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1
ENERGY POLICY
SOLUTIONS
HAL HARVEY
2
AMERICA’S ENERGY GOALS:
Energy Policy Solutions aims to find the policies that achieve these goals
AFFORDABLE
CLEAN
RELIABLE
SAFE
3
ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS
 Identifies the policies that can
deliver on America’s energy
goals most cost-effectively
 Establishes an analytically-
driven approach to reducing
emissions in an efficient and
economically viable way
 Provides the tools and
resources necessary to make
informed policy decisions
4
ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS
Our reviewers:
 Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
 Argonne National Lab
 National Renewable Energy Lab
 MIT
 Stanford
5
ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR
The Energy Policy Simulator measures the cost and emissions impacts of more
than 50 climate and energy policies.
It is unique in that it:
 Covers all GHG-emitting sectors
 Offers unlimited policy combinations:
users can adjust policy levers and
observe their impacts in real-time
 Is fully open-source; anyone can
download the model and view or
modify its data sources and structure
 Runs on free, publicly-available data
6
ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR
A web application visualizes model results in an easy-to-use interface
https://energypolicy.solutions/scenarios/home
7
MODEL FINDINGS
CLEAN POWER PLAN
Target: Reduce electricity-related emissions 32% below 2005 levels by 2030
Policy Settings:
 Coal Plant Retirements
 Industrial Efficiency Standards
 Renewable Electricity + Transmission
 Building Codes and Appliance Standards
 R&D
Clean Power Plan is relatively easy to achieve
8
MODEL FINDINGS
US 2025 EMISSIONS TARGET
Target: Reduce economy-wide emissions 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025
Policy Settings:
 Fuel Economy Standards
 Car Feebate
 Urban Mobility
 Electric Vehicles
 Renewable Electricity + Transmission
 Coal Plan Retirement
 Building Codes and Appliance Standards
 Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax
 Reduced F-gases
 Methane capture
 Clean On-Site Industrial Energy
 Industrial Efficiency Standards
 Forest Expansion
 Coal Efficiency Improvement
 Retrofitting
The U.S. 2025 emissions target is challenging, but doable
9
ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS
SCENARIOS
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
MILLIONMETRICTONSCO2e
EMISSIONS
BUSINESS AS USUAL
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030
10
ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS
SCENARIOS
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
MILLIONMETRICTONSCO2e
EMISSIONS
BUSINESS AS USUAL
CLEAN POWER PLAN
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030
11
ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS
SCENARIOS
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
MILLIONMETRICTONSCO2e
EMISSIONS
BUSINESS AS USUAL
US 2025 CLIMATE TARGET
CLEAN POWER PLAN
POLICY SOLUTIONS
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030
120
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
MILLIONMETRICTONSCO2e P O L I C Y S O L U T I O N S
EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
2013 2015 2025 20302020
LAND USE
BUILDINGS
ELECTRICITY
TRANSPORTINDUSTRYCARBONTAX
0%
100%
Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax
Reduced F-Gases
Methane Capture
Clean On-Site Industrial Energy
Industrial Efficiency Standards
Car Feebate
Fuel Economy Standards
Urban Mobility
Electric Vehicles Forest Expansion
Coal Plant Retirements
Renewable Electricity + Transmission
Coal Efficiency Improvement
Building Codes and
Appliance Standards
Retrofitting
13
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030
BILLION2012$
CUMULATIVE COSTS AND SAVINGS
Clean Power Plan
Policy Solutions
COSTS
Values are in inflation-adjusted 2012 dollars, discounted at 3% annually
from a base year of 2016. Assumes carbon tax is revenue-neutral.
SAVINGS
Savings by 2019 Savings by 2027
14
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030
TRILLION2012$
CUMULATIVE SOCIAL BENEFITS
Clean Power Plan
Policy Solutions
BENEFITS
Social benefits include only avoided mortality due to
particulates and avoided contribution to climate damages.
15
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030
TRILLION2012$
NET BENEFITS (ECONOMIC + SOCIAL)
Clean Power Plan
Policy Solutions
Values represent the sum of economic benefits (inflation-adjusted 2012 dollars,
discounted at 3% annually from a base year of 2016) and social benefits. Assumes
carbon tax is revenue-neutral.
BENEFITS
16
KEY MESSAGES
Carbon reductions can be done across the economy
at a relatively quick pace
This requires great policy design and implementation
Doing this properly can save hundreds of billions of
dollars
17
POLICIES THAT WORK
 Reward performance, not investment, being
wary of unintended consequences
 Set goals and empower market forces to drive
the best solutions
 Require consistent, predictable performance
improvements
 Set a long-term trajectory
These principals promote competition, accelerate
technology, and drastically cut costs.
18
THANK YOU
@HAL_HARVEY
@ENERGYINNOVLLC
HAL HARVEY
WWW.ENERGYINNOVATION.ORG

