The theme for this quarter is reversal. Following a period of sustained growth throughout the first 10 months of 2018, the oil price recovery began to reverse in the fourth quarter.
Global power and utilities transactions attained an all-time high in 2018, increasing 28% in overall deal value to $256.3b with a record volume of 546 deals, according to the EY report Power transactions and trends Q4 2018
In 2019, we saw evidence of the impact of economic headwinds on overall mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, with global deal value declining 33% from Q4 2018 to US$20.6b. Deal value increased in the renewables and water and wastewater segments quarter on quarter while decreasing in the remaining segments.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
The theme for this quarter is reprieve. Crude prices rose steadily throughout 1Q19 as OPEC+ reigned in production to counteract the impact of North American production growth. What lies ahead is uncertain, but downward pressures loom over the marketplace.
Q2 – Analyst Themes of Quarterly Oil & Gas EarningsEY
Most companies reported strong earnings growth in the second quarter, but investors were disappointed. Expectations had risen in line with oil prices and profits, but cash flow generation of some companies fell short of consensus estimates.
Is your energy investment strategy built on the best evidence?
As the energy sector transforms, capital and investment plans must adapt too. Is it time to review your strategies in light of global utilities investment trends? Our latest Power transactions and trends report offers insight and evidence into the major themes and emerging trends driving global power and utilities M&A. Updated quarterly, the report delivers deep insights into each major region.
EY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlook Q4 2018EY
A range of upside forces have shifted market sentiment and some parties are talking of $90, or even $100/bbl oil in the short to medium term. Our insights on the outlook for the global oil price in Q4 2018.
Global power and utilities transactions attained an all-time high in 2018, increasing 28% in overall deal value to $256.3b with a record volume of 546 deals, according to the EY report Power transactions and trends Q4 2018
In 2019, we saw evidence of the impact of economic headwinds on overall mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, with global deal value declining 33% from Q4 2018 to US$20.6b. Deal value increased in the renewables and water and wastewater segments quarter on quarter while decreasing in the remaining segments.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
The theme for this quarter is reprieve. Crude prices rose steadily throughout 1Q19 as OPEC+ reigned in production to counteract the impact of North American production growth. What lies ahead is uncertain, but downward pressures loom over the marketplace.
Q2 – Analyst Themes of Quarterly Oil & Gas EarningsEY
Most companies reported strong earnings growth in the second quarter, but investors were disappointed. Expectations had risen in line with oil prices and profits, but cash flow generation of some companies fell short of consensus estimates.
Is your energy investment strategy built on the best evidence?
As the energy sector transforms, capital and investment plans must adapt too. Is it time to review your strategies in light of global utilities investment trends? Our latest Power transactions and trends report offers insight and evidence into the major themes and emerging trends driving global power and utilities M&A. Updated quarterly, the report delivers deep insights into each major region.
EY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlook Q4 2018EY
A range of upside forces have shifted market sentiment and some parties are talking of $90, or even $100/bbl oil in the short to medium term. Our insights on the outlook for the global oil price in Q4 2018.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
The theme for this quarter is resilience. A 6% supply outage in September was unable to push Brent prices above US$70/bbl. Demand concerns, driven by slowing world economic growth and the need to decarbonize, quickly retook the stage despite output from Venezuela and Iran being hindered by political turmoil and international sanctions.
Technology enhancements are a significant contributor to the market’s sanguine attitude towards supply disruption. Operators are able to produce greater volumes, quicker, and at a lower cost. That trend can only continue.
LNG markets continue to mature as traders play an increasing role in directing cargoes and setting prices. The pipeline for LNG projects remains healthy as market participants aim to establish a position in a market that is seen as the best opportunity for growth in oil and gas.
EY Price Point: Global Oil and Gas Market Outlook - Q3EY
The oil and gas sector is constantly changing. Increasingly uncertain energy policies, geopolitical complexities, cost management and climate change all present significant challenges. EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector supports a global network of more than 10,000 oil and gas professionals with extensive experience in providing assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services across the upstream, midstream, downstream and oil field sub-sectors.
Analyst themes of quarterly oil and gas earnings Q4 2018EY
The oil and gas industry started the fourth quarter of 2018 with high hopes. Oil prices had risen in the last half of the third quarter and indicators were pointing upward. As is often the case, events took over and oil prices erased all the gains made since the beginning of 2017.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As we close the second quarter of 2020, in most of Europe and Asia, the first (and hopefully last) wave of the COVID-19 crisis appears to be abating. In the parts of the US where the virus hit early, the profile has largely matched Europe’s, while in other parts, the urge to reopen businesses has trumped the desire to contain the virus and uncertainty looms. In the developing world, the crisis has just begun, but without the economic headroom and resources necessary to contain it. As the crisis unfolded, the effect on oil and gas demand has been predictable but difficult to gauge precisely and therefore difficult to manage.
