This document provides an analysis of Canada's GDP and economic growth under different Prime Ministers. It includes biographical information about the author, Paul Young. Several sources are cited that discuss GDP growth rates and key economic factors under Harper and Trudeau. Justin Trudeau previously criticized Harper's economic record. However, the document argues that Harper pursued various policies to support trade, innovation and economic growth. It also questions whether Trudeau's policies around clean technology and carbon taxation have significantly boosted jobs and growth. Overall, the document takes a skeptical view of claims that Harper damaged the economy and questions whether growth has meaningfully increased under Trudeau.

1. TRUTH – CANADA
GDP -
OCTOBER 2017
BY: PAUL YOUNG CPA, CGA
DATE: OCTOBER 5, 2017

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. CANADA GDP GROWTH
• Source – Scotiabank and http://www.indexmundi.com/canada/gdp_real_growth_rate.html

4. KEY FACTORS / GDP
Source – BMO

5. GDP ANALYSIS – JULY 2017
Source - Stats Canada

6. JUSTIN TRUDEAU ELECTION PROMISE
STRONG GROWTH
• http://www.nationalobserver.com/2015/05/21/news/harper-worst-prime-minister-economic-growth-great-depression-trudeau
"Prime Minister Harper has the worst record of any prime
minister on economic growth since R. B. Bennett in the depths
of the Great Depression." — Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau,
Friday, May 15, 2015.
Though Justin Trudeau said it as recently as last week, the
Liberals have been claiming since at least 2013 that Canada's
economic growth under the Harper-led Conservative
government has been the worst since the 1930s.
Among those who use it often is Liberal MP — and former
federal finance minister — Ralph Goodale.
In an April speech, Goodale added some detail, noting that
"since the Harper government came to power, Canada has had
an average annual economic growth rate of only about 1.75 per
cent — that's the worst growth record of any prime minister
since R. B. Bennett in the 1930s."

7. LIBERALS 2008-2009 RECESSION
• https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ignatieff-pushes-more-
stimulus/article1229628/
"Mr. Harper has said that the time for more economic
stimulus is over, it's finished. …We believe, on the
contrary, that there are perhaps other things that need to
be done. That's why we're insisting on an improvement of
employment insurance, for example."
The two leaders struck a June deal to set up a working
group on employment insurance, to discuss a Liberal call
for a national, lower standard for eligibility for EI to replace
eligibility requirements that vary widely from region to
region, and a Conservative proposal for extending some
benefits to the self-employed.
Globe and Mail – July 24, 2017

8. LIBERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN PROMISE
2015
• https://www.liberal.ca/real-change-a-new-plan-for-canadas-environment-and-
economy/
And those two things, the environment
and the economy, they go together like
paddles and canoes. Unless you have
both, you won’t get to where you are
going, because you can’t have a strong
economy without a healthy environment. If
we want to leave both to our children and
grandchildren – if we want them to inherit
clean air to breathe, clean water to drink,
and sail on, and a strong, vibrant, high-
tech economy with good jobs – we’ve got
to do them both together.
The world has changed in the last 10
years. Stephen Harper doesn’t get it. Now
and in the future, the path to economic
growth and good middle class jobs is
through strong environmental policy.

9. MINISTRY OF FINANCE / SLOW GROWTH
• http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/finance-liberals-economy-budget-morneau-
consultations-jobs-1.3883770
Finance Canada is giving business leaders a
decidedly gloomy picture of the Canadian
economy as part of the department's pre-
budget consultations this fall.
A Dec. 5 slide show, obtained by CBC News,
projects weak annual growth of just 1.8 per
cent on average until 2029, and cites full-time
job losses of 1.9 per cent across Canada so far
this calendar year.
The slide show also notes that productivity is
slowing, energy-sector investment is in sharp
decline, and household indebtedness is at
record levels.
CBC News – December 6, 2016

10. SMALL BUSINESS TAX PROPOSAL - GDP
Source - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/chamber-of-commerce-tax-reform-opposition-1.4305868
Finance Minister Bill Morneau failed to reassure members of the Canadian
Chamber of Commerce that his tax reforms won't hurt their businesses, says Perrin
Beatty, the group's CEO and president.
Beatty said Morneau's speech to the business group at its annual meeting in
Fredericton over the weekend had "just the opposite effect" and the chamber is not
backing down from its fight against the reforms.
"We're very much worried about what the impact would be on family farmers, small
business people down the main street of all communities in Canada, and what it
would do in terms of discouraging job creation, growth in the economy, and so on,"
said Beatty, a former Progressive Conservative MP and cabinet minister.

