The document discusses expanding on the Cynefin knowledge framework by exploring additional domains and transitions between domains. It proposes adding "ambiguous," "affirmative," and "emergent" domains. It also discusses different types of coherence that can occur between domains, such as intentional, dispositional, and retrospective coherence. Further, it examines how knowledge is formed through interactions between domains like moving from critique to emergence.
Harnessing Disagreement for Event SemanticsLora Aroyo
http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-902/paper_4.pdf
The focus of this paper is on how events can be detected & extracted
from natural language text, and how those are represented for use on the semantic web. We draw an inspiration from the similarity between crowdsourcing approaches for tagging and text annotation task for ground truth of events. Thus,
we propose a novel approach that harnesses the disagreement between the human annotators by defining a framework to capture and analyze the nature of the
disagreement. We expect two novel results from this approach. On the one hand,
achieving a new way of measuring ground truth (performance), and on the other
hand identifying a new set of semantic features for learning in event extraction.
Thinking about Governance and Constraints. A followup to Dave Snowden's twitter posting “We need to stop talking about governance and start talking about constraint management”
Harnessing Disagreement for Event SemanticsLora Aroyo
http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-902/paper_4.pdf
The focus of this paper is on how events can be detected & extracted
from natural language text, and how those are represented for use on the semantic web. We draw an inspiration from the similarity between crowdsourcing approaches for tagging and text annotation task for ground truth of events. Thus,
we propose a novel approach that harnesses the disagreement between the human annotators by defining a framework to capture and analyze the nature of the
disagreement. We expect two novel results from this approach. On the one hand,
achieving a new way of measuring ground truth (performance), and on the other
hand identifying a new set of semantic features for learning in event extraction.
Thinking about Governance and Constraints. A followup to Dave Snowden's twitter posting “We need to stop talking about governance and start talking about constraint management”
A presentation that I did on 02-Nov-2020 within the "Seminar in Communication Theories and Literature" course under the supervision of Dr. Shahira Fahmy @ The American University in Cairo. Dr. Everette Rogers is inspirational and Innovator himself!
Presentation consists of the core theory of diffusion of innovation followed by 3 case studies :
1) Diffusion of tetra cycline in the healthcare system and the effect of social factors on the same
2) Diffusion of Atorvastatin in healthcare system
3) Diffusion of Prozac in healthcare system and the dark side of pharma industry
Adoption of an innovation, a change, a new technology is hard. There are some fundamental ways to support changes in systematic and sustainable ways to achieve transformation.
Dealing with complexity in development (research) projectsEwen Le Borgne
Originally posted on the ILRI slideshare (http://www.slideshare.net/ILRI/presentations), this is a presentation I gave for a training workshop on the facilitation of multi-stakeholder processes for the project EAU4Food.
Conversation, Observational Learning, and Informational CascadesDavid Hirshleifer
We offer a model in which sequences of individuals often converge upon poor decisions and are prone to fads, despite communication of the payoff outcomes from past choices. This reflects both direct and indirect action-based information externalities. In contrast with previous cascades literature, cascades here are spontaneously dislodged and in general have a probability less than one of lasting forever. Furthermore, the ability of individuals to communicate can reduce average decision accuracy and welfare.
Latest version of the paper is "Taking the Road Less Traveled by: Does Conversation Eradicate Pernicious Cascades?," Cao, H. Henry, Han, Bing and Hirshleifer, David A., http://ssrn.com/abstract=422180
The pandemic has had a significant impact on the motivation and health of organisations. Individuals and teams are tired, unsure, fatigued, and increasingly more polarised than ever before. The complexity and severity of the events unfolding around us is further perpetuating the feeling of learned helplessness. A systemic rebuild process is needed for organisations to move towards learned optimism, to return back to a steady and ultimately a thriving state. This presentation will focus on the observations and systems analysis of the current state, and will discuss recovery and rebuild approaches that can help us reach our goals and be optimistic about our future together.
A presentation that I did on 02-Nov-2020 within the "Seminar in Communication Theories and Literature" course under the supervision of Dr. Shahira Fahmy @ The American University in Cairo. Dr. Everette Rogers is inspirational and Innovator himself!
