TataKelola dan KamSiber Kecerdasan Buatan v022.pdf
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EIC stat report 2
1. +
Key China Education
Statistics for
international educators
A report for EIC Group China partners
November 2011
partners.eic.org.cn
2. Key China Statistics for international educators
This report was prepared for international university, college and
school partners of EIC Group China. The report covers major
education participation rates and domestic capacity statistics and
trends in China. Partners will find many of the statistics useful for
understanding the education market in China, and for planning
their current and future marketing strategies.
China is a complex and dynamic education market. The growth in
participation rates among school and higher education age
cohorts, in the years from 2000-2010, have been extraordinary.
Domestic capacity has also grown rapidly to accommodate
demand for senior secondary and higher education. Over this
period, Chinaās higher education system grew from 9.3 million
students to over 33 million students.
Changing demographics is changing market dynamics. With
rapidly shrinking school age cohorts, growth in higher education
participation for the 18-22 year old cohort from 24.2% to 40% in
+
2020, will only require a further 17% increase in higher education
capacity for school leavers. This is remarkably small compared to
the over 300% growth of the previous 10 years. The days of
significant āunmet demandā are over, with students better able to
choose and access domestic diploma and undergraduate
programs.
Nonetheless, the number of students going abroad to study has
been steadily increasing. We continue to see strong demand at all
levels for international education for most destination countries.
Overview is that those Partners that position themselves well to
meet the needs of students, who have increasing choice at home
and abroad, will continue to succeed in student recruitment in
China.
The focus of this Paper is to provide key statistics covering student
participation rates, domestic demand and capacity. We will
continue to publish further papers on some of the strategies and
opportunities for Partners positioning themselves for the
challenges ahead.
Chris Francis, Strategic Development Director
EIC Group
3. + ļ® Chinese students going
abroad for the first
time.
Year Number of %
Students Growth
1995 23,486 NA
2000 38,989 66%
2001 83,973 115.4%
2002 125,179 49%
2003 117,307 (6.3%)
2004 114,663 (2.7%)
2005 118,500 3.3%
2006 134,000 12.9%
2007 144,000 7.9%
2008 179,800 24.9%
2009 229,000 27.4%
2010 284,700 24.3%
2011 339,700 19.3%
4. + ļ® Chinese public
scholarships and self
funded students.
Year Number China Self Publicly
of funded funded funded
Students Scholarships %
1995 23,486 10,886 12,600 46.4%
2000 38,989 6,696 32,293 17.2%
2001 83,973 7,921 76,052 9.4%
2002 125,179 8,180 117,000 6.5%
2003 117,307 8,200 109,100 7%
2004 114,663 10,360 104,300 9%
2005 118,500 12,000 106,500 10%
2006 134,000 13,122 121,880 10%
2007 144,000 15,810 129,000 11%
2008 179,800 18,200 161,600 10.1%
2009 229,300 19,200 210,100 8.4%
2010 284,700 18,300 266,400 6.9%
2011 339,700 24,900 314,800 7.3%
Opportunities for recruiting students on
Chinese publicly funded scholarships are
limited. Scholarships are granted through the
Chinese Ministry of Education and a wide
range of public authorities primarily for
research degrees. Self funded students (or
those receiving merit scholarships directly
from institutions abroad) continue to
dominate the study abroad market.
5. + ļ® Domestic āGaokaoā university
entrance exam participation.
Year Number of Admitted %
Examinees
1977 5,700,000 270,000 4.8%
1980 3,330,000 280,000 8%
1985 1,760,000 620,000 35%
1990 2,830,000 610,000 22%
1995 2,530,000 930,000 37%
2000 3,750,000 2,210,000 59%
2001 4,540,000 2,680,000 59%
2002 5,100,000 3,200,000 63%
2003 6,130,000 3,820,000 62%
2004 7,290,000 4,470,000 61%
2005 8,770,000 5,040,000 57%
2006 9,500,000 5,460,000 57%
2007 10,100,000 5,660,000 56%
2008 10,500,000 5,990,000 57%
2009 10,200,000 6,290,000 62%
2010 9,57,000 6,650,000 69.5%
2011 9,330,000 6,750,000 72.3%
Admissions rates for students taking the national
university entrance exams has continued to rise.