11. LIBERAL REBUTTAL - GDP
Here is more information on Harper:
• Harper did not just focus on tax cuts including corporate tax, but also set up innovation funds and sign trade deals to expand exports.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/wealth-distribution-canada-corporate-tax-july-2017. Trudeau was elected and said he will focus on
clean technology, right? https://www.liberal.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/A-new-plan-for-Canadas-environment-and-economy.pdf The problem
is clean technology companies are not making money, right? http://www.bnn.ca/awash-in-red-ink-canadian-clean-tech-struggling-despite-
ottawa-s-green-goals-1.729679
• Harper created many innovation funds, sign trade agreements, expanded ports like Montreal, Prince Rupert, etc. Harper was all about getting
goods to market. More could have been done, but pipelines as well as lack of priorities by governments including Ontario on natural resource
development set Harper back - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/merchandise-trade-canada-july-2017
• I see nothing in proving your point that tax cuts do not work. All I see is opinion. So, I suggest provide a source or shut up. If you realised a
couple things about world it is very global now. Canada needs to be competitive when it comes to attracting foreign capital. If you look at
Harper’s policies then you will see he did not focus on one area, but many areas like innovation, trade, FIPA, capping the growth in payroll
taxes, etc. http://ottawacitizen.com/storyline/head-of-canadas-largest-manufacturing-association-says-tories-have-supported-the-sector or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/manufacturing-sector-canada-june-2017
• Do you own RRSP? You have CPP deducted, right? Where does pension money go? It goes to profitable companies, right?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cpp-pension-earnings-1.4243308
• You treat corporation with other distaste, but I bet you shop at grocery store, drive a car, own a cell phone, rent/own a house, right? You would
not have these luxuries without corporations.
• I see you are also talking about the bailout, right? Harper was forced into bail out.
http://www.autonews.com/article/20160907/OEM01/160909877/co-directors-tell-why-they-made-auto-bailout-documentary
• I have explained many times about deficit and debt, but you will never read the links. https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-
government-debt-canada-august-2017 or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-cpc-and-liberals-surplus-debate

12. REBUTTAL #2 – GDP
Damage caused by the CPC, really? What damage would that be in terms of GDP or taxation
policies? It seems back in 2014 that Canada had the best Middle Class in the world, right?
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canada-ranked-as-most-admired-country-in-the-world-report-
1.2470040 Canada fell in 2016, why? It was nothing to do with Harper as he has been gone for
over a year - http://globalnews.ca/news/3293192/canada-2nd-best-country-2017-world-rankings-
survey/ (Canada fell to #2 under Trudeau)
Economic Damage, really? What would that economic damage be?
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-outlook-canada-and-the-world-september-8-2017
Harper had growth rates of 2.2% after the recession. Harper policies supported many sectors of
the economy including manufacturing - http://mb.cme-mec.ca/?lid=YXN82-W3NF7-
IC132&comaction=show&cid=3CWP8-FKASM-JYNFE. Harper also brought in dedicated funding
to infrastructure which you also have ignored, right?
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/government-policies-infrastructure-canada
Show me where carbon taxation has created jobs?
http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/ottawas-carbon-tax-plan-to-shrink-
economy-by-3-billion-hurt-loonie-in-2018-study. Carbon taxation makes Canada’s export more
expensive to their peers in countries like USA and China. Canada trades with those countries -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/merchandise-trade-canada-july-2017
Have you also look at GDP in 2017? What is driving it? It would be oil and housing, right? It is
too bad that you do not look at facts and figures as they show exactly what is happening in
Canada. https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gross-domestic-product-gdp-canada-june-
2017 or BMO

