Pathways to Decarbonization &amp; Digital Innovation in Transport: Subways and Urban Air Pollution

Marco Gonzalez-Navarro 2020 #Infra4Dev Conference: Decarbonizing Infrastructure www.worldbank.org/infra4dev2

Government & Nonprofit

Subways and Urban Air Pollution
Marco Gonzalez-Navarro, UC-Berkeley

Does the construction of a new subway transportation
system lead to city-wide air quality improvements?

What do we know?
• Positive automobile traffic and air pollution relationship has been well
documented (Chen et al 2016)
• Subways reduce vehicular traffic (Anderson 2014)
• Chen and Whalley (2012) studies subway opening and air quality for a
single city (Taipei)

Subway data
• Average number of stations opened 14
• Daily average ridership 18 months after opening 130,000
• Average city population 4 million

City level air pollution data: Palma, Spain

Research design
• We compare air quality outcomes before to after the subway begins
service in each city to causally estimate the impacts of subways on air
quality

Heterogeneous effects by initial air quality
Above median air pollution cities Below median air pollution cities
Coefficient estimate Coefficient estimate
Standarderror
Standarderror

Other dimensions of heterogeneity
• Subways with high levels of ridership reduce pollution more
• New subway openings reduce more pollution than expansions of existing
systems.

Estimated longer term impacts among high pollution cities
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
year 1 year 2 year 3 year 4

How much should we value these pollution reductions?
• Take 1: We rely on studies estimating the relationship between pollution
levels and infant mortality (e.g. Arceo, Hanna and Oliva 2016)
• In an average high AOD city, we estimate an improvement of 3.2μg/m3 in
PM10 levels ≈ saving 22.5 infant lives per year ≈ 43 million USD per year.
• Using a 5% discount rate and summing up 5 years of effects means this
health externality is valued at 195 million USD

How much should we value these pollution reductions?
• Take 2: Use the Global Burden of Disease Methodology: Maps between
levels of PM2.5 and mortality risk ratios for all ages.
• In an average high AOD city, we estimate an improvement of 1.7μg/m3 in
PM2.5 levels ≈ saving 500 lives per year ≈ 1 billion USD per year.
• Using a 5% discount rate and summing up 5 years of effects means this
health externality is valued at 4.5 billion USD

Conclusions
• Existing estimate of the effects of particulates on mortality suggest they
are sufficiently harmful that for initially high pollution cities (Above 0.36
AOD ≈ 28μg/m3 PM2.5 annual average) the air quality improvements are
economically important.
• The effects are large enough to justify subsidies for subway construction
and operation.

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Lightning Talk - Energy: The Economics of Storage and its Role in the Energy ...

Lightning Talk - Energy: How Much Did Feed-in-Tariffs Cost Ukraine Power Sect...

Lightning Talk - Energy: Green Hydrogen Transport Cost Assessment in the Cont...

Lightning Talk - Energy: How Can Smart-Grids Help for Climate Mitigation?

Lightning Talk - Energy: Decarbonizing India’s Electricity System

Lightning Talk - Energy: Cost of Transition from The Workers’ Perspective

Developing Country Case Study: Welfare Effect of Road Congestion Pricing in B...

This document discusses a proposed toolkit to pilot congestion pricing policies in cities. It begins by outlining the problems of traffic congestion in large cities and congestion pricing as a potential solution. It then describes how the toolkit would involve small-scale experiments using GPS data from drivers to measure how they respond to different congestion charges. The data would be used to simulate the effects of various congestion pricing schemes on citywide traffic. As a case study, the document applies this approach to measuring the impacts of peak-hour road congestion pricing in Bangalore, India. The results suggest the externalities of traffic in Bangalore's dense urban road network are moderate, resulting in only small time savings from optimal congestion pricing that are

Using EVs to Provide Ancillary Services: Regulatory Challenges

Electric vehicles have the potential to provide grid services by storing and delivering electricity, but regulatory challenges exist. EV batteries are increasing in size from 24 to 100 kWh, while daily driving uses only 15-20 kWh, leaving excess energy storage capacity. However, electricity market rules and network codes are designed for large conventional resources, not distributed storage from EVs. Adapting regulations and standards around data collection, charging infrastructure, and market participation is needed to allow EVs to provide flexibility services to energy systems and unlock multiple revenue streams.

Regulating Transport in the Digitised World: The French Experience