In metropolitan centres such as Beijing and
Shanghai, admission rates for candidates is over
85% in 2011, leaving a very small pool of
students unable to gain higher education places.
6. + ļ® Notes on Gaokao
statistics
ļ® 1977-1980 high examinee numbers driven
by resumption of exams after Cultural
Revolution.
ļ® Participation rates in senior high school
increasing rapidly during this period.
ļ® Not all high school graduates take exam.
Statistics indicative of demand for
domestic undergraduate places.
ļ® Peak year in 2008 for absolute numbers of
examinees.
ļ® High school participation rate continues to
grow though school age cohorts in
significant decline.
ļ® Chinese Ministry of Education objective to
grow senior high school participation rate
of the 15-17 age cohort from 82.5% in
2010 to 90% by 2020.
ļ® Increase in demand driven primarily by
increase in participation in age cohort.
ļ® Age cohort declining reflected in reduction
in examinees after 2008, despite higher
participation rate.
7. +
Applications for graduate programs
via the national graduate entrance
examinations.
Year Number of Growth Enrolled %
Candidates Enrolled
2012 1,656,000 6.9% TBA TBA
2011 1,511,000 7.9% 495,000 32.8%
2010 1,406,000 12.8% 472,000 33.6%
2009 1,246,000 3.8% 415,000 33.3%
2008 1,200,000 (0.6%) 364,000 30.3%
2007 1,282,000 0.8% 390,000 30.4%
2006 1,271,200 8.4% 402,800 31.7%
2005 1,172,000 24% 324,940 27.7%
2004 945,000 18.5% 330,000 34.9%
2003 797,000 27.7% 270,000 33.9%
2002 624,000 35.7% 195,000 31.25%
2001 460,000 17.3% 110,500 24%
2000 392,000 22.9% 85,000 21.7%
Graduate places remains highly competitive. While there has been significant
growth in places and capacity, domestic provision has scaled up far more slowly
than for undergraduate places. Significant unmet demand remains in the
system with large number of high calibre candidates unable to obtain a
graduate place. International providers continue to be well positioned to grow
Chinese graduate student recruitment.
8. + ļ® Higher Education Students in
China.
Year Undergraduate / Masters Ph.D. Total
Junior College
Diploma
2000 9,097,300 301,200 9,398,500
2001 11,750,500 329,256 12,079,756
2002 13,751,150 500,980 14,252,130
2003 16,732,942 651,260 17,384,202
2004 19,898,833 654,286 165,610 20,718,729
2005 22,631,151 787,293 191,317 23,609,761
2006 25,380,151 896,615 208,038 26,484,804
2007 27,195,304 972,539 222,508 28,390,351
2008 29,252,148 1,046,429 236,617 30,535,194
2009 31,251,500 1,158,600 246,300 32,656,400
2010 32,209,760 1,279,466 258,950 33,748,176
2000-2010 was a period of
extraordinary growth for the Chinese
higher education system. Public and
private capacity rapidly expanded,
with extraordinary investment in
facilities and infrastructure.
9. + ļ® Participation rates in secondary
and higher education in China.
Year Junior Senior Higher
secondary secondary education
(12-14 years) (15-17 years) (18-22 years)
1990 66.7% 21.9% 3.4%
1995 78.4% 33.6% 7.2%
2000 88.6% 42.8% 12.5%
2001 88.7% 42.8% 13.3%
2002 90.0% 42.8% 15.0%
2003 92.7% 43.8% 17.0%
2004 94.1% 48.1% 19.0%
2005 95.0% 52.7% 21.0%
2006 97% 59.8% 22.0%
2007 98% 66% 23.0%
2008 98.5% 74% 23.3%
2009 99% 79.2% 24.2%
2010 100% 82.5% 26.5%
2020 100% 90% 40%
Target
Growth in secondary and higher education
has been driven by rapidly increasing
participation rates, more than by age cohort
growth. Ahead, with declining
demographics, participation rates will climb
to 40% by 2020 with only incremental growth
in higher education places.
10. +International students
coming to Chinaā¦.
China becomes a major destination
countryā¦.