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Energy Policy Solutions

  • 2. 2 AMERICA’S ENERGY GOALS: Energy Policy Solutions aims to find the policies that achieve these goals AFFORDABLE CLEAN RELIABLE SAFE
  • 3. 3 ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS  Identifies the policies that can deliver on America’s energy goals most cost-effectively  Establishes an analytically- driven approach to reducing emissions in an efficient and economically viable way  Provides the tools and resources necessary to make informed policy decisions
  • 4. 4 ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS Our reviewers:  Lawrence Berkeley National Lab  Argonne National Lab  National Renewable Energy Lab  MIT  Stanford
  • 5. 5 ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR The Energy Policy Simulator measures the cost and emissions impacts of more than 50 climate and energy policies. It is unique in that it:  Covers all GHG-emitting sectors  Offers unlimited policy combinations: users can adjust policy levers and observe their impacts in real-time  Is fully open-source; anyone can download the model and view or modify its data sources and structure  Runs on free, publicly-available data
  • 6. 6 ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR A web application visualizes model results in an easy-to-use interface https://energypolicy.solutions/scenarios/home
  • 7. 7 MODEL FINDINGS CLEAN POWER PLAN Target: Reduce electricity-related emissions 32% below 2005 levels by 2030 Policy Settings:  Coal Plant Retirements  Industrial Efficiency Standards  Renewable Electricity + Transmission  Building Codes and Appliance Standards  R&D Clean Power Plan is relatively easy to achieve
  • 8. 8 MODEL FINDINGS US 2025 EMISSIONS TARGET Target: Reduce economy-wide emissions 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025 Policy Settings:  Fuel Economy Standards  Car Feebate  Urban Mobility  Electric Vehicles  Renewable Electricity + Transmission  Coal Plan Retirement  Building Codes and Appliance Standards  Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax  Reduced F-gases  Methane capture  Clean On-Site Industrial Energy  Industrial Efficiency Standards  Forest Expansion  Coal Efficiency Improvement  Retrofitting The U.S. 2025 emissions target is challenging, but doable
  • 11. 11 ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS SCENARIOS 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 MILLIONMETRICTONSCO2e EMISSIONS BUSINESS AS USUAL US 2025 CLIMATE TARGET CLEAN POWER PLAN POLICY SOLUTIONS 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030
  • 12. 120 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 MILLIONMETRICTONSCO2e P O L I C Y S O L U T I O N S EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS 2013 2015 2025 20302020 LAND USE BUILDINGS ELECTRICITY TRANSPORTINDUSTRYCARBONTAX 0% 100% Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax Reduced F-Gases Methane Capture Clean On-Site Industrial Energy Industrial Efficiency Standards Car Feebate Fuel Economy Standards Urban Mobility Electric Vehicles Forest Expansion Coal Plant Retirements Renewable Electricity + Transmission Coal Efficiency Improvement Building Codes and Appliance Standards Retrofitting
  • 13. 13 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 BILLION2012$ CUMULATIVE COSTS AND SAVINGS Clean Power Plan Policy Solutions COSTS Values are in inflation-adjusted 2012 dollars, discounted at 3% annually from a base year of 2016. Assumes carbon tax is revenue-neutral. SAVINGS Savings by 2019 Savings by 2027
  • 14. 14 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 TRILLION2012$ CUMULATIVE SOCIAL BENEFITS Clean Power Plan Policy Solutions BENEFITS Social benefits include only avoided mortality due to particulates and avoided contribution to climate damages.
  • 15. 15 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 TRILLION2012$ NET BENEFITS (ECONOMIC + SOCIAL) Clean Power Plan Policy Solutions Values represent the sum of economic benefits (inflation-adjusted 2012 dollars, discounted at 3% annually from a base year of 2016) and social benefits. Assumes carbon tax is revenue-neutral. BENEFITS
  • 16. 16 KEY MESSAGES Carbon reductions can be done across the economy at a relatively quick pace This requires great policy design and implementation Doing this properly can save hundreds of billions of dollars
  • 17. 17 POLICIES THAT WORK  Reward performance, not investment, being wary of unintended consequences  Set goals and empower market forces to drive the best solutions  Require consistent, predictable performance improvements  Set a long-term trajectory These principals promote competition, accelerate technology, and drastically cut costs.

Editor's Notes

  1. America has several goals when it comes to energy. It should be clean (as close to zero-emissions as possible, all the way from extraction through consumption), it should be affordable, it should be safe (resilient to cyber- or physical attacks), and it should be reliable (no unexpected blackouts or price jumps). Picture of dollar bill. Clean EV picture
  2. Image idea?
  3. Image idea?
  4. Jump into live walk-through of web app (or play walk-through video). About 4 minutes.
  5. BAU, CPP, red target, PS
  6. BAU, CPP, red target, PS
  7. BAU, CPP, red target, PS
  8. Changed font to Century Gothic. Changed EI Scenario to EI’s Policy Solutions. Capitalized the titles/labels. Changed policy titles to the names we use in our other materials/presentations.
  9. High upfront costs, but pay off enormously by late 2020s. Savings in operational expenditures exceed capital costs by 2022 in the CPP scenario, and by 2029 in the EI scenario. Highlight “capital” and “operating” . Red “economic costs”
  10. Economic + Social = Net
  11. We can reduce carbon across the economy relatively quickly This requires great policy design/implementation Doing this properly can save trillions
  12. Add PTW cover. Click in, not auto