Oil prices have crept up steadily as production has been curtailed through coordinated action (OPEC+) and because of economic reality (unconventional oil in North America). That trend has been subject to momentary spasms when bad news hit the market. It would be understandable if traders were nervous, and it seems that they are. Although nowhere near where it was at the peak of the crisis, option implied volatility is still at historically high levels. Gas markets, without the benefit of coordination on the supply side, continue to deal with the market implications of storage at or near capacity. Interfuel competition in power generation has always provided something of a floor, but those lows have been, and will continue to be, tested.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 April 2021EY
The theme for this quarter is governed. Apparent market balance at prices that could be sustainable is the product of calculated choices by market leaders and the cooperation of those who follow them. Economics played their customary role as well, with capital scarcity in North America taking about 2 million barrels per day out of the market, about half of the remaining gap in demand. While inventories are close to their pre-COVID-19 levels, there is still uncertainty. The resolution of the pandemic is in sight, but timing is unclear. Vaccine distribution in the US is having an impact but Europe is struggling to contain a third wave of infections. The taps have opened on economic stimulus, but it remains to be seen if policymakers have done enough or if they have overshot the mark.
The shape of the crude oil forward curve has fundamentally changed since the end of the last quarter. In late December of last year, the Brent forward curve was gradually increasing while today, the curve is backwardated. This is a clear sign that the market sees a short-term dynamic that is disconnected from the medium-to-long-term fundamentals. The lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic remains to be seen. While many have opined that COVID-19 marks a turning point in energy transition, the IEA recently released a five-year forecast of oil demand that shows steady growth, albeit at rates that are below historical expectations.
Gas markets are a paradox. At the Henry Hub and at LNG destinations, demand grows, investment lags and prices will occasionally attract attention. Traders, so far though, are unconvinced and futures prices don’t indicate imminent scarcity at any link in the value chain.
The theme for this quarter is inorganic. Although prices climbed in the fourth quarter as the balance of supply and demand tilted in favour of demand, OPEC + restraint was fundamental.
The market is conscious of downside pressures that loom. OPEC + has announced production cuts through to the end of the first quarter. Beyond the first quarter, there is a risk that OPEC + grows weary of supporting the market and reverts to a strategy of growing production, protecting market share and placing pressure on the economics of unconventional producers. Production growth in Brazil and Norway has the potential to consume a significant portion of demand growth expected in 2020. Whether, or the extent to which, US shale output growth continues despite escalating financial strain across the E&P sector will be key in determining whether OPEC + cuts will be sufficient to balance the market in 2020.
In the longer-term, focus remains on the energy mix of the future and its impact on the demand for petroleum products. A number of significant uncertainties remain, including electric vehicle (EV) penetration. EY’s ‘Fueling the Future’ analyzes the outlook under four distinct scenarios. The analysis shows that an inflection point in EV penetration is required by 2022 if the terms of the Paris Accord are to be met.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
We enter 2021 on a note of cautious optimism for global health, the world economy, and the oil and gas markets. The first weeks of December brought approval in the US and the UK of the first of several COVID-19 vaccines. The speed with which vaccine development occurred is unprecedented, but certainly welcome. In the weeks following the early November announcement of 90+% effectiveness by the manufacturer of the first approved vaccine, the price of WTI crude oil increased by US$10/bbl to US$48/bbl, the highest level since early March. Sustainability hasn’t returned yet, and whatever time it takes to get the world to normal, it will take even longer for normalization within the oil and gas markets. Inventories remain at historically high levels and, optimistically, it will take until April before inventory returns to levels observed in the preceding five years. That’s an estimate, and there has obviously been some difficulty properly calibrating the expectations of how balance will return and how long it will take. In late November, OPEC met to adjust its output plans because of the anemic rebound in demand. In mid-December, the IEA lowered its demand forecast for 2021 due mostly to continued sluggishness in aviation fuel demand.
A mild winter has interrupted a recovery in North American natural gas prices after a run-up motivated by curtailed capital expenditures, upstream activity and production. After an initial meltdown, with cargo cancellations and dramatic price reversal, LNG markets have made a remarkable comeback, and the spread between Asia and Henry Hub has reached a level we haven’t seen in almost three years. It may be the case that interruption in FIDs has brought us to the cusp of a balance that can support reliable returns.
Quarterly analyst themes of oil and gas earningsEY
As it almost always is, oil and gas profitability was driven by crude oil, refined product and natural gas market conditions in Q2 2019. Oil prices seesawed, rising steadily during the first half of the quarter, falling during most of the second half of the quarter, before rising again at the end.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook (Q4, October 2020)EY
Oil and gas prices have recovered steadily from their lows and are relatively stable, but that stability is supported by the combination of purposeful withholding of production by oil-producing countries and economic stress on upstream independents. Oil prices closed the quarter roughly where they started it, while refining spreads were down slightly. LNG spreads were substantially higher at the end of Q3 than they were at the beginning of the quarter but are still roughly half of what is generally thought of as sustainable.
