China political economy

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Maysam Araee Daronkola
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China Political weight index
1. When we look at the China political weight trends in last
20 years, find out that they are not just growth in economy
and politics, at now their Political Weight in a miraculous
procedure is Two times bigger than in comparison with 20
years ago and Their political weight in comparison with
2000, increasing about 105%. China PW index in 2000 was
equal to 72 and in 2018, it’s reached to 148. Again, I noted
that in PW regression we cannot compare countries PW
index with other countries and this index (political weight)
is an index for analyzing the countries internal elements
based on economic and political factors. Then in PW index,
any country situation at the present time, only can
compare with their last time. In last 20 years China has
experienced incremental growth in PW index. Even world
economic crisis in 2008, not only had a negative effect on
their position, rather after 2008 their growth is faster and
bigger than of the past. Their PW index just had a little
fluctuate in 2015, which it's recovered in the years to
come.
1
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Political Weight (PW) index

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2. China PW index body has a fantastic detail. Their GW rules
and its share in PW body in last 20 years, especially after
2008, had an increased flow. China GW share in PW body
in 2000 was 50% of the political weight body, and despite
to the increase of population, it reached to 61% in 2018.
The growth of governance ability, along with population
growth, is not easy but China unlike to most of the
Western countries, upgraded own ability. We anticipate
that due to the China-USA economic war, current flow will
be stop in next year's and most of china effective response
to USA will be focus on the political and security issues.
2
40
45
50
55
60
65
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
shares of GW in PW

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3. From 2000 till 2018 China population has faced to at least
120 million increase. Along with this situation their LPC (Land
Per Capita) decline continuously. Then, they needs in raw
material increased and will be increase in comparison with
last years. It should be noted that the Chinese people life
standards in last 20 years, had been raise and with a steep
slope will be rising in next years. They need to raw material
for achieve to the sustainable development. By attention to
their trends on the GW index (governmental weight) and PW
index (political weight), their needs in raw material and
money at the next 20 years is will be twice of the present
time. Also they need to more export in goods and products
and everyone know that they need to USA money, which
shaped one sixth of China trade, is vital. It seems that the
present conflict between USA and china lead to painful
consequence for China, especially that China dependency to
USA money is bigger than of USA dependency to Chinese
goods and service. We anticipate, if china lose own Political
weight in next year's, it is lead to Dealing with USA demands.
3
1,260,000,000
1,280,000,000
1,300,000,000
1,320,000,000
1,340,000,000
1,360,000,000
1,380,000,000
1,400,000,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
population

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4. The outcome of US-China challenge for China
is:
A. Downfall in GDP and national income and
so contraction budget
B. Counter action in economic sector
C. Highlighting of authority from Chinese
governance in confronting with Chinese
people
D. Population contraction and increase of
immigration
E. Leaving of investors
F. Losing of job opportunities
G. Define of military and security program by
China for USA and USA allies in Asia
H. Orientalism policies by China
4

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ChinaGovernmental Weight index
5. The key factor of China political weight index growth
relevant to their governmental weight (GW) growth,
because the LPC (Land Per Capita) as another
component of PW index, not only lead to this growth,
rather its lead to control of PW index growth
flow(because for population increase). China GW
index in 2000 was equal to 10 of 100 but it's by a
fantastic and incremental flow, rich to 22 of 100 in
2018. The trend of China GW index shown us they
have 120% growth in GW index. By attention to this
realities that still the structure of Chinese governance
in comparison to West countries (Europe and USA)
has a low level ability in soft power and welfare, but
in comparison to the past position of china, they has
a Fantastic growth. Some china GW component in last
20 years has been increased more than of 20 times.
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Trend of Governmental Weight (GW) index
0
20
40
60
80
GW index in some countries in 2018

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6. At now we can claim that the condition of welfare,
corruption, authority and use of force, poverty, Social
Justice and human development in china is better
than of every last time. It’s obvious that economic
development in a Chain procedure lead to human
and political development. when the common forms
of the authority for Society management is economy,
it's lead to development in political society and in
counter, when the hands of governments in economy
is empty, then it's lead to use of more physical tools
for policy. In following we can see power components
situatuin in china.
6
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001 2006 2011 2016
The share of each component of Governmental Weight
index
B share CP share Δt share
“B” for political-economy
“CP” for Authority
“∆t” For government legitimacy

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7. The trend of B index in GW body of China, as one of the
effective element in GW growth at China, is 5.4 of 100 in
2018. This index that shown us China situation in BPC
(budget per capita) and GDP per capita with best amount of
BPC in welfare state, had a very interactive growth in last 20
years. In 2000 the B index in China was less than of 1 (.64)
of 100 and across in 18 years it was increase more than of
11 times. Also its rule in GW body increased about 2000%.
The sharing of B index in GW body in 2018 is 20% and this is
for china is unbelievable. Maybe it's the main reason of China
rivals concerns. In 2000 the China BPC (Budget Per Capita)
was $200 but at now it’s $2700 and this growth is 1250%.
The BPL (Budget Per land) of China so had a very
incremental flow. In 2000 it was equal to $10 per m^2 and
in 2018 it’s reached to $400 per m^2, which it had more
than of 9000% growth. This rate explain us how china build
new china industry and fantastic infrastructure. A thing that
important in China situation is that, the China growth
processes balance in main part of society and most of the
population is a part of development process.
8. Trend of CP or concentration of power, that represent of
government authority in society management, had a decline
flow in all the last 20 years in China. The most reason of the
current situation was relevant to B index growth or economic
growth in China. It’s obvious that at the present time china is
very different in politics with china before 2000. It seems
that by rising of economic war with USA, China will
experiments a significant fallen in trade and economic, and
so fallen in the B index, which it is lead to CP (concentration
of power) in GW body. Then maybe it’s lead to China use of
more force and physical tools in Society management in next
years.
7