Year Number of % Growth
Students
2000 52,150 NA
2001 61,869 18.6%
2002 85,829 38.7%
2003 77,715 (9.45%)
2004 110,844 42.6%
2005 141,087 27.3%
2006 162,695 15.3%
2007 195,503 20.2%
2008 223,449 14.3%
2009 238,184 6.6%
2010 265,090 11.3%
2011 292,611 10.4%
2011 Summary
25,687 international students in China on Chinese government scholarships.
ā¢ Major sending countries in order: Korea (66,442), USA (23,292), Japan
(17,961), Thailand (14,145), Vietnam (13,549), Russia (13,340), Indonesia
(10,957), India (9,370), Kazakhstan (8,287), Pakistan (8,516), France
(7,592), Mongolia (7,112) and Germany (5,451).
ā¢ 118,837 students on award (Bachelors, Masters & Doctoral programs) and
173,774 students on non-award programs.
ā¢ The Ministry of Education announced that by 2020, China intends to host
500,000 international students and become the largest destination for
overseas study for students from Asia.
11. +
Demographic decline
An example from Jiangsu Provinceā¦
The pipeline shrinks by 29.2% to 2015
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year 7 new 990,600 946,600 865,800 779,000 701,040
students
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year 9 1,213,500 1,115,200 1,024,300 962,800 914,000
graduates
Growth NA (12.87%) (9.88%) (1.64%) (3.3%)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year 12 449,700 522,400 499,100 513,100 486,400
Mainstream
Year 12 243,200 265,700 289,400 301,200 264,600
Vocational
Total 692,900 788,100 788,500 814,300 751,000
Jiangsu Province serves as a good example of the
demographic decline in school age cohorts. In the 5 years
from 2006-2010, the Year 7 cohort declined by 29.2%.
This cohort graduates in 2015 and faces less competition
than any other in history in a greatly expanded domestic
university system. Age cohort participation in higher
education in Jiangsu has already reached 40%.
12. +
Demographic decline
An example from Hunan Provinceā¦
The closing āunmet demandā gapā¦.
Hunan Students taking University Entrance Exams
2006-2010. Candidates vs. Admissions. (1,000s)
600
500
400
300 Admitted
200 Candidates
100
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Admission rates of Hunan students into higher
education 2006-2010
100.00%
80.00%
60.00%
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
13. Regional reports.
The statistics below outline the regional context of Chinese
education. Given that many Provinces represent a far larger
opportunity for international educators than the traditional
metropolitan centers of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, a
regional strategy is a mid-to-long term necessity.
The Report does not cover how many Chinese students are
recruited for overseas education from each Province or region or
into which destination markets. Currently, reliable figures for this
are not available, with no foreign Embassies publicly releasing
student visa statistics with a breakdown by Chinese geographic
region. Work with AEI, the British Council, Education USA and
other industry organizations to obtain greater understanding of
the regional markets you plan to enter.
+
The purpose of the brief regional profiles below is to offer insights
into the scope of the opportunity by region, rather than a detailed
strategy on how to undertake regional marketing in China. Each
Partner has differing recruitment needs, resources and
considerations when setting regional objectives.
At EIC Group China, we strongly encourage our Partners to visit
our regional offices and to join our major events held in March,
June and October each year across 17 key regions of China.
Beyond this, there are many solutions providers in both China and
abroad that can support online marketing and branding in
Chinese to create a ādigital solutionā to the regional issue. EICās
Partner Services unit also offers solutions for online branding and
marketing. Many Partners have internal staff and student
resources capable of supporting these efforts at low or no cost.
EIC will be releasing a paper soon on how to undertake low or no
cost branding efforts online in China.
Chris Francis, Strategic Development Director
EIC Group
14. + ļ® Sources of Chinese Higher
Education Students by Province
2010.