Going forward, the market will be looking closely at how the economy and demand respond to new developments with respect to a potential COVID-19 vaccine and the US election.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As the last quarter of the second pandemic year draws to a close, we continue to see heightened contrast
between the medical and economic points of view. While COVID-19 cases are close to their all-time highs, so
are equity prices, and a leading investment bank declared (on 2 December, 2021 after the Omicron outbreak in South Africa) that it was “optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022.” When news of the variant hit in
late November, the markets were rocked by the prospect of yet another round of local mobility restrictions and
an interrupted return to normal international travel patterns, on top of the Biden Administration’s announced
release of 50 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So far though, with OPEC
standing by its planned gradual return to normal production, oil prices have stabilized, albeit below where they
were in mid-November. Henry Hub prices, always at the mercy of the weather, responded predictably to a
warmer-than-normal early winter in the US, falling from US$6.60/MMBtu in early October to below
US$4.00/MMBtu by mid-December. In Europe and Asia, following a short reprieve at the start of the quarter,
piped natural gas prices have spiked again on concerns triggered by Russian troop buildups on the Ukraine
border and uncertainties surrounding the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Looking forward, OPEC and the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) in their last forecasts of the year both projected that 2022 oil demand would
be above what we saw in 2019. Although time will tell if those forecasts are realized and other events could
intervene, the response to new virus outbreaks is well-practiced and the trade-off between public health and
economic reality has tipped toward a cautiously optimistic view.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q319EY
The theme for this quarter is consistency: in the significant trends impacting prices, at least. The forces that impacted oil prices in the second quarter were the same as those that have impacted prices quarter after quarter for the past several years. Surging North American production counterbalanced by OPEC+ production cuts has kept prices in a fairly narrow range. The market has become remarkably resilient. For some time now, long-dated oil futures have traded at a price very close to the market’s view of the break-even price of unconventional oil in North America.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q2 2019 | Region: Permian BasinMercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
The theme for this quarter is resilience. A 6% supply outage in September was unable to push Brent prices above US$70/bbl. Demand concerns, driven by slowing world economic growth and the need to decarbonize, quickly retook the stage despite output from Venezuela and Iran being hindered by political turmoil and international sanctions.
Technology enhancements are a significant contributor to the market’s sanguine attitude towards supply disruption. Operators are able to produce greater volumes, quicker, and at a lower cost. That trend can only continue.
LNG markets continue to mature as traders play an increasing role in directing cargoes and setting prices. The pipeline for LNG projects remains healthy as market participants aim to establish a position in a market that is seen as the best opportunity for growth in oil and gas.
EY Price Point: Global Oil and Gas Market Outlook - Q3EY
The oil and gas sector is constantly changing. Increasingly uncertain energy policies, geopolitical complexities, cost management and climate change all present significant challenges. EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector supports a global network of more than 10,000 oil and gas professionals with extensive experience in providing assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services across the upstream, midstream, downstream and oil field sub-sectors.
Analyst themes of quarterly oil and gas earnings Q4 2018EY
The oil and gas industry started the fourth quarter of 2018 with high hopes. Oil prices had risen in the last half of the third quarter and indicators were pointing upward. As is often the case, events took over and oil prices erased all the gains made since the beginning of 2017.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As we close the second quarter of 2020, in most of Europe and Asia, the first (and hopefully last) wave of the COVID-19 crisis appears to be abating. In the parts of the US where the virus hit early, the profile has largely matched Europe’s, while in other parts, the urge to reopen businesses has trumped the desire to contain the virus and uncertainty looms. In the developing world, the crisis has just begun, but without the economic headroom and resources necessary to contain it. As the crisis unfolded, the effect on oil and gas demand has been predictable but difficult to gauge precisely and therefore difficult to manage.
Oil prices have crept up steadily as production has been curtailed through coordinated action (OPEC+) and because of economic reality (unconventional oil in North America). That trend has been subject to momentary spasms when bad news hit the market. It would be understandable if traders were nervous, and it seems that they are. Although nowhere near where it was at the peak of the crisis, option implied volatility is still at historically high levels. Gas markets, without the benefit of coordination on the supply side, continue to deal with the market implications of storage at or near capacity. Interfuel competition in power generation has always provided something of a floor, but those lows have been, and will continue to be, tested.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 April 2021EY
The theme for this quarter is governed. Apparent market balance at prices that could be sustainable is the product of calculated choices by market leaders and the cooperation of those who follow them. Economics played their customary role as well, with capital scarcity in North America taking about 2 million barrels per day out of the market, about half of the remaining gap in demand. While inventories are close to their pre-COVID-19 levels, there is still uncertainty. The resolution of the pandemic is in sight, but timing is unclear. Vaccine distribution in the US is having an impact but Europe is struggling to contain a third wave of infections. The taps have opened on economic stimulus, but it remains to be seen if policymakers have done enough or if they have overshot the mark.