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9. China ∆t or governance stability index by a 69 years
old governance in china has challenge in some times
at the last years, but the economic behavior of
Chinese governance in last year's, is the axes of
people confidence to the present government. Then
any Economical Challenge, not only harming for china
position in the world economy, even this has a
political and internal consequences for China
governors. it's true that they have a fantastic growth,
but still they are fragile situation and they have
significant distance with west powers standards and
human development. Also, current age of Chinese
people finding new condition in welfare and human
welfare standards. They cannot come back to the
history and hasn’t no way unless going to the Future.
Our anticipation is that, maybe china playing flexible
rule in China-USA economic War. The both of USA
and china, which has an increasing population flow,
will has a complicate playing in the future. Maybe this
situation help the new Economic powers, (like as
India, EU countries and Brazil, as an allies and rivals),
for growth and development.
8

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ChinaPolitical Economy
10.Incredible growth of China in Governmental Weight
(GW) index rooted from the economy growth of
china, and it's strictly effected on their budget size.
China budget, in yuan, in last 20 years had increase
12 times in comparison with 2000 and from 1,240
billion yuan in 2000 reached to 19,943 billion yuan in
2018. China is a productive and industrial country
that build must of infrastructure with internal
potentials. Then the yuan budget growth lead to
effective development in China. China budget trend
shown us they have just one budget contraction in
2016, and in all the rest years, their budged had
increased flow. China national budget at 2018, in
comparison to 2000, had 1,100 percent growth. We
must say they challenge the numbers conception and
this is raised from where?
9
-
2,000,000,000,000
4,000,000,000,000
6,000,000,000,000
8,000,000,000,000
10,000,000,000,000
12,000,000,000,000
14,000,000,000,000
16,000,000,000,000
18,000,000,000,000
20,000,000,000,000
22,000,000,000,000
24,000,000,000,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
National budget in yuan

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11.In dollar, China national budget in 2018 equal to
3670 billion dollar, that in comparison to 2000, which
it was 500 billion dollar, had 660 present growth. By
attention to the US dollar exchange rate in china and
tension between in two currency in last year's, the
China budget growth in dollar wasn't coordinated
flow with yuan budget growth rate. It seems that
China governance by controlled of decline flow in
yuan price, hiding some disability on the economic
sector (such as low-income and unbalance trade
relations) but yet, the China case is fantastic and
incredible. also I must pointed that in comparison
with last 20 years china by strengthen of own
national currency, along with increase of industrial
sectors, playing as a effective economic player in
world, which everyone know this not easy.
10
-
500,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
1,500,000,000,000
2,000,000,000,000
2,500,000,000,000
3,000,000,000,000
3,500,000,000,000
4,000,000,000,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
National budget in US dollar

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12.China budget per capita (BPC) in last 20 years had an
unbelievable growth which in 2018 via 1973%
growth in comparison with 2000 (which it was $127),
at the 2018 reached to $2633. In fact this is not a
normal growth look like other countries, because this
is a kind of economic revolution in political economy.
The present growth sounds is that, at now the
Chinese people getting more facilities in comparison
with last 20 years ago and last generation. Then they
have more welfare and they are reduce their distance
with sustainable development. The present level of
national budget lead to Chinese government grows
own efficiency, and also the Chinese people economic
efficiency reach to reasonable amount. At know the
Chinese government efficiency is 3 times bigger than
of 20 years ago.
11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
BPC or Budget Per Capita GDP per capita

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13. The other important subject about the Chinese people
economic efficiency is that their growth rate in GDP Is bigger
than of most others country indicator in gross domestic
product. Their GDP per capita in 2018 was equal to $8827,
and it was $959 in 2000. Then we can see they have 820%
growth in GDP per capita in last 20 years. Although, their
growth rate in GDP is lower than of their growth rate in
budget and budget per capita, but with a reasonable view,
must be considered this type of growth is miracle.
14. The B index in China, that it shown us the budget per capita
(BPC) amount distance in under review country, with best
amount of BPC in the under review year, was in 2000 equal
to 5.4 of 100. Of course this number in China isn't good
index in comparison with welfare States, but when we see
China growth in the B index at least in last 20 years, their
815% growth in B index proof that China move to forward
fastly but by new USA orders in international community,
maybe this flow will be stop. We anticipate in 2019 the B
index flow, in the optimistic analysis will not grow, and in a
pessimistic view, will be faced with 5-8% Fallen.
12
-1
2
5
8
11
14
17
20
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
B index or budget size index

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15.The other amazing economic indicator in China that
was increased in last 20 years, is their BPL or budget
per land amount. China in 2000 pay $16.5 for each
square meter and in 2018 they paid more than of
$382 for each square meter, which it has 23 time
bigger than in comparison with BPL amount in 2000.
I think that the present situation of infrastructure in
China is an amazing situation, but much of them a
thing that lead to my confusing is that, how they
could growth their populations along with all the
economic factors?
13
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
BPL or budget per land in US dollar

China political economy

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