Presented by Julia Naime, Researcher, CIFOR-ICRAF at COP28 side event "Is the looking glass half full or half empty? Transparency for climate discussions and reporting", 4 December 2023, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

1. Julia Naime
Researcher, CIFOR-ICRAF
Senior Advisor, Rainforest Foundation Norway
With: Niki de Sy (WUR), Cauê Carilho (CIFOR-ICRAF), Colas Chervier
(CIFOR-ICRAF), Martin Herold (GFZ), Arild Angelsen (NMBU)
Ensuring Transparency and Accountability of
forest policies: a Deforestation Diagnostics
Framework

2. Introduction
• Impact evaluations highlight how context affects policy impacts
• Yet, there is no synthesis of what factors hinder or improve the impacts
of conservation policies, i.e., how impact depends on context.
• The mantra ‘Context matters!’ has been repeatedly stated for why the
impact of forest conservation measures varies greatly across locations.
• The Global Comparative Study on REDD+ (GCS REDD+) aims to fill this
gap by developing and operationalizing the diagnostics approach to
address the key question:
Which policy measures are likely to work where to reduce deforestation, in a given
context?

3. Context matters!
Deforestation diagnostics tells you how it matters
Policies
P1 P2 P3
Deforestation
Archetypes
(context)
A1
A2
A3
Three elements in deforestation diagnostics approach:
1. Deforestation archetypes: defined based on historical deforestation (2000-2020), deforestation
rates (after 2015), drivers of deforestation (i.e., land use change) and deforestation risk.
2. Policies for forest conservation: 1) Incentives (e.g., PES, REDD+), 2) Disincentives (e.g., Protected
Areas, fines), and 3) Enabling measures (e.g., land titling).
3. Review of the evidence base: Rigorous impact evaluation studies examining heterogenous impacts
(46 studies in total)

4. Deforestation
archetypes in
Africa
Archetype
Core landscapes
Moderate landscapes
Old deforestation fronts
Persistent deforestation fronts
Recent deforestation fronts
Gradual deforestation fronts
Sparse forest landscapes

5. Deforestation
archetypes in
Africa
Archetype
Core landscapes
Moderate landscapes
Old deforestation fronts
Persistent deforestation fronts
Recent deforestation fronts
Gradual deforestation fronts
Sparse forest landscapes

6. Archetype
Core landscapes
Moderate landscapes
Old deforestation fronts
Persistent deforestation fronts
Recent deforestation fronts
Gradual deforestation fronts
Sparse forest landscapes
Deforestation
archetypes in Latin
America

7. Global mapping of the land use change drivers in the deforestation fronts
• Pasture is a
dominant driver of
deforestation in
Latin America
• Tree plantation
dominates
deforestation in
South-East Asia
• Slash and burn
and mining
activities
associated to
grass-shrubland

8. • Deforestation risk was
defined based on
accessibility and
agricultural
suitability (low input
agriculture).
Global mapping of deforestation risks of core and moderate forests

9. Revising the evidence base

10. Policies
Incentives Disincentives Enabling measures
Deforestation
Archetypes
(context)
Deforestation
fronts
++ ++ NA
Core and moderate
landscapes
- NA
Sparse forest
landscapes
- - NA
• Forest interventions achieve greater conservation results where forests are under higher
deforestation pressure or risk.
• For greater policy impact, the adequate targeting of policies to forest areas that are most under
threat should be prioritized.
• Heterogenous assessments is limited, it is still difficult to draw other valid lessons about how
and under what conditions interventions may be more effective.
Context matters!
Deforestation diagnostics tells you how it matters

11. cifor.org | worldagroforestry.org | globallandscapesforum.org | resilientlandscapes.org
The Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) and World Agroforestry (ICRAF) envision a more equitable world where forestry and
landscapes enhance the environment and well-being for all. CIFOR–ICRAF are CGIAR Research Centers.
cifor.org/gcs
THANK
YOU