The shape of the crude oil forward curve has fundamentally changed since the end of the last quarter. In late December of last year, the Brent forward curve was gradually increasing while today, the curve is backwardated. This is a clear sign that the market sees a short-term dynamic that is disconnected from the medium-to-long-term fundamentals. The lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic remains to be seen. While many have opined that COVID-19 marks a turning point in energy transition, the IEA recently released a five-year forecast of oil demand that shows steady growth, albeit at rates that are below historical expectations.
Gas markets are a paradox. At the Henry Hub and at LNG destinations, demand grows, investment lags and prices will occasionally attract attention. Traders, so far though, are unconvinced and futures prices don’t indicate imminent scarcity at any link in the value chain.
The theme for this quarter is inorganic. Although prices climbed in the fourth quarter as the balance of supply and demand tilted in favour of demand, OPEC + restraint was fundamental.
The market is conscious of downside pressures that loom. OPEC + has announced production cuts through to the end of the first quarter. Beyond the first quarter, there is a risk that OPEC + grows weary of supporting the market and reverts to a strategy of growing production, protecting market share and placing pressure on the economics of unconventional producers. Production growth in Brazil and Norway has the potential to consume a significant portion of demand growth expected in 2020. Whether, or the extent to which, US shale output growth continues despite escalating financial strain across the E&P sector will be key in determining whether OPEC + cuts will be sufficient to balance the market in 2020.
In the longer-term, focus remains on the energy mix of the future and its impact on the demand for petroleum products. A number of significant uncertainties remain, including electric vehicle (EV) penetration. EY’s ‘Fueling the Future’ analyzes the outlook under four distinct scenarios. The analysis shows that an inflection point in EV penetration is required by 2022 if the terms of the Paris Accord are to be met.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
We enter 2021 on a note of cautious optimism for global health, the world economy, and the oil and gas markets. The first weeks of December brought approval in the US and the UK of the first of several COVID-19 vaccines. The speed with which vaccine development occurred is unprecedented, but certainly welcome. In the weeks following the early November announcement of 90+% effectiveness by the manufacturer of the first approved vaccine, the price of WTI crude oil increased by US$10/bbl to US$48/bbl, the highest level since early March. Sustainability hasn’t returned yet, and whatever time it takes to get the world to normal, it will take even longer for normalization within the oil and gas markets. Inventories remain at historically high levels and, optimistically, it will take until April before inventory returns to levels observed in the preceding five years. That’s an estimate, and there has obviously been some difficulty properly calibrating the expectations of how balance will return and how long it will take. In late November, OPEC met to adjust its output plans because of the anemic rebound in demand. In mid-December, the IEA lowered its demand forecast for 2021 due mostly to continued sluggishness in aviation fuel demand.
A mild winter has interrupted a recovery in North American natural gas prices after a run-up motivated by curtailed capital expenditures, upstream activity and production. After an initial meltdown, with cargo cancellations and dramatic price reversal, LNG markets have made a remarkable comeback, and the spread between Asia and Henry Hub has reached a level we haven’t seen in almost three years. It may be the case that interruption in FIDs has brought us to the cusp of a balance that can support reliable returns.
Quarterly analyst themes of oil and gas earningsEY
As it almost always is, oil and gas profitability was driven by crude oil, refined product and natural gas market conditions in Q2 2019. Oil prices seesawed, rising steadily during the first half of the quarter, falling during most of the second half of the quarter, before rising again at the end.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook (Q4, October 2020)EY
Oil and gas prices have recovered steadily from their lows and are relatively stable, but that stability is supported by the combination of purposeful withholding of production by oil-producing countries and economic stress on upstream independents. Oil prices closed the quarter roughly where they started it, while refining spreads were down slightly. LNG spreads were substantially higher at the end of Q3 than they were at the beginning of the quarter but are still roughly half of what is generally thought of as sustainable.
