Slides from our Policy Network talk

1. UKIP and the Left Behind:
Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right
Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin

2. Why are we here?
Source: Pickup, Jennings and Ford

3. Why UKIP was a long-time coming
(and may have a long way to run)

4. Decline of the British Working Class, 1964-2012
Source: BES 1964-83; BSA 1984-12; class measured using Goldthorpe–Heath 5-category class schema

5. Rise of the Educated Middle Class, 1964-2012
Source: British Election Studies 1964-1983; British Social Attitudes 1984-2012

6. Class and educational divides in EU support...
Source: British Social Attitudes 1993-2012

7. Immigration divides us by class, education, and generation...
Source: British Election Study Continuous Monitoring Survey 2004-13

8. The working class feel more left out than ever before
Source: British Social Attitudes 1986-2012

9. What all this means:
UKIP are mobilising the “Left behind”

10. So who are the UKIP voters?

11. UKIP’s base: male, pale, stale, and struggling
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Class Education Gender Age Ethnicity
UKIP Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats

12. The Brussels Plus: Not just single-issue Eurosceptics..
63
44
74
32
25
20
50
19
9 10
34
13
10
20
29
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Euroscepticism: strongly
Eurosceptic
Populism: very dissatisfied
with British democracy
Immigration: asylum
10/10 important
Economic pessimism: 9 or
10/10
UKIP
Cons
Labour
Lib Dem

13. They are very unhappy about both parties’
performance on immigration and the crisis…

14. ....and very hostile to both parties’ leaders
2.1
5.4
3.6
15.2
10.7
8.8
5.6
17.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Blair Brown Cameron 10-11 Cameron 12-13

15. UKIP Support among Different Groups 2004-2013:
“Doubling Down” on the Left Behind
Strong
Eurosceptics
Weak
Eurosceptics
Europhiles
Populism - dissatisfied with democracy
Blair: 2004-7 15 5 0.6
Brown: 2007-10 12 5 0.6
Cameron I: 2010-11 20 5 0.4
Cameron II: 2012-13 38 15 1
Share of sample 14 18 21
Immigration - rate importance of asylum
10 out of 10
Blair: 2004-7 14 6 1
Brown: 2007-10 11 5 0.8
Cameron I: 2010-11 16 5 0.8
Cameron II: 2012-13 36 14 2
Share of the sample 15 16 11

16. Labour’s 2015 problem
72
6
17
71
7
21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Con0710 Lab1213
Con prev
Lab prev
LD prev

17. UKIP is recruiting mainly former Cons…

18. …from the dissatisfied groups Labour ought to be
reconnecting with

19. Labour’s post 2010 rebound is strongest where UKIP’s appeal is weakest

20. Labour’s 2020 problem
Seat Incumbent
1. Clacton Con
2. Rhondda Lab
3. Blaenau Gwent Lab
4. Kingston-upon-Hull East Lab
5. Eastington Lab
6. Knowsley Lab
7. Barnsley Lab
8. Aberavon Lab
9. Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymeney Lab
10. Doncaster North Lab
11. Liverpool Walton Lab
12. Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Lab
13. Great Grimsby Lab
14. Ashfield Lab
15. Bolsover Lab
16. Boston and Skegness Con
17. Cynon Valley Lab
18. Wentworth and Dearne Lab
19. Redcar LD
20. Houghton and Sunderland South Lab

21. Incumbent party, top 100 UKIP-leaning seats
17
18
14 14
9
2 2
6
4
8
1
0 0
2 2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Top 20 21-40 41-60 61-80 81-100
Lab Con LD

22. What we just said in far more detail…
@robfordmancs
@GoodwinMJ