Here is a look at the failure of Trudeaunomics.

1. Failure of
Trudeaunomics
BY: PAUL YOUNG, CPA, CGA
MARCH 21, 2020

2. Agenda
• What is Keynesian Economics?
• Trudeau failure on Keynesian economics
• Job Quality
• Middle Class
• Stock Market
• G7/GDP
• 2020 fastest growing economies
• Trudeau poor fiscal management
• Taxation Policies
• Money flow from taxation to program spending
• What is trickle down economics
• Money flow from a Corporation – Public Traded
• Money flow from a Corporation – GBE (Government Business Enterprise)
• Money flow from a School Board
• Money flow from a Hospital
• Fiscal Management
• Issues facing economies around the world
• Other sources

3. What is Keynesian Economics
• Keynes advocated increased government expenditures and lower taxes to
stimulate demand and pull the global economy out of the Depression.
Subsequently, the term “Keynesian economics” was used to refer to the
concept that optimal economic performance could be achieved – and
economic slumps prevented – by influencing aggregate demand through
activist stabilization and economic intervention policies by the
government. Keynesian economics is considered to be a “demand-side”
theory that focuses on changes in the economy over the short run.
Source - Keynesian Economics Definition |
Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/keynesianeconomics.
asp#ixzz4YTczh6Kk

4. Job Quality

5. Middle Class
@Bill_Morneau you have failed the middle class as such the new plan is leaving out key areas like hikes to CPP or rise
to carbon tax or other tax changes, right? https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-middle-class-continues-to-
struggle
Hey @VassyKapelos and @MercedesGlobal there is no way the tax cut will have any benefit, especially as CPP hikes
are going to happen along with higher carbon tax
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-middle-class-continues-to-struggle
There are also higher food costs $465+ per family which are all but ignored!

6. Stock Market

7. GDP / G7

8. Fastest growing economies 2020
• India 5th largest economy - https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/india-gdp-
economy-growth-uk-france/
• Canada and India relations are struggling
• Source - https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/india-canada-trade-rose-to-62-in-past-5-
years-says-canadian-min-andrew-smith-120012901370_1.html (previous govts set up policies with India
• India still has not signed a FIPA with Canada - https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-
accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/india-inde/fta-ale/background-contexte.aspx?lang=eng
Source - https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/01/09/which-
countries-will-grow-and-which-countries-will-shrink-in-
2020/#19f8dadb3c68

9. Trudeau / Fiscal Management
Source - https://www.fin.gc.ca/fiscmon-revfin/2015-
11-eng.asp
• Martin is right about investment, but this is what happen
• Trudeau introduced tax hikes to small business which led to issues -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-party-would-be-better-for-small-business-in-
canada
• Trudeau tax on the rich never led to issues with taxation -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/taxing-the-top-1-and-wealth-distribution
• Trudeau’s play the votes instead making policies that would make Canada more competitive (C69)
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-canada-competitivenes-september-2019
• Trudeau forced a regressive tax (Carbon tax) on to Cdns -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/have-the-liberals-made-lives-for-canadians-more-
affordable
• Trudeau failed to get major infrastructure work done -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-capital-and-infrastructure-canada-july-2019

10. Trudeau vs Harper - Deficits
@offroadartist seems to forget that @JustinTrudeau has taken the Liberals to the far left. I am all for balance between
program spending and growing the economy. I am not for policies that discourage people from bettering their lives!
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-and-economic-management-canada-230721080
@MOhlhoff
1. Trudeau used lapsing funds - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-management-role-of-lapsing-funds
2. Paul Martin took from EI - https://www.policyalternatives.ca/publications/monitor/beware-canadian-austerity-model
3. Fiscal Management cycle - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-and-economic-management-canada-
230721080
I suggest in the future that you do better research before making posts back at me!

11. Trudeau Rainy Day
fund
YTD/Nov 15
$1B surplus
Source – Government of Canada
2015-2016
$987M
Deficit
2016-2017
$17.8B
Deficit
2017-2018
$19.0B
Deficit
2019-2020
$25.0B
Deficit
(EST)
*** rounding has been done
2018-2019
$14.0B
Deficit
GDP
2015
0.9%
2016
1.4%
2017
3.0%
2018
2.1%
2019
1.6%
2020
-4.1%
Total $-
70B (Est)
AVG
GDP
0.8%

12. Fiscal Management / Trudeau
@JustinTrudeau took $1B (YTD November 2015) and in a few months turn it into $987M deficit. Trudeau policies have not
delivered. Trudeau can spin his avg. GDP of 2%, but that does not tell the complete story. Trudeau never faced a recession
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-fiscal-management-plan-conservative-party-of-canada-ndp-green-
party-of-canada-liberal-party-of-canada-ppc
https://www.thepostmillennial.com/ten-campaign-promises-justin-trudeau-totally-broke/

13. Fiscal Management
@joycemurray
Your comments on the auditor-general are not completely accurate and/or your
government being more open and transparent are also incorrect!
Here my comments on liberals when it comes to open and transparent govt.
1. In 2014-2015 there was $39M spent on Performance Audits. You are now spending $32M
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-open-and-transparent-government-canada-
148976592 (see slide 12)
2. Your government changed the reporting on the fiscal monitor. You eliminated reporting of depts, why?
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-open-and-transparent-government-canada-
148976592 (see slide#8)
Trudeau fail to look at effectiveness of his programs. All Trudeau
did was throw money at the symptoms