Going forward, the market will be looking closely at how the economy and demand respond to new developments with respect to a potential COVID-19 vaccine and the US election.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As the last quarter of the second pandemic year draws to a close, we continue to see heightened contrast
between the medical and economic points of view. While COVID-19 cases are close to their all-time highs, so
are equity prices, and a leading investment bank declared (on 2 December, 2021 after the Omicron outbreak in South Africa) that it was “optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022.” When news of the variant hit in
late November, the markets were rocked by the prospect of yet another round of local mobility restrictions and
an interrupted return to normal international travel patterns, on top of the Biden Administration’s announced
release of 50 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So far though, with OPEC
standing by its planned gradual return to normal production, oil prices have stabilized, albeit below where they
were in mid-November. Henry Hub prices, always at the mercy of the weather, responded predictably to a
warmer-than-normal early winter in the US, falling from US$6.60/MMBtu in early October to below
US$4.00/MMBtu by mid-December. In Europe and Asia, following a short reprieve at the start of the quarter,
piped natural gas prices have spiked again on concerns triggered by Russian troop buildups on the Ukraine
border and uncertainties surrounding the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Looking forward, OPEC and the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) in their last forecasts of the year both projected that 2022 oil demand would
be above what we saw in 2019. Although time will tell if those forecasts are realized and other events could
intervene, the response to new virus outbreaks is well-practiced and the trade-off between public health and
economic reality has tipped toward a cautiously optimistic view.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q319EY
The theme for this quarter is consistency: in the significant trends impacting prices, at least. The forces that impacted oil prices in the second quarter were the same as those that have impacted prices quarter after quarter for the past several years. Surging North American production counterbalanced by OPEC+ production cuts has kept prices in a fairly narrow range. The market has become remarkably resilient. For some time now, long-dated oil futures have traded at a price very close to the market’s view of the break-even price of unconventional oil in North America.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q2 2019 | Region: Permian BasinMercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
The theme for this quarter is momentum meets uncertainty. The upward trend in crude oil, natural gas, LNG and refined product prices that began in Q1 continued into Q2. Crude oil markets began the quarter just below $100/bbl and have closed below that level on only two days since late April. As we begin Q3, there are increasing concerns about the health of the global economy and how that might affect oil and gas demand.
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The sustainability of trading profits has always been questioned. Volatility has returned to pre-crisis levels and, absent more disruption, the size of the opportunity will shrink.
See this week's edition of EY Price Point
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Exploration and Production | Q3 2018 | Segment:...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Exploration and Production newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
The theme for this quarter is apprehension. In September, the US Federal Reserve announced a third 75 basis point increase in the federal funds rate. In the aftermath, the two-year treasury rate reached the highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis and the spread between two and ten-year rates went below negative 50basis points for the first time since the early eighties. Equity markets have begun to price in the likelihood of a recession and, if history is any indication, the impact on oil markets could be profound.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2, April 2020EY
The first quarter of this year has seen some extraordinary events. As if chronic oversupply, prices stuck below sustainable levels, the looming energy transition, and investor pressure to decarbonize weren’t enough, our industry now faces a dramatic, but hopefully temporary, downturn in demand as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak.
VF: Exploration and Production: Q4 2018 | Region Focus: AppalachiaMercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $42.68/b in July, representing the first decline in five months. Lower-than-expected demand, high refined product stocks, and rising crude supply were the factors behind the $3.16 drop. ICE Brent ended down $3.39 at $46.53/b, while Nymex WTI fell $4.05 to $44.80/b. Speculators cut long positions further this month in all markets. The ICE Brent-WTI spread widened to $1.75/b in Brent’s favour during July.
Similar to EY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlook - 1Q19 (20)
Quarterly analyst themes of oil and gas earnings, Q1 2022EY
Financial questions continued to attract the most attention of the analyst community, with major focus on how companies will respond to the war in Ukraine, elevated commodity prices and improved cash flows. Strategic questions focused on how the changing geopolitical environment will affect capital allocation in the short and long term. Operationally, all eyes were on the capacity of companies to step up asset utilization and bring new projects to market quickly. Explore the latest EY quarterly analysts themes.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 | April 2022EY
The theme for this quarter is rearrangement. The loss, or potential loss, of Russian oil and gas supplies is forcing producers, refiners and traders to rethink the flow of crude oil and refined products from the wellhead to the gas pump in light of sanctions, potential sanctions and the risk of reputational damage. Countries, companies and consumers will all be searching for ways to adapt, and the outcome of the race to bring alternatives to market could alter the global energy landscape for years to come.
It is likely crude oil and LNG prices will remain elevated for some time. The process of diverting Russian oil through countries unwilling to sanction it will take time and there is little indication OPEC members are willing (or able) to increase production to make up for the loss of Russian crude. Spare capacity sat at 3.7 mbpd at the end of 2021, just above where it was in January 2020. Currently, sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian production (about 3 mbpd below their peak) could fill the gap, but political and commercial obstacles remain. At today’s prices, US shale production is attractive, but the fastest the industry has been able to grow is between 1mbpd and 2mbpd per year. The LNG infrastructure was already stretched before the war in Ukraine and there is little prosect of finding new supplies soon.
As the largest buyer of Russian energy, Europe will be the epicenter. There is a deeply embedded bias there in favor for renewable energy, and the current crisis is certain to result in an all-out effort to accelerate the build-out of wind and solar power. The capacity to add new green energy is limited though by the project pipeline and supply chains for solar panels and wind turbines, and it is likely that much of the shortfall will be made up with the new LNG infrastructure.
Zahl der Gewinnwarnungen steigt auf RekordniveauEY
Immer mehr deutsche börsennotierte Unternehmen müssen ihre eigenen Umsatz- oder Gewinnprognosen nach unten korrigieren. Im ersten Quartal stieg die Zahl der Prognosekorrekturen auf ein neues Rekordniveau: Insgesamt 77 Gewinn- oder Umsatzwarnungen wurden registriert.
