Presented by Matthew McCartney at the NBDC Stakeholder Forum, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, 5 October 2011.

1. Ethiopia: Drivers of change Matthew McCartney (IWMI) NBDC Stakeholder Forum 5 October 2011

5. Driver 3: Globalization World is increasingly interlinked (> integration of societies and economies) Provides opportunities as well as threats Locally: Increased demand for range of agricultural products Employment opportunities Disproportionately benefits those with assets Benefits will be greatest in areas with good infrastructure and communications Risk of increased marginalization of the poor Nationally: Greater opportunity for economic growth (induced by greater openess) Niche overseas markets (e.g. for teff/coffee/flowers) Higher risks associated with fluctuations in global financial systems Risk of domestic markets being flooded with world market commodities Foreign Direct Investment in land (and water). Oromia Area (ha) Nos. of projects Domestic 149,148 2,750 Foreign 1,444,308 1,001

6. Conclusions Many things are changing simultaneously. Complexity of managing water resources in a sustainable manner is increasing rapidly. Drivers and uncertainties outside the water sector have more influence than decisions made by “water managers”. Those outside the water sector must think about water, but this means increased awareness of water issues and their importance. Water is generally not high on the political agenda. Water development has massive potential to contribute to poverty alleviation, economic development and improvement of livelihoods. Rural water development strategies must deal with diversified livelihood strategies and increased pressures and risks. More integrated “joined-up” planning Informed decisions need information. A lot of uncertainty/mistakes arise from poor understanding and lack of data/information. SCIENCE IS NEEDED TO UNDERPIN GOOD DECISION MAKING “ Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss ” Ban Ki Moon

8. Thank you