14. Trudeau / Tax Reform
• Trudeau’s tax policies were abysmal failure
• Rich pay less in taxes - https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canada-s-top-1-per-cent-saw-fastest-
income-acceleration-overall-decrease-in-taxes-1.4609196 (Trudeau wanted a quick win on taxatoin
and it backfire)
• Trudeau poverty number are also miss leading as he changed the calculation as well introduced
policies like carbon tax that hurt the low- income earners -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-poverty-and-income-inequality-
september-2019
• Trudeau made a tax cut to middle class but removed the tax credits as such the middle class pays
higher taxes - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/middle-class-are-you-better-off-in-2019-
canada
• Trudeau never introduce proper tax reform, i.e. ITA reforms, closing down tax havens, etc. -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-who-do-your-trust-more-when-it-comes-
to-tax-fairness

15. Government Taxation / Spending Flow
Consumers
Corporations
Government Entities
Taxation Flow
• Income Tax
(Personal)
• Income Tax
(Corporate)
• Consumption
Tax
• Income from
GBE
• Dividends
(LCBO)
Spending Flow
• Government
Transfers
(Healthcare,
infrastructure,
post-secondary
education,
childcare
• Direct Program
• Healthcare
• Education
• Social
Services
• Public
Safety

16. What is Trickle Down Economics
• Trickle-down economics, or “trickle-down theory,” argues for
income and capital gains tax breaks or other financial benefits to
large businesses, investors and entrepreneurs in order to
stimulate economic growth. The argument hinges on two
assumptions: all members of society benefit from growth; and
growth is most likely to come from those with the resources and
skills to increase productive output.
Source Trickle-Down Theory Definition |
Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trickledownt
heory.asp#ixzz4YTi1ElxV

17. School Board - Flow
Source -
http://www3.dpcdsb.org/Documents/Financial%20Stateme
nts%2031%20August%202016.pdf
Commentary:
• 90% of the school board
is supported by taxation
(Provincial grants:
1. 80-88% of costs are tied
to instructional costs
2. Wynne refuse to
implement the
Drummond Report
and/or re-work the
costing model
https://www.slideshare.n
et/paulyoungcga/whats-
next-for-education-in-
ontario (see slide 36)

18. Hospital - Flow
Source -
https://www.rvh.on.ca/account/SiteAssets/SitePages/account/2016
Commentary
• Approximately 70% of
funding comes the
government
• Doctors and Nurses
compensation is tied to
contracts
• Many hospitals have
donor programs to
support either hospital
expansion or new
equipment
• Money Flow
• Spending
• Taxation (Personal)

19. Starting a business
• Takes capital
• Many high growth companies rely on stock options as well as other
deferred compensation a part of growing their business
• Small business are hurt by taxation, hydro, red tape/regulations
• The bulk of all new jobs created are by small business

20. How do pension funding work?
• Pension funds by assets (investments) with pension funds generated
contributions made by both private and public sector employees
• Pension funds are looking for ways to maximized the Pension Fund
returns
• If you increase taxation then you actually are hurting pensions funds,
i.e. less income (dividends) for pension funds
• Defined Benefit Plans
• Guaranteed pensioners a set amount to paid out to them.

21. Harper / Trickle Down Economics
• Source – http://globalnews.ca/news/1356467/tax-cuts-since-2005-
net-canadians-30b-pbo/
Fiscal Management –
Harper
Keynesian Examples
• Harper increase
program spending
• Harper established
dedicated funding for
infrastructure
• Harper honored the
transfers to the
provinces
• Harper moved OAS to
67
• Harper is not
responsible for
mismanagement at the
provincial level
Commentary
• After the 2008-2009 recession is when Canada had
one of the strongest economy in the G-7

22. Risk/Issues with Keynesian Economics
• Source -
http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2012/07/12/obamanomi
cs-the-final-nail-in-the-discredited-keynesian-
coffin/#4e241e7a2167
Forbes Video:
https://www.youtube
.com/watch?v=yOl37
VcG89c&t=28s
Commentary:
• USA tax system is
complicated
• USA does poor job of
redistribution of wealth
• USA income inequality
worsening
• Government waste money
or about 1/3 of all
spending is wasted

23. Issues facing an economy
• Government Deficit and Debt - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/is-the-world-heading-to-
debt-crisis
• Mismanagement of government moneys
• Structural deficits
• Government trying to be everything to everyone
• Size of the economy - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-reopen-the-economy-
canada-postcovid19
• Consumer spending drives 2/3 of the economy
• Exports are key area for many countries (Canada drives 25% of their GDP via exports or about $520B)
• People want cheat goods and services
• Taxation
• You cannot tax people to prosperity
• Demographics - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/social-spending-and-tax-fairness-
197908290
• Aging population tends have different buying patterns
• Part-time vs- Full-time jobs (Precarious work)
• People are living longer

24. Summary
• Many people misunderstand either Keynesian Economics or Trickle-down
economics
• Private investment drives job creation (market-supply side of economics)
• Personal spending drives 2/3 of the economy.
• Pension funds invest pension assets into companies as part of managing the
returns
• It is not one policy that drive business expansion, but multiple policies

25. Other Sources
• If you like to learn
more about trade
and/or other
subjects as part of
your professional
learning and
development then
feel free to review
my material on
https://www.udemy.
com/ (search Paul
Young CPA CGA