Die Corona-Krise trifft auch die Versicherungsbranche mit voller Wucht. Die Versicherer rechnen mit weniger Neugeschäft. Jeder Fünfte mit Personalabbau und Prämienerhöhungen.
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how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
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how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
2. Page 2 Q1 | January 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 2
Gary Donald Andy Brogan
EY Global Oil & Gas EY Global Oil & Gas
Assurance Leader Transaction Advisory Services Leader
gdonald@uk.ey.com abrogan@uk.ey.com
Q1 overview
World oil markets continue to surprise us by doing things that, in retrospect, aren’t surprising.
The market left 3Q18 full of optimism fueled by expectations of Iranian supply interruption and
muted North American supply growth. That optimism was overturned in 4Q18. The ability of
governments to change policy (US waivers on Iran sanctions), the capital markets’
unpredictable willingness to fund struggling businesses in hope of a better tomorrow (North
American shale), the power of dominant suppliers to influence prices (OPEC and Russia) and
the risk of a slowing economy loom large.
3. Page 3 Q1 | January 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 3
The theme for this quarter is reversal . Following a period of sustained growth throughout the
first 10 months of 2018, the oil price recovery began to reverse in the fourth quarter. With
anticipated decline in Iranian output underpinning the oil price recovery, the market was caught
off guard by the US Government’s decision to issue waivers. US production continues to grow
(notwithstanding questions about returns) and OPEC, for a while at least, opened the taps
before conceding to production cuts effective from January.
Crude prices climbed in January as the market noted the effect of OPEC and Russia
production cuts and muted Iranian exports despite waivers granted.
?
Q1 theme
► Will Iranian sanctions eventually have the effect that the market predicted?
► How many times will OPEC be willing to curtail its production to balance the world markets?
► Has confidence in the oil price recovery been wounded enough to have a sustained impact
on capital spending in North America?
4. Page 4
Page 4 Q1 | January 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
OPEC and Russia planned to make up for
supply shortages left by the impact of
sanctions on Iran. After waivers were issued,
OPEC and Russia announced an agreement
to curtail production. Will the group continue to
concede to growing US production by drawing
back its own output?
Confidence
in the world
economy
In recent years, low interest rates and the free
flow of money have enabled steady economic
growth, strong energy demand and investment
in energy infrastructure.
Tighter money and the risk of escalating trade
wars are now placing demand growth under
question.
Trends
Historically, sanctions and sanction relief have
had a big impact on oil markets. The markets’
expected impact of US sanctions on Iran
buoyed prices throughout the first three
quarters of 2018 only for gains to reverse
following the issue of waivers in the final
quarter.
US
sanctions
on Iran
OPEC and
Russia
North America’s return to growth in 4Q18
delivered around 800,000 bpd of new
production to market. Returns approached
sustainable levels in 3Q18, but cash flows
were marginal. We’re now left questioning
whether the recent fall in crude prices will
affect capital budgets and production growth.
North
American
shale
5. Page 5
Page 5 Q1 | January 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Market fundamentals
► Brent and WTI averaged $68.76 and $59.97 per bbl, respectively, during the
fourth quarter. Average prices in the fourth quarter represent a decline of 8%
and 14%, respectively.
► Both benchmarks climbed in September before suffering a steep decline as
the market was caught off guard by the US Government’s decision to issue
waivers to major off-takers of Iranian crude.
► North American production growth returned and macro-economic concerns
dented confidence in demand growth. OPEC and Russia continue to concede
to growing US production, agreeing to production cuts effective from January.
► US waivers will not last forever but neither will OPEC and Russia’s production
cuts. The search for a new equilibrium has started.
Oil gains reversed in 4Q18 North American growth leaves market oversupplied
► The important levers impacting global oil supply and demand remain the same:
demand growth, OPEC and Russia production strategies and North American
supply.
► In previous quarters, soaring North American production was offset by demand
growth while OPEC held production flat in an effort to balance the market.
Output elsewhere will remain steady, if not in natural decline, until the flow of
capital returns to deepwater projects.
► During 4Q18, the dynamic changed. OPEC countries increased output, pre-
empting a drop in Iranian output only for waivers to be issued at the last minute.
Prices fell, leaving OPEC and Russia to (yet again) curtail supplies in an effort
to stabilize the market. Time will tell if this round of price pressure will be
enough to dampen North American investment.
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
02/07/2018 02/08/2018 02/09/2018 02/10/2018 02/11/2018 02/12/2018
$/bbl
Brent
WTI
Source: EIA Source: IEA
(1.20)
(0.80)
(0.40)
-
0.40
0.80
1.20
Starting
balance
Demand
growth
OPEC North
America
Other End balance
millionbarrelsperday
Movement to oversupply Movement to undersupply
6. Page 6
Page 6 Q1 | January 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
► Crude oil production in North America continues to perplex the market. After a
pause in 3Q18, there was an upward surge in the middle of 4Q18, followed by
another pause in the last part of the quarter.
