Here is a look at Canada's Fiscal Update

1. CANADA FISCAL
UPDATE – OCTOBER
2017
BY: PAUL YOUNG CPA, CGA
DATE: OCTOBER 25, 2017

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. OVERVIEW
This presentation looks at Canada Fiscal Update for 2017-2018

4. AGENDA
1. Fiscal Update
2. Employment
3. Employment Rebuttal #1
4. Employment Rebuttal #2
5. GDP
6. GDP Rebuttal
7. Fiscal Management
8. Manufacturing
9. Consumer Confidence
10. Risks

5. FISCAL UPDATE
Source – BMO Economics

6. EMPLOYMENT
Source - http://www.budget.gc.ca/fes-eea/2017/docs/statement-enonce/fes-eea-2017-eng.pdf
The Government’s plan to
invest in the economy and
strengthen the middle class
is working. The
recent resurgence in gross
domestic product (GDP)
makes Canada the fastest
growing economy in
the Group of Seven (G7)
(Chart 1.1). The economy
has created over 450,000
jobs since late 2015, and
the unemployment rate has
dropped to its lowest level
since 2008

7. EMPLOYMENT REBUTTAL – JULY 2017
• “Good sector employment was up just 2K as gains in manufacturing and resources were offset by declines
in construction, agriculture and utilities. The services sector created a net 9K jobs, with strength in trade,
health care, info/culture, transport/warehousing more than offsetting sharp declines in education (-32K)”
• Canada job market has been very strong for the past 12+ months. However, caution should be used when
reviewing the numbers:
• Goods producing areas like construction and natural resources continue to struggle to create jobs. “The
Canadian job gains were not only lower than expected, but the composition of the gains was tilted towards
self-employment, which is not necessarily a good thing. The drop-in construction and the private sector in
general is also not good news” – National Bank of Canada - https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-
and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-jobs.pdf
• There is more movement to self-employment which is never a good sign for an economy. The bad news is
that self-employment is being targeted by Minister of Finance through what is called Income Sprinkling -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/tax-policies-small-business-income-sprinkling-canada-july-2017
• Source:
• https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-jobs.pdf
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/employment-canada-july-2017-78592620

8. EMPLOYMENT REBUTTAL#2
• Bertan Atalay You have the classic con illness: not understanding what you
read. You being Keynesian is not the high watermark for everyone else. It
is but one economic "theory".
Show me one stat that shows jobs were not created and Canada hasn't
grown?
Didn't think so!!
Response:
• I am not sure why I provide links to you as you will not read them, why? https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-
outlook-canada-and-the-world-september-8-2017. (see slide 4). Oil has rebounded significant, but the jobs. Manufacturing
pickup, but now is pulling back. The only headcount that has been consistent for past 12 months has been the service sector.
• Do you even grasp Keynesian economics? No! A government cannot artificially inflate economy for long period of time as
that takes money out of the private sector. Government has role to spend money, but that money should be invested in areas
that support private sector growth. Trudeau talks about infrastructure money and yet that money has slow to crawl to
municipal government. - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/building-permits-canada-july-2017
•
• FYI – I suggest you refrain from insults at me. I have close 900 presentations on various topics. I am very educate in both
government policies as well as what it takes to compete.

9. GDP
Source - http://www.budget.gc.ca/fes-eea/2017/docs/statement-enonce/fes-eea-2017-eng.pdf or http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/forecast.pdf

10. GDP ANALYSIS - LIBERALS
Source – Stats Canada

11. GDP - REBUTTAL
1. Do you understand trickle economics? I seen too many people like you come and make posts in terms of trickle
down economics. FYI – It is private sector that drives the economy not government. Government imposing more
taxes and regulations does not grow an economy, but hinder economic growth.
a. Trudeau so called middle class tax cut did not work - https://globalnews.ca/news/3769136/taxes-middle-
class-liberals/. This is before carbon tax is implemented across Canada 2019. The carbon tax will hurt low
to middle class more than the wealthy. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/australian-carbon-tax-
opponent-chris-berg-saskatchewan-1.3884765
b. Yet the PBO office said CPC cuts help low to middle class Canadians. Trudeau again got it wrong about
Harper and his policies!!!! https://globalnews.ca/news/1356467/tax-cuts-since-2005-net-canadians-30b-
pbo/.
c. In 2014 is when Canada had the best middle class in the world - https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-
on-business/top-business-stories/canadas-middle-class-now-worlds-richest-study-
suggests/article18090490/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com& People complain about corporations and
yet they contribute to wealth distribution –
 Harper did not just focus on tax cuts including corporate tax, but also set up innovation funds and sign trade
deals to expand exports. https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/wealth-distribution-canada-corporate-tax-
july-2017. Trudeau was elected and said he will focus on clean technology, right? https://www.liberal.ca/wp-
content/uploads/2015/08/A-new-plan-for-Canadas-environment-and-economy.pdf The problem is clean
technology companies are not making money, right? http://www.bnn.ca/awash-in-red-ink-canadian-clean-tech-
struggling-despite-ottawa-s-green-goals-1.729679
 Harper created many innovation funds, sign trade agreements, expanded ports like Montreal, Prince Rupert, etc.
Harper was all about getting goods to market. More could have been done, but pipelines as well as lack of
priorities by governments including Ontario on natural resource development set Harper back -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/merchandise-trade-canada-july-2017
 Liberals love to fabricate the facts - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/liberal-party-of-canada-election-
promises-september-2017. FYI the middle class tax cut was supposed to be revenue neutral and it was not -
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/12/07/liberals-middle-class-tax-cut-rich_n_8740118.html

12. FISCAL MANAGEMENT
• Deficits - https://www.facebook.com/PierrePoilievreMP/videos/10155094066502379/
Response:
• Middle Class Tax - https://globalnews.ca/news/3769136/taxes-middle-class-liberals/. Liberals
removed boutique tax credits - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/middle-class-
analysis-and-commentary-canada-october-2017 or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/did-the-middle-class-cut-truly-help-canadians
• Fiscal Management - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/surplus-deficit-canada-fy-
20162017

13. MANUFACTURING SECTOR
Source – Stats Canada

14. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Source - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-02/canadian-consumer-
confidence-falters-amid-higher-borrowing-costs
Canadian consumer confidence fell to the lowest in more than two months
as perceptions about real estate and personal finances worsen.
The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index -- a weekly survey based
on questions about personal finances, job security, the economic outlook
and real estate prices -- fell to 58.3 at the end of September, the lowest
score since mid July.

15. RISKS
• 2019 Carbon Tax (All Provinces) - http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/ottawas-carbon-tax-
plan-to-shrink-economy-by-3-billion-hurt-loonie-in-2018-study
• NAFTA - https://globalnews.ca/news/3819407/canadians-working-us-tn-visa-nafta/
• Housing Market - http://www.news1130.com/2017/09/29/canada-housing-affordability/
• Infrastructure investment
• Slow flow of infrastructure money - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fdi-foreign-direct-investment-
the-importance-of-capital-inflow or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/building-permits-canada-july-
2017
• No new trade agreements
• CETA has now kicked into gear
• No new investment deals