The document discusses the complexities and uncertainties in natural resource management and development research, highlighting the concept of 'wicked problems' that are difficult to solve due to their intricate interdependencies. It contrasts traditional approaches to development, which tend to be centralized and disconnected from real-world conditions, with strategies that embrace complexity through collaborative and adaptive processes. The emphasis is on the necessity of planning with uncertainty, fostering shared visions, and engaging in multi-stakeholder efforts to address these challenges effectively.

1. Dealing with complexity and uncertainty
In natural resource management
And other wicked problems’ initiatives
Ewen Le Borgne
EAU4Food LPA-CoP facilitation training workshop
ILRI Ethiopia, Addis Ababa
13-15 August 2012

2. Overview
1. Development (research) is mostly about
complexity… What is complexity?
2. What does development (research) too often
look like in comparison?
3. What are the implications of complexity for the
way we work? How to work around complexity?

3. 1. Development (research) is mostly about
complexity
Credits: Michael Heiss
…What is complexity?

4. 1. Development (research) is mostly about
complexity
Complex issues…
• Natural resource management,
• Climate change,
• Poverty,
• Service delivery,
• Social change…
• …are all complex…
• …they relate to…
…wicked problems
Credits: Julian Burton

5. 1. Development (research) is mostly about
complexity
What is a wicked problem?
A problem that is difficult or impossible to solve
because of incomplete, contradictory, and
changing requirements that are often difficult to
recognize. The term ‘wicked’ is used, not in the
sense of evil, but rather its resistant to resolution.
Moreover, because of complex interdependencies,
the effort to solve one aspect of a wicked problem
may reveal or create other problems.

6. 1. Development (research) is mostly about
complexity
Characteristics of a wicked problem?
Highly integrated Difficult or
impossible to
solve
Evolving over time
Going through
occasional Rooted in local &
abrupt changes global contexts

7. 1. Development (research) is mostly about
complexity – what is complexity?
Inter-
dependency
Credits: Harold Jarche

8. 1. Development (research) is mostly about
complexity – what is complexity?
Fractals /
patterns
Credits: Jakyakody200lk

9. 1. Development (research) is mostly about
complexity – what is complexity?
Unpredictability
Complex adaptive
systems
“Systems that have a
large numbers of
components, often called
agents, that interact and
adapt or learn.” Credits: Trojan Mice
Feedback loops Self-organization
Emergence

10. 3. What does development (research) too
often look like in comparison?

11. 3. What does development (research) too
often look like in comparison?
Obsessed with silver bullets
Short lived
Obsessed with
Imposed from scaling up
outside
Monitored blindly Centralized &
heavily
bureaucratic
Obsessed with change
Disconnected
from realities Uninspired (not our vision)
Credits: Howard Lake

12. 3. What does development (research) too
often look like in comparison?
Not prepared for change!!!
Not prepared for complexity!

13. 4. What are the implications of complexity
for the way we work?

14. What are the implications of complexity for
the way we work?
Plan with uncertainty
• Check your assumptions

15. What are the implications of complexity for
the way we work?
Understand
the bigger
picture
Credits: InfoNet

16. What are the implications of complexity for
the way we work?
Drive by shared vision and co-creation
• Visualize that wicked problem
•Motivate people around that bigger picture
•Connect forces and capacities
•Co-create an agenda for action
•Carry out joint activities
•Let people self-organise
Empower!!!
Credits: ILRI

17. What are the implications of complexity for
the way we work?
Know your network
• Institutions
•Individuals
•Interdependencies

18. What are the implications of complexity for
the way we work?
Embed your
work in the
context Credits: Strawberry Sue
•

19. What are the implications of complexity for
the way we work?
Know how to respond
•To simple, complicated,
complex and chaotic
problems and issues…

20. What are the implications of complexity for
the way we work?
Document and reflect!
Credits: Adam Cohn

21. What are the implications of complexity for
the way we work?
Connect all the nodes to the main grid
•Become the complex adaptive system
Credits: ILRI

22. What are the implications of complexity for
the way we work?
Multi-stakeholder processes can be great for this
•Recognising multiple knowledges
•Their contributions
•Their capacities
•Their needs
•Their biases
Credits: Valerie Brown

23. What are the implications of complexity for
the way we work?
But they
have to
work as
one
collective
Credits: Valerie Brown

24. More information
http://www.eau4food.info
e.leborgne@cgiar.org
The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.

25. Better lives through livestock
ilri.org