► North American operators’ return on capital began to approach sustainable
levels in 3Q18, a state of affairs that is certain to reverse as fourth-quarter
results are reported given a fall in prices.
► Free cash flow continued to elude around half of North American upstream
operators in 3Q18. Although many companies have operating cash sufficient
to fund capital investment, most continue to require external capital.
► Once again, we are forced to question how long capital allocation and
production growth are sustainable in the absence of stable free cash flow.
Market fundamentals
► US sanctions on Iran became effective in November. In preparation,
significant off-takers wound down imports of Iranian crude throughout the
year, reducing global oil supply and supporting the oil price recovery.
► With an objective of reducing prices at the pump, President Trump issued
waivers in the fourth quarter in order to reverse growing crude prices. Exempt
countries include China, India, South Korea and Japan, representing a group
that accounted for approximately 80% of Iran’s pre-sanctions exports. Waivers
run for a period of 180 days.
► The market reacted (perhaps overreacted) instantaneously to the issuance of
waivers. Although data is limited, Iranian imports have remained well below
pre-sanction levels in recent months. The market will learn more as to the true
extent of exempt imports in 1Q19.
Iran output and waivers
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg Source: EIA
Free cash flow continues to elude North American operators
(300)
(200)
(100)
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
$m
3Q18 free cash flow of North American upstream operators
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
May 18 September 18 October 18 November 18
bbl/d
Iranian crude exports by destination
China India Japan South Korea Other
Pre-announcement Post-announcement of US sanctions on Iran being re-imposed
7. Page 7
Page 7 Q1 | January 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Market fundamentals
Macro economics weighing on demand
Source: The Federal Reserve System
► The US gas market remains relatively stable. Cold weather in recent months
boosted gas demand for heating and supported prices. Strong growth in
domestic gas production is expected to place downward pressure on US gas
prices.
► Moderate winters in well-supplied Asian and European markets have led to a
softening of regional gas and LNG prices. Gas shortages that resulted in price
spikes similar to those of last year are unlikely to recur as China and other
markets are well stocked.
► Increasing LNG spreads and strong growth in Asian demand have renewed
interest in sanctioning new supply. FIDs on LNG projects are trickling through
and are expected to gain momentum over the coming months.
Source: EY analysis of data from Thomson Reuters Datastream
Asian LNG demand triggering FIDs
► Since the world financial crisis began in 2008, central banks across the world
have flooded the banking system with cash. Short-term interest rates hovered
near 0% for some time. Interest rates have gradually increased, raising
recession risk.
► Trade tensions between the US and China continue unabated. No new tariffs
have been announced recently, but there are signs of a slowing Chinese
economy. Automobile sales in China fell for the first time in more than 20
years in 2018, and slowing sales in China have led US companies to issue
profit warnings.
► A growing economy guarantees steady, predictable oil and gas demand
growth. Economic contraction, particularly in developing countries where
energy demand growth is concentrated, would have the opposite effect.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
$/mmbtu
UK NBP Henry Hub LNG Asia FOB
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan-2014 Jan-2015 Jan-2016 Jan-2017 Jan-2018
%
Historical interest rates
LIBOR US Federal funds
8. Page 8
Page 8 Q1 | January 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Brent futures
Brent futures fell in line with the
decline in spot prices throughout the
fourth quarter. Similarly, we have
seen an uptick in January.
Liquidity of the futures curve falls
rapidly beyond 2020, and therefore
the views of banks/brokers and
consultants are considered more
appropriate sources of determining or
challenging a long-term price
assumption.
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Jan-2018 Jan-2019 Jan-2020 Jan-2021 Jan-2022 Jan-2023 Jan-2024
$/bbl
Historical Brent Brent futures - 31 December 2018
Brent futures - 10 January 2019 Brent futures - 31 October 2018
9. Page 9
Page 9 Q1 | January 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Oil price outlook
Brent:
Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges and
averages
WTI:
Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges and
averages
For both benchmarks, brokers
predict (on average) marginally
higher oil prices in 2019 and 2020.
The trend is reversed in the
midterm.
Consultants focus primarily on the
analysis of a long-term sustainable oil
price, while the banks/brokers balance
their views on the basis of current
market conditions.
Despite the fall in oil prices noted in
4Q18, the views of market participants
remain relatively unchanged. However,
we note high relative forecasting
uncertainty given the proven ability of
identified risk factors to move the price
significantly in a short period of time.
Consultants’ forecasts result in
averages of US$78.7/bbl and
US$74.4/bbl vs. banks’/brokers’
averages of US$67.4/bbl and
US$61.7/bbl for Brent and WTI,
respectively in 2023.
