutritional
value of farmed fish?
• Developing sustainable feed
alternatives
Research Challenges

25. Sustaining fish production systems
Linking ecological and
economic scenario models
• Understanding the social
and ecological implications
for alternative trajectories for
aquaculture growth?
• Identifying how modified
river flows affect inland
fisheries and aquaculture?
• Identifying fisheries
governance approaches that
distribute benefits more
equitably?
Research Challenges

26. Nutrition sensitive value chains
• Shape products and prices
to increase the availability,
affordability and
accessibility
• Reducing losses and
waste and improve food
safety
• Reversing inequities in
household distribution of
fish to benefit children and
pregnant women
Research Challenges Intra-household consumption

27. Enhancing Aquatic Agricultural Systems?
Technology Options
• Identifying technology
combinations work best
• Harnessing the agro-
diversity to provide better
livelihood options people in
AAS
• Finding the best ways to
engage with communities to
achieve development
outcomes?
• Scaling succsesses
Research Challenges

28. The skills we need
The
Sustainability
Challenge
The
Distribution
Challenge
The
Production
Challenge
1
2
4
3
1
2
3
4
1
2 3
4
BiologyEcology
Economics Anthropology
www.cgiar.org CRP Second Call Pre-proposals (FISH http://bit.ly/1MWMjdQ)

29. System Leadership
“We face a host of
systemic challenges
beyond the reach of
existing institutions and
their hierarchical
authority structures.
… At no time in history
have we needed system
leaders more.”
Senge et al, 2014

30. Thank You