Presentation consists of the core theory of diffusion of innovation followed by 3 case studies :
1) Diffusion of tetra cycline in the healthcare system and the effect of social factors on the same
2) Diffusion of Atorvastatin in healthcare system
3) Diffusion of Prozac in healthcare system and the dark side of pharma industry
Adoption of an innovation, a change, a new technology is hard. There are some fundamental ways to support changes in systematic and sustainable ways to achieve transformation.
Dealing with complexity in development (research) projectsEwen Le Borgne
Originally posted on the ILRI slideshare (http://www.slideshare.net/ILRI/presentations), this is a presentation I gave for a training workshop on the facilitation of multi-stakeholder processes for the project EAU4Food.
Conversation, Observational Learning, and Informational CascadesDavid Hirshleifer
We offer a model in which sequences of individuals often converge upon poor decisions and are prone to fads, despite communication of the payoff outcomes from past choices. This reflects both direct and indirect action-based information externalities. In contrast with previous cascades literature, cascades here are spontaneously dislodged and in general have a probability less than one of lasting forever. Furthermore, the ability of individuals to communicate can reduce average decision accuracy and welfare.
Latest version of the paper is "Taking the Road Less Traveled by: Does Conversation Eradicate Pernicious Cascades?," Cao, H. Henry, Han, Bing and Hirshleifer, David A., http://ssrn.com/abstract=422180
The pandemic has had a significant impact on the motivation and health of organisations. Individuals and teams are tired, unsure, fatigued, and increasingly more polarised than ever before. The complexity and severity of the events unfolding around us is further perpetuating the feeling of learned helplessness. A systemic rebuild process is needed for organisations to move towards learned optimism, to return back to a steady and ultimately a thriving state. This presentation will focus on the observations and systems analysis of the current state, and will discuss recovery and rebuild approaches that can help us reach our goals and be optimistic about our future together.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Preliminary findings _OECD field visits to ten regions in the TSI EU mining r...OECDregions
Preliminary findings from OECD field visits for the project: Enhancing EU Mining Regional Ecosystems to Support the Green Transition and Secure Mineral Raw Materials Supply.
Monitoring Health for the SDGs - Global Health Statistics 2024 - WHOChristina Parmionova
The 2024 World Health Statistics edition reviews more than 50 health-related indicators from the Sustainable Development Goals and WHO’s Thirteenth General Programme of Work. It also highlights the findings from the Global health estimates 2021, notably the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy and healthy life expectancy.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
RFP for Reno's Community Assistance CenterThis Is Reno
Property appraisals completed in May for downtown Reno’s Community Assistance and Triage Centers (CAC) reveal that repairing the buildings to bring them back into service would cost an estimated $10.1 million—nearly four times the amount previously reported by city staff.
Donate to charity during this holiday seasonSERUDS INDIA
For people who have money and are philanthropic, there are infinite opportunities to gift a needy person or child a Merry Christmas. Even if you are living on a shoestring budget, you will be surprised at how much you can do.
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-to-donate-to-charity-during-this-holiday-season/
#charityforchildren, #donateforchildren, #donateclothesforchildren, #donatebooksforchildren, #donatetoysforchildren, #sponsorforchildren, #sponsorclothesforchildren, #sponsorbooksforchildren, #sponsortoysforchildren, #seruds, #kurnool
Working with data is a challenge for many organizations. Nonprofits in particular may need to collect and analyze sensitive, incomplete, and/or biased historical data about people. In this talk, Dr. Cori Faklaris of UNC Charlotte provides an overview of current AI capabilities and weaknesses to consider when integrating current AI technologies into the data workflow. The talk is organized around three takeaways: (1) For better or sometimes worse, AI provides you with “infinite interns.” (2) Give people permission & guardrails to learn what works with these “interns” and what doesn’t. (3) Create a roadmap for adding in more AI to assist nonprofit work, along with strategies for bias mitigation.
About Potato, The scientific name of the plant is Solanum tuberosum (L).Christina Parmionova
The potato is a starchy root vegetable native to the Americas that is consumed as a staple food in many parts of the world. Potatoes are tubers of the plant Solanum tuberosum, a perennial in the nightshade family Solanaceae. Wild potato species can be found from the southern United States to southern Chile
Synopsis (short abstract) In December 2023, the UN General Assembly proclaimed 30 May as the International Day of Potato.
About Potato, The scientific name of the plant is Solanum tuberosum (L).
