This project aims to reduce vulnerability of agricultural production in Ethiopia to climate change through application of seasonal climate forecasting and best agricultural practices. The objectives are to 1) create national vulnerability maps, 2) compare seasonal forecasting methods and customize forecasts, 3) assess synergies of adaptation-mitigation strategies with agricultural plans, 4) verify best climate adaptation options, and 5) build institutional capacity. Key activities include vulnerability mapping, forecasting method review, community surveys, adaptation option testing, and trainings. Key deliverables are vulnerability maps, improved forecasts, best adaptation packages, and policy recommendations. Expected outcomes are increased preparedness for climate variability, use of forecasts in farming, alternative land use policies, and enhanced technology use for climate

1. An abstract of the Rockefeller Foundation Supported Project Under the Climate Smart for Rural
Development Initiative
Project Name : Reducing the Vulnerability of Agricultural production to climate change and
variability through application of seasonal climate forecasting and best agricultural management
practices
Grant number: 2010 CLI 304
Name of the Organization: Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research
Country: Ethiopia
Name of the Contact Person: Dr. Girma Mamo
Email:mamo_girma@yahoo.com
Telephone: +251-911-809500
Key Objectives
1. To scope climate change vulnerability and impact maps to a national level at least in two countries of
east Africa (a build on outputs from objective No. 3 of the first phase project)
2. To compare and build on the evolving methods of seasonal climate forecasts and customize the
contents of the existing climate forecasting approaches
3. To assess the synergies and tradeoffs among climate change adaptation-mitigation strategies and
agricultural development plans of the study area
4. To verify and scale out best bet climate change adaptation and mitigation options selected from the
ongoing project at selected farming communities
5. To build institutional/technical capacity of key partners through training, facility and communication
tools
Key Activities
1. Objective No. 1
 Adopt the vulnerability and impact mapping methodology from previous pilot project
 Collect the necessary biophysical and socioeconomic data for national level vulnerability and
impact mapping
 Preparation of individual spatial layers for each vulnerability indicator and conduct weighted overlay
analysis
 Construct vulnerability and impact maps
2. Objective No. 2
 Review and document forecasting methods currently in use (Analogue method) and alternatives
(statistical/Climate Predictability Tool and dynamical methods)
 Derive forecast products from the different methods
 Verify the forecast products (compute risk/uncertainty levels of the different forecast products)
 Recommend a single or hybrids of forecasting approach/s applicable for the identified vulnerability
classes
3. Objective No. 3
 Understand current agricultural development strategy of the country
 Select model community based watershed
 Undertake a detailed survey of existing farming practices and indigenous coping mechanisms
 Estimate baseline emission level and business as usual level by 2030 from the model watershed
 Analysis of potential of mitigation interventions
 Tradeoff analysis with respect to cost, feasibility, economic & community benefits of adaptation
and mitigation options
 Development of work plan for implementation, taking into account synergies of agricultural
development plan, adaptation and mitigation options
4. Objective No. 4
 Representative experimental site selection
 Packaging of adaptation and mitigation options under existing and projected climate change
scenarios

2.  Test and verify packages of adaptation options for existing conditions
 Draw agricultural development and research policy implications of the best methods
5. Objective No. 5
 Organize a series of trainings on land use evaluation & trade off analysis and advanced weather
prediction methods
 Build on the already developed communication tool from the ongoing project
 Install appropriate facility in farming communities
 Post graduate training
Key Deliverables
 National level vulnerability and impact maps
 Improved version of seasonal forecasting technique(s) in place
 Package of best bet adaptation options for the study area
 Policy recommendations for proper integration among development, adaptation and mitigation
plans for maximum advantages
 Institutional capacity of key partners built
Expected Outcomes
 Increased preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operation
 Localized farming communities began exercising seasonal climate forecast based agricultural
decisions
 Alternative policy decisions on land use system with respect to climate change mitigation and
adaptation
 Awareness level of project farmers raised on local development plans, climate change mitigation
and adaptation approaches
 Enhanced use of technologies by farmers, researchers and development support institutions with
respect to climate risk management