This data is effective as of
11 January 2019.
US$67.4 US$78.7 US$61.7 US$74.4Brent:
Average price
forecast in 2023
WTI:
Average price
forecast in 2023
Banks/brokers Consultants Banks/brokers Consultants
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports, consensus economics, consultants’ website
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
$perbarrel
Bank/Broker range Consultants range
Bank/Broker average Consultants average
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
$perbarrel
Bank/Broker range Consultants range
Bank/Broker average Consultants average
10. Page 10
Page 10 Q1 | January 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Gas price outlook
Henry Hub:
Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges
and averages
UK NBP:
Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges and
averages
For Henry Hub, consultants forecast
(on average) higher prices than
banks/brokers. The NBP forecasts of
banks and brokers exceed that of
consultants.
Banks’ and brokers’ view of the outlook
for Henry Hub is essentially flat with the
increase throughout the forecast period,
representing little more than inflation.
In contrast, consultants’ estimates reflect
a steady upward trend, reflecting a view
on demand growth and production
economics.
Estimates for UK NBP are scarce with
only 5 and 3 data points available from
banks/brokers and consultants,
respectively.
This data is effective as of
11 January 2019.
US$3.8 GBP51.2 GBP58.7UK NBP:
Average price
forecast in 2022
Banks/brokers Consultants
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports, consensus economics, consultants’ website
Banks/brokers Consultants
US$3.3Henry Hub:
Average price
forecast in 2023
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
GBppertherm
Bank/Broker range Consultants range
Bank/Broker average Consultants average
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
$permmbtu
Bank/Broker range Consultants range
Bank/Broker average Consultants average
11. Page 11
Page 11 Q1 | January 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Brent oil price estimates
Appendix
Bank/broker 2019 (US$/bbl) 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl)
High 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 83.0
Average 69.0 70.5 71.8 70.5 67.4
Median 69.5 70.0 70.0 70.0 65.0
Low 54.5 52.1 62.0 60.0 58.3
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports
Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics
Consultant 2019 (US$/bbl) 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl)
High 70.0 75.1 85.1 90.7 95.7
Average 63.6 69.8 73.4 76.1 78.7
Median 63.3 68.5 71.5 73.7 75.5
Low 58.8 65.6 66.8 68.6 71.2
This data is effective as of 11 January 2019.
12. Page 12
Page 12 Q1 | January 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
WTI oil price estimates
Appendix
Bank/broker 2019 (US$/bbl) 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl)
High 75.9 81.0 88.0 86.0 70.0
Average 62.2 64.8 66.5 65.3 61.7
Median 63.3 65.6 64.7 64.0 61.2
Low 49.0 48.9 55.5 53.5 53.5
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports
Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics
Consultant 2019 (US$/bbl) 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl)
High 63.0 71.9 81.1 86.7 91.6
Average 56.9 64.6 68.8 71.9 74.4
Median 56.3 63.8 67.6 71.4 72.8
Low 53.4 57.2 58.2 59.7 62.0
This data is effective as of 11 January 2019.
13. Page 13
Page 13 Q1 | January 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Henry Hub gas price estimates
Appendix
Bank/broker 2019 (US$/MMBtu) 2020 (US$/MMBtu) 2021 (US$/MMBtu) 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu)
High 3.7 4.3 4.2 3.8 4.0
Average 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.3
Median 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.3
Low 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports
* Brokers have reported figures in $/mcf. We have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu.
Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics
Consultant 2019 (US$/MMBtu) 2020 (US$/MMBtu) 2021 (US$/MMBtu) 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu)
High 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.4
Average 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8
Median 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6
Low 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6
This data is effective as of 11 January 2019.
14. Page 14
Page 14 Q1 | January 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
NBP gas price estimates
Appendix
Bank/broker 2019 (GBP/therm) 2020 (GBP/therm) 2021 (GBP/therm) 2022 (GBP/therm) 2023 (GBP/therm)
High 60.0 65.2 56.3 54.0 53.4
Average 56.9 55.3 52.9 52.8 51.2
Median 56.3 54.0 53.4 53.4 51.2
Low 53.4 50.0 48.0 51.0 49.0
Source: Bloomberg, Banks’/Brokers’ reports
*Jefferies has reported figures in $/mcf. We have used exchange rate forecast by Jefferies for USD to GBP conversion and an mcf to mmbtu conversion ratio of 1.037.
Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics
*Oxford Economics has reported figures in US$/MMBtu. We have used exchange rate forecast by Oxford Economics from USD to GBP conversion.
** GLJ has reported figures in US$/MMBtu. We have used exchange rate forecast by GLJ for USD to GBP conversion.
Consultant 2019 (GBP/therm) 2020 (GBP/therm) 2021 (GBP/therm) 2022 (GBP/therm) 2023 (GBP/therm)
High 63.8 60.8 60.0 61.2 62.4
Average 60.0 57.6 57.2 57.6 58.7
Median 60.0 60.0 59.6 58.5 58.5
Low 56.1 52.0 51.9 53.2 55.2
This data is effective as of 11 January 2019.