Exploring cynefin transitions v14
1. 12/9/2014
1
Exploring Transitions in the Complex Domain
Expanding upon the Cynefin Knowledge Framework
@tonyjoyce
Working draft v14
@tonyjoyce
2
This is the starting place for my search
12/9/2014
http://www.cognitive-edge.com/blogs/dave/2011/10/a_typology_of_foresight.php
2. 12/9/2014
2
From my blog post on the Transitory Zone
Easy
Unknown
Impossible
Unexpected
Plausible
Deliberate
bluffing, bogey
diplomacy,
soft power,
integrative
negotiation
brinksmanship,
chicken
coercion,
demands
seize opportunity,
early adopters
neglect,
avoidance,
laggards
collusion, Luddites
follow
the crowd,
mainstream
Awareness of dynamic
Ability to manage constraint
Complex
domain
Inauthentic
disorder
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
3
Easy
(Ability to Manage)
Working Across the Transition Zone (shifted 45° to emphasize the baseline)
Disorder Ambiguity Complexity
Unknown
(Unaware,
Hidden)
Plausible (Mainstream)
Deliberate
(Awareness of dynamic)
Plausible (Integrative)
Unknown
(Aware,
Crisis)
Higher Constraints
Lower Constraints
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
4
3. 12/9/2014
3
About Collaboration
•Collaboration is a dispositional coherence
–Intentional coherence is the vector into the complex domain (from higher & lower constraints and ambiguity)
–In retrospective coherence either the cause (intentioned) or disposition (outcome) might be found
–Retrospective coherence can be from ambiguous (intentioned) or random (outcomes) actions
•Collaboration as shown is
–Alignment of Easy-plausible and Impossible-plausible (center vertical in slide 3)
–Recognizable by strange bedfellows and enemy-of-my- enemy narratives
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
5
Remapping into different visual
Easy
7
6
5
Unknown
8
9
4
Impossible
1
2
3
Unexpected
Plausible
Deliberate
Awareness
of dynamic
Ability to
manage
constraint
Complex
domain
Inauthentic disorder
8
6
2
4
9
7
3
1
5
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
6
4. 12/9/2014
4
The Transitory Zone
Able to Manage (Being Social & Engaging)
Deliberate
(Dynamic awareness, incremental steps)
Death & Rebirth (Disorder)
Managed
Innovation
(Complexity)
Unexpected
Impossible
Easy
Deliberate
Unexpected
Easy
Impossible
Deliberate
Plausible
Unknown
Plausible
Unknown
Ambiguous
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
7
Adding Boundary Cases
•Ritual dissent as a crowdsourcing process
–Process = a partially constrained system pattern
–RD moves from critiques to a collection of stories
•Recipes as formulaic processes
–Intentional coherence, when diligently followed
–Understanding what was produced is usually by retrospective coherence
–Convergence is often premature; this may statistically favor dispositional coherence
–This is basic to “Abduction in the Pareto World”
–also see Dave’s many comments on Sick stigma
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
8
6. 12/9/2014
6
Explanation of Constraints
•The opposite of the exploit is the gamble
–This is constraints as either/or
–Aka constraint-based thinking
–Shown as higher and lower loops in slide 4
•To accept ambiguity is a different case
–This is the middle way to either/and
–It leads in a different direction than above
–It may be a dive through disorder (revealed later)
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
11
Reorientation in the Transitory Zone
Ambiguous
Being Social & Connecting
Deliberate
Death & Rebirth (Disorder)
Managed
Innovation
(Complexity)
Unexpected
Impossible
Easy
Deliberate
Unexpected
Easy
Impossible
Deliberate
Plausible
Unknown
Plausible
Unknown
Retrospective Coherence
Inauthentic or Can’t avoid it
Exploit
Gamble
Unknowable
Emergent
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
12
7. 12/9/2014
7
Orientation to the Cynefin Framework
Disorder
(Social Engagement)
Exploit
(Praxis)
Probe & Respond
Critique
Easy & Recipe
Disorder
Complexity
Complicated
Chaotic
Cynefin
Complexity
Plausible == Exploit
Probe == Gamble
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
13
Orientation in a Knowledge Space
•Exploit is complicated (requires ordered space vice unordered)
•Gamble is chaotic (random, pseudo random, fractals)
•An example of how knowledge may be created
•A brief reflection on my KMWorld 2012 talk
–It was an examination of Typology vrs Taxonomy
