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Energy for all will not cost the earth


                                           Dr Fatih BIROL
                                      IEA Chief Economist
                                           13 March 2012
© OECD/IEA 2011
The context: fresh challenges
   add to already worrying trends

    Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy
            and limited the means of intervention

    Post-Fukushima, nuclear is facing uncertainty

    MENA turmoil raised questions about region’s investment plans

    Some key trends are pointing in worrying directions:
              CO2 emissions rebounded to a record high

              energy efficiency of global economy worsened for 2nd straight year

              spending on oil imports is near record highs



© OECD/IEA 2011
Emerging economies continue
   to drive global energy demand

                                Growth in primary energy demand
                  4 500
          Mtoe




                  4 000                                                         China
                  3 500                                                         India
                  3 000                                                         Other developing Asia

                  2 500                                                         Russia
                                                                                Middle East
                  2 000
                                                                                Rest of world
                  1 500
                                                                                OECD
                  1 000
                   500
                     0
                     2010       2015      2020      2025      2030      2035


                          Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035,
                               with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth
© OECD/IEA 2011
Energy poverty is widespread
         Million people without electricity
         Million people without clean cooking facilities

                                       Sub-Saharan Africa                       China
                                                                                    8        423
                                                                                                           Rest of
                  Latin America           585       653                                                  developing
                                                                      India
                                                                                                            Asia
                  31
                        85                                                    289                  379

                                                                       836
                                                                                                         661




                                  1.3 billion people in the world live without electricity
                                   and 2.7 billion live without clean cooking facilities

© OECD/IEA 2011
Investment today is far from enough


                        $9.1 billion was invested in energy access in 2009



                               14%
                      22%                          Bilateral Official Development Assistance
                                                   Multilateral organisations
                                                   Developing country governments
                                     34%
                                                   Private sector finance
                     31%




                  Current investment relies heavily on overseas development aid


© OECD/IEA 2011
Giving modern energy to the world
   will not cost the earth



                                                               5.3 x more
                               2009




                  Energy for All Case
                                            Other Countries           Sub- Saharan Africa
                          2010-2030


                                        0       10            20        30          40           50
                                                                             Billion dollars (2010)


                        Investment needs to grow by more than five-times to $48 billion a year
                                       – half of which in sub-Saharan Africa
© OECD/IEA 2011
All sources of finance need to grow


                                           50
                  Billion dollars (2010)




                                                                                          Private finance
                                           40                                             Developing country governments
                                                                                          Multilateral development banks
                                           30
                                                                                          Bilateral official development assistance
                                           20

                                           10

                                           0
                                                       2009        Energy for All Case



                                                         Private sector investment needs to grow the most,
                                                but public authorities must provide a supportive investment climate

© OECD/IEA 2011
All fuels have a role to play

                           Additional electricity generation by grid solution and fuel in 2030



                  On-grid generation                            Mini-grid and off-grid generation
                      368 TWh                                               370 TWh

                     10%                                                    7%
            5%                               Fossil fuels                                           Solar
          6%                                 Nuclear                                     36%
                                                                   28%                              Small hydro
                                             Hydro                                                  Biomass
       14%
                                    63%      Wind                                                   Wind
             3%                              Solar                                                  Diesel
                                             Other renewables                          8%
                                                                           21%


                     A range of technical solutions using different sources of energy is required

© OECD/IEA 2011
Implications of modern energy for all


                                                       20                              40                Additional energy demand in the




                                                                                            Gigatonnes
                    Billion tonnes of oil equivalent


                                                                             0.7%
                                                                1.1%                                     Energy for All Case
                                                       15                              30                Additional CO2 emissions in the
                                                                                                         Energy for All Case
                                                       10                              20


                                                        5                              10

                                                        0                              0
                                                            World energy   World CO2
                                                              demand       emissions
                                                                2030         2030


                  Achieving modern energy for all would only have a negligible impact on
                                  energy security and climate change

© OECD/IEA 2011
Modern energy brings health benefits

                  Premature annual deaths from household air pollution and selected diseases

                             2.5
                   Million




                             2.0

                             1.5

                             1.0

                             0.5

                              0
                                   2008 2030      2008 2030      2008 2030      2008 2030
                                    Malaria      Tuberculosis    Smoke from      HIV/AIDS
                                                                  biomass