Province / Undergraduate Masters Ph.D. Total
Municipality / Junior College students students Higher
Diploma Education
students Students
Beijing 747,228 30,964 14,652 792,884
Tianjin 419,398 18,341 3,423 441,162
Hebei 1,596,100 75,796 11,769 1,683,665
Shanxi 1,036,313 49,184 7,573 1,093,070
Inner 754,542 27,094 4,378 786,014
Mongolia
Liaoning 1,124,484 54,482 13,153 1,192,119
Jilin 671,527 40,382 9,152 721,061
Heilongjiang 943,949 48,172 9,759 1,001,880
Shanghai 711,506 29,247 14,510 755,263
Jiangsu 2,332,012 79,167 16,069 2,427,428
Zhejiang 1,578,375 35,084 9,512 1,622,971
Anhui 1,410,782 63,953 10,270 1,485,005
Fujian 958,845 22,044 4,796 985,685
Jiangxi 986,470 40,345 5,961 1,032,776
Shandong 2,281,973 157,609 23,819 2,463,401
Henan 2,125,998 106,176 14,584 2,246,758
Hubei 1,495,347 90,927 19,444 1,605,718
Hunan 1,431,264 61,967 13,080 1,506,311
These statistics demonstrate where Chinese
universities are recruiting their own students. They
are particularly key for undergraduate recruitment,
showing that the bulk of domestic recruitment for
higher education is not in the major metropolitan
centres.
15. + ļ® Sources of Chinese Higher
Education Students by Province
2010.
Province / Undergraduate Masters Ph.D. Total
Municipality / Junior College students students Higher
Diploma Education
students students
Guangdong 2,294,357 30,932 7,344 2,332,633
Guangxi 865,168 15,264 2,648 883,080
Hainan 193,754 3,539 553 197,846
Chongqing 635,036 21,612 4,010 660,658
Sichuan 1,547,166 50,986 11,398 1,609,550
Guizhou 599,984 11,292 1,827 613,103
Yunnan 752,373 13,823 3,161 769,357
Tibet 52,923 973 130 52,026
Shaāanxi 1,142,056 58,362 11,046 1,211,464
Gansu 652,273 19,279 4,011 675,563
Qinghai 134,004 2,667 608 137,279
Ningxia 189,083 4,262 899 194,244
Xinjiang 525,613 11,647 2,586 539,846
Total 32,209,760 1,279,466 258,950 33,748,176
Again, these statistics reflect the origin of students,
not where they undertake higher education, which is
covered in the regional reports below. Thinking like
a Chinese higher education institution would require
identifying opportunities, partnerships and channels
to market into the major provinces covered in the
report. For undergraduate recruitment, targeting
students āat homeā is key to successful recruitment.
16. Regional reportsā¦
Beijing.
Population:19.612 million (12.567 million holding residence permits) (2010)
GDP: RMB1377.79 billion (2010)
Students: 2.687 million (2010)
Comprising:
Kindergarten: 277,000
Primary: 686,000
Junior Middle School: 328,500
Secondary Specialist / Vocational: 219,000
Senior Middle School: 216,500
Junior College Diploma and Undergraduate: 735,000
Postgraduate: 225,000
University Entrance Exam articulation rates:
2000:75%
2006:72.88%
2010: 89.7%
Year 7 students:
2001:166,174
2006: 90,722
2009: 105,930
Year 9 students:
2001: 149,442
2006: 124,250
2009: 101,811
Year 12 graduates (mainstream high school):
2001: 51,263
2006:78,037
+
2009:70,132
Undergraduates
2001: 340,284
2006: 554,702
2009: 577,154
Graduating higher education students (undergraduate/junior college diploma
cohort)
2001: 55,831
2006: 132,488
2009: 152,336
17. Regional reportsā¦
Shanghai
Population: 23.019 million (14.042 million holding residence permits) (2010)
GDP: RMB 1687.242 billion (2010)
Students: 2.8182 million (2010)
Comprising:
Kindergarten: 400,300
Primary: 865,800
Junior Middle School: 464,850
Secondary Specialist / Vocational: 157,600
Senior Middle School: 208,250
Junior College Diploma and Undergraduate: 609,700
Postgraduate: 111,700
University Entrance Exam articulation rates:
2000:70%
2006:80.4%
2010:85%
Year 7 students:
2003:127,500
2006: 108,793
2009: 109,300
Year 9 students:
2003: 180,400
2006: 112,607
2009: 100,000
Year 12 graduates (mainstream high school):
2003:77,600
+
2006:121,900
2009:87,600
Undergraduates
2003: 378,500
2006: 466,300
2009: 512,800
Graduating higher education students (undergraduate/junior college diploma
cohort)
2003: 71,200
2006: 110,500
2009: 126,900