–and Boisoit’s i-Space
–Feedback on my talk, it was “too theoretical”
•It concluded with a philosophical idea of belief and knowledge correlating with Cynefin domains
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
14
8. 12/9/2014
8
Knowledge Formation
Easy Recipe
Critique
Casual
Dispositional
Dispositional
Casual
Plausible
Emergent
Reflection barrier
Reflection
Barrier
is Path
Dependency
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
15
@tonyjoyce
16
Concept in my KMWorld 2012 paper
Knowledge (fantasy = too loosely coupled)
Disordered
(too many
constraints)
Simple
(too few
constraints)
Chaotic
Complicated
Complex
Belief
(biased = too highly coupled)
12/9/2014
9. 12/9/2014
9
Five Realms of Knowledge
Complex
Fuzzy
Philosophy
Emergent
Ordered
Inspired by Escher
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
17
Tolerating Ambiguity
•Tolerance of ambiguity leads to 2 new domains
•First, emergence near the limit of cohesion
–Bricolage (see http://www.yiannisgabriel.com/2012/08/on- paragrammes-theory-of- organizations.html?q=bricolage)
–Abduction in Pareto World
•A new layered framework is presented as strata of Ordered, Uncertain and Emergent
–Does this layering illuminate the ABIDE criteria?
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
18
10. 12/9/2014
10
Chaotic
Affirmative
Emergent
Expanding on the Cynefin Framework
Disorder
Ambiguous
Complex
Unknown
Simple
Complicated
Fuzzy set
Ordered set
Uncertain
set
Emergent set
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
19
Within Emergence
•We also have a different domain that originates near ritual dissent, an affirmation of each other
–A new “way of talking”
–Found in the study of hermeneutics
–Also in informatics of classification; see Bowker & Starr’s “Classification and its Consequences”
•Note, the Fuzzy set – chaotic, disorder and unknown – remains indeterminate until history (retrospective) is apparent
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
20
11. 12/9/2014
11
A Dynamic Knowledge Framework
Unknown
Disorder
Chaotic
Affirmative
Ambiguous
Simple
Complicated
Complex
Emergent
Cynefin hook or catastrophic fold
(Act/probe/react) act-sense- respond
Ordered
set
Transitory submodel
Under Tension
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
21
Anticipation (appreciative awareness)
Chaotic
Affirmative
Emergent
The Expanded Cynefin Contexts
Disorder
Ambiguous
Complex
Unknown
Simple
Complicated
Easy
(able to manage)
Deliberate
(awareness of dynamic)
Exploit
Gamble
Intentioned
coherence
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
22
12. 12/9/2014
12
Emergence is a Realm of Tension
•A Tension that is intractable
–It is the distance across the catastrophic fold
–Released in spurts of innovation and paradigm shifts
•It is a permanent feature of social activity because networks are constantly changing
•The change has intensified with modern technology and it is now more visible through this expanded Cynefin framework
•Can be visualized in terms of KM metaphors using C Kurtz’s dimensional form of Cynefin (“eyes”)
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
23
“Three Strands in a Braid: Identity Interaction in Social Software” – Cynthia Kurtz
Catastrophic fold
Emergence
(committing + realizing)
Probe-Sense-Respond
Affirmation
(selecting + relating)
Act-Sense-Respond
Network Building
Network
Pruning
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
24
13. 12/9/2014
13
Conclusions
•Collaboration is a form of dispositional coherence
•Bricolage is a distinct form of dispositional coherence
•Affirmation, i.e. the generative aspect of appreciative inquiry, is dispositional coherence
•As we can see in the Dynamic Knowledge Framework, emergence is different from the intentional complexity of Alice Juarreo’s “Dynamics in Action; Intentional Behavior as a Complex System”
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
25
Future Work
•Articulation of a learning practices boundary case
–Kolb’s reflective learning cycle
–Note this is social constructionism
–It need not be grounded to “reality”
•A model of decisions
–(Needs explanation)
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
26
14. 12/9/2014
14
How is knowledge formed?
Unknown
Disorder
Chaotic
Affirmative
Ambiguous
Simple
Complicated
Complex
Emergent
Kolb learning loop
12/9/2014
@tonyjoyce
27 Tony Joyce