Modeling the Effects of Air Pollution Regulation on Biofuel Industry Development
1. 2 1 M a y , 2 0 1 3
C o l i n M u r p h y M . S .
P h D C a n d i d a t e , I n s t i t u t e o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
S t u d i e s , U C D a v i s
Current Research on Air Pollutant
Emissions from Bioenergy
2. 1 . CURRENT STATUS OF BIOENERGY IN CA
2. ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY
3. MULTI-OUTPUT SYSTEMS
4. MODELING COST EFFECTS AT NATIONAL SCALE
Overview
3. 5.8 TWh of in-state biopower production
17% of in-state renewable power
2% of full California power mix
SB 1122 adds FIT for 250 MW, SB 489, 594 improve net-metering
Current Biopower Capacity in California
* Includes: (a) LFG: 12 direct-use or CNG/LNG facilities; (b) WWTF: 8 heat or
pipeline application; (c) AD: 12 Direct-use heat or fuel
Biopower Facilities
Facility Type Net (MW) Facilities
Solid Fuel (forest, urban & ag) 574.6 27
LFG Projects (a) 371.3 79
Waste Water Treatment Facilities (b) 87.8 56
Farm AD (c) 3.8 11
Food Process/Urban AD (c) 0.7 3-5
Totals 1038 175
Solid Fuel (MSW) (mass burn facilities /
organic fraction only)
63 3
5. Current Solid Fuel
Biomass Power
Like politics, all biomass
is local. Feedstock and
technology combinations
reflect local conditions.
Many existing facilities
idled or inoperative.
May be opportunities to
repower or increase
output through
improved efficiency.
Mayhead G, Tittmann P. 2012. Outlook:
Uncertain future for California's biomass power
plants. Calif Agr 66(1):6. DOI:
10.3733/ca.v066n01p6
7. Overview
No silver bullets for exhaust aftertreatment.
Focus generally on combustion technology, to reduce
pollutants entering gaseous phase
Lots of interest in integrating CCS or
biofuel/bioproduct production
8. SCR Still the Standard
Orange County Sanitation District
Using SCR on biogas from WWTP, achieving ~7-8 ppmv NOx,
some reliability problems.
http://www.casaweb.org/documents/2013/03-ocsd_rothbart.pdf
Fresno Dept of Public Utilities
Gas turbines burning 60/40 DG/NG, achieving ~3 ppmv NOx.
http://www.casaweb.org/documents/2013/05-fresno_scr_turbine_hogg.pdf
12. Partial-Oxidation Gas Turbine
Partially oxidize NG at high pressure to generate
excess H2, which allows ICE operation under ultra-
lean conditions, to minimize NOx, <20ppm.
Demonstration project at San Bernadino WWTP.
http://www.casaweb.org/documents/2013/07-san_bernardino_mwd_-_claus.pdf
13. Oxy-Fuel Combustion
Use gas or gasified
biomass in pure-oxygen
environement to produce
highly-efficient
combustion and minimal
NOx formation.
CO2 can be recovered for
EOR or CCS
Clean Energy Systems
demonstration plants at
Kimberlina and Placerita
http://www.westcarb.org/pdfs_Lodi/Devanna.pdf
15. Biomass is Not Just Energy
Current research often emphasizes integrating
systems to take advantage of local synergies
CHP
Nutrient Reovery
Bio-Product Production
Biomass systems often struggle to be cost
competitive on a purely energy basis, coproducts
may be key to economic viability
16. Example – Dixon Ridge Farms
50 kW gasifier utilizing walnut shells (adding
another 100kW)
50 kW gasifier displaces:
20% of facility electricity demand
15% of propane demand for heaters
Biochar is incorporated into soil
Nutrient management
Carbon sequestration
N2O reduction?
18. Dairy Digesters
Currently in limited deployment for energy purposes
NOx permitting difficult
Some reliability concerns
Opportunities to better capture nutrients (N, P, K)
from effluent
Reduce burden on surface water
Displace fertilizer produced elsewhere
Additional revenue
20. Modeling the Effects of Air
Pollution Regulation on Biofuel
Industry Development
21. Geospatial Bioenergy Systems Model
Nationwide technoeconomic model
Feedstock: Forest residue, MSW, corn stover, energy crops
Biofuel demand: Based on county-level VMT
Scope: Nation wide, county-by-county basis
Biomass transport: Network model of road, rail and barge
Conversion technology: Multiple biochemical and
thermochemical pathways
Produces spatial model of where conversion facilities
locate and which feedstock sources they utilize
Produces cost curves for biofuel supply under
various market conditions
24. Next Steps
Improve site selection heuristic
Incorporate existing environmental policy
Improve feedstock production model
Competition with existing crops
Anecdotally – Air pollutant emission regulations
major obstacle to successfully developing a project
25. Cost Estimates
Cost factors for SCR and ESP systems on biochemical and thermochemical conversion
facilities. All costs are in thousands of 2002 dollars
• Costs modeled on EPA
guidance document for
various technologies.
• Costs are intended to be
reasonable proxies for
actual costs of achieving
BACT or equivalent, rather
than technological
proscriptions.
• Typical capital cost for a
biorefinery of this size:
$400-500 million.
28. Preliminary Results
About 1 cent/gge difference in average ethanol cost.
Less than that in California
Generally, very little response to the costs of air
quality
Most facilities are outside of nonattainment zones
Those that are, are uniquely positioned close to a market or
feedstock supply
Current model may be too location-agnostic
Next generation – adding state-by-state cost factors
29. For more information:
California Biomass Collaborative
Biomass.ucdavis.edu
UC Davis Policy Institute for Energy, Environment
and the Economy
Policyinstitute.ucdavis.edu
Colin Murphy
cwmurphy@ucdavis.edu
Twitter: @Scianalysis
Rob Williams
rbwilliams@ucdavis.edu
30. 0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
CO NOx SO2 PM THC
(lbs/MWh)
Chowchilla-Permit Chowchilla-Actual
El Nido-Permit El Nido-Actual
Madera-Permit Madera-Actual
Woodland-Permit Woodland-Actual
Ely,UK-Permit Ely,UK-Actual
Permitted and actual emissions for several solid fuel biomass plants.
Williams, R.B. (2005). Technology assessment for advanced biomass power generation - Final Report for SMUD ReGen program. University of
California, Davis. CEC PIER Contract 500-00-034.