                         Clean cooking facilities would prevent the majority of deaths attributable
                                       to indoor air pollution from burning biomass

© OECD/IEA 2011
Concluding remarks

      In a world full of uncertainty, one thing is sure: rising incomes &
                  population will push energy needs higher
      Modern energy is critical to social and economic development goals
      Affordable and reliable modern energy for all by 2030 is achievable
                   Adopt a clear statement that modern energy access is a political priority

                   Mobilise additional public and private investment in universal access

                   National governments need to adopt strong governance and regulatory
                    frameworks and invest in internal capacity building

                   The public sector should leverage greater private sector investment where the
                    commercial case is marginal
      World Energy Outlook has highlighted energy access for a decade and
                  will continue to do so in WEO-2012
© OECD/IEA 2011

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Energy For All Will Not Cost The Earth

  • 1. Energy for all will not cost the earth Dr Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist 13 March 2012 © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 2. The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends  Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy and limited the means of intervention  Post-Fukushima, nuclear is facing uncertainty  MENA turmoil raised questions about region’s investment plans  Some key trends are pointing in worrying directions:  CO2 emissions rebounded to a record high  energy efficiency of global economy worsened for 2nd straight year  spending on oil imports is near record highs © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 3. Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand Growth in primary energy demand 4 500 Mtoe 4 000 China 3 500 India 3 000 Other developing Asia 2 500 Russia Middle East 2 000 Rest of world 1 500 OECD 1 000 500 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035, with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 4. Energy poverty is widespread Million people without electricity Million people without clean cooking facilities Sub-Saharan Africa China 8 423 Rest of Latin America 585 653 developing India Asia 31 85 289 379 836 661 1.3 billion people in the world live without electricity and 2.7 billion live without clean cooking facilities © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 5. Investment today is far from enough $9.1 billion was invested in energy access in 2009 14% 22% Bilateral Official Development Assistance Multilateral organisations Developing country governments 34% Private sector finance 31% Current investment relies heavily on overseas development aid © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 6. Giving modern energy to the world will not cost the earth 5.3 x more 2009 Energy for All Case Other Countries Sub- Saharan Africa 2010-2030 0 10 20 30 40 50 Billion dollars (2010) Investment needs to grow by more than five-times to $48 billion a year – half of which in sub-Saharan Africa © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 7. All sources of finance need to grow 50 Billion dollars (2010) Private finance 40 Developing country governments Multilateral development banks 30 Bilateral official development assistance 20 10 0 2009 Energy for All Case Private sector investment needs to grow the most, but public authorities must provide a supportive investment climate © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 8. All fuels have a role to play Additional electricity generation by grid solution and fuel in 2030 On-grid generation Mini-grid and off-grid generation 368 TWh 370 TWh 10% 7% 5% Fossil fuels Solar 6% Nuclear 36% 28% Small hydro Hydro Biomass 14% 63% Wind Wind 3% Solar Diesel Other renewables 8% 21% A range of technical solutions using different sources of energy is required © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 9. Implications of modern energy for all 20 40 Additional energy demand in the Gigatonnes Billion tonnes of oil equivalent 0.7% 1.1% Energy for All Case 15 30 Additional CO2 emissions in the Energy for All Case 10 20 5 10 0 0 World energy World CO2 demand emissions 2030 2030 Achieving modern energy for all would only have a negligible impact on energy security and climate change © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 10. Modern energy brings health benefits Premature annual deaths from household air pollution and selected diseases 2.5 Million 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 2008 2030 2008 2030 2008 2030 2008 2030 Malaria Tuberculosis Smoke from HIV/AIDS biomass Clean cooking facilities would prevent the majority of deaths attributable to indoor air pollution from burning biomass © OECD/IEA 2011
  • 11. Concluding remarks  In a world full of uncertainty, one thing is sure: rising incomes & population will push energy needs higher  Modern energy is critical to social and economic development goals  Affordable and reliable modern energy for all by 2030 is achievable  Adopt a clear statement that modern energy access is a political priority  Mobilise additional public and private investment in universal access  National governments need to adopt strong governance and regulatory frameworks and invest in internal capacity building  The public sector should leverage greater private sector investment where the commercial case is marginal  World Energy Outlook has highlighted energy access for a decade and will continue to do so in WEO-2012 © OECD/IEA 2011