13. Here is my critique on GDP
1. I have done my own assessment of the debt/deficit - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/justin-trudeau-cpc-
deficit-june-2017 or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-management-conservative-party-of-canada-pm-
harper
2. What assets did Harper sell off? Show me examples? BTW: Who is planning to sell off airports?
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-management-conservative-party-of-canada-pm-harper or
http://www.gopdebates.org/tag/liberals-drive-to-privatize-canadian-airports-lifts-off
3. Employment – Canada jobs have increase but that is led by the service sector including retail, transportation and
government jobs. The goods producing sector continues to lag those sectors -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/employment-canada-july-2017-78592620
4. GDP was 1.7% in 2016 and forecasted to be 1.9% in 2018. 2017 GDP is 2.9 which means the average is still 2.1%
the same growth it has been for 15+ years (if you ignored the 2009 recession the growth rate is on par with the 15+
years) - http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/forecast.pdf
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-canada-may-2017 or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/liberal-
party-of-canada-justin-trudeau-fiscal-management-and-gdp-july-2017
5. What happen from 2008-2009? Global Recession, right? https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-
business/economy/economy-lab/why-canadas-recession-wasnt-as-brutal/article612437/ The problem what people do
not understand is that government cannot be completely responsible for a growing economy or a depressed economy
a. Government’s role is set policies that will support GDP growth. Let me give you break down on Liberal policies
that are not helping GDP
i. Hikes to CPP means that businesses will be adding more payroll costs
ii. Carbon taxation being forced on business will also impact competitiveness for companies
iii. Trudeau is giving money to R&D/Clean Tech. The problem is clean tech companies have yet to turn a
profit - http://www.bnn.ca/awash-in-red-ink-canadian-clean-tech-struggling-despite-ottawa-s-green-
goals-1.729679
iv. Trudeau has not fixed the process to get projects off the ground. Kinder Morgan is now in jeopardy due
to the new NDP government
v. Trudeau has done little on new trade deals. The only deals signed by Trudeau were ones done under the
CPC.
REBUTTAL
#3 – GDP

14. REBUTTAL#4 -
Link = http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-gdp-1.4139075
1. GDP will hit 2.9% in 2017 as compare to 1.6% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2018. GDP under the liberal term in office is 2.2% which is the
similar growth that GDP has been at for 15+ years -
2. There is danger when it comes to an overpriced housing market. Housing prices have fallen over the past few months, but still are
very high - http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/forecast.pdf https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/07/27/despite-
cooler-market-house-prices-still-gaining-in-some-parts-of-the-gta.html or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-canada-
may-2017
3. Government cannot take all the credit for economy. All the government can do is support the economy through policies like
taxation, trade deals, regulations and infrastructure spending, etc.
4. IMF has called out the Canadian Housing Market –https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/07/27/despite-cooler-market-house-
prices-still-gaining-in-some-parts-of-the-gta.html “The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that while Canada’s economy
has regained momentum, housing imbalances have increased and uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations with the United
States could hurt the recovery.
5. Trudeau on deficits - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=py1t3tGqCuk – The ironic things is Trudeau thinks his deficits are OK, CPC
were bad.
6. Goods producing sector continues struggle, especially manufacturing and construction – (see slide 6) -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/are-gdp-fundamentals-strong-for-canada-and-united-states-may-2017

15. EAST-WEST PIPELINE
Source - https://article.wn.com/view/2017/10/05/TransCanada_to_abandon_Energy_East_and_Eastern_Mainline_proj/

16. SUMMARY
• Trudeau government did not have the answer for slow growth
• Government role with the economy is to support policies that encourage public sector growth
• Global economy is competitive. Liberals are introducing hikes to CPP as well as a new Carbon Tax
• Governments should neither get all credit for growing economy nor for a slowing economy
• Canada’s GDP growth has been consistent for 15+ years and that is rate of about 2.2%.
• Liberals infrastructure plan has been very slow which has not help construction industry since they
took office in 2015
• Liberals are on path to $100B new debt with growth rates same as the past 15+ years